Becauseitgoestotheheartoftheissue I raisedaboutwhetherornotthoseleadersaftertheSecondWorldWarwouldhavebeenwiserintheirapproachtoit. Maybewe'vejustbecometoosmugandtooslowtoreadrealpolitic.
I thinkthat's exactlywhathappenedhere.
I thinkyouhavetogobacktothe 1990s tounderstandwhat's goingoninUkraine.
Therewas a bigdebateintheClintonadministrationaboutwhethertomoveNATOeastward, whethertherewouldbeNATOexpansionornot.
AndinsidetheClintonadministration, therewere a goodnumberofpeoplewhowereadamantlyopposedtoexpandingNATO.
Becausetheythoughtinrealistterms, theybelievedthattheRussianswouldseethisas a threat.
ItincludedSecretaryofDefenseBillPerry, whohassaidhethoughtaboutresigningfromtheClintonadministrationoverthisveryissue. Buttheserealistswereopposedby a goodnumberofliberals.
Andthisincludedthepresidenthimself, TonyLake, whowashisnationalsecurityadviser, RichardHolbrookand a numberofotherswhobelievedthatNATOexpansionwas a goodthing.
Theyhad a moreliberalmindsetandthoughtthatthiswouldhelppromotedemocracyandeconomicprosperityinEasternEurope.
ItwouldnotbethreateningtotheRussiansbecausetheywouldseeusas a benignhegemonandwewouldlivehappilyeverafter. Butwhathappenedistherealistslost, theliberalswon, andwestartedtoexpandNATO.
Wegotawaywith a bigtrancheofexpansionfirstin 1999.
AndAngelaMerkelhassaidthatthereasonthatshewasopposedwasbecauseshethoughtthatPutinwouldviewitas a declarationofwar. Soifyouthinkaboutithere, youhaveallthesepolicymakersandprominentindividualslikeKennedyinthe 90s.
AndthenyouhaveAngelaMerkelandNicolasSarkozyweresayingthisisnot a smartthingtodo.
AndBillBurns, who's nowtheheadoftheCIAandinApril 2008 wasthe U.S. ambassadortoMoscow, wrote a memotoCondoleezzaRice, thenthesecretaryofstate, basicallytellingherthatthisisthebrightestofredlinesandit's goingtoleadtounendingtroubleifwecontinuetopursuebringingUkraineintoNATO.
Sotherewere a lotofpeoplewhowereopposed, and I joinedthatbandwagonineffect, right, because I wrotethisfamousarticlein 2014 afterthecrisisinUkrainebrokeoutsayingthatitwastheWest's fault, ineffect, forexpandingNATOeastward. Butwhathappenedhereisthatwedoubleddownateveryturn.