Name: 【國際議題】日元為何如此波動？ (Why the Japanese Yen Is So Volatile)
Uploaded: 2024-08-27T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 10 min 23 s

程度副詞

We have just seen the biggest one-day move on the Nikkei 225 since 1987.

我們剛剛看到日經 225 指數出現了自 1987 年以來最大的單日波動。

情態副詞

對股票來說，這顯然是糟糕的一天。

A single summertime decision by Japan's central bank ended up triggering a panic.

日本央行夏季的一個決定最終引發了恐慌。

The stampede was so big that the meltdown just exploded in a massive pile of losses for everyone.

踩踏事件如此之多，以至於熔燬事件爆發後，每個人都損失慘重。

And at the heart of all this, the Japanese yen and a massive global unwinding of the so-called carry trade.

而這一切的核心，是日元和所謂套息交易在全球範圍內的大規模平倉。

Now that the dust has settled, everyone from New York hedge fund managers and investors to Japanese business owners is left with an urgent question.

如今塵埃落定，從紐約對沖基金經理和投資者到日本企業主，每個人都面臨著一個迫切的問題。

Do we need to rethink the role of the yen in the global economy?

我們是否需要重新思考日元在全球經濟中的作用？

The yen is one of the most important currencies in the world.

日元是世界上最重要的貨幣之一。

In the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, it's the third most traded, behind only the U.S. dollar and the euro.

在每天 7.5 萬億美元的貨幣市場中，它是第三大交易貨幣，僅次於美元和歐元。

Every single day, more than a trillion dollars' worth of yen exchanges hands.

每天都有價值超過萬億美元的日元易手。

One of the main reasons why it's so heavily traded is because you can borrow yen cheaply and put it to work elsewhere.

日元交易量如此之大的一個主要原因是，你可以廉價借入日元，然後將其用於其他地方。

That's because interest rates in Japan are so low thanks to what's been a pretty sluggish economy over the past few decades.

這是因為日本的利率太低了，而這要歸功於過去幾十年來相當低迷的經濟。

After booming in the 1980s, a combination of deflation, rising debt, and an aging population has suppressed growth in Japan.

在經歷了 20 世紀 80 年代的繁榮之後，通貨緊縮、債務增加和人口老齡化等因素共同抑制了日本的經濟增長。

So the central bank kept interest rates at rock bottom to encourage borrowing and spending.

是以，中央銀行將利率維持在最低水平，以鼓勵借貸和消費。

For years, interest rates were actually negative.

That kept yen on a steady, weakening trend which markets had come to rely on.

這使得日元保持穩定的疲軟趨勢，而這正是市場所依賴的。

That changed in March, when the rate was raised to 0 percent.

這種情況在 3 月份發生了變化，利率提高到了 0%。

Which may seem minor, but here's the thing.

這看似微不足道，但問題就在這裡。

When a central bank raises its interest rate at all, their currency tends to rally.

當中央銀行提高利率時，其貨幣往往會反彈。

For instance, the Federal Reserve embarked on their biggest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

例如，美聯儲開始了自 20 世紀 80 年代以來最大規模的加息週期。

By one measure, it soared to an absolute record.

根據一項衡量標準，它飆升至絕對最高紀錄。

As central banks around the world began cutting rates in the summer as inflation in some places began easing, the Bank of Japan chose to keep going in the other direction and hike its rates.

今年夏天，隨著一些地方的通脹開始緩解，全球央行開始降息，而日本央行卻選擇反其道而行之，繼續加息。

The explanation from the BOJ was that we're seeing here prices go up, we just grow up.

日本央行的解釋是，我們看到這裡的物價上漲，我們只是長大了。

There's a risk here that inflation could get out of hand in the future.

這裡存在一個風險，即未來通貨膨脹可能會失控。

Soon after, unexpectedly lackluster jobs data from the U.S.

不久之後，美國的就業數據出人意料地低迷。

sparked fears the Fed had waited too long to start cutting rates.

這引發了人們對美聯儲開始降息等待時間過長的擔憂。

And you can see that here in Wall Street's favorite fear gauge, the VIX.

從華爾街最喜歡的恐懼指數 VIX 就能看出這一點。

It's spiked to a level not seen since the pandemic.

它飆升到了自大流行病以來從未見過的水準。

The market blew up and worse was to come.

市場爆炸了，更糟糕的還在後面。

People are like, this carry trade, which seemed like the easy trade, is no longer.

人們覺得，這種看似簡單的套利交易，現在已經不再簡單了。

So you start exiting fast and it starts to be self-fulfilling, unwinds and unwinds and unwinds.

是以，你開始快速退出，然後開始自我實現，解套、解套、再解套。

And why are they contributing to volatility in financial markets?

它們為什麼會加劇金融市場的波動？

In short, they're a popular strategy of borrowing currency at a very low rate of interest, the yen in this case, and investing it in something that pays you a higher rate.

簡而言之，這是一種流行的策略，即以極低的利率借入貨幣（這裡指日元），然後投資於利率較高的東西。

For example, you go to a bank and they offer you a credit card at 1% fees, but you can borrow at 0% interest.

例如，你去銀行辦理信用卡，他們會收取 1%的手續費，但你可以 0% 的利息貸款。

You then borrow using that credit card and then use the proceeds to buy, say, a Google or an Australian bank stock, or put that money to work in some corporate bonds, for example.

然後，你用信用卡貸款，再用貸款所得購買谷歌或澳洲銀行的股票，或將這筆錢用於購買公司債券等。

Now, you might make a return from that trade because it's kind of like investing free money.

現在，你可能會從這筆交易中獲得回報，因為這有點像投資閒錢。

But if things go incredibly wrong, you'll lose money both on the stock side and then you have to pay back your credit company as well.

但是，如果出了令人難以置信的差錯，你既會在股票方面虧損，還得向信貸公司還錢。

Which is exactly what happened in August.

Popular carry trade bets include U.S. tech stocks.

最受歡迎的套利交易賭注包括美國科技股。

But right as this was all unfolding, a string of disappointing earnings from those companies sent their shares tumbling.

但就在這一切發生的同時，這些公司一連串令人失望的財報讓它們的股價暴跌。

And it all culminated in the great unwind, as we call it today.

這一切最終導致了我們今天所說的 "大鬆綁"。

The yen, which everyone had been selling to fund this carry trade, surged in value.

大家都在拋售日元為套利交易提供資金，但日元卻大幅升值。

All of a sudden, at the same time, people started selling everything that they had in order to cover those margin calls.

與此同時，人們突然開始拋售手中的一切，以彌補追加保證金的損失。

They had to pay for their losses somehow.

The yen triggered waves of volatility in global markets.

It's also acutely impacting everyday Japanese back home.

這也嚴重影響了日本國內的日常生活。

Here's something not a lot of people know.

Japan is home to the biggest army of retail currency traders in the world.

日本擁有全球最大的零售貨幣交易商隊伍。

And that really turbocharged the carry trade as we know it today.

這確實推動了我們今天所知的利差交易。

You could be a hairdresser in Shinjuku, cutting hair during the day and going home at night, firing up the computer and trading yen against a Turkish lira or the U.S. dollar.

你可以是新宿的一名理髮師，白天理髮，晚上回家打開電腦，進行日元對土耳其里拉或美元的交易。

Or you could be a pensioner trading stocks as a hobby.

你也可以是一名退休人員，把炒股作為業餘愛好。

88-year-old Shigeru Fujimoto, based in Kobe, began his amateur trading journey at age 19 while running a pet shop.

現年 88 歲的藤本茂（Shigeru Fujimoto）居住在神戶，19 歲時在經營一家寵物店時開始了他的業餘貿易之旅。

He started day trading using the internet at age 66.

他 66 歲時開始利用互聯網進行日間交易。

He's made about 2 billion yen since then, he says.

他說，從那時起，他已經賺了大約 20 億日元。

And experienced several market crashes, most recently following the BOJ's rate hike.

日本經歷了數次市場崩潰，最近一次是在日本央行加息之後。

Fujimoto-san thinks Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is in a difficult position.

藤本先生認為日本央行行長上田一夫處境艱難。

Elsewhere, one of the few bright spots in Japan's economic outlook has been tourism.

在其他方面，旅遊業是日本經濟前景中為數不多的亮點之一。

The weekend meant foreigners visiting and spending in the country got a lot more bang for their buck.

週末的到來意味著來訪和消費的外國人得到了更多實惠。

Yoshiko Ota has been the general manager at Kyoto's Towa Ryokan, a traditional Japanese inn, for the past 30 years.

過去 30 年來，Yoshiko Ota 一直擔任京都傳統日式旅館 Towa Ryokan 的總經理。

Most companies in Japan are small or medium-sized, and those in the tourist sector benefited from the appeal of Japan's culture and its weak currency to international visitors.

日本的大多數公司都是中小型企業，而旅遊行業的公司則得益於日本文化的吸引力及其對國際遊客的弱勢貨幣。

But a stronger yen is less appealing to tourists, and a higher interest rate makes it more expensive for companies relying on them to service their debt.

但是，日元升值對遊客的吸引力減弱，而利率升高則使依靠遊客償還債務的公司成本增加。

One of the biggest challenges in making sense of what's happening to the yen is understanding why it's happening now.

要弄清日元的走勢，最大的挑戰之一就是要明白為什麼現在會出現這種情況。

For the past couple of decades, Japan's economy has been sluggish and stubborn.

在過去的幾十年裡，日本經濟一直低迷不振。

Wages, prices, growth, they've all stagnated.

工資、物價、增長都停滯不前。

Wages rose by 5% in 2024, unseen in 30 years.

2024 年工資增長 5%，這是 30 年來從未有過的。

Inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, and so with growth finally emerging for the first time in decades, the last thing anyone expected was the BOJ to make any risky moves.

通脹率一直保持在日本央行 2% 的目標之上，是以，隨著經濟增長數十年來首次出現，人們最不希望看到的就是日本央行採取任何冒險舉措。

They were looking at prices, they were looking at economic data, and they said, this is data-dependent.

他們關注價格，關注經濟數據，他們說，這取決於數據。

That was the BOJ's explanation as to why they decided to hike rates.

這就是日本央行決定加息的原因。

After the chaos, the Bank of Japan actually came out to say that they wouldn't raise interest rates again if markets were unstable.

混亂過後，日本央行居然站出來說，如果市場不穩定，他們就不會再次加息。

What we've seen during this market crash basically is that what Japan does, what the Bank of Japan does, can have major implications for the rest of the world.

在這次市場崩潰中，我們看到的基本上是，日本的所作所為，日本央行的所作所為，會對世界其他地區產生重大影響。

In global markets, many experts are rethinking just how strong or weak the yen should be, given the uncertain path for interest rates in Japan.

在全球市場上，鑑於日本利率走勢不明朗，許多專家都在重新思考日元的強弱問題。

And that's to say nothing of the prospects for popular carry trade targets like the Mexican peso or Brazilian real, which face headwinds of their own.

更不用說墨西哥比索或巴西雷亞爾等受歡迎的套利交易目標的前景了，它們本身就面臨著逆風。

 For those back home in Tokyo or Kobe or leafy Kyoto, uncertainty prevails too.

對於在東京、神戶或綠樹成蔭的京都的家鄉人來說，不確定性也普遍存在。

字幕列表影片播放

【國際議題】日元為何如此波動？ (Why the Japanese Yen Is So Volatile)

massive

panic

impact

contribute