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  • Chinese soldiers preparing for battle.

  • This is what Beijing wants to show the world.

  • With each military drill, China is drawing ever closer circles around Taiwan.

  • China has a clear goal to gain control over the island.

  • China will surely be reunified.

  • Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

  • Yes.

  • It's a commitment we made.

  • The United States is building up its military presence in the region, and is practicing how to sink Chinese ships.

  • We're not going to come to an agreement over Taiwan.

  • Wait for the unification to be achieved, peacefully I hope, non-peacefully I dread.

  • But why are these two superpowers so fixated on Taiwan?

  • What's in it for China and the U.S.?

  • And how do people in Taiwan feel about it?

  • It's Taiwan's location that makes it a geopolitical flashpoint.

  • Taiwan has 23 million inhabitants, and its main island lies only 130 kilometers away from China's mainland.

  • These tiny islands right off the coast are also under Taiwanese control.

  • And Chinese military drills around the whole of Taiwan are getting bigger and more frequent.

  • In recent videos released by China's People's Liberation Army, Beijing has threatened to encircle the island.

  • It sees Taiwan as part of its territory, and says it's ready to use force if necessary to get it back.

  • We'll talk more about the history and Taiwan's status later.

  • For now, you need to know that in the late 1940s, there was a civil war in China between communists and nationalists.

  • The communists won and took control of mainland China.

  • And the nationalists fled to Taiwan.

  • That laid the groundwork for today's tensions.

  • The U.S. has an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan.

  • Since the late 1970s, it's recognized communist Beijing as the only legitimate government of China.

  • But it has informal ties with Taiwan, and is seen as the island's protector.

  • OK, let's go back to the map to understand why the U.S. and China can't quit Taiwan.

  • In some ways, Taiwan's strategic importance is about three choke points around the island.

  • To the west, there's the Taiwan Strait.

  • It's a key trade route for both Beijing and Taiwan, and also for everybody else.

  • Almost all the world's biggest container ships pass through here.

  • To the north, the Miyako Strait.

  • It runs between Taiwan and these Japanese islands.

  • And in the south, the Bashi Strait.

  • It runs between Taiwan and the Philippines.

  • For China, these two straits on either side of Taiwan are key strategic gateways to the

  • Pacific Ocean.

  • Taiwan is in the middle of the Chinese coastline, which is very important.

  • This is Victor Gao.

  • He's a former Chinese diplomat and vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank some say is close to the Chinese Communist Party.

  • Taiwan Island faces the Pacific directly.

  • And if Taiwan is occupied by a foreign country, for example, it interrupts the continuity of the Chinese coastline and also prevents the Chinese access directly to the Pacific

  • Ocean.

  • The U.S. says it has no troops permanently stationed in Taiwan, but the island plays an important role in U.S. strategy.

  • To understand why, let's look at the military bases in the region.

  • Here are some of China's main naval bases close to its coast.

  • And the U.S. has some of its key bases in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.

  • If you connect the dots, you'll see the U.S. bases form a chain.

  • Taiwan sits at the heart of what we call in the United States, the first island chain.

  • David Sax is an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in New York City.

  • In the past, he worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, which serves as the de facto U.S.

  • embassy on the island.

  • If you look at the first island chain, these are all formal treaty allies of the United

  • States or close partners in the case of Taiwan.

  • And with that the way it is, the United States can project power close to China's shores, protect its allies and its interests.

  • Conversely, it's very difficult for the Chinese military to project power outside of the first island chain and threaten the United States physically or our interests in the Indo-Pacific.

  • To strengthen this island chain, the U.S. is expanding military cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, which are also wary of what they see as China's expansionist goals.

  • For example, just last year the U.S. gained access to military bases in the north of the

  • Philippines, right next to the Bashi Strait, one of those Chinese gateways to the Pacific

  • Ocean we mentioned.

  • Here you can see American and Philippine troops conducting exercises in the waters nearby earlier this year.

  • They even sank an old Chinese-built ship that the Philippine Navy used in the past, a clear message to Beijing.

  • And obviously China is not happy about the U.S. island chain strategy.

  • Come on, we are not living in the 19th century.

  • We are not living in the imperialist country century.

  • Using this outmoded way of thinking, as if you can set up a chain to block, for example,

  • China from accessing the Pacific Ocean, it's ludicrous.

  • Beijing is rapidly modernizing its navy, in part to be able to break through the chain of U.S. allies.

  • For example, with the Fujian aircraft carrier.

  • Here it is on sea trials earlier this year.

  • It's China's third aircraft carrier and the biggest ship in the Chinese navy.

  • The number one objective here is to keep the United States out of the region during a conflict.

  • So what we call anti-access area denial.

  • Prevent the United States from being able to defend our treaty allies and partners.

  • So to sum up, Taiwan's location makes it essential to both sides as they try to gain the upper hand in the region.

  • But the rivalry is also about money.

  • Big money.

  • Economically, the small island has an outsize importance for both China and the U.S., even though neither officially recognize Taiwan as a country.

  • Both China and the U.S. have significant trade links with Taiwan.

  • And much of that business comes from just one company.

  • TSMC.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

  • It produces microchips.

  • Taiwan makes 90 percent of the most advanced ones in the world.

  • Both the U.S. and China are dependent on them.

  • And so is everybody else.

  • There's a good chance TSMC's semiconductors are in the device that you're using to watch this video right now.

  • They're in new cars, fridges, and fighter jets.

  • Everywhere.

  • They're needed to develop new AI models.

  • And U.S. leaders worry that losing Taiwan to China could permanently shift economic tides against them.

  • We don't assume that a region under Chinese hegemony would be open to U.S. trade and investment.

  • I think that China would reorder the region.

  • They want the United States to basically supply them with raw materials that are turned into manufactured goods in China and then sold all over the world.

  • There isn't really a role for the United States or other industrialized countries in that.

  • The Chinese economy is already larger than that of the United States if you use purchasing power parity.

  • China produced more than 30 million cars in 2030.

  • The Americans probably produced less than half of that.

  • So why should anyone believe they can have some benefit of picking a fight with China?

  • No, there is no benefit.

  • China does not look at Taiwan from an economic or commercial perspective.

  • So why is Taiwan so important to Beijing then?

  • To understand, let's dive back into history.

  • China lost control over Taiwan during what it calls the century of humiliation.

  • These caricatures of China being carved up by various foreign powers might explain why.

  • From the mid-19th until the mid-20th century, China was plagued by invasions and internal disputes.

  • This is important because that notion of humiliation still plays a big role in Chinese state ideology even today.

  • In 1895, Japan took Taiwan from China and made it a colony.

  • After World War II, the Allies forced Japan to give it back.

  • But at the time, China was in the middle of a civil war.

  • The government of the Republic of China, or ROC, was led by nationalists under Chiang

  • Kai-shek.

  • Mao Zedong led communist forces against them.

  • In 1949, the victorious communists marched into Beijing and established the People's

  • Republic of China on the mainland.

  • The defeated government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.

  • That's why there are two governments that call themselves China.

  • One on the mainland, the People's Republic of China, or PRC, and on Taiwan, the Republic of China, or ROC.

  • The PRC government in Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and says there's only one China, even though they've never actually been in charge in Taiwan.

  • Most of the world accepts this one-China policy, including the U.S.

  • They don't recognize Taiwan as an independent country.

  • Wait, so why is the U.S. supporting Taiwan then?

  • There's also a history to that.

  • After the civil war, the U.S. initially saw the nationalist government in Taiwan as the only real China, rejecting the communist government on the mainland.

  • U.S. soldiers were even stationed in Taiwan under a common defense pact.

  • The change came in the 1970s.

  • The U.S. sought closer relations with Beijing.

  • That meant closing the U.S. embassy in Taiwan and pulling out U.S. troops.

  • Still, informal ties persisted, like that de facto embassy.

  • And the U.S. still guarantees to sell Taiwan weapons.

  • But they have a deliberately ambiguous policy on whether they would defend Taiwan.

  • It's meant to prevent China from invading, and Taiwan from declaring independence.

  • But that strange limbo has been the status quo in Taiwan for decades.

  • And it's created realities on the ground.

  • Taiwan developed from a nationalist authoritarian regime into one of the strongest democracies in the region.

  • There are elections, a free press, and civil liberties.

  • Taiwan was first in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage.

  • This year, a progressive party was re-elected for a third term, vowing to maintain that tense status quo.

  • DW's Taiwan correspondent Yu-Chen Li can give us a sense of things on the ground.

  • Here in Taiwan, the atmosphere is very different from you might read in the headlines.

  • The tension has become part of daily life.

  • One key reason is that people in Taiwan have been living under the threat of the Chinese

  • Communist Party for many decades.

  • The majority of the Taiwanese prefer to maintain their status quo with China.

  • But how to do so is a rather polarized debate.

  • If China wants to bully us, at least we still have the U.S. and Japan.

  • They're our friends.

  • I've always been skeptical of America.

  • But we have no choice.

  • If we can't get stronger, have enough forces.

  • It's tricky.

  • We should have a friendly relationship with both of them.

  • It's always been like this.

  • Ever since the founding of the country, we've been caught up in this drama.

  • But one thing is clear for many Taiwanese, Taiwan's voice is usually drowned out.

  • Amid a U.S.-China rivalry, many feel that Taiwan is only a pawn in the game.

  • And no matter what comes next, the island should have the right and autonomy to decide its own fate.

  • But there's one more factor that stands in the way of that.

  • Taiwan represents something for both superpowers.

  • Taiwan has embraced the U.S. worldview, which promotes democracy and capitalism.

  • China is a one-party system and a socialist market economy.

  • And a major Chinese Communist Party narrative centers on Taiwan.

  • Remember the century of humiliation we mentioned when China lost Taiwan?

  • Well Chinese President Xi Jinping sees bringing Taiwan back into the fold as an important step in overcoming that humiliation.

  • This is part of the so-called national rejuvenation, a revival of the Chinese nation as a great power.

  • But with Xi Jinping, I think you did see some impatience.

  • Xi Jinping has clearly put himself forward as a leader of, you know, world historic importance.

  • He views himself in a very similar way, I think, to Vladimir Putin, that he's just not a run-of-the-mill leader.

  • He's transformative.

  • No one, no country, no single human being will be able to block the peaceful reunification of China or the non-peaceful reunification of China.

  • So we should all call on the United States, don't play with fire.

  • But for the U.S., supporting Taiwan also means keeping up key alliances in the region and promoting democracy.

  • If China were to invade and annex Taiwan, we would see that democracy extinguished and it could send chilling effects to democracies around the world.

  • You would have deep questions being asked in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines on whether they can rely on the United States for their security.

  • Because of where Taiwan is and what it represents, neither China nor the U.S. are able to back down.

  • And the rest of us are stuck watching the superpower rivalry play out.

Chinese soldiers preparing for battle.

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