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  • This missile struck Kharkiv, Ukraine, on January 2nd, 2024.

  • And immediately, something seemed off.

  • It didn't look Russian.

  • It was one of hundreds Russia fired over a five-day span and its largest air attack since invading.

  • But when experts in the U.S. government took a closer look, they found it eerily matched photos of missiles made in North Korea.

  • Russia had also fired dozens of these drones, which are made in Iran.

  • And cruise missiles like these, with wiring and turbojet engines, from China.

  • The appearance of these weapons in Ukraine isn't an accident.

  • They're a key way these four countries are working together.

  • And they're growing close enough that some in the U.S. are beginning to call them an

  • Axis.

  • That's Axis like the Axis Powers, who fought the U.S. and its allies in the Second World

  • War.

  • And the Axis of Evil that U.S. President George W. Bush, well, made up.

  • States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an Axis of Evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.

  • But I've been seeing this new Axis described in a lot of different ways.

  • There's the new Axis of Evil, the Axis of rogues, of evasion, even of outcasts.

  • I think the name that best describes these groups of countries is the Axis of Upheaval.

  • It's the big geopolitical shift that we've seen over the last several years.

  • So why is an autocratic mafia state, an Islamic theocracy, a communist superpower, and a reclusive socialist state teaming up?

  • And how much danger do they pose to the rest of the world?

  • The governments of CH sitten Iran, Russia, North Korea are very different states, but they do have a couple things in common.

  • They do have a bit of a rivalry for America and a little bit of a drawback is, in terms of censorship.

  • So they'm getting ready to take the reins.

  • The governments of China, Iran, Russia, North Korea are very different states, but they do have a couple things in common.

  • First, they're all trying to build their own spheres of influence.

  • When Russia was part of the Soviet Union, it controlled much of Eastern Europe and

  • Central Asia, largely thanks to its vast wealth, energy, technology, large military, nuclear weapons and seat on the powerful U.N.

  • Security Council. But after the Soviet Union fell, many of these countries left that sphere by joining the NATO alliance and European Union.

  • Ever since Vladimir Putin took power, he's been destabilizing and even invading countries who are considering doing the same.

  • Iran's Islamic regime, meanwhile, has wanted to become the most powerful in the

  • Middle East ever since it rose to power in 1979.

  • It used oil wealth to fund militias and amassed thousands of missiles and drones in order to influence and threaten its neighbors.

  • North Korea's first leader rose to power in the 1950s after a war split the Korean

  • Peninsula. And since then, he, his son and now his grandson have built a massive military and nuclear weapons arsenal that they threatened to use to conquer South

  • Korea. Finally, the Chinese Communist Party has been vowing to take over Taiwan since it rose to power in the 1940s.

  • It built itself into a superpower with vast wealth, a large military, nuclear weapons and a seat on the U.N.

  • Security Council. But it's expanded its ambitions to wield influence across all of

  • Southeastern Asia. The second thing these four have in common is that the U.S.

  • has been thwarting their plans.

  • It's been arming its allies to block these countries from expanding their influence. And they all hate it.

  • In many ways, the most powerful glue between those two countries is their shared animosity of the United States.

  • Andrea, Kendall Taylor is an expert on this new axis.

  • Despite sharing an enemy, these four states weren't really all that close until the last decade or so when the U.S.

  • began unleashing a powerful economic weapon.

  • Now, you've probably seen bits and pieces of this story over the last couple of years. I've been following it for about a year now, and it's been made a lot easier thanks to my Ground News subscription.

  • And I'm also super proud to have them on as the sponsor of this video.

  • Ground News is a website, a browser plugin and an app that's aimed to make consuming the news more transparent.

  • So they've got access to over 50,000 news articles and they have a bunch of cool, innovative tools that make understanding where that news comes from a lot easier.

  • I'd like to quickly show you how it works.

  • So about two weeks ago, this report came out.

  • So go to Ground News. And the first thing I look at is the coverage details.

  • This is the number of news sources covering the story.

  • Then below it is called the bias distribution.

  • This shows you where on the political spectrum these stories are being reported from. Below that, Ground News ranks their factuality.

  • So how trustworthy are these sources?

  • Finally, is this ownership tool showing you who owns the news outlets that are reporting on this? Below here, you can see all the different articles covering the story. So here's one from the Kyiv Independent.

  • It leans left, but has high factuality.

  • All you got to do is go to ground.news slash surge party.

  • That'll get you 40 percent off their vantage plan.

  • That's what I use. All those features are going to be unlocked.

  • I think if you'd like surge party, you like the news.

  • You'll really enjoy Ground News as well.

  • We share the same mission of making journalism more transparent.

  • Thanks again to Ground News for supporting surge party yet again.

  • I'll stick you back to the episode.

  • In the last few decades, the U.S.

  • has been increasingly placing what's called sanctions on its enemies.

  • Sanctions are a tool that the United States regularly wields to push back against actions that other countries take, but that obviously fall well short of military measures. Sanctions weaken America's enemies by basically blocking trade to that country until it stops doing what the U.S.

  • doesn't like. Sometimes the U.S.

  • alone refuses to trade with the country, but often gets its allies or even the whole

  • U.N. to also agree to stop trading with it.

  • And that can prevent a country from getting things it really needs.

  • To punish North Korea for its nuclear program, the U.N.

  • has placed sanctions that have led to severe shortages of energy, technology and food, contributing to deadly famines and crippling its economy.

  • Sanctions on Iran have blocked it from selling its oil, leaving it short of cash, while also preventing it from getting the advanced weaponry it needs to match its rivals in the Middle East.

  • Sanctions are one of the key reasons why these states began to work together.

  • Since the 1980s, Iran's been buying missiles from North Korea, and in the last decade, North Korea has been buying Iranian oil.

  • China has also been buying Iranian oil and trading with North Korea, which it views as a troublesome but useful ally.

  • But when Russia invaded Ukraine, it took their cooperation to a whole new level.

  • Speaking news, Ukraine under attack.

  • Ukraine woke to explosions around the capital, Kiev.

  • Two years since the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordered his troops to invade

  • Ukraine. The Ukrainian losses in comparison to their population are pretty significant. Putin is finished.

  • He's doubled down on everything.

  • This guy is losing.

  • Russia, I think, is literally running out of ammunition.

  • They're seeking some support and some ammunition.

  • Russia has used up huge amounts of ammunition, weapons and equipment in Ukraine.

  • And sanctions placed by the U.S.

  • and its allies have made it difficult for it to replace them.

  • Additionally, many Western countries have stopped buying Russia's oil, leaving it also short of cash.

  • Suddenly, Russia needs a lot of help, but very few countries are willing to give it any, except for three.

  • And it just so happens that Iran, North Korea and China all have something it desperately needs. That's why I made these cards.

  • Hopefully, they're an interesting way to show you what each country has to offer, because at the very heart of this new axis are transactions.

  • Russia convinced North Korea to begin sending it millions of rounds of ammunition and missiles. It also got Iran to send it missiles, plus thousands of drones.

  • Russia had to turn to these countries out of necessity.

  • It is very consequential and important what Russia is getting, but just as important is what Russia is having to give away in return.

  • Russia has become Iran's largest source of foreign investment, and it's now sending Iran very advanced weaponry like fighter jets and attack helicopters.

  • Russia is also sending more food and energy to North Korea, plus advanced technology that it can use in its weapons.

  • But neither state has helped Russia as much as China has.

  • It's been buying lots of Russian oil, injecting billions of dollars into

  • Russia's coffers. And it's sending Russia what's called dual-use products.

  • Those are things that can be used for both commercial or military products.

  • So while it's not accurate to say China is sending Russia weapons, many of these dual-use products are ending up in Russian weapons.

  • Like navigation equipment, jamming technology, jet fighter parts and even drone parts. In exchange, Russia has been sending China more sophisticated technology, possibly for things like submarines and missile defense systems.

  • By fulfilling each other's needs, Russia, Iran and North Korea are able to survive despite being sanctioned.

  • And all four are improving their ability to carve out spheres of influence.

  • A win-win-win-win.

  • Iranian drones and North Korean ammunition have helped Russia bog down

  • Ukraine's counteroffenses, while Russian weapons have bolstered Iran's defenses. And its technology is believed to have helped North Korea build more advanced ICBM missiles.

  • But while Russian technology and Iranian oil does help China, it's not involved in this axis to make trades.

  • There are certainly pragmatic, kind of tangible things that China is getting.

  • But more than anything else, I think it is China wants to build a world that it thinks is more favorable to China.

  • And in that pursuit, Russia is an extremely useful partner.

  • As China strives to become more powerful, the U.S.

  • is using its vast system of allies to contain it.

  • So backing these states is a way for China to distract and threaten the U.S.

  • in more places. And it's even using its seat on the Security Council to thwart the U.S.'s agenda.

  • It recently teamed up with Russia to block new sanctions on North Korea and block the U.S.'s call for a ceasefire in Gaza.

  • Could this axis survive without China?

  • I think it would just be far less impactful.

  • It's the resources, really, that China brings to this that makes this axis of upheaval so concerning.

  • The concern is that China could use this axis to undermine the entire U.S.- led world order, hence the axis of upheaval.

  • But when you think about what upheaval is, it really is acts designed to overturn an existing order.

  • And I think that's precisely what these four countries are trying to do.

  • They're trying to overturn the rules, the norms, the institutions that have underpinned the world that we live in today.

  • China, Russia, Iran and North Korea feel that those rules are being used to weaken them. So by teaming up, they could begin to build a new system based on how they want to rule.

  • They have that idea that there is no universal definition of democracy or human rights or the idea that no outside state should have the right to interfere in the internal affairs of another state.

  • Basically, code for the United States can't push democracy on human rights in other countries because that's undermining to other autocracies.

  • The risk for the U.S. is that they might convince other autocracies who agree to join their axis, perhaps even some states that are more neutral, creating a group large enough to compete with the U.S.-led order.

  • Andrea believes that competition is already beginning to spark violence.

  • We had a flare up in Armenia, Azerbaijan.

  • Venezuela has threatened to take parts of Guyana by force.

  • And certainly we have the conflict in the Middle East.

  • And I worry very much that it is in large part because we are moving towards this world where it's not just the U.S.-led order, but these two competing orders.

  • For now, this axis is far from being an alternative world order or even an alliance. Its leaders have been meeting each other more frequently and signing agreements, but they're not promising to defend each other, nor have they all met at the same time.

  • But by even offering a possible alternative to the U.S.-led system, this axis is already putting more pressure on the U.S.

  • to back its allies like Taiwan, South Korea, Israel and most urgently,

  • Ukraine, which this axis would like to see defeated.

  • All of these countries would like to see Russia win in Ukraine because then

  • Russia has demonstrated to the rest of the world that might makes right, that you can change borders through the use of force and the United States power, the power of its allies can be defeated.

  • It can be overcome.

  • And that the four of these states have figured out how to do it.

  • So why not join them?

  • All right. That's our episode for this week.

  • I hope you enjoyed it.

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  • We cover sports and geopolitics and we're publishing every two weeks throughout the fall. So I'll see you in a couple of weeks.

  • Thanks so much.

This missile struck Kharkiv, Ukraine, on January 2nd, 2024.

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