Name: 為什麼歐盟的關稅不會阻止中國電動汽車的發展？ (Why EU’s Tariffs Won’t Stop Chinese EVs)
Uploaded: 2024-09-19T02:55:23.000Z
Duration: 11 min 55 s

European imports of Chinese EVs surged from $1.6 billion in 2020 to $11.5 billion in 2023.

歐洲對中國電動汽車的進口額從 2020 年的 16 億美元激增至 2023 年的 115 億美元。

轉承詞

Though Chinese cars are still a small share of the total European car market, Chinese and Chinese owned brands grew from 1 percent of the EV market in 2019 to about 15 percent in the first half of 2024.

儘管中國汽車在整個歐洲汽車市場中的份額仍然很小，但中國和中國擁有的品牌在電動汽車市場中的份額已從 2019 年的 1% 增長到 2024 年上半年的約 15%。

EU needs EVs to meet ambitious climate targets.

歐盟需要電動汽車來實現雄心勃勃的氣候目標。

China is producing millions of EVs far cheaper than everyone else.

中國生產數以百萬計的電動汽車，成本遠遠低於其他國家。

But the sudden rush of Chinese cars into Europe has instead caused worries. We've heard about this globalization story that we have to integrate. We have to be free trade and so on.

但是，中國汽車突然湧入歐洲反而引起了擔憂。我們聽說過全球化的故事，我們必須融入全球化。我們必須實行自由貿易等等。

But that was easy to tell when China was not a big player and was not changing the rules of trade.

但是，在中國還不是一個大玩家，也沒有改變貿易規則的時候，這一點很容易看出來。

The European Union has responded by proposing tariffs of up to 36.3 percent. That's on top of the existing 10 percent already levied on all imports. A final decision is expected by October 30th.

對此，歐盟提出了高達 36.3% 的關稅。這是在對所有進口商品已徵收的 10% 關稅基礎上的額外關稅。預計最終決定將於 10 月 30 日做出。

Analysts say it is the highest profile EU trade case against China in over a decade.

分析人士稱，這是十多年來歐盟針對中國最引人注目的貿易案件。

Chinese EVs have several advantages, but one sticks out, government support. Chinese make no apologies about it.

中國電動汽車有幾大優勢，但有一點最突出，那就是政府支持。中國人對此毫無歉意。

That's our game. We're state capitalists.

這就是我們的遊戲。我們是國家資本家。

European countries have reportedly been divided on the issue.

據報道，歐洲各國在這一問題上存在分歧。

And some of Europe's own automakers, the ones the tariffs are meant to protect, oppose them.

而歐洲自己的一些汽車製造商，也就是關稅旨在保護的汽車製造商，則反對這些關稅。

The EU says its tariffs are not meant to block Chinese EVs, but instead level the playing field.

歐盟表示，徵收關稅並不是為了阻止中國電動汽車的發展，而是為了創造公平的競爭環境。

We're dealing with an economy in China where credit money is allocated by the state and not by the market.

在中國，信貸資金是由國家而非市場分配的。

And the state picks sectors that they want to promote.

而國家則選擇他們希望促進發展的部門。

And in that kind of economy, if you do that, you always get over investment, you always get over capacity, you always get over production. And then that overproduction gets dumped on the rest of the world. Chinese manufacturers can make a car for about $5,500, the cheapest a European can do, about $20,000.

在這種經濟中，如果你這樣做，你總是會投資過剩，總是會產能過剩，總是會生產過剩。然後，過剩的生產會被傾銷到世界其他地方。中國製造商可以用 5500 美元製造一輛汽車，而歐洲製造商最便宜的也要 2 萬美元。

That gap is explained by potential subsidies that the Chinese government is giving to its companies.

造成這一差距的原因是中國政府對本國企業的潛在補貼。

But also it's explained by higher economies of scale.

但這也是規模經濟效益較高的原因。

It's explained by lower labor costs and by the fact that when it's about electric cars, China, unlike the rest of the world, has already secured the supply chain for the batteries.

這是因為勞動力成本較低，而且在電動汽車領域，中國與世界其他國家不同，已經確保了電池供應鏈的安全。

The tariffs only apply to fully assembled EVs, not parts like batteries. China controls more than 80 percent of the world's battery manufacturing capacity, and cars made all over the world, including in

關稅只適用於完全組裝好的電動汽車，不適用於電池等零部件。中國控制著全球 80% 以上的電池製造能力，而全球各地生產的汽車，包括在中國生產的汽車，都將被徵收關稅。

Tariff rates vary based on how much help an automaker receives from the

關稅稅率根據汽車製造商從以下方面獲得幫助的程度而有所不同

Chinese government. Here, it is important to note that all this is being done according to rules set out by the World Trade Organization.

中國政府。在此，必須指出的是，所有這一切都是根據世界貿易組織制定的規則進行的。

There are 166 countries total and there are rules.

總共有 166 個國家，而且有規則可循。

So if China is subsidizing its auto industry and European countries say that help is giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage, it can impose tariffs to offset it.

是以，如果中國對其汽車行業進行補貼，而歐洲國家認為這種幫助給中國公司帶來了不公平的優勢，那麼中國可以徵收關稅來抵消這種補貼。

But first, it has to prove that China is actually breaking the rules and that that rule breaking is harming European companies.

但首先，它必須證明中國確實違反了規則，而且這種違反規則的行為損害了歐洲公司的利益。

It's a calculation of the amount of harm that's been done.

And as near as I can tell, the European Union has followed the rules.

就我所知，歐盟一直在遵守規則。

They also vary based on whether a company cooperatively discloses the subsidies it receives to the European Commission.

此外，還因公司是否向歐盟委員會合作披露其獲得的補貼而有所不同。

This is why the tariff on Tesla cars is a lot lower than those placed on its Chinese brand rivals.

這就是為什麼特斯拉汽車的關稅比其中國品牌競爭對手的關稅要低得多。

Chinese were a lot more generous to indigenous Chinese companies.

中國人對本土的中國公司要慷慨得多。

But even they are being tariffed at different rates.

但即使是這些產品，關稅稅率也不盡相同。

These tariffs could make it more challenging for Europe to meet its ambitious climate policy goals.

這些關稅可能使歐洲在實現其雄心勃勃的氣候政策目標方面面臨更大挑戰。

By 2030, it needs to reduce emissions by 55 percent below the levels they were at in 1990.

到 2030 年，它需要將排放量從 1990 年的水準減少 55%。

A report leaked earlier this year suggests the EU is not on track, to put it mildly. The bloc needs to double the pace of reduction to meet the 2030 target. I don't think the tariffs would be too meaningful or impactful in terms of slowing down EV growth.

今年早些時候洩露的一份報告顯示，歐盟並沒有走上正軌。歐盟需要將減排速度加倍，才能實現2030年的目標。我不認為關稅會對減緩電動汽車的增長有太大意義或影響。

But if the tariffs end up being too high and domestic or local European automakers can't offer the more affordable models, then we could see some delay if there's not enough models that are cheap enough or within the price point that consumers want to buy them.

但是，如果關稅最終過高，而國內或歐洲在地汽車製造商無法提供更實惠的車型，那麼如果沒有足夠便宜的車型或消費者想要購買的價位內的車型，我們就會看到一些延遲。

I mean, the administration is wrestling with this dilemma right now.

我的意思是，政府現在正處於進退兩難的境地。

I mean, it's the same thing with solar panels.

我的意思是，太陽能電池板也是同樣的道理。

The Chinese have something like 84 percent of the global market in solar panels. If you want the U.S.

中國的太陽能電池板約佔全球市場的 84%。如果你想讓美國

to convert to solar energy, the best thing you can do is bring in as many panels as you possibly can and install them everywhere.

要轉換成太陽能，最好的辦法就是儘可能多地安裝太陽能電池板。

And if you say Chinese panels can't come in, which we've done, you really slow down the transition.

如果你說中國面板不能進來，而我們已經這麼做了，那你就真的會放慢轉型速度。

The hold up to EV adoption in many markets like the U.S.

美國等許多市場採用電動汽車的障礙

and Europe is one, there's not as much public fast charging available, but two, there's not as many low priced EVs in those affordable vehicle segments where the majority of consumers buy vehicles.

與歐洲相比，一是沒有那麼多的公共快速充電設施，二是在大多數消費者購買汽車的經濟型汽車細分市場中，沒有那麼多的低價電動汽車。

And that's exactly what Chinese firms have been able to do, sell cars for as low as about $10,000 in the case of the BYD Seagull.

而這正是中國企業所能做到的，以比亞迪海鷗為例，汽車售價低至 1 萬美元左右。

Neither can American, nor Japanese, nor Korean.

美國人、日本人和韓國人也不能。

The U.S. has imposed a 100 percent tariff on all Chinese vehicles.

美國對所有中國汽車徵收 100% 的關稅。

By the way, it did that just unilaterally, not through the WTO process.

順便說一句，它只是單方面這麼做的，而不是通過世貿組織的程序。

But even a 100 percent tariff on a $10,000 car is still far cheaper than the cheapest EV sold in the U.S.

但是，即使對 1 萬美元的汽車徵收 100% 的關稅，也仍然比在美國銷售的最便宜的電動汽車便宜得多。

The European car makers, they've learned that they can make more money selling less cars.

歐洲的汽車製造商們已經意識到，少賣汽車也能多賺錢。

Last year, many of them posted records in terms of operating profits.

去年，許多公司的營業利潤都創下了記錄。

This strategy of increasing prices and producing less cars is good as long as you don't have a more competitive rival such as China.

只要沒有像中國這樣更具競爭力的對手，這種提高價格、減少汽車生產的策略就是好的。

At the proposed rates, they might not do much to stem the tide of Chinese imports. One analysis showed that tariffs would have to be at least in the 40 to 50 percent range, depending on the company.

按照擬議的稅率，它們可能無法阻止中國的進口浪潮。一項分析表明，根據不同公司的情況，關稅至少應在 40% 至 50% 之間。

The analysts said these rates would be unlikely and the EU would have to use nontraditional methods like tightening labor rights or cybersecurity requirements. The economic effects of tariffs are disputed.

分析人士說，這些稅率不太可能實現，歐盟將不得不採用非傳統的方法，如收緊勞工權利或網絡安全要求。關稅的經濟影響存在爭議。

Many economists argue they raise prices and reduce choice.

許多經濟學家認為，它們提高了價格，減少了選擇。

Trump has said repeatedly, you know, we're going to put tariffs on the foreign country. The Americans don't pay the tariffs, the foreigners pay the tariff. That's for the most part wrong.

特朗普曾多次表示，我們要對外國徵收關稅。美國人不支付關稅，外國人支付關稅。這在很大程度上是錯誤的。

There's a mountain of data to demonstrate that it's wrong.

Others say these tariffs will have a negligible effect on EV prices over the long term. There are also loopholes.

還有人說，從長遠來看，這些關稅對電動汽車價格的影響微乎其微。還有一些漏洞。

rules, Chinese automakers such as BYD are reportedly striking deals to build factories in Mexico, though there is uncertainty around the exact timing.

據報道，比亞迪等中國汽車製造商正在達成在墨西哥建廠的協議，但具體時間尚不確定。

This whole, it's a constant cat and mouse game.

整個過程就像貓捉老鼠的遊戲。

You know, you cut them off, they'll go somewhere else and make the product and ship it in from there. You cut them off, they'll move to a third country. So why is the EU doing this?

你知道，你切斷了他們的聯繫，他們就會去別的地方生產產品，然後從那裡運進來。你把他們趕走，他們就會轉移到第三國。那麼歐盟為什麼要這麼做呢？

Simply, it considers the European automotive industry crucial to its future. It employs millions of people and is responsible for nearly one out of every 10 manufacturing jobs.

簡單地說，它認為歐洲汽車工業對其未來至關重要。該行業擁有數百萬員工，幾乎每 10 個製造業崗位中就有一個是由該行業提供的。

Tariffs are a giant timeout that is just designed for one purpose in mind, buy some time while we regroup and confront this massive automotive manufacturing machine that China presents us with.

關稅是一個巨大的暫停，其目的只有一個：在我們重整旗鼓、面對中國這臺龐大的汽車製造機器時，爭取一些時間。

Over the last few decades, countries have leveled a lot of accusations against China, intellectual property theft, bullying trade partners and so on. Even this sudden surge of vehicle exports fits a pattern.

在過去的幾十年裡，各國對中國提出了許多指責，如竊取知識產權、欺凌貿易伙伴等等。即使是這次突然激增的汽車出口也符合一個規律。

And when their economy gets into trouble, as it is right now, they always do the same thing. They try to export their way out of it.

當他們的經濟陷入困境時，就像現在這樣，他們總是做同樣的事情。他們試圖通過出口來擺脫困境。

The EU is pretty much the last among major developed markets in the world to enact new tariffs against Chinese EVs.

在全球主要發達市場中，歐盟幾乎是最後一個對中國電動汽車徵收新關稅的市場。

This makes it harder for the Chinese to redirect exports to other countries. You can squeeze them out of the United States and all that production will just go somewhere else.

這使得中國人更難將出口轉向其他國家。你可以把他們擠出美國，但所有的生產都會流向其他地方。

What you got to do is get everybody together and all squeeze at once, make the Chinese eat the surplus.

你要做的就是把所有人都召集起來，同時擠壓，讓中國人吃掉剩餘的糧食。

China already makes one out of every three vehicles sold in the world.

全球每售出三輛汽車，就有一輛是中國製造的。

Industry after industry, they flood the zone.

They introduce massive capacity in a given industry.

它們在特定行業中引入了大量產能。

And when I first went to China in the 1980s, it was buttons.

上世紀 80 年代我第一次去中國時，中國的鈕釦。

They got really good at manufacturing buttons, better than everyone else the world. And they soon had a monopoly.

他們非常擅長製造鈕釦，比世界上任何其他人都做得好。他們很快就壟斷了市場。

In the United States, various trade groups have already labeled Chinese automakers an existential threat.

在美國，各種貿易團體已將中國汽車製造商視為生存威脅。

It's another proof that the European industry is not competitive yet.

這再次證明，歐洲工業還不具備競爭力。

In a vote in Brussels in July, 12 EU member countries reportedly voted in favor of the tariffs, four against, 11 abstained.

據報道，在今年 7 月布魯塞爾舉行的一次投票中，12 個歐盟成員國投了贊成票，4 個國家投了反對票，11 個國家投了棄權票。

Votes in favor reportedly included France, Italy and Spain, and abstentions included Germany, Finland and Sweden.

據報道，投贊成票的有法國、意大利和西班牙，投棄權票的有德國、芬蘭和瑞典。

The European Commission neither confirmed nor commented to CNBC, saying the vote was confidential.

歐盟委員會既沒有向 CNBC 證實，也沒有發表評論，稱投票結果是保密的。

They would be the beneficiaries of the tariffs, but they're worried that they have a large investment in China and tariffs put that investment at risk. So each company is going to decide which side of that line it's going to fall on. I mean, I don't envy them.

他們將是關稅的受益者，但他們擔心，他們在中國有大量投資，關稅會使投資面臨風險。是以，每家公司都將決定自己站在哪一邊。我並不羨慕他們。

German carmakers have substantial businesses in China.

德國汽車製造商在中國擁有大量業務。

It is Germany's third largest auto export market after the U.S.

它是德國僅次於美國的第三大汽車出口市場。

and U.K. The European country has a trade surplus with China in cars and in parts. On the other side, the French and Italian manufacturers are not exposed to China at all because they are more worried about their position in Europe, which is probably the most exposed to this increasing flow of

歐洲國家在汽車和零部件方面對中國有貿易順差。另一方面，法國和意大利的製造商根本不接觸中國，因為他們更擔心自己在歐洲的地位。

And though the Chinese market has become a lot tougher for foreign companies, it is still a highly desirable place to build cars for export.

雖然中國市場對外國公司來說已變得更加艱難，但它仍然是一個非常理想的汽車出口製造地。

Again, China is a huge battery producer and is responsible for much of the rest of the EV supply chain.

同樣，中國是一個巨大的電池生產國，並負責電動汽車供應鏈的其他大部分環節。

If an alien were to come down to Earth today and say, I'm going to build a great car company to rival Tesla, where should I put it?

如果今天有一個外星人來到地球，說：我要建立一個偉大的汽車公司，與特斯拉相媲美，我應該把它放在哪裡？