Name: 數學能幫助修復民主嗎？| Sam Wang | TED (Can Math Help Repair Democracy? | Sam Wang | TED)
Uploaded: 2024-09-22T23:32:16.000Z
Duration: 12 min 5 s

第二類條件句型

If you navigated here today, or you looked at a weather report, then you use simulations.

如果你今天在這裡導航，或者看了天氣預報，那麼你就使用了模擬。

程度副詞

A simulation can game through thousands or even millions of possibilities.

模擬遊戲可以有數千種甚至數百萬種可能性。

What if computer simulations could help us out of one of the most pressing problems of our time, a rickety democracy, here in the United States or around the world?

如果計算機模擬能夠幫助我們解決我們這個時代最緊迫的問題之一，即美國或全世界搖搖欲墜的民主呢？

I'm here to argue today that simulations can help us out of a lot of problems.

我今天在這裡要說的是，模擬可以幫助我們解決很多問題。

I argue today that simulations can help us preserve democracy in a time of crisis, in a time of rapid change, both technological and demographic, and indeed climate change, and tension, again, in the US and around the world.

我今天的論點是，模擬可以幫助我們在危機時刻、在技術和人口快速變化的時刻、在氣候變化的時刻、在美國和全世界再次出現緊張局勢的時刻維護民主。

I'm a computational neuroscientist, and I'm used to handling complex data.

我是一名計算神經科學家，習慣於處理複雜的數據。

My students and I study the brain, a highly complex object.

我和我的學生們研究的是大腦這個極其複雜的物體。

We take data and we make it simpler in order to understand it.

我們獲取數據，並將其簡單化，以便於理解。

We also build models to help understand how a brain might react.

我們還建立模型，以幫助理解大腦可能做出的反應。

And this kind of understanding, I argue, is useful in understanding democracy itself.

我認為，這種理解有助於理解民主本身。

想象一下神經元，我經常這樣做。

When neurons fire together in synchrony, and they fire impulses together, that can lead to a seizure.

當神經元同步發射脈衝時，就會導致癲癇發作。

Now imagine people doing something together.

現在想象一下人們一起做某事的情景。

When people start believing something in unison or acting in unison, that can lead to political collapse and it can lead to unrest and it can even lead to insurrection.

當人們開始一致相信或一致行動時，就會導致政治崩潰，導致動亂，甚至導致叛亂。

Computation and mathematical analysis can help explain strange phenomena like this, which are unfamiliar to most of us in our lifetimes.

計算和數學分析可以幫助解釋我們大多數人一生中都不熟悉的奇怪現象。

They can not only help explain, but they can also help prevent such events from happening, and maybe even help make repairs to democracy.

他們不僅可以幫助解釋，還可以幫助預防此類事件的發生，甚至還可以幫助修復民主。

And finally, and this is important, avoid accidentally causing a problem or making things worse.

最後，很重要的一點是，要避免意外造成問題或使事情變得更糟。

I would argue, too, that democracy ought to have several fundamental functions.

我還認為，民主應該具有幾項基本功能。

It should be representative of all of us.

If we change our minds, we should be able to get rid of the people who we think have not been doing a good job.

如果我們改變了主意，我們應該能夠把我們認為工作不力的人趕走。

And finally, democracy should be deliberative.

We should elect people who represent us, who deliberate with one another and help solve our problems.

我們應該選出能夠代表我們的人，他們應該相互商議，幫助解決我們的問題。

But there's a paradox in our democracy as it stands today, and let me explain to you exactly how that paradox might cause a problem.

但是，我們今天的民主制度存在著一個悖論，讓我來向你們解釋一下這個悖論究竟是如何造成問題的。

If you look at recent surveys, many of us are dissatisfied with politics.

如果你看一下最近的調查，我們很多人都對政治不滿意。

There are more independents than either Democrats or Republicans.

無黨派人士的人數比民主黨人或共和黨人都多。

Over the last few years, there are now nearly half of voters in the United States who call themselves independents.

在過去幾年中，美國有將近一半的選民自稱為無黨派人士。

That's more than Democrats and Republicans combined.

這比民主黨和共和黨的總和還要多。

Those independents also have highly reliable voting habits, voting with either major political party most of the time.

這些無黨派人士的投票習慣也非常可靠，大多數時候都會投給任何一個主要政黨。

Let me show you a simple simulation that illustrates how both of those things can be true, independents who are disaffected and yet partisan polarization.

讓我給你們看一個簡單的模擬，說明這兩件事是如何同時發生的：獨立人士心懷不滿，但黨派兩極分化。

And this helps illustrate how there could be a danger to our system under current conditions.

這有助於說明，在當前條件下，我們的系統可能會面臨危險。

In the simulation, look at this axis from left to right.

在模擬過程中，從左到右觀察這個軸。

This is an axis that's meant to represent liberals and conservatives from left to right, and you can see here voters, or if you can imagine, politicians, piled up in two great mountains.

這是一條軸線，從左到右代表自由派和保守派，你可以看到這裡的選民，或者如果你能想象的話，政客們，堆成了兩座大山。

And these two great mountains are separated from each other.

Very little overlap in issues or in cultural stances.

在議題或文化立場上幾乎沒有重疊。

There's something different about these two mountains.

This is one dimension that I've shown you, a single dimension from left to right.

這是我向你們展示的一個維度，從左到右的一個單一維度。

But look, here's a third mountain hidden, and that's because there's more dimensionality to voters than just the single axis that we've gotten used to in the last few years.

但是你看，這裡還隱藏著第三座山，那是因為選民的維度更多，而不僅僅是我們在過去幾年中習慣的單一軸線。

This third mountain of voters, in fact, has different stances, but yet they're forced to choose.

這第三座山的選民，其實立場各異，但卻不得不做出選擇。

They have to pick whichever major mountain is next to them and whichever mountain is closer they pick, and that's why we're loyal.

哪座大山在他們旁邊，他們就得選哪座，哪座山離他們更近，他們就選哪座，這就是我們忠誠的原因。

And when we're forced to choose between these two major mountains, we're all forced to act as if we're on that single dimension.

而當我們被迫在這兩座大山之間做出選擇時，我們都不得不把自己當成是在那個單一維度上的人。

Mathematical analysis has shown that one-dimensional dynamics, as you go along a single dimension, can lead to instability.

數學分析表明，一維動力學，當你沿著單一維度前進時，會導致不穩定性。

To get into the math a little bit, imagine animals.

為了讓數學更深入一點，請想象一下動物。

If animals all start moving in one direction, then that puts them at risk of getting into a stampede.

如果動物們都開始朝一個方向移動，那就有可能發生踩踏事件。

If we all start doing the same thing, if we all start behaving in unison, if enough of us do that, that can cause a political stampede.

如果我們都開始做同樣的事情，如果我們都開始採取一致的行為，如果我們有足夠多的人這樣做，那就會引起一場政治踩踏。

And a political stampede can lead to the election of extreme leaders and can lead to a collapse of democracy and maybe the loss of democracy in future elections.

而政治踩踏會導致極端領導人當選，會導致民主崩潰，也許會在未來的選舉中失去民主。

Well, I should say that reformers have come up with lots of ideas, and if you've been paying attention to this space, you've heard about some of these ideas.

應該說，改革者提出了很多想法，如果你一直關注這個領域，就會聽說過其中的一些想法。

But the problem is that we do not have the luxury of time.

但問題是，我們沒有那麼多時間。

It's an unstable time, and I would say that it would be a good idea for us to make some of these repairs in the next few years.

這是一個不穩定的時期，我想說的是，我們最好在未來幾年內進行一些這樣的維修。

And we have to get it right maybe the first time.

Like navigation on a smartphone, computation can help us identify paths that can move us forward reliably and without making too many missteps.

就像智能手機上的導航功能一樣，計算可以幫助我們確定路徑，使我們能夠可靠地向前邁進，而不會出現過多的失誤。

現在，我已經向你們介紹了獨立。

Now I want to tell you about some of the solutions.

現在，我想告訴大家一些解決方案。

Now, you might imagine that a good idea in such polarized circumstances is to form a third party.

現在，你可能會想，在這種兩極分化的情況下，組建第三黨不失為一個好主意。

But in fact, if we do that before attempting other reforms, that can backfire.

但事實上，如果我們在嘗試其他改革之前就這樣做，可能會適得其反。

And I'd like to show you a simulation that proves the point.

我想給你們看一個模擬，來證明這一點。

Here's a simulation based on analysis that my collaborators and I have undertaken.

下面是我和我的合作者根據分析結果進行的模擬。

This is now based on results from analyzing hundreds of elections.

目前，這是在對數百次選舉進行分析後得出的結果。

And we found that voters indeed do act as if they're piled up into two great mountains.

我們發現，選民們的行為的確就像堆積成了兩座大山。

In this case, I've shown the blues on the left and the reds on the right.

在這種情況下，我左邊顯示的是藍色，右邊顯示的是紅色。

And in this simulation, they vote under the normal rule that we've become used to, which is called first past the post.

在這種模擬中，他們按照我們已經習慣的正常規則進行投票，即所謂的 "得票最多者當選"。

And in this simulation, I've set up conditions so that out of 10,000 simulations, the blues win half the time, 5,000 times, and the reds win half the time, 5,000 times.

在這次模擬中，我設定了一些條件，這樣在一萬次模擬中，藍方贏了一半，即 5000 次，紅方贏了一半，即 5000 次。

And in the simulation, the fraction of the vote that they need in order to win is about 50 percent.

而在模擬投票中，他們獲勝所需的選票比例約為 50%。

These are the conditions that we're used to in a two-party system.

這就是我們所習慣的兩黨制的條件。

Imagine if we suddenly run a third-party candidate, and we put that third-party candidate in the middle.

試想一下，如果我們突然推出一位第三方候選人，並把這位第三方候選人放在中間位置。

The third-party candidate is here in the middle.

And I've set up the simulation to be a little bit closer to one of those peaks than the other.

我設置的模擬結果比另一個峰值更接近其中一個峰值。

Because that third-party is more sympathetic to those views.

However, there's something a little bit funny here, which is that now that blue party still needs 50 percent of the vote to win.

不過，有一點很有趣，那就是現在藍黨仍然需要 50% 的選票才能獲勝。

But now, because the third-party has divided the vote, now the reds only need 46 percent of the vote to win.

但現在，由於第三黨已經分化了選票，紅黨現在只需要 46% 的選票就能獲勝。

And now we have a situation in which out of 10,000 simulations, the blues win now only 2,000 times, the reds win 8,000 times, and this third-party doesn't win at all.

現在的情況是，在 10,000 次模擬中，藍軍只贏了 2,000 次，紅軍贏了 8,000 次，而這個第三方根本沒有贏。

是以，這隻會適得其反，對嗎？

This is what we call a spoiler effect, where paradoxically, the third-party has spoiled the chances of the party that is closer to them, which is presumably the opposite of what they were trying to accomplish.

這就是我們所說的 "攪局者效應"，矛盾的是，第三方破壞了與他們更接近的一方的機會，這大概與他們想要達到的目的相反。

Now, there are other solutions that, it turns out, are more likely to work.

現在，還有其他解決方案，事實證明，它們更有可能奏效。

In the United States, we're mostly represented in single-member districts, and so we have a particular legislator who represents us.

在美國，我們的代表大多來自單一議員選區，是以有一位特定的議員代表我們。

In recent years, there's been a move to stem this.

近年來，人們開始阻止這種情況的發生。

You may have heard the word gerrymandering.

您可能聽說過 "選區劃分 "這個詞。

Gerrymandering is the artful drawing of lines to disadvantage one candidate or a group, could be a racial group or a whole political party, and to eliminate competition.

所謂 "選區劃分"，就是巧妙地劃定選區，使某個候選人或某個群體（可以是種族群體，也可以是整個政黨）處於不利地位，從而消除競爭。

Computation can help identify such a plan.

計算可以幫助確定這樣的計劃。

By doing statistical analysis of the universe of possible plans, it's possible to show that a particular plan is an outlier.

通過對各種可能的計劃進行統計分析，可以證明某個計劃是異常值。

And when there's an outlier, then a court can intervene.

當出現異常情況時，法院可以進行干預。

When the court intervenes, it can dictate the drawing of a new plan.

當法院介入時，它可以要求制定新的計劃。

Voters who vote to change the system, to change the rules to establish an independent commission, can also take the power away from legislators, and they, again, will need computation.

投票改變制度、改變規則以建立獨立委員會的選民也可以從立法者手中奪走權力，而他們同樣需要計算。

However, this solution, as attractive as it is, is not enough.

然而，這種解決方案雖然很有吸引力，但還遠遠不夠。

And that's because those two mountains which I showed you are everywhere.

這是因為我向你們展示的那兩座山無處不在。

And no matter how much we redraw the lines, there's polarization across the nation.

無論我們如何重新劃線，全國各地都存在兩極分化。

And so the question is, OK, what else do we need to do?

問題是，我們還需要做些什麼？

字幕列表影片播放

數學能幫助修復民主嗎？| Sam Wang | TED (Can Math Help Repair Democracy? | Sam Wang | TED)

force

general

experiment

identify