We all know times are tough right now.

We've had almost 300,000 layoffs in tech in 2023, and we're currently at around 60,000 layoffs for this year of 2024.

And it's even worse for the junior developers and those trying to break into the industry.

You guys have to directly compete against the mids and seniors also looking for work.

And if you take a look at Reddit, many of these seniors are actually glad about this purging of newbies and boot campers and the Remember that guy?

So what do we do?

Do we give up?

Is it time to switch professions?

Is it all over?

Oh wait, there's also AI.

AI isn't taking our jobs, but it sure is a steaming slice of apple pie for pretty much every tech organization looking to free up menial work or to optimize any process AI plays well with.

But again, what do we do here?

Well, first, we need to think reasonably about it all.

That's what I want to do in this video.

Let's think about the landscape we're in.

What do we know we need to be doing?

And what can we add to this to give us an edge?

And how can we mute out all the extreme what ifs?

Here are four things.

Number one, you need to actually make sure you're good at what you do.

The days of check out my skill of building landing pages is over.

AI does that.

In fact, it can do it from a sketch my eight year old can draw up in five minutes.

This economy, it's a skill economy, not a demand economy.

Lots of supply, low demand.

Employers, they have the advantage.

There's a large pool to choose from.

They want skilled workers.

So you need to be spending your time perfecting your craft.

If this whole thing has made you sick of coding and you want to do something else, go for it.

If not, then you need to keep leaning in.

And this doesn't mean you can't be a great generalist, but whatever your specialty is, or whatever job you're trying to land or shift into, you need to be sure you can really nail down that technology.

This means if you primarily work around react, you should be now consuming the advanced react books.

If you're primarily working around Kubernetes administration, you should now be getting the CKA or the CKS certifications.

This deeper pursuit will make you more valuable in this economy.

And when things pick back up, you'll be the expert in that economy.

In addition, now's the time to revisit those computer science fundamentals and DSA concepts that carry over to literally everything you do or will be doing even in an AI future.

If it's your first time doing so, start with the grokking algorithms book and work through it.

It's a great start.

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Now back to the video.

Number two, this economy will turn around.

We just had our first rate cut.

Our first rate cut.

And there are two more expected by the end of the year.

Now there are no immediate results expected here.

In fact, historically, it's sometimes been the case that interest rates are cut because it expects economic conditions to worsen.

But in general, there will be some relief in this pressure that's balled up in our economy and businesses will feel at liberty to begin spending again or borrowing.

They'll be looking to tap into more customer money to grow and growth takes more work or workers.

I came across this tweet the other day by a Jesse Tinsley.

Here's what it says.

First, it's layoffs.

We've already been through that.

Second, unemployment rises, leading to rate cuts.

This happened today.

So this is like a week ago when we had our first rate cut.

Third, recruiting jobs explode in volume.

Next year, given some time for inflation to cool, this could easily happen.

Fourth, after recruiters get hired, everyone else does too.

And then fifth, multi-year hiring sprint.

It's at this point that you would feel pretty stupid having given up on tech.

In addition, you would feel pretty stupid to not be completely on top of your game skill-wise when this does happen.

That's why it's a good time now to get really good at what you do.

No more faking it.

This cycle repeats every five to ten Better buckle up and strap in. 2025, the year of the recruiter.

Remember, this isn't the first time the tech industry has had a hard time.

It's a cycle.

It just may be your first cycle.

So I think this is a good tweet, though I may be a bit more pessimistic on the word explode, but whatever.

But here's the question related to this.

In the other one, everyone is mulling over.

Will these new workers needed by companies be in the form of humans, us, or AI solutions?

If the economy does around and hiring picks back up, will they need us or will they need the AI solutions?

I think that's the big concern that many people have.

And the answer is, we don't know.

But what we do know, again, we need to think reasonably along the lines of what we can control.

What we do know is that one, AI is not ready for anything production yet.

Number two, AI is largely there for menial jobs that people hate to work anyway, like support, data entry, translation, retail checkouts.

Again, jobs that people hate to do anyway.

And number three, AI can compute well and crunch the numbers better than us, but they can't cover the entire spectrum of what we would call a software developer.

This role requires problem solving, soft skills, careful and precise solutions that can't be the product of a potential hallucination.

There's management of servers, infrastructure, and all things in between.

This is why software development, IT administration, engineering, whatever you do, is not going anywhere anytime soon.

What AI can do well is a small fraction of the value that you bring.

And at the same time, those building landing pages, those who are HTML and CSS experts, or those who aren't willing to put in the extra work needed to be in this field, are the very ones that the AI menial task monster is coming for.

Number three, try to embrace or at least adopt a positive outlook to a future with AI in it.

I just don't see this thing slowing down.

And if it doesn't slow down, then we're actually at a pretty big turning point in history, meaning we should not only see AI scooping up the jobs of bank tellers and taking the orders at Wendy's, but we should at the same time be seeing new innovations arising out of it, creating a host of new opportunities and jobs that will of course require the programming, problem solving, and technical skills of software engineers, because everything is software now.

Remember when Tesla had a recall and they fixed it by raising their suspension a hair and they did so by pushing out an update to everyone's Teslas?

You didn't have to return anything or Don't be an AI curmudgeon.

Learn about it.

Read the book, The Business Case for AI, and see how businesses are successfully using it in their everyday tasks.

And number four, don't sell yourself short when it comes to your own business value.

I've said repeatedly, you are the business.

You are in the business of creating software for customers.

Your current job can be seen as your main customer.

They're hiring you to do some sort of work that you're very good at.

Don't stop there though.

What else could you do?

Create a SaaS product and run your own business?

Start a consulting gig?

Offer AI training or AI consulting to companies out there?

Developers being out of work has created developers who take matters into their own hands.

We see so many examples out there of folks building apps and creating businesses out of them, or starting YouTube channels, or partnering with small three-person startups on some new innovative idea.

All this is to say things are changing.

Don't be this curmudgeon who rejects all things new and thinks things will continue in your favor.

We have to work with the things we know.

And we know this.

First, take time to practice the craft.

Get good.

Be valuable.

Grow your soft skills.

Second, realize that the economy will turn around.

It has to.

It just takes time.

And then third, because it takes time, you may as well embrace this new future, seize the opportunity, and change your thinking from an employee to a business owner.

You are the business.

The internet is a world of opportunity.

Good luck.

Actually, no.

Let's do a PS.

I got a lot of pushback on my past videos when I've tried to advocate for all the endless possibilities out there.

And it's mainly because people think opportunity equals opportunity to be someone's employee.

This is so narrow.

When you get out of this narrow thinking and you see the world wide web of opportunity and pair that with your skill of programming, the doors are much wider.

One example I'll leave you with.

He created a thousand square grid on his site and is renting out each square for a thousand dollars.

You pay a thousand and you get a square.

And that square leads people to your site or your product.

It also produces a good backlink.

Sounds crazy, but it's genius.

And he's had a handful of sponsors buy up spots already with more to come, I'm sure.

That's opportunity.

You need to find yours.

If you found this video helpful, give it a like.