Lai Ching-tei, also known as William Lai, was sworn in on 20th May amid strong threats from China and pro-independence statements. "...

I hope that China will face the reality of Taiwan's existence, respect the choices of the people of Taiwan and, in good faith, choose dialogue over confrontation." So of course, the presidential inauguration has been anything but smooth for Lai.

The Beijing regime responded to the arrival of the new president by nothing less than carrying out new massive invasion drills on Taiwan.

It was Beijing's unusual welcome and a clear warning to what they consider a president very much inclined to secession.

China says military drills encircling Taiwan designed to test its ability to seize power.

What you see right now on screen are the two biggest invasion drills Beijing has conducted in the last two years, this one from 24th May and one from August 2022.

With these exercises, the Chinese regime has encircled Taiwan by sea and air in what can be interpreted as terrible psychological warfare to threaten the Taiwanese and tell them that, if you take one step out of line, in a few hours you will become part of the People's Republic of China.

In other words, we are facing an action of subjugation.

What Xi Jinping's regime is doing is telling the Taiwanese that everything they have, democracy, autonomy, freedom of expression, security, is because Beijing lets them have it until they get tired of it and take it away from them.

And of course, with the Hong Kong precedent and news items like this, the outlook is not reassuring.

China drops peaceful reunification reference to Taiwan Now, with all these threats, which the Taiwanese have been putting up with for decades, you would think that the island, a fairly wealthy country with a GDP per capita, similar to that of South Korea, would put a veritable fortune into its military budget.

Don't you agree?

But what if I told you that this is not the case at all?

Take a look at this statistic.

South Korea, a country also under great threat, in its case from its northern neighbor, invests around 3% of its GDP in defense, while Taiwan barely exceeds 2%.

What's more, that 2% is only thanks to the increase in recent years.

And what can I say?

Given the current situation, it seems much more likely that China will try to do something serious in Taiwan than that North Korea will try to do something serious to its maximum tension.

I don't know, doesn't seem like a huge effort.

As a comparison, many of the Eastern European countries bordering Russia and Belarus are already spending more than 3% on defense.

This has led the VisualPolitik team to ask ourselves a very clear question.

Why on earth does Taiwan spend so little on defense?

Are they not concerned about the Chinese threat?

What is the explanation for this apparent incongruity?

Well, we've done our homework, and now in this video we're going to tell you all about it in order to get started.

It's always been the great obsession of Chinese leaders.

Since Mao Zedong triumphed with his communist revolution in 1949, this has always been a priority objective, to recover the only communist party, Taiwan, the island where the leaders of the Republic of China and the Kuomintang took refuge.

We've already talked about it many times on VisualPolitik.

Now, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, domestic problems and the trade war with the United States have further fueled the nationalist discourse.

And of course, if there is one thing that fuels Chinese nationalism above anything else, it is precisely the Taiwan issue.

Which is also one of the reasons why China is modernizing its armed forces by leaps and bounds.

Now, as I said before, with this growing threat, it would be reasonable to think that Taiwan is increasing its military spending, wouldn't it?

After all, we're talking about the fact that its very existence may be in danger.

Well, look at this graph.

As you can see, and despite a small recent rebound, the trend in Taiwan over recent decades has been to make a smaller and smaller economic effort in defense.

If we look at the data of the last decade, we might well think that defense has been far from being a priority in Taipei.

The result is that between 1996 and 2019, the percentage of GDP devoted to defense was cut in half.

Which, trust me, is easier said than done.

And things don't seem to be changing much either.

Increases in military spending have been announced, but not with much sign of change.

And this alone is something to make our heads explode.

Taiwan is threatened by China.

In recent years, this island has become a key strategic enclave for global industry thanks to its famous microchips.

And yet Taiwan does not seem to take defense particularly seriously.

Most military analyses of the state of its armed forces are clear.

Taiwan does not spend enough.

But to illustrate this further, let's take a closer look at the defense effort they are actually making.

Taiwan currently is spending $709 per capita on defense, an amount similar to countries without imminent geopolitical risks such as the Netherlands or New Zealand.

By comparison, Singapore spends about $2,200 per capita, and Israel almost $3,000.

So you see, with the data in hand, it seems that Washington is more concerned about the security of the island than the Taiwanese government.

Strange, don't you think?

And remember, we're not the only ones to have noticed.

The United States has been urging them for years to redouble their efforts in order to be able to face a Chinese invasion when the time comes, a scenario that seems less and less unlikely.

And do you know something even stranger?

Contrary to many other countries, public opinion in Taiwan is mostly in favor of increasing military spending.

To reach this 3% of GDP in defense in 2023, $6.6 billion more would have had to be spent than was actually spent.

But then, if the threat exists, and Taiwanese society supports it, why does the defense budget of this island seem to be so low?

Well, let's find out.

False sense of security?

One question, have you ever considered what the US would do if China were to attack Taiwan?

Well, those of you who think that Uncle Sam would definitely defend Taipei, congratulations!

You think the same as the Taiwanese government.

This is no joke.

It's a sentiment that may be a long way toward explaining why Taiwan's defense spending is not higher.

But what if I told you that there is a huge grey area in that interpretation?

To begin with, in terms of defense, Taiwan-US relations are built through so-called strategic ambiguity.

In other words, the Americans neither confirm nor deny that they would go out to protect the Taiwanese in the event of a Chinese invasion.

There is no protection agreement and there is no defensive umbrella or anything of the sort.

This is a totally different situation from what is happening in South Korea, for example.

The only thing the Taiwanese have today, beyond the support of Joe Biden, who has said several times that he would defend Taiwan, is perhaps an unpublished communication of intent.

If Biden does not remain in the White House and another, less committed president arrives in the future, Taipei would have virtually nothing.

And you may ask, how is it possible that what is probably one of America's most threatened allies is not under any umbrella of protection?

Well, I'm guessing you can already imagine where this is going, China.

To begin with, Taiwan is not recognized as a state by Washington, which recognizes only one China and since 1979 that is the People's Republic of China.

Remember that Taiwan has never proclaimed its independence.

That alone greatly limits Washington's options to begin with.

That's far from the only reason.

As you know, over the years China has been gaining more and more ground economically to become an export powerhouse on which the supply chains of almost the entire world depend.

This in itself is Beijing's greatest source of protection and also its main bargaining chip.

If the US goes too far with Taiwan, then China could hit the US economy very hard.

And don't even ask me what would happen to the European Union and other allies of the West in Asia that are heavily dependent on trade with Beijing.

The catastrophe would be gigantic.

Now, of course, this is no secret.

What's more, there are already precedents of Washington making decisions contrary to Taipei's interests so as to not upset China.

Do you want an example?

Let's go back to 2001.

That year, as you all know, the 9-11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York took place, and George Bush then began to build an alliance to fight global terrorism, the famous War on Terror.

At that time, Taiwan was on the verge of closing a deal to buy American F-16 fighters.

And you know what happened?

Bush had to delay the sale of these fighters to facilitate China collaborating in the anti-jihadist alliance, for example, with intelligence information.

So off to a great start.

When it comes down to it, the United States puts its own interests before those of Taiwan's defense.

At least that is what some past events show us.

And it doesn't end there.

Added to this are the constant delays by the United States in delivering artillery, sea defense systems or missiles to Taiwan.

To give you an idea, the upgrade of the F-16 and delivery of AGM-154 air-to-ground missiles was delayed by more than a decade.

In fact, the backlog in arms deliveries is so large that, according to estimates, there is already about $19 billion in equipment awaiting delivery, an amount greater even than Taiwan's entire military budget in 2023.

And if we focus only on the expenditure items aimed at buying equipment, we are talking about quite a few years of military spending.

As you can imagine, this discourages the Taiwanese government from buying more weapons from the United States.

So instead of spending on contracts that pile up gathering dust in some bottom drawer, that money could be spent on other things.

Or saved, don't you agree?

And of course, many of you will think, well, if the United States has a bottleneck, or any other problem delivering weapons to Taipei, then they should just buy them from another country, right?

In the end, there are many other countries that would be happy to feed their defense industry.

The United Kingdom, France, Israel, South Korea.

In fact, some, like France, occasionally sign a contract here and there, and in the early 1990s, even sold Mirage fighters to Taiwan.

In other words, Washington has not been, and should not be the exclusive supplier, and perhaps not even the main one.

And if you think so, you are not wrong.

That would be ideal under normal circumstances.

The problem is that the circumstances are not normal.

Remember that we are talking about a country that is not recognized as a state by almost anyone and whose weapons, if used, would surely be used in a hypothetical conflict with China.

So you can imagine what would happen if suddenly the Europeans or the South Koreans started selling arms to Taiwan left and right.

China would be furious and take action.

And don't forget that we're talking about a superpower that has more and more political, military and, above all, economic influence.

And if many of the delays in US arms deliveries are already due to avoiding confrontation with China, despite the US's status, imagine what would happen with a country like South Korea.

For example, Seoul exports almost a quarter of everything it produces to the Asian giant.

So let me tell you, they wouldn't dream of undertaking such an adventure.

What's more, the US military industry would not be amused if Taiwan suddenly turned its millions to other manufacturers.

And of course, if there is one thing Taipei does not want, it's to lose sway in Washington.

Well, with this in mind, and with the majority in Taiwan believing that in the end the United States would rush to save them in the event of invasion, you have the answer.

Why should I put money into arms?

And why should I look for new suppliers?

Now, hold on a minute, because it doesn't end there.

The United States and the countries that wary of selling arms to Taiwan are not the only ones responsible for Taipei's low defense spending.

Evidently, they themselves are also at fault for much of the blame.

And that is exactly what we're going to talk about to you now.

Stay tuned.

THE GAME OF POLITICS Typically, parties that advocate increased military spending tend to have a more right-leaning ideological tendency, and those that are less supportive tend to be more left-leaning.

That's how it works, at least in most of the world.

But what if I told you that in Taiwan, it's just the other way around?

You see, in Taiwan, the traditional Kuomintang and the People's Party, both more right-wing, tend to be reluctant to increase defense investment, while the center-left Democratic Progressive Party, which is the one in power, wants to increase it.

Now, why am I telling you all this?

Well, because Taiwanese politics is a mess, and that's not exactly conducive to creating long-term defense plans that would help reform the military and better equip it.

Do you want an example?

In Taiwan, we have to differentiate between the defense baseline budget that appears in the general budget and other items that are considered extraordinary and have to be approved separately in parliament.

For example, let's talk about military equipment purchases.

For instance, $16.6 billion was spent in 2023, but only about $13 billion was budgeted.

As you can see, these are not minor adjustments, but more than a fifth of military spending.

And, of course, the problem is that approving each item becomes a huge political challenge.

Because, as we have already told you, not all parties are willing to arm themselves to the teeth.

On the one hand, we have the Kuomintang, which deep down still believes in the idea of one China and seeks to try to get along with Beijing.

Their strategy is to build bridges, so to speak.

And how can you build bridges if you are arming yourself to the teeth?

Well, as you can understand, these are two things that are difficult to reconcile.

On the other hand, there is the Popular Party, of a socioliberal nature, which considers that it's more important to increase spending on other social items rather than on defense.

And not surprisingly, since the government is in the minority, these two parties do not miss an opportunity to try to control as much as possible what it does and what it spends.

So passing a small military budget, and then passing additional packages bit by bit, is one way to do that.

Given all this, it's not surprising that many analysts have pointed out that the way the Taiwanese parliament functions is as a brake on maintaining stable and, above all, reliable defense spending.

The problem is that, without a large regular budget, it is very difficult to carry out military reforms or modernization of the equipment.

What if this year you have the money, but next year you don't get approved for more than the baseline budget?

It would be all for nothing.

And that's a problem.

At the same time, there is also the issue about popular support.

And yes, I know what you're thinking, you told me earlier that more than half of Taiwanese want to spend more on defense.