TheEconomicPolicyInstituteestimatesthatjust a onepercentagepointdropinunemploymentleadstowagegrowthof 0.4 to 0.9 percentagepointsforworkersnearthemedianofthewagedistribution.
Thebestbargainingchipanyemployeehastogettingwagegrowthisgoingtothebossandsaying, I'm goingtogosomewhereelseunless I makemoremoney.
Andthat's justnot a crediblethreatwhenunemploymentishigh.
Between 1986 and 1997, almost 29 percentofjobseekersrelocatedfornewjobs.
Thatnumberhasfallentojust 1.6 percentin 2023.
Locationplays a crucialroleinwages.
DespitethesurgeinremoteworkduringtheCOVID-19 pandemic, wagesforremoteandhybridjobshaven't grownnearlyasmuchassalariesforfull-timein-officeroles, withsomeresearchestimatingthatremoteworkerscouldearnupto 30 percentmoreiftheycameintotheofficefivedays a week.
Decadesago, when I was a workerlivinginsortof a loweropportunityarea, I wouldmoveto a higherproductivitycitylikemaybe a SanFranciscoorNewYorkCityorLosAngeles.
Andas a result, I'd beabletocapturehigherwages, gainmoreskillsandthenmoveuptheincomedistribution.
Nowthere's a lotlesspeoplemovingacrossareastocapturethoseopportunities.
Theoverwhelmingnumberofjobsinthe U.S. areinplacesthathavereallynotseenmuchconstructionofhousing.
Someeconomistsalsoarguethatglobalizationhasplayed a pivotalroleinstallingwagegrowthformiddle-incomeAmericans.
Theexpansionoftradewithcountriesthathavemuchlowerwages, I thinkthatwasalwaysgoingtoprovidequite a bitofpressureonthe U.S. middleclassbecausesomuchofthattraderunsthroughlikethemanufacturingsector, whichiswhere a lotofmiddle-classjobshavebeen.
Between 1995 and 2013, tradewithlower-wagenationslikeMexicoandChinareducedwagesforworkerswithout a four-yeardegreebyroughly 5.6 percent, orabout $2,000 peryearforworkersatthemedianwage.
However, whetherglobalizationisactuallytoblamehaslongbeendebated, withsomeresearchsuggestingithashad a minimalimpactonwageandincomeinequality.
Theirunionizationrateshavefallen a bitsincethepeaks, butnowherelikethe U.S. fall.
Andthenifyoujustsortoflookatthefactsonthegroundoverthepast 30 to 40 yearsinthe U.S., there's justbeenclearlybeen a growingemployerhostilitytounionorganizingefforts.
Among U.S. employersinvolvedinunionizationefforts, morethanfouroutof 10 havebeenchargedwithviolatingfederallawsduringtheirunionelectioncampaigns.
Andoneoutoffivecampaignsinvolvedthechargethat a workerwasillegallyfiredfortryingtoorganize a union.
Justthenumberofregisteredunfairlaborpracticesthatarefiringpeopletryingtoorganize a unionhaverisen a lot.
Andonethingthat's happenedtoenablethatis, I mean, one, there's been a changeinmanagementnorms, I think, butalsolikeallofthepenaltiesfordoingthat, justlikethey'renotadjustedforinflationoften.
They'vealwaysbeenpatheticallylow.
Likeifyoufire a workerfortryingtoorganize a union, thepenaltyyoufaceisyouhavetopaythembackthewholelegalprocessgrindsoutandtheycomebacktoyourcompany.
I'm nothopefulthatthepresidentialplatformsthemselveswillsolvethewoesofthemiddleclass, butnordo I thinkthefederalgovernmentisinthefrontseatonsolvingthemanyway.
Buttheyaretakingitseriously.
I mean, hopefullythoseproblemswillbemademoretransparent.
We'llshine a lightonthem.
Andthenthrough a combinationoffederalaction, stateandlocalaction, thatwewillseesomeoftheseimprovementsthatweneedintermsoflessregulationandsometargetedsupportwhereitmakessensetohelpmiddleclassfamiliesthrive.
Between 1979 to 2024, productivityinthe U.S. soaredby 80.9 percent, whilehourlypaygrewbyjust 29.4 percentduringthesameperiod.
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