Name: 中國為何能成為「清潔能源」的龍頭？ (China Is Outspending the U.S. to Achieve the ‘Holy Grail’ of Clean Energy | WSJ U.S. vs. China)
Uploaded: 2024-10-21T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 7 min 52 s

In just a few years, China has built this world-class fusion research campus from scratch, while the U.S. still lacks anything like it.

在短短幾年內，中國就從無到有地建成了這個世界級的核聚變研究園區，而美國還沒有類似的設施。

It's a sign of China's growing investment in nuclear fusion, what many scientists consider the holy grail of clean energy.

這是中國在核聚變領域不斷加大投資的一個標誌，許多科學家認為核聚變是清潔能源的聖盃。

If American companies don't lead on this, then the jobs, the wealth won't develop here, they'll develop in China.

如果美國公司不在這方面起帶頭作用，那麼就業和財富就不會在這裡發展，而會在中國發展。

We'll break down the race to achieve and commercialize nuclear fusion, and what's at stake if China wins.

我們將分析實現核聚變並將其商業化的競賽，以及如果中國獲勝的利害關係。

Fusion has the potential to create nearly limitless energy with no carbon emissions and very limited radioactivity.

核聚變有可能產生幾乎無限的能源，而且沒有碳排放，放射性也非常有限。

In fusion, you combine two small atoms like hydrogen to form a single heavier one, and that releases a huge amount of energy.

在核聚變中，兩個小原子（如氫原子）結合成一個較重的原子，從而釋放出巨大的能量。

To make the atoms collide and fuse, they're heated to an extremely high temperature to form a plasma, which is basically a mix of positively and negatively charged particles.

為了使原子碰撞和融合，需要將它們加熱到極高的溫度，形成等離子體，它基本上是帶正電和負電的粒子的混合體。

Up until probably five years or so ago, Fusion was seen as a long-term fundamental scientific challenge.

直到大約五年前，核聚變一直被視為一項長期的基礎科學挑戰。

There was a lot of open collaboration and discussion among scientists from around the world.

來自世界各地的科學家進行了大量的公開合作和討論。

George Tynan is a global fusion expert who has worked with several of China's top universities, as well as China's first nuclear fusion research institute.

George Tynan 是全球核聚變專家，曾與中國多所頂尖大學以及中國首家核聚變研究所合作。

In the last five years or so, there's the beginning realization that this may not just be interesting science, but there may be a possibility that this could become an important practical technology.

在過去五年左右的時間裡，人們開始意識到，這可能不僅僅是一門有趣的科學，還有可能成為一項重要的實用技術。

He says he hasn't been back to Chinese labs since before 2020, partly because the U.S. government has discouraged it.

他說，自 2020 年之前，他就沒有再去過中國實驗室，部分原因是美國政府不鼓勵他去。

Some scientists say fusion energy could be on the grid as early as the 2030s.

一些科學家表示，聚變能源最早可在 2030 年代投入使用。

China became a leader in the field after it joined the international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject called ITER in 2003.

2003 年，中國加入了名為 "國際熱核聚變實驗堆 "的國際核聚變研究和工程大項目，成為該領域的領導者。

Since then, it has invested heavily in domestic fusion infrastructure, research and workforce.

從那時起，它在國內核聚變基礎設施、研究和勞動力方面進行了大量投資。

One of the leading candidates for a viable and practical fusion reactor is called a tokamak, a machine that confines plasma using strong magnetic fields.

託卡馬克是一種利用強磁場限制等離子體的機器，是可行和實用的聚變反應堆的主要候選者之一。

The U.S. has two main government-funded tokamaks.

美國主要有兩個由政府資助的託卡馬克。

Its fourth is expected to be completed in 2027.

第四個項目預計將於 2027 年完工。

China has 10 times as many PhDs in fusion science and engineering as the U.S.

中國聚變科學與工程領域的博士人數是美國的 10 倍。

And the Chinese government has launched new fusion education programs in China with a goal of training 1,000 new plasma physicists.

中國政府已經在中國啟動了新的核聚變教育計劃，目標是培養 1000 名新的等離子體物理學家。

Some of the experiments in China can operate on a 24-7 basis.

中國的一些實驗可以全天候運行。

That's partly because most Chinese tokamaks use superconducting magnetic coils, which can be left on for days or even weeks at a time.

部分原因是中國的大多數託卡馬克使用超導磁線圈，這種線圈可以連續開啟數天甚至數週。

The U.S. is moving towards superconducting magnets, but has mostly been using copper magnets, which dissipate a lot of energy and need to be cooled down after being on for just a few seconds.

美國正在向超導磁體方向發展，但主要使用的是銅磁體，這種磁體會耗散大量能量，而且在開啟幾秒鐘後就需要冷卻。

American fusion infrastructure in public facilities is quite old.

美國公共設施中的融合基礎設施已經相當老舊。

They are honestly not of the leading edge.

They do not compare with the things that China has.

它們與中國擁有的東西無法相比。

Department of Energy says the D3D tokamak continues to be a world-leading device, and an update to the NSTX-U tokamak is almost complete.

能源部表示，D3D 託卡馬克仍然是世界領先的設備，NSTX-U 託卡馬克的更新工作也已接近完成。

But some U.S. scientists say China has a habit of copying U.S. designs.

但一些美國科學家說，中國有抄襲美國設計的習慣。

For example, that new tokamak China is building.

例如，中國正在建造的新託卡馬克。

Some U.S. scientists say it's a copy of one designed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, the largest private fusion company in the U.S.

一些美國科學家說，這是由美國最大的私營聚變公司聯邦聚變系統公司（Commonwealth Fusion Systems）設計的仿製品。

The East tokamak, the idea for that experiment was actually originally generated here in this country in the 1990s.

實際上，東方託卡馬克實驗的想法最初是在 20 世紀 90 年代由這個國家提出的。

But for a variety of budgetary reasons, the decision was made not to pursue that.

但由於各種預算原因，決定不再繼續進行。

And then in the early 2000s, they built that device with largely homegrown technology.

本世紀初，他們又主要利用本土技術製造了這種設備。

China's Institute of Plasma Physics didn't respond to requests for comment.

中國等離子體物理研究所沒有迴應置評請求。

Helion Energy, a U.S. company, accused Chinese companies ENN and HH Maxx of copying its plans, too.

美國公司 Helion Energy 也指責中國公司 ENN 和 HH Maxx 抄襲其計劃。

One company launched a direct copycat program pursuing Helion's design, and another publicly stated its intent to replicate key aspects of Helion's approach.

一家公司直接模仿 Helion 的設計，另一家公司則公開表示有意複製 Helion 方法的關鍵部分。

ENN and HH Maxx didn't respond to requests for comment.

ENN 和 HH Maxx 沒有迴應置評請求。

China also appears to be following a commercialization program similar to the roadmap that hundreds of U.S. fusion scientists and engineers first published in 2020.

中國似乎也在實施一項商業化計劃，該計劃與數百名美國核聚變科學家和工程師於 2020 年首次公佈的路線圖相似。

DOE has really not built anything within this plan.

能源部確實沒有在該計劃內建造任何東西。

The Chinese have basically implemented and built the test stands that will enable them to commercialize.

中國人已經基本實現並建造了試驗檯，這將使他們能夠實現商業化。

The DOE says it is building new facilities and that its fusion science and tech roadmap will be released next spring.

能源部表示，它正在建設新的設施，其核聚變科學和技術路線圖將於明年春天發佈。

It also says the new plan is different from China's public sector-led approach, and the report won't have all the details, so it would be difficult for China to copy it.

它還說，新計劃與中國的公共部門主導方式不同，報告不會包含所有細節，是以中國很難照搬。

There's a long history in China of being fast followers, of taking the knowledge learned and then investing it into domestic Chinese industry.

中國有悠久的歷史，那就是快速跟進，把學到的知識投入到中國國內的產業中去。

And we've seen this play out in solar power, electric vehicles most recently, in high-speed rail.

我們已經在太陽能發電、電動汽車、高速鐵路等領域看到了這一點。

The Chinese government is also spending double what the U.S. is spending on fusion.

中國政府在核聚變方面的投入也是美國的兩倍。

In December 2023, the Chinese government launched a new state-owned company to pool resources from across the country.

2023 年 12 月，中國政府成立了一家新的國有企業，以彙集全國各地的資源。

China's goal is to build the first industrial prototype fusion reactor by 2035 and to begin large-scale commercial production of fusion energy by 2050, according to a 2022 scientific report.

根據 2022 年的一份科學報告，中國的目標是到 2035 年建成第一個工業聚變反應堆原型，到 2050 年開始大規模商業化生產聚變能源。

In the U.S., industry experts say the fusion budget hasn't been enough to keep up with inflation.

在美國，業內專家表示，融合預算還不足以跟上通貨膨脹的步伐。

So far, the U.S. has attracted far more private investment than China.

迄今為止，美國吸引的私人投資遠遠多於中國。

Of all the fusion companies founded since 1992, over 50 percent are U.S. companies.

在 1992 年以來成立的所有融合公司中，50% 以上是美國公司。

This is the key thing that the United States can leverage.

這是美國可以利用的關鍵所在。

But China's private sector is quickly catching up, though U.S. industry experts say it's often difficult to distinguish between private and public funding in China.

但中國的私營部門正在迅速迎頭趕上，不過美國的行業專家表示，在中國通常很難區分私人資金和公共資金。

Energy Singularity, a startup in Shanghai, built its own tokamak in just two years.

上海的一家初創公司 Energy Singularity 僅用兩年時間就建成了自己的託卡馬克。

The company says it expects to have a device that can feed power to the grid before 2035.

該公司表示，預計在 2035 年前就能生產出可以向電網供電的設備。

Even if the U.S. wins the race to fusion, we have to make sure that we can then scale up.

即使美國在核聚變競賽中獲勝，我們也必須確保能夠擴大規模。

We're concerned that there simply is not enough capacity in the United States, in like-minded countries, to support the real exponential growth that we expect to see.

我們擔心的是，在美國，在想法相同的國家，根本沒有足夠的能力來支持我們期望看到的真正的指數級增長。

One of China's advantages is that it already dominates manufacturing supply chains.

中國的優勢之一是已經主導了製造業供應鏈。

Important manufactured goods like power electronics, capacitors, China has really cornered the market on.

像電力電子產品、電容器這樣的重要製成品，中國已經真正佔領了市場。

China is also building more nuclear reactors than any other country, which some industry experts say would give it an advantage when commercial fusion is reached.

中國正在建造的核反應堆也比其他任何國家都多，一些業內專家認為，這將使中國在實現商業核聚變時佔據優勢。

We should expect it to be a net loss to American global influence around the world.

我們應該預料到這將是美國在全球影響力的淨損失。

That China will leverage this technology as something that they can support their Belt and Road allies with.

中國將利用這項技術為 "一帶一路 "盟友提供支持。

Their customers will need to buy from them and do business with them for the rest of the century.

在本世紀餘下的時間裡，他們的客戶還需要向他們購買產品，與他們做生意。

U.S. fusion experts seem optimistic about the private sector's progress.

美國核聚變專家似乎對私營部門的進展持樂觀態度。

But they say the industry still needs support from the government to win this race.

但他們表示，該行業仍需要政府的支持，才能在這場競爭中獲勝。

We must establish and leverage public-private partnerships.

我們必須建立和利用公私合作伙伴關係。

Commercial space came about because NASA invested over $500 million in a public-private partnership that supported SpaceX and Blue Origin.

商業航天之所以出現，是因為美國國家航空航天局向支持 SpaceX 和藍色起源公司的公私合作伙伴關係投資了 5 億多美元。

This is not something that's out of nowhere.

It takes sustained effort, sustained over many, many years, even over decades.

這需要持之以恆的努力，持續很多很多年，甚至幾十年。

 Maintaining that level of energy and effort will be the biggest challenge in this country.

保持這種精力和努力將是這個國家面臨的最大挑戰。