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  • In just a few years, China has built this world-class fusion research campus from scratch, while the U.S. still lacks anything like it.

  • It's a sign of China's growing investment in nuclear fusion, what many scientists consider the holy grail of clean energy.

  • If American companies don't lead on this, then the jobs, the wealth won't develop here, they'll develop in China.

  • We'll break down the race to achieve and commercialize nuclear fusion, and what's at stake if China wins.

  • Fusion has the potential to create nearly limitless energy with no carbon emissions and very limited radioactivity.

  • In fusion, you combine two small atoms like hydrogen to form a single heavier one, and that releases a huge amount of energy.

  • To make the atoms collide and fuse, they're heated to an extremely high temperature to form a plasma, which is basically a mix of positively and negatively charged particles.

  • Up until probably five years or so ago, Fusion was seen as a long-term fundamental scientific challenge.

  • There was a lot of open collaboration and discussion among scientists from around the world.

  • George Tynan is a global fusion expert who has worked with several of China's top universities, as well as China's first nuclear fusion research institute.

  • In the last five years or so, there's the beginning realization that this may not just be interesting science, but there may be a possibility that this could become an important practical technology.

  • He says he hasn't been back to Chinese labs since before 2020, partly because the U.S. government has discouraged it.

  • Some scientists say fusion energy could be on the grid as early as the 2030s.

  • China became a leader in the field after it joined the international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject called ITER in 2003.

  • Since then, it has invested heavily in domestic fusion infrastructure, research and workforce.

  • One of the leading candidates for a viable and practical fusion reactor is called a tokamak, a machine that confines plasma using strong magnetic fields.

  • The U.S. has two main government-funded tokamaks.

  • China has three.

  • Its fourth is expected to be completed in 2027.

  • China has 10 times as many PhDs in fusion science and engineering as the U.S.

  • And the Chinese government has launched new fusion education programs in China with a goal of training 1,000 new plasma physicists.

  • They work very long hours.

  • Some of the experiments in China can operate on a 24-7 basis.

  • I've seen them running multiple shifts.

  • That's partly because most Chinese tokamaks use superconducting magnetic coils, which can be left on for days or even weeks at a time.

  • The U.S. is moving towards superconducting magnets, but has mostly been using copper magnets, which dissipate a lot of energy and need to be cooled down after being on for just a few seconds.

  • American fusion infrastructure in public facilities is quite old.

  • They are honestly not of the leading edge.

  • They do not compare with the things that China has.

  • The U.S.

  • Department of Energy says the D3D tokamak continues to be a world-leading device, and an update to the NSTX-U tokamak is almost complete.

  • But some U.S. scientists say China has a habit of copying U.S. designs.

  • For example, that new tokamak China is building.

  • Some U.S. scientists say it's a copy of one designed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, the largest private fusion company in the U.S.

  • And that's just one example.

  • The East tokamak, the idea for that experiment was actually originally generated here in this country in the 1990s.

  • But for a variety of budgetary reasons, the decision was made not to pursue that.

  • And then in the early 2000s, they built that device with largely homegrown technology.

  • China's Institute of Plasma Physics didn't respond to requests for comment.

  • Helion Energy, a U.S. company, accused Chinese companies ENN and HH Maxx of copying its plans, too.

  • One company launched a direct copycat program pursuing Helion's design, and another publicly stated its intent to replicate key aspects of Helion's approach.

  • ENN and HH Maxx didn't respond to requests for comment.

  • China also appears to be following a commercialization program similar to the roadmap that hundreds of U.S. fusion scientists and engineers first published in 2020.

  • DOE has really not built anything within this plan.

  • The Chinese have basically implemented and built the test stands that will enable them to commercialize.

  • The DOE says it is building new facilities and that its fusion science and tech roadmap will be released next spring.

  • It also says the new plan is different from China's public sector-led approach, and the report won't have all the details, so it would be difficult for China to copy it.

  • There's a long history in China of being fast followers, of taking the knowledge learned and then investing it into domestic Chinese industry.

  • And we've seen this play out in solar power, electric vehicles most recently, in high-speed rail.

  • The Chinese government is also spending double what the U.S. is spending on fusion.

  • In December 2023, the Chinese government launched a new state-owned company to pool resources from across the country.

  • China's goal is to build the first industrial prototype fusion reactor by 2035 and to begin large-scale commercial production of fusion energy by 2050, according to a 2022 scientific report.

  • In the U.S., industry experts say the fusion budget hasn't been enough to keep up with inflation.

  • So far, the U.S. has attracted far more private investment than China.

  • Of all the fusion companies founded since 1992, over 50 percent are U.S. companies.

  • Just 4 percent are Chinese.

  • This is the key thing that the United States can leverage.

  • But China's private sector is quickly catching up, though U.S. industry experts say it's often difficult to distinguish between private and public funding in China.

  • Energy Singularity, a startup in Shanghai, built its own tokamak in just two years.

  • The company says it expects to have a device that can feed power to the grid before 2035.

  • Even if the U.S. wins the race to fusion, we have to make sure that we can then scale up.

  • We're concerned that there simply is not enough capacity in the United States, in like-minded countries, to support the real exponential growth that we expect to see.

  • One of China's advantages is that it already dominates manufacturing supply chains.

  • Important manufactured goods like power electronics, capacitors, China has really cornered the market on.

  • China is also building more nuclear reactors than any other country, which some industry experts say would give it an advantage when commercial fusion is reached.

  • We should expect it to be a net loss to American global influence around the world.

  • That China will leverage this technology as something that they can support their Belt and Road allies with.

  • Their customers will need to buy from them and do business with them for the rest of the century.

  • U.S. fusion experts seem optimistic about the private sector's progress.

  • But they say the industry still needs support from the government to win this race.

  • We must establish and leverage public-private partnerships.

  • Commercial space came about because NASA invested over $500 million in a public-private partnership that supported SpaceX and Blue Origin.

  • This is not something that's out of nowhere.

  • Fusion is a very hard problem to solve.

  • It takes sustained effort, sustained over many, many years, even over decades.

  • Maintaining that level of energy and effort will be the biggest challenge in this country.

In just a few years, China has built this world-class fusion research campus from scratch, while the U.S. still lacks anything like it.

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China Is Outspending the U.S. to Achieve the ‘Holy Grail’ of Clean Energy | WSJ U.S. vs. China

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    VoiceTube posted on 2024/10/09
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