First of all, my rule of thumb is to ignore the polls.

If we're down, let that motivate you to work harder, and if we're up, pretend that we're down and keep working harder.

Second, a lot of pollsters aren't accurate.

In fact, most pollsters have missed the mark pretty extensively, especially over the last few years.

Except one.

Ann Seltzer in Iowa is the best pollster in America.

To call her polling the gold standard is probably an understatement.

Put simply, I would not be making a video about a single poll unless the pollster was that good.

And she just came out with a poll that straight up shocked me, and changed the momentum of the entire election cycle as we know it.

According to the final Iowa poll from Ann Seltzer, Kamala Harris is leading Trump 47-44 in Iowa.

She is up 3 points.

Okay, a few things.

The first, holy shit.

The second, I want to give you a rundown of just how accurate her polls have been in the past.

First, this is courtesy of Kyle Kondik at Crystal Ball.

In 2012, the final poll showed Obama up 5, Obama won by 6.

In 2014, the final poll showed Joni Ernst up by 7, and she won by 8.

In 2016, the final poll showed Trump up by 7, and he won by a little under 10.

In 2018, the final poll showed Kim Reynolds down by 2, while Reynolds actually outperformed the poll and won by a little under 3 points, so that one was a miss.

In 2020, the final poll had Trump leading by 7 points, extremely close to his 8 point victory.

In the Senate race that same year, the final poll had Senator Joni Ernst up by 4, and she won by about 6 and a half.

In 2022, the final poll had Chuck Grassley up by 12, nailing the final margin exactly.

The final poll showed Reynolds leading in HER re-election bid by 17 points, and she won by 18 and a half.

In other words, except for one small miss in 2018, which still was only a few points off, she's generally within 1-2 points of nailing it, and in some cases, actually gets the margin exactly, which is to say, a final poll showing Kamala up by 3 in IOWA is a blinking red light for Trump, and a major boon for Kamala Harris.

It was also clearly unexpected by Republicans.

Earlier today, the Iowa GOP chair tweeted, I'm excited for Ann Seltzer to say President Trump is on track to beat Harris by at least 8 points in Iowa so they can protect their reputation right before election day.

This happens every cycle, and this time will be no different, everyone knew the 4-point margin was nonsense.

Oh what they would do for a 4-point margin in Trump's favor after THIS poll.

So yeah, that take by the Iowa GOP chair, pretty much aged like milk in the sun.

Now a few data points here.

First, Iowa is not Mississippi.

Obama won Iowa in 2008 by 9 and a half points, and Obama won Iowa in 2012 by almost 6 points, so it's not pure fantasy to think that a Democrat is capable of winning Iowa because it happened not too long ago.

Second, Trump won Iowa in 2016 by about 9 and a half points, and he won Iowa in 2020 by about 8 points, so already his margin shrank from one election cycle to the next.

But if the Seltzer poll is accurate, then this would signify an 11 point swing to the left.

In an environment where Kamala Harris is swinging 11 points to the left in Iowa, it is not illogical to presume that she's looking quite good in the actual battleground states nearby, like Wisconsin and Michigan, for example, and that something bigger is happening across the country.

And if you dig into the reason why, well, there might be some clues.

The first is that Iowa, again, a state that voted for Obama not too long ago by nearly 10 points, now has one of the strictest abortion bans in the entire country, banning abortion in almost all cases after 6 weeks.

And I'm not sure if you all realize how unpopular these laws are, but they've contributed to Republican losses even in states like Ohio and Kentucky and Kansas and Alabama.

One might think that their insistence on imposing their unpopular theocratic edicts onto the population might yield to their desire to, oh I don't know, win elections, but apparently not.

Apparently, they're just that committed to the bit of dismantling our rights so that they can watch Republicans lose in some of the reddest states in the entire country and think to themselves, no no, what we're doing must be good.

I don't know what's worse, the delusion or the desire to control us, but either way, neither seems to be acceptable among Americans.

Now with all of that said, here is the most important message of this entire video.

Do not let this make you complacent.

Let it fire you up.

Let it inspire you.

Let it light a fire under your asses to make this thing a reality.

You don't win elections with polls, you win them with votes.

So remember the feeling that you have right now, hearing the news about this poll.

You know what will make it feel even better?

Having that news become a reality.

The poll showed us that that is within reach, but it's not going to happen in a vacuum.

It's going to take us putting in the work.

So right now, take out your phone and find one or two or three people in your circles who aren't engaged in this election.

Maybe they're politically apathetic, maybe they're disaffected, maybe they've aged just into the process, maybe they voted for Trump before but have soured on him since, or maybe they're just not that interested in politics.

Do your part and make those people your responsibility.

We're not asking you to reach out to 10,000 people, just a few.

And if that feels like it won't really matter, consider the fact that in 2020 in Wisconsin, the tipping point state, Biden beat Trump by just two votes per precinct.

That's it.

Just two votes separated a Biden win from a Trump win in that key battleground state.

Just two votes could flip a precinct, which could flip a state, which could flip a country.

Do not doubt the power that you have.

And by the way, if you do doubt it, remember how hard Republicans are trying to take your votes away.

They wouldn't do that if that power wasn't immense.

The fact is that Trump and his team are counting on making you feel like this election is already in the bag for him.

They want you to feel like your vote won't matter.

They want you to feel like he's already won.

Why?

So that they can depress turnout on the left.

That's in part why he's holding rallies in California and New York and New Mexico and Colorado to give the impression that even in deep blue states, they're in play for Trump.

And then of course he'll use that mistaken notion as a predicate to try and cry fraud when he inevitably loses the election, but that's an entirely different video altogether.

But the fact is that the optics of an inevitable Trump win are actually a boon to his campaign, because it may very well dissuade some folks from turning out.

This poll pokes a big hole in that narrative, meaning we absolutely CAN win.

Trump's victory is not inevitable, but again, it is not automatic.

Polls only matter if we vote.

We've clearly got the numbers, let's make sure that those numbers translate to ballots.

And let's be clear, it's not just Iowa.

Remember, the Nebraska Senate race is now neck and neck between incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer and independent candidate Dan Osborne, who got his start in politics on a platform of workers' rights.

I interviewed Dan just today, and here's what he had to say.

But ultimately I would say it's the message.

You know, it's my message that less than 2% of our House and Senate come from the working class.

It's a complete misrepresentation of the people in my state, and certainly the country.

You know, working people don't feel like they're getting a fair shake, they're getting abandoned by both parties.

So I think this is, I've been called a breath of fresh air, which, you know, that is what it is.

But it's certainly, the broad stroke message is campaign finance reform, ending Citizens United, that states' corporations are people, and money is free speech, and there's so much influence on our elections from corporations.

And, you know, I haven't always been a political person.

You know, it wasn't until Corporate Green came knocking on my door in the form of the Kellogg strike, you know, during COVID.

We were working seven days a week, 12 hours a day that whole year, no time off.

And we made them record profits.

They went from $19 billion to $21 billion, the CEO gave himself the $2 million raise, everybody enriched themselves, and then they tried to take from their workers at the same time.

So we stood up, four U.S. plants went out on strike for 77 days, and we won a contract.

So that showed me that when we stick together behind issues and causes, we can make a difference in regular people's lives.

And I think Robin Williams, the comedian, said it best when he said, our politicians should be wearing NASCAR jackets with patches of their sponsors so we know how they're going to vote.

And certainly my opponent's no different.

But you know, if you're out there and you're watching this, my average donation still remains $40.

So this campaign truly is powered by the people, the way the framers of the Constitution intended it to be a government buying for the people.

And by the way, if you want to donate to Dan and help him pull off the upset of the election, I'll embed the link right here on the screen and I'll also put it in the post description of this video.

But what Dan Osborne's race and this new poll out of Iowa show us is clear.

Something is happening in this country.

Americans are waking up, we are recognizing our agency, and we are demanding our rights back.

For too long, Republicans have felt entitled to not only power in this country, but our very freedoms.

Our freedom to love who we want, to marry who we want, to grow our families how we want, to pray how we want, to read what we want, to travel where we want, and on and on.

So if you want to protect our freedoms and not let a party of big government controlling religious ideologues shove themselves into your bedrooms and your doctor's offices, then make sure that you vote.

Make sure that you get your circles of people to vote.

Make sure that you leave it all out in the field.

We are just days away from making history.

Let's not miss our one and only chance to do that.

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That link is also on the screen.

Thanks so much for watching.