Name: 特朗普會讓經濟崩潰嗎？ (Would Trump Crash the Economy?)
Uploaded: 2024-11-14T16:43:14.000Z
Duration: 9 min 36 s

基礎被動語態

This video was brought to you by Henson Shaving.

本視頻由 Henson Shaving 為您帶來。

進階形容詞比較級句型

We're now only a few days out from the US presidential election, and the race is as tight as ever.

現在距離美國總統大選只有幾天的時間了，但選情一如既往地緊張。

情態副詞

While the polls have it as a toss-up, the bookies currently have Trump as the slight favour, and this is despite the fact that he's proposed probably the most unorthodox economic policy platform in modern American history.

儘管民調顯示勝負難料，但博彩公司目前認為特朗普略勝一籌，儘管他提出了可能是美國現代史上最非正統的經濟政策綱領。

So in this video, we thought we'd take another look at Trump's wild economic policies, and how they'd actually affect the American economy.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們想再看看特朗普瘋狂的經濟政策，以及它們對美國經濟的實際影響。

If you want more of our very best reporting on the US election, then consider buying a copy of our magazine, Too Long.

如果您想了解更多關於美國大選的精彩報道，請考慮購買我們的雜誌《Too Long》。

Our 2024 election special will run you through the results of not only the US election, but also tons more from around the world.

我們的 2024 年大選特別報道不僅會介紹美國大選的結果，還會介紹世界各地的大量選舉結果。

Buy a copy or learn more by clicking the link in the description.

請點擊描述中的鏈接購買或瞭解更多資訊。

So, before we get into it, a couple of caveats.

是以，在我們開始討論之前，有幾點需要注意。

First, we've done videos on both Harris and Trump's economic platforms in the past, but we thought we'd do an update on Trump because he's ditched some of his old policies and picked up some new ones, including getting Elon Musk to cut $2 trillion off the federal budget.

首先，我們過去曾就哈里斯和特朗普的經濟政綱製作過視頻，但我們認為我們應該就特朗普的政綱做一個更新，因為他拋棄了一些舊政策，並採取了一些新政策，包括讓埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）從聯邦預算中削減 2 萬億美元。

Secondly, it's worth saying that we're going off what Trump has said he would do.

其次，值得說明的是，我們是根據特朗普說過的他會做的事情來判斷的。

In reality, it's at least possible that he ditches his more extreme policies once in office, or that Congress might block some of them.

實際上，他至少有可能在上任後放棄自己的極端政策，或者國會可能會阻止其中的一些政策。

Anyway, let's start by taking a look at Trump's economic platform.

無論如何，讓我們先來看看特朗普的經濟政綱。

Leaving aside his funky monetary policies, which Trump has sort of stopped talking about recently, Trump's economic policies can broadly be lumped into two buckets.

拋開特朗普最近不再談論的時髦的貨幣政策不談，特朗普的經濟政策大致可以分為兩類。

Now, Trump loves tariffs, apparently because he thinks that they help to protect American manufacturers and reduce America's bilateral trade deficits.

現在，特朗普喜歡關稅，顯然是因為他認為關稅有助於保護美國製造商，減少美國的雙邊貿易赤字。

Accordingly, Trump has proposed a flat tariff on literally all imports coming into the US.

是以，特朗普提議對進入美國的所有進口商品徵收統一關稅。

Most of the time, Trump says that this will be set at 10%.

大多數情況下，特朗普說這一比例將定為 10%。

But more recently, he's suggested maybe bringing it up to 20%.

但最近，他建議將其提高到 20%。

And at a recent speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, he even suggested it could go to 50%.

最近在芝加哥經濟俱樂部的一次演講中，他甚至建議將這一比例提高到 50%。

Trump has also proposed a steeper flat tariff on Chinese imports.

特朗普還提議對中國進口商品徵收更高的統一關稅。

The precise rate for that tariff is unclear.

Trump has said at various points that it will be 50, 60, or even higher than 60%.

特朗普曾在不同場合表示，這一比例將達到 50%、60%，甚至高於 60%。

Trump has also said that he wants to expand Biden's new tariffs on Chinese imports related to the energy transition.

特朗普還表示，他希望擴大拜登對與能源轉型有關的中國進口商品徵收新關稅的範圍。

For instance, he wants to double the current tariff rate on Chinese EVs from 100% to 200%.

例如，他希望將目前對中國電動汽車徵收的關稅率提高一倍，從 100%提高到 200%。

Let's move on to the less taxes half of this though.

不過，讓我們繼續討論稅率較低的那一半。

Trump likes less taxes, both because he thinks that low taxes stimulate economic growth, and because they're popular.

特朗普喜歡少徵稅，一是因為他認為低稅率能刺激經濟增長，二是因為低稅率很受歡迎。

Specifically, Trump has said that he wants to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is due to expire at the end of 2025.

具體來說，特朗普表示，他希望延長將於 2025 年底到期的 2017 年《減稅與就業法案》。

And he's also floated reducing corporation tax to either 20 or 15%, having cut it from 35% to 21% in his first term.

他還提出將公司稅降至 20% 或 15%，而在他的第一個任期內，公司稅曾從 35% 降至 21%。

Trump has even suggested scrapping income tax entirely, and essentially replacing it with super high tariffs, an idea that he first floated in a meeting with Congressional Republicans a few months ago, but one that he's become increasingly keen on since, even repeating it on Joe Rogan recently.

特朗普甚至建議完全取消所得稅，基本上以超高關稅取而代之，這是他幾個月前在與國會共和黨人會面時首次提出的想法，但此後他越來越熱衷於這一想法，最近甚至在喬-羅根（Joe Rogan）節目中重複了這一想法。

So what would all of this actually mean for the American economy?

那麼，這一切對美國經濟究竟意味著什麼呢？

Well, there would be at least three big consequences.

More inequality, more inflation, and more debt.

更多的不平等、更多的通貨膨脹和更多的債務。

Before we get into it, we should stress that this really isn't intended as an anti-Trump video.

在進入正題之前，我們需要強調的是，這並不是一段反特朗普的視頻。

And as we said in the intro, it's possible, if not likely, that he ends up pursuing more old school Republican policies once he gets into office.

正如我們在開場白中所說，一旦他上臺，即使不是很有可能，也有可能最終推行更多老派共和黨政策。

Nonetheless, there's a strong consensus that at least in the short term, Trump's stated policies would increase inequality, inflation, and the national debt.

儘管如此，有一種強烈的共識認為，至少在短期內，特朗普宣稱的政策會加劇不平等、通貨膨脹和國債。

那麼，讓我們從不平等性開始。

Trump's tax cuts would increase inequality for two reasons.

特朗普的減稅政策會加劇不平等，原因有二。

First, his income tax cuts directly benefit the highest earners, with those earning over $800,000 a year benefiting most.

首先，他的所得稅減稅政策直接惠及最高收入者，年收入超過 80 萬美元的人受益最多。

And second, his corporate tax cuts would also benefit the wealthiest.

其次，他的企業減稅政策也會讓最富有的人受益。

While Trump claimed in 2016 that his corporate tax cuts would trickle down to workers, in the form of higher wages, and trickle down to consumers, in the form of lower prices, neither of these things actually happened.

雖然特朗普在 2016 年聲稱，他的企業減稅政策會以提高工資的形式惠及工人，並以降低價格的形式惠及消費者，但這兩件事實際上都沒有發生。

Academic work in the aftermath of those cuts found that most of the benefits actually went to corporate executives instead.

在這些削減之後，學術界的研究發現，大部分福利實際上被企業高管所獲得。

Anyway, let's move on to the second impact, more inflation.

總之，讓我們來談談第二個影響，即更嚴重的通貨膨脹。

Trump's economic policies would increase inflation for two reasons.

特朗普的經濟政策會加劇通貨膨脹，原因有二。

Firstly, tax cuts mean more disposable income, so more spending, which puts upward pressure on prices.

首先，減稅意味著更多的可支配收入，是以會有更多的消費，從而對物價造成上漲壓力。

And second, tariffs make goods more expensive.

Because you either have to pay the tariff when you import goods, or you have to buy an equivalent good that's made in America, which will probably be more expensive.

因為你要麼在進口商品時支付關稅，要麼就必須購買美國製造的同等商品，而後者可能會更貴。

The Non-Partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics, for instance, estimates that Trump's policies would push inflation up by somewhere between four and seven percentage points above what it would be otherwise, depending on the severity of the tariffs and other countries' responses.

例如，非黨派彼得森國際經濟研究所估計，特朗普的政策將使通脹率比其他情況下的通脹率高出 4 到 7 個百分點，具體取決於關稅的嚴重程度和其他國家的反應。

Now, we should say that while tariffs would almost definitely increase inflation in the short term, the long term effects are harder to forecast.

現在，我們應該說，雖然關稅幾乎肯定會在短期內增加通貨膨脹，但長期影響卻難以預測。

Pro-free trade economists would say that tariff-driven protectionism will result in permanently higher prices, because America will never be able to manufacture everything as efficiently as the rest of the world can.

支持自由貿易的經濟學家會說，關稅驅動的保護主義將導致價格永久性上漲，因為美國永遠無法像世界其他國家那樣高效地生產所有產品。

Conversely, more protectionist-minded economists would argue that while prices would go up a bit in the short term while the economy adapts, America would eventually be able to manufacture everything at least nearly as efficiently as the rest of the world, bringing down those prices.

與此相反，更具保護主義意識的經濟學家則認為，雖然在經濟適應過程中，價格會在短期內略有上漲，但美國最終將能夠至少像世界其他國家一樣高效地生產所有產品，從而降低價格。

On top of that, this reshoring of manufacturing will apparently create loads of great, well-paid jobs, which means that many Americans would ultimately be better off.

此外，製造業的外遷顯然會創造大量高薪的好工作，這意味著許多美國人最終會過上更好的生活。

Anyway, the final consequence of Trump's economic plans is more debt.

總之，特朗普經濟計劃的最終後果是債務增加。

America is already running a pretty large deficit on top of a pretty massive debt pile, and Trump's tax cuts would only make that worse.

美國在鉅額債務的基礎上已經出現了相當大的赤字，特朗普的減稅政策只會讓情況更糟。

Especially if Trump tries to ditch income tax entirely, because replacing income tax with tariffs would almost definitely be impossible.

特別是如果特朗普試圖完全取消所得稅，因為用關稅取代所得稅幾乎肯定是不可能的。

In 2023, the total value of American imports was about $3 trillion, while the total value of income taxes was about $2 trillion, which means that Trump would need at least a 67% average tariff on all imports to replace income But this wouldn't work either, because as the tariff rate rises, the value and quantity of imports would fall.

2023 年，美國進口總值約為 3 萬億美元，而所得稅總值約為 2 萬億美元，這意味著特朗普至少需要對所有進口商品平均徵收 67% 的關稅，才能取代收入，但這也行不通，因為隨著關稅率的上升，進口商品的價值和數量都會下降。

Again, analysis by the Nonpartisan Committee for Responsible Federal Budget from late October found that Trump's policies would increase the debt by nearly $8 trillion through 2035, according to their central estimate.

無黨派聯邦預算負責委員會 10 月底的分析再次發現，根據他們的中心估計，特朗普的政策將使 2035 年的債務增加近 8 萬億美元。

And that's nearly double the fiscal impact of Harris' proposed policies.

而這幾乎是哈里斯所提政策的財政影響的兩倍。

This is a massive number, and in practice would mean pushing the annual deficit from a bit over 6% of GDP, or nearly $2 trillion where it currently sits, to nearly 10% of GDP, or about $3 trillion.

這是一個龐大的數字，實際上意味著將把年度赤字從略高於 GDP 的 6%，即目前的近 2 萬億美元，提高到接近 GDP 的 10%，即約 3 萬億美元。

The big caveat worth mentioning here is that Trump said that Elon Musk would run a new Department of Government Efficiency, which would be responsible for trimming down the federal government.

值得一提的是，特朗普曾表示，埃隆-馬斯克將負責管理一個新的政府效率部，該部門將負責削減聯邦政府的開支。

Musk has claimed that he'd be able to cut $2 trillion off the roughly $7 trillion annual But that wouldn't be easy.

馬斯克曾聲稱，他能從每年約 7 萬億美元的開支中削減 2 萬億美元，但這並不容易。

It would almost definitely require steep cuts to defence spending or benefit programs like social security.

這幾乎肯定需要大幅削減國防開支或社會保障等福利項目。

And history is riddled with politicians claiming that they'd cut the fat off government bureaucracy, only to realise that once they got into office, it's not a politically easy thing to do.

歷史上有很多政客聲稱要削減政府官僚機構的脂肪，但一旦他們上臺，就會意識到這在政治上並不容易做到。

But while Musk might struggle to trim $2 trillion from the federal budget, you won't struggle to trim the hair from your face with a Henson razor.

不過，雖然馬斯克可能會努力從聯邦預算中削減 2 萬億美元，但你不會努力用亨森刮鬚刀來修剪臉上的毛髮。

If you're sick of the gimmicks that other shaving brands use, the subscriptions, moisturising strips, lasers, whatever, then you'll want to check out Henson.

如果你厭倦了其他剃鬚品牌所使用的噱頭、訂閱、保溼條、脈衝光等，那麼你一定要看看 Henson。

Because, and here's the dirty secret about the razor industry, even the cheapest dollar store disposable razor will likely give you a reasonably good shave.

因為，這裡有一個關於刮鬚刀行業的骯髒祕密，即使是一元店裡最便宜的一次性刮鬚刀，也能給你帶來相當不錯的剃鬚效果。

The challenge is the impact they'll have on your skin.

So to protect your skin while shaving, you need to actually support the blade properly.

是以，為了在剃鬚時保護皮膚，您需要正確地支撐刀片。

And Henson can provide that quality shave, even with cheap blades, thanks to the Henson razor, which they produce at their aerospace machine shop, which has also produced parts for the ISS, and which perfectly holds blades at a 30 degree angle, and extends them only 0.0013 inches, less than the width of a human hair.

即使使用廉價的刀片，亨森也能提供高質量的剃鬚效果，這要歸功於亨森刮鬚刀。亨森刮鬚刀是在他們的航空航天機械工廠中的房間生產的，該工廠中的房間還為國際空間站生產過零件，它能以 30 度角完美地固定刀片，並將刀片伸出僅 0.0013 英寸，小於人類頭髮的寬度。

In classic TLDR style, that's important for three reasons.

按照經典的 TLDR 風格，這一點很重要，原因有三。

Those fancy blade cartridges aren't necessarily designed to provide a better experience for shaving.

那些花哨的刀片盒並不一定能提供更好的剃鬚體驗。

Instead, Henson's razor takes standard razor blades that cost just 10 cents each, meaning that while the initial handle might be more expensive, in the long run you'll save a ton of cash.

相反，Henson 的刮鬚刀使用的是每片僅需 10 美分的標準刮鬚刀片，這意味著雖然最初的刀柄可能會貴一些，但從長遠來看，你會省下一大筆錢。

Secondly, it's far better for the environment to be using individual blades, rather than joining the 2 billion razor cartridges thrown away every year in the US alone, with Henson's products containing no plastic at all, even in their packaging.

其次，使用單獨的刀片比每年僅在美國就扔掉 20 億個刮鬚刀盒對環境要好得多，Henson 的產品即使在包裝上也不含任何塑膠。

Finally, this superb engineering and precise blade tech just provides an incredible shave.

最後，精湛的工程設計和精確的刀片技術帶來了令人難以置信的剃鬚體驗。

If you want to try it out, click the link in the description, then add a razor and 100 blades to your cart.

如果您想試用，請點擊描述中的鏈接，然後在購物車中添加一把刮鬚刀和 100 片刀片。

 Once you've done that, use our discount code TLDR at checkout, and you'll get all of those blades totally free. you

完成上述操作後，在結賬時使用我們的折扣代碼 TLDR，您將免費獲得所有這些刀片。