Name: 中國經濟能否經受住特朗普 2.0 的考驗？ (Can China's Economy Survive Trump 2.0?)
Uploaded: 2024-11-14T16:45:35.000Z
Duration: 8 min 41 s

This video is brought to you by Brilliant.

The Chinese economy isn't having a good time.

Despite a protracted deflationary slump, the CCP have refused to heed the advice of the IMF and others to spend their way out of the current crisis and boost domestic demand, for fear of re-inflating their various bubbles.

儘管通貨緊縮長期低迷，但中共仍拒絕聽從國際貨幣基金組織和其他機構的建議，以消費擺脫當前危機，刺激內需，因為他們擔心各種保麗龍會再次膨脹。

Unfortunately for Beijing, Trump's re-election threatens to make things quite a bit worse.

對中國政府來說，不幸的是，特朗普的再次當選可能會讓情況變得更糟。

So in this video we're going to take a look at Trump's tariff-centric China policy, why it aggravates the CCP's pre-existing dilemma over stimulus, and what might happen next.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們將瞭解特朗普以關稅為中心的對華政策，它為何加劇了中國共產黨在刺激經濟方面原有的困境，以及接下來可能會發生什麼。

Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos.

在我們開始之前，如果您還沒有訂閱，請考慮訂閱並按鈴，以便在我們發佈新視頻時及時收到通知。

When he first came onto the political scene in 2015, one of Trump's big talking points was China.

2015 年，特朗普剛登上政治舞臺時，他的一個重要話題就是中國。

Trump was a vocal critic of the fact that the US ran and still runs a large bilateral trade deficit with China.

特朗普對美國過去和現在都與中國存在鉅額雙邊貿易逆差的事實提出了強烈責備。

In other words, that the US imports more goods from China than China does from the US.

換句話說，美國從中國進口的商品多於中國從美國進口的商品。

Since its entry into the global economic system in the 80s, China had always run a trade surplus with the US, but it really ballooned in the 2000s and was running at about $350 billion when Trump took office in 2016.

自上世紀 80 年代進入全球經濟體系以來，中國一直對美國保持貿易順差，但到了 2000 年代，貿易順差真正膨脹起來，2016 年特朗普上臺時，貿易順差達到約 3500 億美元。

During the 2016 campaign, Trump promised to remedy this imbalance with tariffs.

2016 年競選期間，特朗普承諾用關稅來彌補這種不平衡。

And during a meeting with the New York Times editorial board in January 2016, he even suggested a flat 45% tariff on all Chinese imports into the US.

而在2016年1月與《紐約時報》編輯委員會會面時，他甚至建議對所有中國進口到美國的商品統一徵收45%的關稅。

The thinking here was that by making Chinese imports more expensive for American consumers, tariffs would reduce the amount of Chinese stuff that Americans imported, and encourage them to buy American-made stuff instead, simultaneously reducing the bilateral trade deficit and also rejuvenating American manufacturing by creating new demand for American-made goods, albeit at some cost to the consumer, given that these goods would probably be more expensive than their Chinese equivalents.

當時的想法是，通過使中國進口商品對美國消費者來說更加昂貴，關稅將減少美國人進口中國商品的數量，並鼓勵他們購買美國製造的商品，從而同時減少雙邊貿易逆差，並通過創造對美國製造商品的新需求來振興美國製造業。

Or else why would they need tariffs to be competitive?

否則，它們為什麼需要關稅來提高競爭力？

In the end though, Trump's tariffs weren't as dramatic as he implied they would be during the campaign.

但最終，特朗普的關稅並沒有像他在競選期間暗示的那樣引人注目。

Trump began applying tariffs to an ever-expanding list of Chinese goods in July 2018, with the tariff rate ranging between 7.5% and 25%.

特朗普於2018年7月開始對不斷擴大的中國商品清單徵收關稅，關稅稅率在7.5%至25%之間。

By the end of his presidency, Trump had imposed tariffs averaging about 20% on around $380 billion worth of Chinese goods, representing about 75% of the $540 billion or so worth of Chinese goods that the US imported from China in 2018.

截至其總統任期結束時，特朗普已對價值約3800億美元的中國商品加徵了平均約20%的關稅，約佔2018年美國從中國進口的價值約5400億美元中國商品的75%。

However, because China responded with its own tariffs, and the US began importing different goods from China than the ones that Trump had imposed tariffs on, the overall trade deficit didn't change that much.

然而，由於中國以自己的關稅作為迴應，而且美國開始從中國進口不同於特朗普加徵關稅的商品，是以總體貿易逆差並沒有發生太大變化。

It actually rose from $375 billion in 2017 to $418 billion in 2018, before falling a bit to $340 billion in 2019.

實際上，它從 2017 年的 3750 億美元上升到 2018 年的 4180 億美元，然後在 2019 年稍稍下降到 3400 億美元。

Trump tried to close the trade deficit further by signing the so-called Phase 1 trade deal with China in January 2020, which actively required China to import a certain amount of goods from the US.

特朗普試圖進一步縮小貿易逆差，於 2020 年 1 月與中國簽署了所謂的第一階段貿易協議，積極要求中國從美國進口一定數量的商品。

But this didn't work, because, well, China just didn't stick to it.

但這並沒有奏效，因為中國沒有堅持下去。

The overall trade deficit did fall to a low of $308 billion in 2020, but this drop was probably mostly to do with the pandemic, and the deficit increased again in the next few years, reaching $382 billion in 2022.

總體貿易赤字在 2020 年確實降至 3 080 億美元的低點，但這一下降可能主要與大流行病有關，赤字在接下來的幾年中再次增加，在 2022 年達到 3 820 億美元。

While it fell a bit in 2023, it's risen by nearly 5% so far this year, compared to the same period last year, and China's overall trade surplus is due to reach a record $953 billion this year.

雖然 2023 年略有下降，但與去年同期相比，今年迄今已增長近 5%，中國今年的總體貿易順差將達到創紀錄的 9530 億美元。

For his part, Biden actually kept all of Trump's China tariffs, and even introduced new ones on a range of apparently strategic items earlier this year, including electric vehicles, solar equipment and batteries.

拜登實際上保留了特朗普對中國徵收的所有關稅，甚至在今年早些時候還對一系列明顯具有戰略意義的項目徵收了新的關稅，其中包括電動汽車、太陽能設備和電池。

This shouldn't come as a total surprise, given Obama and Biden were actually pretty active critics of China's trade policies during their time in office.

鑑於奧巴馬和拜登在任期間曾積極責備中國的貿易政策，這並不令人完全感到意外。

Obama made an unprecedented 23 formal complaints to the WTO about China, and introduced anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese tyre imports way back in 2009.

奧巴馬史無前例地向世貿組織正式投訴中國 23 次，並早在 2009 年就對中國進口輪胎徵收反傾銷關稅。

Anyway, true to form, Trump has promised to take things to the next level.

不管怎麼說，特朗普還是一如既往地承諾將把事情推向新的高度。

He wants to expand on Biden's so-called strategic tariffs, including apparently a 200% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as a flat tariff on all Chinese goods.

他希望擴大拜登所謂的戰略關稅，其中顯然包括對中國電動汽車徵收 200% 的關稅，以及對所有中國商品徵收統一關稅。

The precise rate for this is currently unclear.

The Washington Post originally reported that it was going to be 60%, but Trump has since denied it twice, once in a Bloomberg interview where he said it would be 50%, and once on Fox News, where he confusingly said it would be more than 60%.

華盛頓郵報》最初報道說將是 60%，但特朗普後來兩次否認了這一說法，一次是在彭博社的採訪中，他說將是 50%，另一次是在福克斯新聞中，他令人困惑地說將超過 60%。

Assuming that China responds with tariffs of their own, this would probably be bad news for both economies, at least in the short term.

假設中國以關稅作為迴應，這對兩國經濟可能都是壞消息，至少在短期內是這樣。

LSE research suggests that a flat 60% tariff on all Chinese imports could reduce both US and Chinese GDP by about 0.7%.

倫敦政治經濟學院的研究表明，對所有中國進口商品統一徵收 60% 的關稅可使中美兩國的 GDP 減少約 0.7%。

Anyway, while 0.7% might not sound that bad, it comes at a terrible time for the Chinese economy.

總之，雖然 0.7% 聽起來並不那麼糟糕，但對中國經濟來說卻是一個糟糕的時刻。

For context, China is currently struggling through a long-running economic crisis, characterised by weak domestic demand and low consumer confidence.

中國目前正處於長期經濟危機之中，國內需求疲軟，消費者信心不足。

To make up for this weak domestic demand, the Chinese economy has had to rely more and more on foreign demand, i.e. exports, which is why their trade surplus is currently surging.

為了彌補國內需求的疲軟，中國經濟不得不越來越多地依賴國外需求，即出口，這也是中國目前貿易順差激增的原因。

Trump's tariffs would therefore adversely affect the Chinese economy in two ways.

是以，特朗普的關稅措施將從兩個方面對中國經濟產生不利影響。

First, unless China can find new markets to replace the US, the tariffs would mean less demand for Chinese exports, which is currently the only thing keeping the Chinese economy ticking along.

首先，除非中國能找到替代美國的新市場，否則關稅將意味著對中國出口產品的需求減少，而這正是目前維持中國經濟運轉的唯一動力。

And second, it would exacerbate the confidence problem, as Chinese businesses and households hunker down in preparation for any Trump-related turbulence, which would mean even weaker domestic demand and possibly deflation.

其次，這會加劇信心問題，因為中國企業和家庭會縮手縮腳，準備應對任何與特朗普有關的動盪，這將意味著國內需求更加疲軟，甚至可能出現通貨緊縮。

This leaves the CCP with a more acute version of the dilemma they were already facing.

這使中國共產黨原本就面臨的困境更加尖銳。

Whether or not they should use fiscal stimulus, in other words, government spending, to restart the domestic economy.

他們是否應該使用財政刺激手段，換句話說，就是政府支出，來重新啟動國內經濟。

So far, the answer has been no, because the CCP worry that stimulus would reflate China's dangerously large housing bubble.

到目前為止，答案是否定的，因為中國共產黨擔心刺激政策會使中國危險的房地產保麗龍再次膨脹。

But Trump's incoming tariffs, and the associated risk of a Japan-style deflationary crisis, makes this decision more difficult.

但特朗普即將徵收的關稅，以及與之相關的日本式通貨緊縮危機的風險，使得這一決定變得更加困難。

The CCP have, so far, tried to chart a middle ground.

迄今為止，中國共產黨一直在努力尋求中間道路。

On Friday, just two days after Trump's election, they announced a new stimulus package that basically lent local governments 10 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 1.4 trillion dollars, to restructure their hidden debts.

週五，就在特朗普當選兩天後，他們宣佈了一項新的經濟刺激計劃，基本上借給地方政府 10 萬億元人民幣，相當於約 1.4 萬億美元，用於重組其隱性債務。

This was supposed to boost confidence without inflating any dangerous debt bubbles, but it was met with a lukewarm reaction from investors, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5% on Monday.

這本應在不吹大任何危險債務保麗龍的情況下提振信心，但投資者對此反應冷淡，香港恆生指數週一下跌了 1.5%。

Well, there are two ways of reading this.

The first is that the CCP is still more worried about the risk of re-inflating its various bubbles than it is about Trump's tariffs, and will therefore avoid further stimulus.

首先，與特朗普的關稅相比，中共仍然更擔心各種保麗龍再次膨脹的風險，是以會避免進一步的刺激政策。

The second, however, is that the CCP are essentially saving up their fiscal firepower for when Trump actually imposes his tariffs, so that they can immediately jolt the economy out of any Trump-induced slump.

其次，中國共產黨基本上是在為特朗普真正徵收關稅積蓄財政火力，以便在特朗普引發經濟衰退時立即將其打回原形。

Now, as a TLDR viewer, it's clear that you have a thirst for learning.

現在，作為 TLDR 的觀眾，很明顯你對學習充滿了渴望。

After all, why else would you have watched a 10-minute video explaining Trump's position on China?

畢竟，要不然你怎麼會觀看一段 10 分鐘的視頻，解釋特朗普對中國的立場？

Now, if you want to continue your learning journey, you really should check out Brilliant.

現在，如果你想繼續你的學習之旅，你真的應該看看《輝煌》。

Brilliant is the online learning platform where you learn by doing, with thousands of interactive lessons in maths, data analysis, programming, and AI.

Brilliant 是一個在線學習平臺，提供數千節數學、數據分析、編程和人工智能方面的互動課程，讓您在實踐中學習。

These hands-on lessons have you comparing circuits to understand voltage and current, playing snooker to learn the rules of collision, planning your itinerary for an intergalactic music festival on a space-time diagram, and more.

在這些實踐課程中，你可以比較電路以瞭解電壓和電流，打斯諾克以學習碰撞規則，在時空圖上規劃星際音樂節的行程，等等。

That way, you'll build your natural intuition while gaining deep knowledge of scientific principles.

這樣，你就能在深入瞭解科學原理的同時，培養自己的自然直覺。

In fact, Brilliant actually recently launched tons of new data science content, all of which uses real-world data to help you see trends and make better-informed decisions.

事實上，Brilliant 最近推出了大量新的數據科學內容，所有這些內容都使用真實世界的數據，幫助你洞察趨勢，做出更明智的決策。

And don't worry, you don't need to be a world-renowned scientist to understand these courses either.

別擔心，你也不需要成為世界知名的科學家來理解這些課程。

Brilliant's courses are designed for learners of any level.

Brilliant 的課程專為任何水準的學習者設計。

Find out more and to try everything Brilliant has to offer for free for a full 30 days, visit brilliant.org forward slash tldr or click the link in the description.

欲瞭解更多資訊並免費試用 30 天 Brilliant 的所有產品，請訪問 brilliant.org forward slash tldr 或點擊描述中的鏈接。

You'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription.

您還可以享受年度高級訂閱 8 折優惠。

 Thanks for your support and thanks to Brilliant for supporting this video.

感謝您的支持，感謝 Brilliant 對本視頻的支持。