You are the worst government we've ever seen.

你們是我們見過的最糟糕的政府。

The Australian dream is about people owning houses.

澳大利亞人的夢想就是擁有房子。

The Australian dream is dying.

澳洲夢正在消亡。

This idea of encouraging people to buy a house when you're young and accumulate wealth over time has made Australians the fourth richest people on earth.

這種鼓勵人們在年輕時買房並逐漸積累財富的理念，使澳大利亞人成為全球第四富有的人。

But their housing market is on fire.

但他們的房地產市場卻如火如荼。

The median cost of a house doubled from under half a million in 2011 to nearly 1 million in 2024.

房屋成本中位數從 2011 年的不足 50 萬翻了一番，到 2024 年接近 100 萬。

And wages didn't keep up.

而工資卻跟不上。

Australia is a massive country, roughly the size of the United States without Alaska.

澳洲幅員遼闊，面積與不含阿拉斯加的美國相當。

But they only have five large cities.

但他們只有五個大城市。

Sydney and Melbourne account for 40% of their total population.

雪梨和墨爾本的人口占其總人口的 40%。

And together with Adelaide, they're on the list of 10 least affordable cities in the world, where it costs upwards of 10 times the annual income to buy a house.

與阿德萊德一起，它們被列入世界上最負擔不起的 10 個城市名單，在這些城市買房的費用是年收入的 10 倍以上。

So more people are looking to rent.

是以，越來越多的人開始租房。

Every place you go, there's like 20 people lined up out the door.

每到一個地方，都會有 20 多人在門外排隊。

It is extreme but not uncommon to see dozens of people waiting in line for inspections.

數十人排隊等候檢查的情況雖然極端，但並不少見。

This demand is one of the reasons why rents are now spinning out of control.

這種需求是房租失控的原因之一。

Our rent went up yesterday by 35%.

我們的房租昨天漲了 35%。

Placing the Australian dream of buying a house even further out of reach.

這讓澳大利亞人買房的夢想更加遙不可及。

This is Australia's housing crisis with hindsight.

這就是澳洲的住房危機。

Please tell me I'm not the only one that feels like life in Australia right now is just so much freaking harder than it was even two, three years ago.

請告訴我，我不是唯一一個覺得現在的澳洲生活比兩、三年前艱難得多的人。

Across the Western world, the housing market is under stress.

在整個西方世界，住房市場都面臨著壓力。

But there is something fundamentally different about Australia.

但澳洲有一些根本不同的地方。

I am nearly 27 years old.

我已經快 27 歲了。

And today I am moving back in with my parents.

今天，我又搬回父母家住了。

The demand for rental properties is insane.

對出租房的需求非常瘋狂。

We didn't expect this.

我們沒想到會這樣。

The realtor made them wait for 30 minutes and judge for yourself if this apartment is worth it.

房產經紀人讓他們等了 30 分鐘，你自己判斷一下這套公寓值不值得買。

On Facebook marketplace, one landlord in Queensland was advertising single beds in shipping containers for $200 per week.

在 "臉書 "市場上，昆士蘭州的一位房東以每週 200 美元的價格為海運貨櫃裡的單人床打廣告。

Another landlord offered his veranda.

另一位房東提供了他的陽臺。

So what's the deal with privacy between your sunny bedroom here and the rest of the unit?

那麼，這裡的陽光臥室與單元其他地方之間的私密性如何呢？

What makes Australia's situation different is that they used to be the top of the class in terms of affordability, the percentage of people who owned their house, and they had fewer disadvantaged neighborhoods.

澳洲的情況之所以不同，是因為他們曾經在經濟可負擔性、擁有住房的人口比例以及弱勢社區數量等方面名列前茅。

But that is changing.

但這種情況正在發生變化。

In the 1950s, Australia was doing well.

20 世紀 50 年代，澳洲發展勢頭良好。

They had some of the best living standards in the world and the economy was growing.

他們擁有世界上最好的生活水準，經濟也在不斷增長。

This is when the great Australian dream was popularized.

偉大的澳洲夢就是從那時開始流行起來的。

The ideal became to own a detached house on a quarter acre block in the suburbs with a garden and a Holden.

在郊區擁有一棟佔地四分之一英畝的獨立別墅，帶一個花園和一輛霍爾登（Holden）汽車，這就是我的理想。

The true Australian car.

真正的澳洲汽車

It now became affordable to own a car and there was a demand for space.

現在，擁有一輛汽車變得越來越經濟實惠，對空間也有了需求。

This led Australian cities to spread out.

這導致澳洲城市向外擴展。

Today, Melbourne is six times larger than London, but with fewer inhabitants.

如今，墨爾本的面積是倫敦的六倍，但居民人數卻比倫敦少。

Sydney is even more extreme.

雪梨的情況更為極端。

It is 14 times larger than Berlin, but with only 2 million more inhabitants.

它的面積是柏林的 14 倍，但居民卻只比柏林多 200 萬。

The government stimulated home ownership with policies like the first homeowner grant.

政府通過第一房主補助金等政策來刺激住房所有權。

All these efforts worked.

所有這些努力都奏效了。

Home ownership jumped from 52% in 1950 to a peak of 71% in 1968.

住房擁有率從 1950 年的 52% 躍升至 1968 年的 71%。

This happened in other countries as well.

這種情況也發生在其他國家。

But Australia was top of the class.

但澳洲是一流的。

The great Australian dream is to believe that home ownership will lead to a better and more prosperous life.

澳大利亞人的偉大夢想就是相信，擁有住房將帶來更美好、更富裕的生活。

This was backed up by government policies that kept housing affordable and within reach.

而政府的政策也為其提供了支持，使人們能夠負擔得起住房，並且觸手可及。

Before we dive into this dramatic reversal, a quick word from my sponsor.

在我們深入探討這一戲劇性的逆轉之前，我想先聽我的贊助人說幾句話。

When I finish working today, I will most likely relax a little bit and watch some Netflix.

今天工作結束後，我很可能會放鬆一下，看看 Netflix。

But did you know the catalog that you see is just a fraction of what they have?

但你知道嗎，你所看到的目錄只是它們的一小部分？

ExpressVPN, the sponsor of today's video, routes your internet through a country of your choice.

ExpressVPN 是今天視頻的贊助商，它可以讓你通過自己選擇的國家上網。

For example, if you want to watch France but you live in the United States, it's not going to be on Netflix.

例如，如果你想看法國的節目，但你住在美國，那麼 Netflix 上就不會有。

But you can use ExpressVPN to connect to the UK and bam, there it is.

但是，你可以使用 ExpressVPN 連接到英國，然後 "咣噹 "一聲，它就在那裡了。

You can connect to over 100 countries, unblocking all content that's available on 50 streaming platforms.

您可以連接到 100 多個國家，解除對 50 個流媒體平臺上所有內容的屏蔽。

This works on your smart TV, but also on your phone, laptop, or tablet.

它不僅可以在智能電視上使用，還可以在手機、筆記本電腦或平板電腦上使用。

And a subscription is for 8 devices.

一個訂閱可用於 8 臺設備。

I'm only using it on 3, so that gives me 5 devices to give away to friends.

我只在 3 臺設備上使用，這樣就有 5 臺設備可以送給朋友。

This is one of the best-reviewed VPNs out there.

這是目前評價最好的 VPN 之一。

On CNET, ExpressVPN received a score of 8.8, making it their number one VPN.

在 CNET 上，ExpressVPN 獲得了 8.8 分的高分，成為其排名第一的 VPN。

Go to expressvpn.com slash hindsight to get 3 months for free.

請訪問 expressvpn.com slash hindsight，獲取 3 個月的免費服務。

This gives you full access to all the subscriptions you pay for, and it keeps your data protected.

這樣，您就可以完全訪問您付費訂閱的所有內容，並保護您的數據。

Okay, so thanks again ExpressVPN for sponsoring this video.

好了，再次感謝 ExpressVPN 贊助本視頻。

And let's go back to the video.

讓我們回到視頻。

So, housing is a fundamental part of the Australian way of life.

是以，住房是澳洲生活方式的基本組成部分。

Their houses used to be exceptionally affordable, and they had high rates of home ownership.

過去，他們的房屋價格特別實惠，住房擁有率也很高。

That all turned upside down, and this is now a political issue.

這一切都顛倒了過來，現在這成了一個政治問題。

Now, we told you at the time, of course, that Labor's housing plan was all pie-in-the-sky stuff.

當然，我們當時告訴過你們，工黨的住房計劃完全是空中樓閣。

Politicians and commentators will offer dozens of explanations that are in line with their political goals.

政治家和評論家會提出幾十種符合其政治目標的解釋。

Yeah, the housing crisis, Andrew, is a crisis entirely of the government's own making. 2025 is election year, which turns on the heat.

是啊，住房危機，安德魯，完全是政府自己造成的危機。2025年是大選年，這也讓危機變得更加嚴重。

It all comes from high immigration, have no doubt about it.

毫無疑問，這一切都源於高度移民。

But let's back up a bit.

不過，讓我們倒退一下。

Where did it actually go wrong?

究竟哪裡出了問題？

There was a major shift of priorities in the 1980s, from seeing housing primarily as a fundamental human right, towards investing in housing for profit.

20 世紀 80 年代，工作重點發生了重大轉變，從主要將住房視為一項基本人權轉變為投資住房牟利。

The government incentivized people to buy a second home, and to put this on the market through rent.

政府鼓勵人們購買第二套住房，並通過租房將其投放市場。

This increased the number of investors on the market, increasing demand, and thus raising prices.

這增加了市場上的投資者數量，增加了需求，從而提高了價格。

Negative viewing of property has been super effective at making a small army of well-off Australians even richer.

對房產的負面評價在使一小部分富裕的澳大利亞人變得更加富有方面發揮了巨大作用。

It is contested to what extent these policies affected housing, but especially on the left, it is often criticized.

這些政策在多大程度上影響了住房問題還存在爭議，但尤其是在左翼，它經常受到責備。

The reason why it's bad is that it actually gives people an incentive to take out a loan, to compete with people who are buying just for a house to live in, and it massively distorts housing prices.

之所以說它不好，是因為它實際上刺激了人們去貸款，與那些只為買房居住的人競爭，從而嚴重扭曲了房價。

But this is part of a much larger puzzle.

但這只是一個更大難題的一部分。

Interest rates have been slashed to yet another record low.

利率已降至歷史新低。

We could very well see another quarter percent rate cut in the coming months.

未來幾個月，我們很可能會看到再次降息四分之一個百分點。

This last decade was a wild ride.

過去的十年是一段狂野的旅程。

Interest rates dropped and dropped even further, with the goal to support economic growth and to maintain inflation.

利率一降再降，目的是支持經濟增長和維持通貨膨脹。

A historic drop in interest rates today, with the Reserve Bank slashing the cash rate to virtually zero.

今天，儲備銀行將現金利率降至幾乎為零，實現了歷史性的降息。

During the pandemic, like in many other countries, they dropped to nearly zero.

在大流行病期間，與許多其他國家一樣，這一數字幾乎降為零。

These extremely low rates made it easier for people to get a loan for a house, which meant that it increased demand, thus raised prices.

這些極低的利率使人們更容易獲得購房貸款，這意味著增加了需求，從而抬高了房價。

On top of this, the government spent billions of dollars on programs that intended to help low- and middle-income families to buy their first house.

除此之外，政府還花費數十億美元用於旨在幫助中低收入家庭購買第一套住房的計劃。

And it's harder for first-home buyers particularly to get into the marketplace, so that $50,000, that will really help them.

特別是對於首次置業者來說，進入市場的難度更大，是以這 5 萬美元將真正幫助他們。

This helped a lot of Australians, but it also led to more demand.

這幫助了很多澳大利亞人，但也導致了更多的需求。

And you see where I'm going with this.

你明白我的意思了吧。

A lot of factors led to more demand, and this wouldn't be a problem if it was properly balanced by more supply.

許多因素導致了更多的需求，如果有更多的供應來適當平衡，這就不是問題。

But that's one of the things that went wrong.

但這也是出錯的原因之一。

The number of government-sponsored public houses that were built dropped from a peak of 20,000 in 1978 to just 3,000 in 2023.

政府資助建造的公共房屋數量從 1978 年高峰期的 20 000 所下降到 2023 年的僅 3 000 所。

These houses are intended for people with low incomes, and they add a layer of security against homelessness.

這些房屋是為低收入者準備的，它們為無家可歸者提供了一層保障。

Demand for this type of housing was increasing, but government investment significantly declined.

對這類住房的需求不斷增加，但政府投資卻大幅下降。

Another hurdle holding back construction was an increasing amount of red tape.

阻礙施工的另一個障礙是越來越多的繁文縟節。

Surely the answer to our housing crisis is governments, as you say, at all levels, local, state, and federal, getting out of the way, so the private sector can satisfy that demand.

正如你所說，解決住房危機的辦法當然是各級政府，包括地方政府、州政府和聯邦政府，不要再礙手礙腳，這樣私營部門才能滿足需求。

All those regulations drastically limit the private sector.

所有這些規定都極大地限制了私營部門的發展。

But there's more to it.

但還有其他原因。

That's right, Chris, and certainly the biggest issue that's confronting the industry at the moment is about actually getting land ready for building in the first place.

沒錯，克里斯，目前建築業面臨的最大問題無疑是如何在第一時間為建築用地做好準備。

One of Australia's challenges is that most demand is for houses near the inner cities.

澳洲面臨的挑戰之一是，大部分需求都集中在市中心附近的房屋。

This is where you'll find the best job opportunities, schools, and infrastructure.

在這裡，您可以找到最好的工作機會、學校和基礎設施。

But there is much local resistance.

但當地的阻力很大。

Shame!

真丟人

Premier, shame!

總理，慚愧！

Shame!

真丟人

Shame!

真丟人

Shame!

真丟人

Plans to build high-density housing is often met with protest. 20-story apartment towers in your streets!

建造高密度住宅的計劃常常遭到抗議。20 層高的公寓樓出現在你的街道上！

They are demonstrating how we got here in the first place, why the status quo is not an option.

他們正在展示我們當初是如何走到這一步的，為什麼維持現狀不是一種選擇。

What homeless person can afford to pay a million dollars for an apartment in Brighton?

哪個無家可歸的人能付得起一百萬美元在布萊頓買一套公寓？

They can't.

他們不能。

Most people want more housing, but not in our backyard is the resounding chorus.

大多數人都希望有更多的住房，但不是在我們的後院。

On top of this, there are supply chain issues and a shortage of workers.

除此之外，還有供應鏈問題和工人短缺問題。

We've got shortages of labor, shortages of resources in key critical infrastructure.

我們的勞動力短缺，關鍵基礎設施資源短缺。

These factors put together resulted in insufficient supply, thus higher prices.

這些因素加在一起，導致供應不足，價格上漲。

While all of this was going on, Australia in the past two years led in a record number of immigrants.

就在這一切發生的同時，澳洲在過去兩年中接納的移民人數創下了歷史新高。

Their population growth is almost entirely driven by overseas migration.

他們的人口增長几乎完全由海外移民驅動。

It slowed significantly during the pandemic to just 25,000, but then it reached a record high with a peak in September 2023.

在大流行期間，這一數字明顯放緩，僅為 25 000，但隨後在 2023 年 9 月達到最高峰，創下歷史新高。

Critics argue that this was irresponsible, because it coincided with extreme difficulties in the construction sector.

批評者認為這是不負責任的，因為當時建築業正處於極端困難之中。

It was now 40% more expensive to build a home than it was before the pandemic, and supply restraints led to a building to take 18% longer to be completed.

與大流行之前相比，現在建造房屋的成本要高出 40%，供應限制導致建築完工時間延長了 18%。

This added even more demand when supply was low, raising prices.

這在供應量低的情況下增加了更多的需求，從而抬高了價格。

We have a crazy housing crisis here in Australia, and they've just let in 105,000 immigrants.

在澳洲，我們面臨著瘋狂的住房危機，而他們剛剛接納了 10.5 萬名移民。

Can someone tell me where the f*** these people are living?

誰能告訴我這些人到底住在哪裡？

Immigration can help Australia fill gaps in its labor force, but it's also adding to already mounting domestic pressures.

移民可以幫助澳洲填補勞動力缺口，但同時也增加了本已日益加劇的國內壓力。

I, for the life of me, cannot understand why this labor government has just slammed the door shut on this mass immigration until we've got enough housing for Australians right now.

我實在無法理解，為什麼工黨政府在我們現在還沒有足夠的住房供澳大利亞人居住之前，就關上了大規模移民的大門。

In 2024, it became an increasingly political topic.

2024 年，它成為一個日益重要的政治話題。

The peak of record immigration coincided with five consecutive quarters of a shrinking GDP per capita.

創紀錄的移民高峰與連續五個季度的人均國內生產總值縮水相吻合。

The longest recorded decline in Australia's history.

這是澳洲歷史上有記錄以來最長的一次衰退。

It also coincided with a record increase of what Australians are paying for rent.

與此同時，澳大利亞人支付的房租也出現了創紀錄的增長。

This is all part of a worrying long-term trend.

這都是令人擔憂的長期趨勢的一部分。

In 1971, these were the average house prices in Australia's main cities adjusted for inflation.

1971 年，澳洲主要城市的平均房價根據通貨膨脹率進行了調整。

By 2024, they had more than quadrupled.

到 2024 年，這些數據翻了兩番多。

This is happening all around the world, but in Australia, it's more extreme.

這種情況在世界各地都在發生，但在澳洲更為極端。

In 1987, a house in Australia cost 2.8 times the annual income, similar to other countries.

1987 年，澳洲的房屋價格是年收入的 2.8 倍，與其他國家相似。

By 2019, this was up to 6.9 times, outpacing the US, Canada, and the UK.

到 2019 年，這一數字上升到 6.9 倍，超過了美國、加拿大和英國。

But in 2023, it went up to 9.7 times the annual income, the highest in the world after Hong Kong.

但到 2023 年，這一數字上升到年收入的 9.7 倍，僅次於香港，居世界首位。

The great Australian dream of owning a house and accumulating wealth over time is getting out of reach.

澳大利亞人擁有一套房子並長期積累財富的偉大夢想正變得遙不可及。

A full-time worker on a minimum wage now spends on average 68% of their income on rent.

現在，領取最低工資的全職工人平均要將收入的 68% 用於支付房租。

This makes it impossible to save up for a down payment on a house.

這樣就不可能攢夠買房的首付。

This increases the number of people that will always rent, while homeowners are becoming incredibly wealthy.

這樣一來，租房的人越來越多，而房主卻變得無比富有。

The fear is that this can create a two-class society.

人們擔心這會造成兩級社會。

Wealthy homeowners against disadvantaged renters.

富裕房主對抗弱勢租房者。

In 2025, there are elections.

2025 年將舉行選舉。

We are the party of the great Australian dream, and we are going to keep that dream in reach of the next generation of Australians.

我們是實現偉大澳洲夢的政黨，我們將讓下一代澳大利亞人能夠實現這一夢想。

Prime Minister Al-Banisi focuses on supply.

巴尼西總理重點關注供應問題。

The fundamental answer to all of this, of course, is supply, building more homes.

當然，解決所有這些問題的根本辦法是供應，即建造更多的住宅。

In 2024, he announced a $32 billion plan to reduce the cost of housing.

2024 年，他宣佈了一項 320 億美元的降低住房成本計劃。

This is a plan to address the housing crisis.

這是一項解決住房危機的計劃。

Edit Centre is a plan to build 1.2 million new homes over the next five years.

Edit Centre 是一項在未來五年內建造 120 萬套新住宅的計劃。

This is new money right now for social housing.

這是目前用於社會住房的新資金。

But his critics are skeptical.

但他的批評者對此持懷疑態度。

Now they announce, oh, we'll build 1.2 million.

現在他們宣佈，哦，我們將建造 120 萬個。

Now, 1.2 million houses they're going to build in five years in Australia, where are you going to get the builders from?

現在，澳洲將在五年內建造 120 萬套房屋，你從哪裡找來建築商？

The RBA has already increased interest rates to almost where they were in 2011.

澳洲央行已將利率上調至 2011 年的水準。

This makes mortgages more expensive, and this should result in less demand.

這使得抵押貸款更加昂貴，從而導致需求減少。

The causes of this crisis, we know what they are.

我們知道這場危機的起因是什麼。

There's a lack of building of public housing.

公共住房建設不足。

There's also these massive tax breaks.

還有這些大規模的稅收減免。

The debate about tax breaks is once again rekindled.

關於減稅的爭論再次重燃。

So is the debate about immigration.

關於移民的辯論也是如此。

And at the same time that Australia is building a record fewer homes, they've brought in a million new migrants.

就在澳洲建造的房屋數量創下歷史新低的同時，他們又引進了一百萬新移民。

It is not about one of these issues, nor is it about all of them.

這不是其中一個問題，也不是所有問題。

It is about balancing supply and demand, and this can be done in many ways.

這關係到供需平衡，可以通過多種方式實現。

You could lower immigration, accept all the good and bad that this will bring, and demand will go down.

你可以降低移民人數，接受由此帶來的所有好處和壞處，這樣需求就會下降。

You could also overhaul the planning restrictions and accept the consequences, which might stimulate supply.

你也可以全面修改規劃限制，並接受由此帶來的後果，這可能會刺激供應。

It is not possible, nor desirable, to include all factors and possibilities in a debate about housing.

在關於住房問題的辯論中，不可能也不應該包含所有的因素和可能性。

That's why politicians and commentators often simplify the issues into a couple of talking points that resonate with their voters and viewers.

這就是為什麼政治家和評論家經常將問題簡化為幾個談話要點，以引起選民和觀眾的共鳴。

This is, of course, happening all around the world.

當然，這種情況正在世界各地發生。

But Australia is unique in that it transformed from having one of the best and most affordable housing markets into one of the worst and least affordable.

但澳洲的獨特之處在於，它從最好、最經濟實惠的住房市場之一，變成了最差、最不經濟實惠的住房市場之一。

And then perhaps nowhere else, homeownership is so intimately connected with their national identity.

也許在其他任何地方，房屋所有權都與他們的民族身份密切相關。

A reasoned foal asked the question, do you think owning your own home is part of the Australian way of life?

一匹理性的小馬駒提出了這樣一個問題：你認為擁有自己的房子是澳洲生活方式的一部分嗎？

And 93% answered, yes.

93%的人回答 "是"。

To the follow-up question, are you concerned about being able to buy a house during your lifetime?

對於後續問題，您是否擔心在有生之年買不起房子？

68% answered, a lot or a little.

68%的人回答 "很多 "或 "一點點"。

It is now up to politicians to convince Australians on how to best address this issue.

現在就看政治家們如何說服澳大利亞人，以最佳方式解決這一問題了。