My name is Amos and welcome back to the Dividend Compounder Show.

我是阿莫斯，歡迎回到《紅利複利秀》。

So right now we're going to be looking at Broadcom.

是以，現在我們將關注 Broadcom。

In one single month, they are up by 36%, just shy of it.

在一個月內，它們增長了 36%，只差一點點。

Please don't be a wise guy.

請不要自作聰明。

And I want to tell you that I'm a special type of stupid.

我想告訴你，我是一個特殊類型的傻瓜。

That used to be an investor of Broadcom, but I sold after getting a 100% rate of return.

我曾經是博通公司的投資者，但在獲得 100%的回報率後我就賣掉了。

And when I made that transaction, it was in the beginning of the pandemic, somewhere like right here, I bought it for about like $26 a share prior to the stock split, and then I sold it at around like right there.

當我做這筆交易時，是在大流行病的初期，就在這裡的某個地方，在股票分割之前，我大約以每股 26 美元的價格買入，然後我大約在這裡賣出。

And I was like, dude, I'm so smart.

我當時想，哥們兒，我太聰明瞭。

Little did I know how much further it would go up, but Hey, they say profit is profit and you're right, I should be happy that I walked away in the green.

我不知道它還會漲多少，但嘿，他們說利潤就是利潤，你說得沒錯，我應該為自己的盈利感到高興。

However, on the other hand, if you are currently bag holding advanced micro devices, AKA AMD, who is currently negative 8% year to date, then your butthole is probably sweaty as it's flirting with a new 52 week low.

不過，另一方面，如果你目前持有先進微設備公司（又名 AMD）的股票，而該公司今年迄今為止的業績為負 8%，那麼你的屁股可能會冒汗，因為它正在徘徊在 52 周的新低。

I think the lowest was $121 right now they're $126.

最低價是 121 美元，現在是 126 美元。

And you're wondering, is the stock going to drop even further?

你會想，股價還會繼續下跌嗎？

And if it helps you to sleep at night, let me tell you a little something about myself.

如果這有助於你晚上入睡，讓我告訴你一些關於我自己的事情。

I'm a value investor that just bought into AMD because I think that it's undervalued.

我是一個價值投資者，剛剛買入 AMD，因為我認為它的價值被低估了。

So if a Warren Buffett mindset of a guy likes AMD, you're probably in good company, unless of course, investing into AMD is like signing up for money destroyer as they say, but Hey, in this video, I'm going to present my case as to why I'm choosing to buy AMD and not shares of Broadcom.

當然，除非投資 AMD 就像人們常說的 "金錢毀滅者"，否則你可能是個好夥伴。不過，在本視頻中，我將介紹我為什麼選擇購買 AMD 而不是博通股票的原因。

Ticker symbol AVGO, unless you're delusional, like the kind of guy that walks around telling everyone that they're six foot when deep down inside on a good day, you're really five foot seven, I think it would just all agree that Broadcom is an amazing company because check this out, their adjusted stock price, total return, because performance matters in a one single year, you would have gotten back 109%.

股票代碼 AVGO，除非你有妄想症，就像那種走來走去告訴大家自己身高六英尺的人，而在好的時候，你的內心深處其實只有五英尺七英寸，否則我想大家都會同意 Broadcom 是一家了不起的公司，因為看看這個，他們調整後的股價，總回報率，因為業績很重要，在一年內，你就能獲得 109% 的回報。

If we zoom out to five years, then the total return is 700%.

如果我們把時間拉長到五年，那麼總回報率就是 700%。

And if we go back even further for 10 years, then the total return for Broadcom is 2,800%.

如果再往前追溯 10 年，博通的總回報率為 2,800% 。

That's bonkers.

太瘋狂了

That's crazy money.

這筆錢太瘋狂了。

The funny thing is Broadcom was always known as a wireless chips company that possessed a ton of patents and designs for mobile devices.

有趣的是，Broadcom 一直以無線芯片公司著稱，擁有大量移動設備專利和設計。

They're kind of like Qualcomm back in the day.

他們有點像當年的高通公司。

And when I say back in the day, I'm talking like three to four years ago.

我說的當年，指的是三四年前。

And when they did that, they were a solid company with reliable operations, and they had one of the best dividend profiles out there.

當他們這樣做的時候，他們是一家營運可靠的公司，也是股息情況最好的公司之一。

And as we saw their stock performs pretty well, but ever since Broadcom made this pivot into AI and data centers, their growth story has taken three steroid syringes into their left butt cheek because check this out.

正如我們所看到的，他們的股票表現相當不錯，但自從博通進軍人工智能和數據中心後，他們的增長故事已經在左屁股上打了三針類固醇，因為看看這個。

They recently posted their earnings and it was nothing short of crazy.

他們最近公佈了自己的收益，簡直是瘋了。

Their revenue grew by 51% year over year of which AI revenue grew 220% year over year.

其收入同比增長 51%，其中人工智能收入同比增長 220%。

So they posted $14 billion in just three months.

是以，他們在短短三個月內就公佈了 140 億美元。

No, we're not talking about Apple or Google or Tesla.

不，我們說的不是蘋果、谷歌或特斯拉。

We're talking about Broadcom and they also hiked their dividend by 11% year over year.

我們現在談論的是博通公司，他們也將股息同比提高了 11%。

So for you dividend investors out there, they got that covered and some analysts are even predicting and casting a forecast that Broadcom's AI chips are going to see revenue growth of 40% year over year until 2029, that's pretty wild.

一些分析師甚至預測，博通公司的人工智能芯片在 2029 年前的營收將同比增長 40%。

So the investing thesis for Broadcom, super bullish.

是以，博通的投資策略是超級看漲。

And as a result, right after their earnings, the stock price has taken a flight to the moon.

結果，他們的財報剛剛發佈，股價就飛上了月球。

And if you don't get it by now, wall street is absolutely bullish on semiconductor companies that are in the business of AI.

如果你現在還不明白，華爾街絕對看好從事人工智能業務的半導體公司。

Other categories of semiconductors, maybe not as much with Intel's unreliable foundry progress, right?

其他類別的半導體產品，由於英特爾代工廠不可靠的進展，可能就沒有那麼多了，不是嗎？

They're trying to make that pivot from being a CPU guy to now saying, Hey, we'll make your chips.

他們正試圖從 CPU 供應商轉變為 "嘿，我們為你生產芯片"。

Why don't you just trust us over TSM?

你為什麼不相信我們而相信 TSM？

Like, dude, you're delusional.

老兄，你有妄想症。

And on a side note, Intel is taking this all or nothing gamble of a risk.

順便提一句，英特爾正在冒著 "不成功便成仁 "的風險。

I don't think is going to work out for them because they don't really have the blueprint to do what TSM is doing.

我不認為他們會成功，因為他們並沒有 TSM 所做的藍圖。

They're trying to pivot into an entirely different new category.

他們正試圖轉向一個完全不同的新類別。

All that to say the intellectual property of AI chips and the designing of it is seen as more bullish than the ones who are trying to physically make those chips.

綜上所述，人工智能芯片的知識產權和設計者比那些試圖實際製造這些芯片的人更被看好。

Does that make sense?

有道理嗎？

And that's why when we consider TSM, they have an economic mode of production and operations and supply chain that Intel just cannot emulate.

這就是為什麼當我們考慮 TSM 時，他們的生產、營運和供應鏈的經濟模式是英特爾無法效仿的。

They can try, but they're going to burn billions of dollars trying to do what TSM is able to do.

他們可以嘗試，但要做到 TSM 能夠做到的事情，他們將燒掉數十億美元。

But anyways, the argument that I'm trying to make is that the ones that are designing AI chips are making more money than the ones that are making them.

但不管怎麼說，我想說的是，設計人工智能芯片的人比製造芯片的人賺得更多。

Case in point, look at Nvidia year to date, they're up by 178%.

舉例來說，看看 Nvidia 今年到目前為止的業績，他們增長了 178%。

And before you think the market is being irrational with Broadcom and overpricing it.

在你認為市場對 Broadcom 的定價過高，缺乏理性之前。

Dude, their finances fundamentals and balance sheet is so amazing.

老兄，他們的財務基本面和資產負債表太令人吃驚了。

Check this out.

看看這個

First off, we're going to be looking at their income statement.

首先，我們來看看他們的損益表。

When we take a look at their revenue, what investors refer to as a top line, look at the growth of it from the pandemic of 2020 onwards.

如果我們看一下他們的收入，也就是投資者所說的頂線，就會發現從 2020 年大流行開始，他們的收入就會增長。

In 2020, they posted $23 billion.

2020 年，他們的收入為 230 億美元。

Okay.

好的

That's cool.

太酷了

But as we fast forward, look at this.

但是，當我們快步向前時，看看這個。

This past year, they posted $51 billion, which means in the span of four years, they have doubled their revenue.

在過去的一年裡，他們的收入達到了 510 億美元，這意味著在四年的時間裡，他們的收入翻了一番。

However, with that said, when we take a look at their balance sheet right now, they have $9.3 billion of cash and cash equivalents on hand.

不過，話雖如此，我們看看他們現在的資產負債表，他們手頭有 93 億美元的現金和現金等價物。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Sounds fine.

聽起來不錯。

However, when we look at their debt picture, it looks kind of ugly.

然而，當我們看到他們的債務狀況時，我們會發現它看起來有點醜陋。

As we scroll down right here, the total debt right now is $67.5 billion a debt.

我們往下看，現在的債務總額是 675 億美元。

That is alarming.

這是令人震驚的。

And that is a red flag in my opinion, which means when you look at their net cash to debt ratio, they are negative $58 billion of cash, meaning they have a lot more debt than cash on hand.

在我看來，這是一個紅旗，這意味著當你看他們的淨現金與債務比率時，他們的現金為負 580 億美元，這意味著他們的債務比手頭的現金多得多。

However, when we look at their cashflow statement and the free cash flow, it is So it's kind of like they throw you with something ugly and then they give you something pretty.

不過，當我們看他們的現金流量表和自由現金流量時，就會發現他們就像先給你扔了個醜東西，然後又給了你個漂亮東西。

It's like when you're dating someone who is really skilled with their makeup, they're pretty when they're dolled up, but as soon as everything comes off, it's someone entirely new.

這就好比你在和一個化妝技術非常高超的人約會時，他們打扮得漂漂亮亮的，但一旦卸妝後，就完全是另外一個人了。

And that's what we're seeing with Broadcom.

這就是我們在博通身上看到的。

Their debt picture looks ugly, but their free cashflow situation.

他們的債務狀況看起來很糟糕，但他們的自由現金流狀況卻很好。

Phenomenal.

了不起

In 2020, they posted $11.5 billion of free cashflow.

2020 年，他們的自由現金流達到 115 億美元。

And then year over year, it grew by 15% and then it grew by 22%, uh, 8%, 10%.

然後，同比增長了 15%，然後又增長了 22%，嗯，8%，10%。

And now for the trailing 12 months, $19.4 billion of free cashflow.

而在過去的 12 個月中，自由現金流達到 194 億美元。

So all in all, I would say their cash situation kind of overrides their high debt, because when it comes down to it, if they really need to, they can spend a majority or a bulk of their cash to pay off their debt in three to four years, if they really had to do that.

是以，總的來說，我認為他們的現金狀況壓倒了他們的高額債務，因為歸根結底，如果他們真的需要的話，他們可以在三到四年內花費大部分或大部分現金來償還債務。

But I don't think they're going to do it because they're going to be investing that cash instead into R and D into recruiting the best engineers and scientists and coders around the world and to sustain their dividend, which as of right now is a 1% dividend yield, meaning for each share of Broadcom that you own, you get $2 and 36 cents a year in dividends, a payout ratio of 44%, which means it's healthy, sustainable, and they can increase it even further.

但我認為他們不會這麼做，因為他們會將這些現金投入到研發中，招募全球最優秀的工程師、科學家和編碼員，並維持他們的股息，目前的股息率為 1%，這意味著您持有的每股 Broadcom 股份每年可獲得 2 美元 36 美分的股息，派息率為 44%，這意味著它是健康的、可持續的，而且他們還可以進一步提高。

And for the past five years, they have been growing this number by 14% year over year, however, as of right now, they only grew it by 11%.

在過去的五年裡，他們的這一數字一直在以每年 14% 的速度增長，然而，截至目前，他們只增長了 11%。

So after taking into consideration Broadcom's financial situation and fundamentals, if you disagree with me, it makes perfect sense.

是以，在考慮了博通的財務狀況和基本面之後，如果你不同意我的觀點，那就完全說得通了。

Broadcom is heavy in cash.

博通擁有大量現金。

They pay a dividend, they have wide margins, and some analysts are even arguing that Broadcom is now number two in the AI race and will give Nvidia a run for their money.

它們支付紅利，利潤空間廣闊，一些分析師甚至認為，博通現在是人工智能競賽中的第二名，將與英偉達一較高下。

So I get it.

我明白了。

There's a lot to like about this company.

這家公司有很多值得稱道的地方。

However, on the other hand, when we take a look at AMD, AMD was always known as a PC chips company and was seen as the little brother that's a little ugly to Intel.

然而，反觀 AMD，AMD 一直以 PC 芯片公司著稱，被視為英特爾的 "小弟弟"。

However, they're making the same pivot to making chips for all things related to AI.

不過，他們也正在轉向為所有與人工智能相關的事物製造芯片。

Unfortunately for AMD, the market is not as bullish towards AMD because of their message and communication, but also of what they're doing.

對 AMD 而言，不幸的是，市場並不看好 AMD，這不僅是因為他們的資訊和溝通，還因為他們正在做的事情。

Their market share in the data center, GPU and CPU, not looking too good to Nvidia.

他們在數據中心、GPU 和 CPU 方面的市場份額對 Nvidia 來說並不樂觀。

However, I made a deep dive video about AMD a couple of days ago.

不過，幾天前我製作了一個關於 AMD 的深度視頻。

So watch that one for the full picture and why I would buy into AMD knowing that they're second to Nvidia.

是以，請觀看該視頻，以瞭解全貌，以及為什麼我會購買 AMD，因為我知道他們僅次於 Nvidia。

But keeping that in mind, yes, year to date or the one-year performance, trashed, right?

但考慮到這一點，是的，今年到目前為止，或者說一年的業績，毀於一旦，對嗎？

Negative 8%, meaning your money would have gone down if you would have invested into AMD in December of last year, and if we zoom out to, I don't know, three or five, I guess we'll go with five to five years out.

負 8%，這意味著如果你在去年 12 月投資 AMD，你的錢會貶值，而如果我們放大到，我不知道是 3 年還是 5 年，我想我們會選擇 5 到 5 年後。

Then the total performance for AMD stock is 200%.

那麼 AMD 股票的總業績就是 200%。

And if we zoom out even further, bird's eye view, is the company doing okay?

如果我們再放大一點，從鳥瞰的角度看，公司的經營狀況還好嗎？

10 years, then your money would have grown by 5,000%.

10 年後，您的資金將增長 5000%。

And that's because Lisa Su, the current CEO who took over in 2014, literally took this company that was trading for about what, $2 a share, and now it's currently trading for about $126 a share, so historically and in their DNA, they have been a hyper growth company that is currently going through the smallest of speed bumps and bearish sentiment, which is unusual for a company that has been seeing gains such as 5,000% in 10 years.

這是因為 2014 年接任的現任首席執行官蘇麗莎，從字面上看，她把這家每股交易價格約為 2 美元的公司，帶到了現在每股交易價格約為 126 美元的公司，所以從歷史和基因上看，他們一直是一家超高速增長的公司，目前正經歷著最小的減速帶和看跌情緒，這對於一家在 10 年內漲幅高達 5000% 的公司來說是不尋常的。

But I think this is also true when it comes to other things in life, what is hot and what is in right now usually goes through cycles and waves, meaning AMD was the hot girl two to three years ago, but as of right now, Broadcom is the one that is walking around with the biggest and juiciest butt chin and pointy elbows, meaning Broadcom as of right now, they're currently flirting with two to three hyperscalers without a concrete contract, but Wall Street is eating it up.

但我認為，生活中的其他事情也是如此，什麼是熱點，什麼是當下的熱點，通常都會經歷週期和波浪，也就是說，兩三年前 AMD 是當紅炸子雞，但現在，博通（Broadcom）才是那個頂著最大、最多汁的屁股下巴和尖尖的胳膊肘到處走的人。

Broadcom was like, Hey guys, we're talking to these people and we think it's going to go well in the future.

Broadcom 就像在說："嘿，夥計們，我們正在和這些人談，我們認為未來會很順利。

So Wall Street is baking in bullish future expectations that those contracts are going to go in Broadcom's way and that their revenue is going to multiply beyond belief because they're working with hyperscalers.

是以，華爾街看好 Broadcom 未來的發展前景，認為這些合同將對 Broadcom 有利，而且由於他們與超大規模企業合作，他們的收入將超乎想象地成倍增長。

If you don't know what a hyperscaler is, what you see on your screen right now on the right side, think of it as a cloud-based data center customer.

如果你不知道什麼是超級分壓器，你現在在螢幕右側看到的東西，可以把它看作是基於雲的數據中心客戶。

When we think about like Amazon's web services, Microsoft's Azure, Google's cloud, people that are building out data centers right now in order to meet the demand of their cloud network, if that makes sense.

亞馬遜的網絡服務、微軟的 Azure、谷歌的雲計算，這些公司都在建設數據中心，以滿足其雲網絡的需求。

And word on the street is that OpenAI and Apple are the two hyperscalers that are looking to use Broadcom as a supplier of AI chips.

有消息稱，OpenAI 和蘋果這兩家超級計算機公司正在尋求將博通作為人工智能芯片供應商。

Right.

對

That is insane.

這太瘋狂了。

Because if we know anything about OpenAI and chat GPT, it's absolutely the hottest thing in the market right now.

因為如果我們對 OpenAI 和哈拉 GPT 有所瞭解，它絕對是目前市場上最熱門的東西。

Like that one time you thought mullets looked good.

就像有一次你覺得鯔魚好看一樣。

And so you grew your hair out and you walked around with a freaking mullet, bro.

所以你就把頭髮留長了，留著個鯔魚頭到處走，兄弟。

That is disgusting.

太噁心了

Get rid of it.

把它扔掉

So yes, Broadcom's future is looking pretty bright, but I think about it like this for AMD.

是的，Broadcom 的前景非常光明，但我認為 AMD 的前景也是如此。

This is the case for AMD, right?

AMD 也是如此，對嗎？

As Intel is pooping on themselves, AMD is eating up the PC CPU market share and almost all of their data center CPU market share as well.

在英特爾自食其果的同時，AMD 正在蠶食 PC CPU 市場份額以及幾乎所有的數據中心 CPU 市場份額。

So if we consider their rapidly growing data center growth and how AMD is also taking away potential revenue from Intel, this stock is undervalued right now.

是以，如果我們考慮到其數據中心的快速增長，以及 AMD 如何從英特爾手中奪走潛在收入，那麼這隻股票現在的價值就被低估了。

I don't think the market is correctly pricing AMD.

我認為市場對 AMD 的定價並不正確。

So let's transition to the bottom line and give you my most compelling case for why AMD instead of Broadcom.

是以，讓我們轉入正題，為大家介紹我認為最有說服力的理由，即為什麼是 AMD 而不是 Broadcom。

Between the two, think about it.

在這兩者之間，想想吧。

The market is driven by hype and AI bullish fever right now, right?

現在的市場是由炒作和人工智能看漲熱推動的，對嗎？

Such as like all the cardio bunnies that bought a Peloton bike during the pandemic only to realize it's overpriced stationary equipment that's no different from the ones you see at planet fitness.

就像那些在大流行病期間買了一輛 Peloton 自行車的有氧運動兔子們一樣，到頭來才發現那不過是價格過高的固定設備，和你在 planet fitness 健身中心看到的那些沒什麼兩樣。

All I'm saying is if you really want to get a good workout in, I dare you to sell your car and use a bicycle to commute everywhere, use your own legs to get you to point A to point B.

我想說的是，如果你真的想好好鍛鍊身體，我敢說你可以賣掉你的汽車，用自行車上下班，用自己的雙腿把你從 A 點帶到 B 點。

That's what I did three and a half years ago.

三年半前我就是這麼做的。

And in the winters, I regret it every day as my snot is running down my face.

而到了冬天，我每天都會因為鼻涕流了一臉而後悔。

Anyways, jokes aside, when we take a look at Broadcom and their stock price year to date, they're up by 101%, correct?

總之，玩笑歸玩笑，我們來看看博通公司和他們的股價，今年到目前為止，他們的股價上漲了 101%，對嗎？

They have already skyrocketed.

它們已經暴漲。

How much further can it go in comparison to AMD that is beaten down and is ugly and is undesirable to the stock market.

與 AMD 相比，它還能走多遠，因為 AMD 已被打垮，醜陋不堪，不被股市看好。

AMD is basically hovering around their 52 week low case in point right now.

AMD 目前基本上在 52 周低點附近徘徊。

Broadcom trades for about $224 a share and it looks like in the pre-market it has gone up a little more.

博通公司的交易價格約為每股 224 美元，盤前似乎還漲了一點。

So let's just go ahead and say it's trading for about $228 a share.

是以，讓我們假設它的交易價格約為每股 228 美元。

After Broadcom posted their amazing earnings report, all of the analysts that follow this company, they actually revised their price targets for the company.

在博通發佈了令人驚歎的財報後，所有關注這家公司的分析師實際上都修改了公司的目標價格。

And Broadcom is still too expensive.

而 Broadcom 仍然太貴。

Meaning the average price target from wall street analysts, $218 a share.

這意味著華爾街分析師的平均目標價為每股 218 美元。

Broadcom is currently 224.

Broadcom 目前是 224.

As we scroll down, check it out.

請看下圖。

It's not just one or two or three guys.

不只是一個或兩三個人。

These four and five star analysts, the date of December 13th, look at all these revisions, right?

這些四星級和五星級分析師，在 12 月 13 日這一天，看看所有這些修訂，對嗎？

Their price targets, $250 from JP Morgan, $225 from Jefferies, $255 from Benchmark.

摩根大通的目標價為 250 美元，Jefferies 為 225 美元，Benchmark 為 255 美元。

As we scroll down, look how many revisions there were.

當我們向下滾動時，看看有多少次修改。

And not a single one of them is putting a price target of like $350 or $320 or even $300 meaning Broadcom is currently overpriced, even according to the analysts on wall street at $228 a share with an average price target of $218.

他們中沒有一個人將目標價定為 350 美元、320 美元甚至 300 美元，這意味著博通目前的定價過高，甚至根據華爾街分析師的說法，每股價格為 228 美元，平均目標價為 218 美元。

How much further can Broadcom go?

Broadcom 還能走多遠？

On the other side, when I think about AMD, I think the upside is going to be much, much higher for AMD.

另一方面，當我考慮 AMD 時，我認為 AMD 的上升空間會更大。

I know it's bold of me to say that when you're to date, AMD is down by negative 13%, very bold of me, however, currently trading for about, let's just go ahead and say one 26, when we look at the forecast and the price targets from the analysts, they're saying AMD should be worth $195 a share.

我知道我這麼說很大膽，因為到目前為止，AMD 的股價已經下跌了 13%，我這麼說非常大膽，但是，目前 AMD 的股價約為 1.26 美元，我們看看分析師的預測和目標股價，他們認為 AMD 的股價應為 195 美元一股。

And what's wild to me is that even the most bearish analysts on wall street is saying AMD is worth one 55.

最讓我吃驚的是，就連華爾街最看跌的分析師也說 AMD 值 1 55 美元。

They're currently one 26.

他們目前是一個 26.

So even according to the guy who thinks AMD is not even all that, even he thinks that AMD is undervalued, meaning from their current trading price of one 26, there's an upside of 54% in order to meet their average price target.

是以，即使是那個認為 AMD 根本不值一提的人，也認為 AMD 的價值被低估了，也就是說，從目前 1.26 美元的交易價格來看，要達到他們的平均目標價，還有 54% 的上升空間。

Don't get me wrong.

別誤會我的意思。

I'm not trying to discredit Broadcom.

我並不想詆譭 Broadcom。

I think it's an amazing company.

我認為這是一家了不起的公司。

However, I think the ticket to get on the rocket ship to the moon for Broadcom has already left.

不過，我認為博通登上登月火箭船的船票已經出發了。

However, for AMD, I think it's still docked in place and it's ready to shoot off.

不過，對於 AMD 來說，我認為它仍然停靠在原位，隨時準備發射。

And I'll make my final argument by saying this at AMD's next earnings report, that's going to be an early 2025 when Lisa Sue and AMD throws down some good news, why can't AMD shoot up to the sky like Broadcom just did the fundamentals of the company hasn't changed at all and the stock price is just going lower and lower because the market is shifting their money away from AMD and into Nvidia, Marvel, and Broadcom.