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  • It's been a bad two years for the Chinese economy, but as we head into 2025, is there some room for some optimism?

  • Well, the short answer is not really.

  • All the data shows that growth in China is still low, youth unemployment is still high and citizens, they just aren't spending like they were before the pandemic.

  • And ultimately, it's the property problem which is at the heart of all of this.

  • And that still hasn't been fixed.

  • The Chinese policymakers response to the troubled housing market has on the whole been lacklustre.

  • There's a sense that they don't want to row back on the progress they've achieved in cooling the market and bringing prices down and reducing the economy's reliance on real estate.

  • But the problem is other sectors have not yet emerged that can fill the gap left by housing in the Chinese economy.

  • So don't expect a big bazooka style stimulus package to try and improve the Chinese economy.

  • It's not really Xi Jinping's style.

  • To the Chinese president, that's the sort of thing that Western boom and bust capitalist economies would do.

  • Having said that, he knows that he does have to do something in the short term.

  • And recently, the government has been making some tweaks to its policies to try and get consumers to spend a bit more in the coming year.

  • President Xi received some very candid and blunt feedback on the state of the economy during a trip to Western China in September, where he met with some senior retired party leaders who were willing to speak to him in very blunt terms.

  • And that seems to have been a catalyst for this pivot toward stimulus.

  • But President Xi's orientation overall has been to stay the course and keep the faith that the focus on high quality growth would eventually yield dividends after a difficult transition period.

  • Many of China's problems are structural and they will not be fixed overnight.

  • Xi Jinping basically wants to evolve, to totally reshape what makes China prosperous.

  • But moving away from mass manufacturing and property to high tech industries like AI, renewables, biotech, that's going to take years, if not decades, to achieve.

  • So really a long term project.

  • But in the meantime, let's not forget there's also the small matter of a second Donald Trump presidency to contend with as well.

It's been a bad two years for the Chinese economy, but as we head into 2025, is there some room for some optimism?

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