Now, he's focusing on climate change, agreeing with the overwhelming majority of scientists who warn of a looming climate disaster.

現在，他把重點放在了氣候變化上，同意絕大多數科學家的觀點，警告氣候災難迫在眉睫。

The good news is Gates believes it's possible to prevent a catastrophic rise in temperatures.

好消息是，蓋茨認為有可能防止災難性的氣溫上升。

The bad news?

壞消息是什麼？

He says in the next 30 years, we need scientific breakthroughs, technological innovations, and global cooperation on a scale the world has never seen.

他說，未來 30 年，我們需要科學突破、技術創新和全球合作，其規模將是世界上前所未有的。

The story will continue in a moment.

故事稍後將繼續。

You believe this is the toughest challenge humanity has ever faced?

你認為這是人類有史以來面臨的最嚴峻挑戰？

Absolutely.

當然。

The amount of change, new ideas, it's way greater than the pandemic.

變化之大、新想法之多，遠遠超過大流行病。

And it needs a level of cooperation that would be unprecedented.

這需要前所未有的合作。

That doesn't sound feasible.

這聽起來不可行。

No, it's not easy.

不，這並不容易。

It sounds impossible.

這聽起來不可能。

But hey, we have 30 years.

但是，嘿，我們還有 30 年。

We have more educated people than ever.

我們受過教育的人比以往任何時候都多。

We have a generation that's speaking out on this topic.

我們這一代人正在就這一話題暢所欲言。

And, you know, I got to participate in the miracle of the personal computer and the Internet.

而且，你知道，我參與了個人電腦和互聯網的奇蹟。

And so, yes, I have a bias to believe innovation can do these things.

是以，是的，我偏向於相信創新可以做到這些事情。

He's talking about innovations in every aspect of modern life, manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, because nearly everything we now do releases earth-warming greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

他說的是現代生活、製造業、農業、交通等各方面的創新，因為我們現在所做的一切幾乎都會向大氣層釋放使地球變暖的溫室氣體，主要是二氧化碳。

He took us to his favorite burger joint in Seattle to explain.

他帶我們去西雅圖他最喜歡的漢堡店做了解釋。

You're talking about changing everything in the economy, I mean, every aspect of it.

你說的是改變經濟中的一切，我是說，經濟的方方面面。

Yeah, the physical economy.

是的，實體經濟。

So, of what we can see right now, of us sitting around here, what specifically would be impacted?

那麼，就我們現在所能看到的、坐在這裡的我們而言，具體會受到哪些影響？

Well, this cement would be made in a different way.

那麼，這種水泥的製作方法就不同了。

The steel in the building would be different.

建築中的鋼材將有所不同。

You know, the meat in the burger is a big deal.

要知道，漢堡裡的肉可是個大問題。

These, you know, all this plastic and paper, potatoes.

這些，你知道，所有這些塑膠、紙張、洋芋。

With potatoes, you're talking about fertilizer, the irrigation system that's used.

對於馬鈴薯，你需要考慮肥料和灌溉系統。

All the tractors, the transport.

所有的拖拉機和運輸工具

Or trucks that bring them to this restaurant.

或者是把他們帶到這家餐廳的卡車。

All that has to change.

這一切都必須改變。

Hey, when you're going to zero, you don't get to skip anything.

嘿，當你要歸零時，你不能跳過任何東西。

Gates says going to zero means eliminating all greenhouse gas emissions or else.

蓋茨說，"零排放 "意味著消除所有溫室氣體排放，否則就會被淘汰。

If they wait 100 years to do this.

如果他們等 100 年才這樣做。

It's way too late.

太遲了

Then the natural ecosystems will have failed.

到那時，自然生態系統就會失靈。

The instability, you know, the migration.

不穩定，你知道的，移民。

Those things will get really, really bad well before the end of the century.

在本世紀末之前，這些事情會變得非常非常糟糕。

When you're talking about migration, you're talking about hundreds of thousands of people trying to move from North Africa to Europe every year.

說到移民，每年都有數十萬人試圖從北非遷往歐洲。

Exactly.

沒錯。

The Syrian war was a 20th of what climate migration will look like.

敘利亞戰爭是氣候移民的第 20 個縮影。

So the deaths per year are way 10 times greater than what we've experienced in the pandemic.

是以，每年的死亡人數要比我們在大流行病中經歷的死亡人數高出 10 倍。

In a new book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, Gates outlines all the solutions he believes we need.

在新書《如何避免氣候災難》中，蓋茨概述了他認為我們需要的所有解決方案。

He says the U.S. has to lead the world getting to zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

他說，美國必須引領世界在 2050 年前實現溫室氣體零排放。

He supports President Biden's decision to rejoin the Paris climate agreement, but is asking the administration to massively increase the budget for climate and clean energy research to $35 billion a year.

他支持拜登總統重新加入巴黎氣候協定的決定，但要求政府將氣候和清潔能源研究的預算大幅增加到每年 350 億美元。

You've said that governments need to do the hard stuff, but not just go after the low hanging fruit.

您說過，政府需要做艱苦的工作，但不能只追求低垂的果實。

What's the low hanging fruit?

低垂的果實是什麼？

Passenger cars, part of the electric generation with renewables.

乘用車，可再生能源發電的一部分。

The things everybody knows about, that's getting almost all the money, not the hard parts, which is the industrial piece, including the steel and cement.

大家都知道的是，幾乎所有的錢都花在了這些方面，而不是最難的部分，也就是工業這一塊，包括鋼鐵和水泥。

Those pieces we've hardly started to work on.

這些作品我們幾乎還沒開始做。

No one thinks much about cement and steel, but making it accounts for 16 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions, and the demand is only growing.

大家都不太關心水泥和鋼材，但水泥和鋼材的生產卻佔二氧化碳排放總量的 16%，而且需求還在不斷增長。

The world will add an estimated 2.5 trillion square feet of buildings by 2060.

到 2060 年，全球將新增約 2.5 萬億平方英尺的建築面積。

That's the equivalent of putting up another New York City every month for the next 40 years.

這相當於在未來 40 年裡，每個月都要再建一座紐約城。

So one innovative company Gates has been pouring money into is CarbonCure.

是以，蓋茨一直在投入資金的一家創新公司就是 CarbonCure。

They inject captured carbon dioxide into concrete.

他們將捕獲的二氧化碳注入混凝土中。

What they do is they stick CO2 in here, in the cement, and they mix them up.

他們要做的就是把二氧化碳放進這裡的水泥裡，然後把它們混合起來。

And so you're able to actually get rid of some CO2 by sticking it in the cement.

是以，通過把它粘在水泥裡，就能真正排出一些二氧化碳。

Right now they get rid of about 5 percent, but they have a next generation they can get to 30 percent.

現在，它們能去除大約 5%，但它們的下一代產品能達到 30%。

The carbon has been just injected into this, so it's captured it, so it's not going to be released into the atmosphere.

碳剛剛被注入其中，是以它被捕獲，不會被釋放到大氣中。

That's right.

這就對了。

Gates has already invested $2 billion of his own money on new green technologies and plans to spend several billion more.

蓋茨已將自己的 20 億美元投資於新的綠色技術，並計劃再投入數十億美元。

In 2016, he also recruited Jeff Bezos, Mike Bloomberg and nearly two dozen other wealthy investors to back a billion-dollar fund called Breakthrough Energy Ventures, making long-term, often risky, investments in promising technologies.

2016 年，他還招募了傑夫-貝索斯、邁克-布隆伯格和其他近二十多位富豪投資者，支持一個名為 "突破能源風險投資 "的十億美元基金，對有前途的技術進行長期投資，而且往往風險很大。

It kind of blows my mind, you know, what's the cost of making that stuff?

這讓我大吃一驚，你知道，製造這些東西的成本是多少嗎？

Gates regularly consults with the fund's team of top scientists and entrepreneurs who've so far invested in 50 companies with cutting-edge ideas to reduce carbon emissions.

蓋茨定期與該基金的頂級科學家和企業家團隊進行磋商，迄今為止，他們已經投資了 50 家擁有減少碳排放尖端理念的公司。

What's like the most far-flung idea you've backed?

你支持過的最遙遠的想法是什麼？

There's one that's so crazy it's even hard to describe.

有一種瘋狂得甚至難以形容。

Wait a minute.

等一下

It's so crazy it's hard to describe.

這太瘋狂了，難以形容。

How do you pitch that to investors?

如何向投資者推介？

They find geological formations and they just pump water down into them.

他們找到地質構造，然後將水泵入其中。

The energy they've used to pump it in, then they can draw that energy back out.

他們把能量抽進去，然後再把能量抽出來。

So it's a water pressure storage thing, which, you know, when I first saw it, I thought, that can't work.

所以這是一個水壓儲存器，你知道，當我第一次看到它時，我想，這不可能工作。

But...

但是

But you gave money to it?

但你給了它錢？

Yeah, lots of money.

是的，很多錢。

Because cows account for around 4 percent of all greenhouse gases, Gates has invested in two companies making plant-based meat substitutes, Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat.

由於奶牛排放的溫室氣體約佔溫室氣體總量的 4%，蓋茨投資了兩家生產植物肉類替代品的公司，即 Impossible Foods 和 Beyond Meat。

But farming the vegetables used to make many meat alternatives emits gases as well.

但是，種植用於製作許多肉類替代品的蔬菜也會排放氣體。

So Gates is also backing a company that's created an entirely new food source.

是以，蓋茨也在支持一家創造了全新食物來源的公司。

This company Nature Find is using fungi and then they turn them into sausage and yogurt.

這家名為 Nature Find 的公司利用真菌製作香腸和酸奶。

Pretty amazing.

太神奇了

When you say fungi, do you mean like a mushroom or a microbe?

你說的真菌是指蘑菇還是微生物？

It's a microbe.

這是一種微生物。

The microbe was discovered in the ground in a geyser in Yellowstone National Park.

這種微生物是在黃石國家公園一個間歇泉的地下發現的。

Without soil or fertilizer, it can be grown to produce this nutritional protein that can then be turned into a variety of foods with a small carbon footprint.

不需要土壤或肥料，就能種植出這種營養蛋白質，然後將其製成各種食品，而且碳足跡很小。

This is the yogurt.

這就是酸奶。

Oh, this is good.

哦，這很好。

Wow.

哇

I've had like cashew yogurt or oat yogurt.

我喝過腰果酸奶或燕麥酸奶。

It's sort of along those lines.

差不多就是這個意思。

Yeah, with the burgers, they're, you know, like beyond impossible.

是啊，漢堡就更不可能了

They're getting close to the real thing, but you can still tell.

它們越來越接近真品，但你還是能看出來。

These I'm not sure I could have...

這些我不確定我能...

I'm more of a burger expert than I am a yogurt expert.

比起酸奶專家，我更像是漢堡專家。

Gates never planned to focus on climate change.

蓋茨從未計劃關注氣候變化。

But while working in Africa with the foundation he started with his wife Melinda in 2000, he came to see just how vulnerable those in developing countries are to the effects of rising temperatures.

但是，當他與妻子梅琳達於 2000 年創辦的基金會在非洲工作時，他發現開發中國家的人們是多麼容易受到氣溫上升的影響。

So 15 years ago, Gates started educating himself on climate change, bringing scientists and engineers to his office in Seattle for what he calls learning sessions.

是以，15 年前，蓋茨開始學習氣候變化方面的知識，他把科學家和工程師請到自己位於西雅圖的辦公室，參加他稱之為 "學習會議 "的活動。

He also reads voraciously books and binders full of scientific research.

他還貪婪地閱讀各種書籍和裝滿科學研究資料的活頁夾。

Yeah, so this is the most recent one, which is about clean hydrogen.

是的，這是最近的一次，是關於清潔氫氣的。

So you're reading thousands of pages every few days on topics.

是以，你每隔幾天就會閱讀數千頁的相關主題。

Yeah, my reading is key and then asking questions when it doesn't make sense.

是的，我的閱讀是關鍵，然後在不明白的時候提出問題。

Gates isn't just looking to cut future carbon emissions.

蓋茨不僅希望減少未來的碳排放量。

He's also investing in direct air capture, an experimental process to remove existing CO2 from the atmosphere.

他還投資於直接空氣捕獲技術，這是一種從大氣中去除現有二氧化碳的實驗性工藝。

Some companies are now using these giant fans to capture CO2 directly out of the air.

現在，一些公司正在使用這些巨型風機直接從空氣中捕捉二氧化碳。

Gates has become one of the world's largest funders of this kind of technology.

蓋茨已成為此類技術的全球最大資助者之一。

But of all his green investments, Gates has spent the most time and money pursuing a breakthrough in nuclear energy, arguing it's key to a zero carbon future.

但在他所有的綠色投資中，蓋茨花了最多的時間和金錢來尋求核能方面的突破，認為這是實現零碳未來的關鍵。

He says he's a big believer in wind and solar and thinks it can one day provide up to 80 percent of the country's electricity.

他說，他非常相信風能和太陽能，並認為有朝一日風能和太陽能可以提供全國 80% 的電力。

But Gates insists unless we discover an effective way to store and ship wind and solar energy, nuclear power will likely have to do the rest.

但蓋茨堅持認為，除非我們找到一種有效的方法來儲存和運輸風能和太陽能，否則剩下的工作可能只能由核能來完成。

Energy from nuclear plants can be stored so it's available when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing.

核電站的能源可以儲存起來，以便在沒有陽光和風的時候也能使用。

Were you always a big proponent of nuclear?

你一直是核能的忠實擁護者嗎？

In 2008, he founded TerraPower, a company that has redesigned a nuclear reactor.

2008 年，他創辦了 TerraPower 公司，重新設計了一座核反應堆。

This is your prototype?

這就是你的原型？

Exactly.

沒錯。

TerraPower's naturing reactor.

TerraPower 的自然反應器。

This is a rendering.

這是效果圖。

We haven't built it yet.

我們還沒有建造它。

But here's the nuclear island right here.

但核島就在這裡。

This is the reactor? Gates says TerraPower's reactor is less expensive to build, produces less waste, and is fully automated, reducing the potential for human error.

這就是反應堆？ 蓋茨說，TerraPower 公司的反應堆建造成本更低，產生的廢料更少，而且完全自動化，減少了人為失誤的可能性。

Gates and Director of Engineering Lindsay Bowles showed us what they say is another key to its safety.

蓋茨和工程總監林賽-鮑爾斯向我們展示了他們所說的另一個安全關鍵。

What is it that we're looking at here?

我們要看的是什麼？

So these individual fuel pins are actually where the uranium fuel is, and that's what generates all the heat in our natrium reactor.

是以，這些單獨的燃料栓實際上就是鈾燃料所在的位置，而這正是我們的鈉反應堆產生所有熱量的原因。

This is what everybody is worried about?

這就是大家所擔心的？

Yes, exactly.

是的，沒錯。

In a normal reactor, it's water that's flowing past and heating up.

在普通反應堆中，是水流過並加熱。

And it'll boil and generate a lot of high pressure.

它會沸騰併產生大量高壓。

That high heat and pressure can cause an explosion, like in Chernobyl in 1986, when radioactive material was spread for thousands of miles.

高熱和高壓會導致爆炸，就像 1986 年的切爾諾貝利事故，當時放射性物質擴散了數千英里。

But Gates says the TerraPower reactor won't use water to cool down the fuel rods.

但蓋茨說，TerraPower 反應堆不會使用水來冷卻燃料棒。

They plan to use liquid sodium.

他們計劃使用液態鈉。

The liquid sodium can absorb a lot more heat, and so we don't have any high pressure inside the reactor.

液態鈉可以吸收更多的熱量，是以反應堆內沒有任何高壓。

In October, the Department of Energy awarded TerraPower $80 million to build one of the first advanced nuclear reactors in the U.S.

10 月，美國能源部授予 TerraPower 公司 8000 萬美元，用於建造美國首批先進核反應堆之一。

Nuclear power can be done in a way that none of those failures of the past would recur, because just the physics of how it's built.

核電可以做到過去的那些失敗都不會再發生，因為核電的建造物理原理就是如此。

I admit, convincing people of that will be almost as hard as actually building it.

我承認，說服人們相信這一點幾乎和真正建造它一樣困難。

But since it may be necessary to avoid climate change, we shouldn't give up.

但既然要避免氣候變化，我們就不應該放棄。

You've been criticized for being a technocrat, saying technology is the only solution for tackling climate change.

有人責備您是技術官僚，說技術是解決氣候變化問題的唯一辦法。

There are other people who say, look, the solutions are already there.

還有人說，聽著，解決方案已經存在了。

It's just government policy is what really needs to be focused on.

真正需要關注的是政府政策。

I wish that was true.

我希望這是真的。

I wish all this funding of these companies wasn't necessary at all.

我希望這些公司根本不需要這些資金。

Without innovation, we will not solve climate change.

沒有創新，我們就無法解決氣候變化問題。

We won't even come close.

我們甚至無法接近。

Gates credits young activists for keeping climate change in the headlines, but he knows some consider him an imperfect ally.

蓋茨認為，年輕的活動家讓氣候變化成為頭條新聞，但他知道有些人認為他是一個不完美的盟友。

Are you the right messenger on this?

你是正確的信使嗎？

Because you fly private planes a lot and you're creating a lot of greenhouse gases yourself.

因為你經常乘坐私人飛機，你自己也在製造大量的溫室氣體。

Yeah, I probably have one of the highest greenhouse gas footprints of anyone on the planet.

是的，我可能是地球上溫室氣體排放量最高的人之一。

You know, my personal flying alone is gigantic.

要知道，我一個人的飛行量就非常大。

Now I'm spending quite a bit to buy aviation fuel that was made with plants.

現在，我花了不少錢購買用植物製造的航空燃料。

You know, I switched to an electric car.

你知道，我換了一輛電動汽車。

I've used solar panels.

我用過太陽能電池板。

I'm paying a company that actually at a very high price can pull a bit of carbon out of the air and stick it underground.

我付錢給一家公司，這家公司實際上可以用很高的價格從空氣中提取一點碳，並將其埋入地下。

And so I'm offsetting my personal emissions.

是以，我正在抵消我的個人排放量。

Those are called carbon offset.

這些被稱為碳補償。

Right.

對

So, you know, it's costing like four hundred dollars a ton.

所以，你知道，它的成本大概是每噸 400 美元。

It's like seven million dollars.

好像是七百萬美元

So you're paying seven million dollars a year to offset your carbon footprint.

是以，你每年要支付 700 萬美元來抵消你的碳足跡。

Yep.

是的。

He's encouraging others who can afford it to buy carbon offsets and green products so that what he calls the green premium, the added production costs for reducing carbon emissions will go down and quality of products up, driving the innovations that may get us to zero.

他鼓勵其他有能力的人購買碳抵消和綠色產品，這樣，他所說的綠色溢價，即減少碳排放所增加的生產成本就會降低，產品質量就會提高，從而推動創新，使我們實現零碳排放。

It just seems overwhelming if every aspect of our daily life has to change.

如果我們日常生活的方方面面都要改變，這似乎讓人難以承受。

It can seem overwhelming.

這似乎令人不知所措。

But you are optimistic.

但你很樂觀。

Yeah.

是啊

There are days when it looks very hard.

有些日子看起來非常艱難。

If people think it's easy, they're wrong.

如果人們認為這很容易，那他們就錯了。

If people think it's impossible, they're wrong.

如果人們認為這是不可能的，那他們就錯了。

It's possible.

這是可能的。

It's possible.

這是可能的。

But it'll be the most amazing thing mankind has ever done.

但這將是人類所做過的最了不起的事情。

That's what it has to be.

必須如此。

Yeah.

是啊

It's an all out effort, you know, like a world war.

這是一種全力以赴的努力，你知道，就像一場世界大戰。

But it's us against greenhouse gases.

但這是我們在對抗溫室氣體。

Bill Gates' advice on how to combat mistrust in science at 60minutesovertime.com.

比爾-蓋茨在 60minutesovertime.com 上就如何消除對科學的不信任提出的建議。

Sponsored by Pfizer.

由輝瑞公司贊助。