Name: 決策 | 決策的未來 | 雪梨諾貝爾獎對話 (Decision making | The Future of Decision Making | Nobel Prize Dialogue Sydney)
Uploaded: 2025-01-02T04:46:04.000Z
Duration: 14 min 22 s

Auntie Maxime, I wanted to thank you for your welcome, and I pay my respects to you and to elders past and present.

馬克西姆阿姨，感謝您的歡迎，我向您以及過去和現在的長輩們致以敬意。

基礎被動語態

So I'm going to start with 1967, the year I was born in the state of Montana, USA.

所以我要從 1967 年說起，那一年我出生在美國蒙大拿州。

情態副詞

This is four and a half years after the Cuban Missile Crisis brought us as close to nuclear war as we probably ever have known.

這是古巴飛彈危機四年半之後，我們可能有史以來最接近核戰爭的時刻。

The Cold War was full throttle, which I never forgot because Minuteman missile silos were in my backyard and all around.

冷戰正酣，我從未忘記，因為民兵飛彈發射井就在我家後院和周圍。

The next year, 1968, well this was a year of great change.

第二年，1968 年，這一年發生了巨大的變化。

Around the world, mass protests broke out, largely by young people in the U.S. where I lived, but here in Australia, Western Europe, as well as Northern Ireland, Mexico, Brazil, and even within the Soviet bloc, Prague, but also Warsaw and Yugoslavia.

在世界各地，爆發了大規模抗議活動，主要是我所居住的美國的年輕人，但在澳洲、西歐、北愛爾蘭、墨西哥、巴西，甚至在蘇聯集團內部，布拉格、華沙和南斯拉夫也發生了抗議活動。

The protests were a symptom, a symptom that young people were not happy with the status quo.

抗議活動是一種徵兆，一種年輕人對現狀不滿的徵兆。

These protests caused death, destruction, and misery, but they also provided the impetus for collective decision making that set the stage for the world to go through a period of growth and our collective prosperity unparalleled in human history.

這些抗議活動造成了死亡、破壞和痛苦，但也為集體決策提供了動力，為世界經歷人類歷史上前所未有的增長和集體繁榮奠定了基礎。

This included, in 1968, the drafting of the Non-Proliferation Nuclear Weapons Treaty, which stands to this day.

其中包括在 1968 年起草了至今仍然有效的《不擴散核武器條約》。

It included the expansion of the civil rights of minority groups and women, not just in the U.S., but also in many countries around the world, including a start here in Australia, and it was the beginning of the environmental movement, all within that short period of about 12 months.

它包括擴大少數群體和婦女的公民權利，不僅在美國如此，在世界許多國家也是如此，包括在澳洲開始，它也是環保運動的開端，所有這一切都發生在這短短的約 12 個月內。

Now many of the protests were directed against oppression and war, and here the protests were arguably, at least in the short term, less successful.

現在，許多抗議活動都是針對壓迫和戰爭的，可以說，至少在短期內，這裡的抗議活動不太成功。

But they did set the stage for, they did set the stage for what was a very good rise of democracy in the years that came, as shown in this graph.

但是，它們確實為民主在隨後幾年的良好崛起奠定了基礎，如圖所示。

The Vietnam War was delegitimized by these protests within the U.S. and its allies, and while the war took a long time to scale down as killing continued to 1975, it was the last giant war that we have had, and we've had many terrible conflicts since, but the world has largely avoided the massive conflicts that plagued humanity from 1915 to 1975.

美國及其盟國內部的這些抗議活動使越南戰爭失去了合法性，雖然這場戰爭在持續到 1975 年的殺戮過程中花了很長時間才逐漸平息，但它是我們經歷的最後一場大規模戰爭，此後我們經歷了許多可怕的衝突，但世界在很大程度上避免了從 1915 年到 1975 年困擾人類的大規模衝突。

Now when I was born in 1967, there were 3.5 billion people on the earth, and in 1968, the book The Population Bomb laid out a dire future for humanity as we were seemingly going to overwhelm the resources of earth with our sheer numbers, with mass starvation on the horizon.

1968 年，《人口爆炸》一書為人類描繪了一個可怕的未來，因為我們的數量似乎將使地球資源不堪重負，大規模饑荒即將來臨。

My parents had a copy of this book, and I remember reading it when I was 13, and I have to admit I was a bit freaked out by it.

我父母有一本這本書，我記得我 13 歲的時候讀過這本書，我不得不承認我當時有點被它嚇壞了。

But the Green Revolution, powered by decades of agricultural research, well it swept across the planet, and thankfully has enabled humanity thus far to postpone the sustainability crisis for most of the earth's 8.2 billion inhabitants.

但是，數十年農業研究推動的綠色革命席捲了整個地球，並使人類得以延後地球上 82 億居民中大多數人的可持續發展危機。

Over that time, despite more than doubling of the population in my 57 years on earth, poverty has been substantially reduced worldwide.

在這段時間裡，儘管我在地球上的 57 年裡人口增長了一倍多，但全世界的貧困現象已大幅減少。

Now, let's move the clock forward to 2024.

現在，讓我們把時間撥到 2024 年。

I fear we have begun to lose our way once again in our global decision-making.

我擔心我們在全球決策中再次迷失方向。

The rise of democracy has ended, and it's beginning to fall away.

民主的崛起已經結束，民主開始衰落。

If we go through and look at armed conflicts, deaths in armed conflicts have in the last 10 years taken a terrible upturn, with the current wars in the Middle East and Ukraine making news on a daily basis, and the civil wars of South Sudan and Myanmar still happening, although more invisible, with tens of thousands of civilians cruelly dying, with no end in sight and seemingly no will to stop.

如果我們回顧一下武裝衝突，武裝衝突中的死亡人數在過去 10 年裡急劇上升，目前中東和烏克蘭的戰爭每天都是新聞，南蘇丹和緬甸的內戰仍在發生，儘管更加隱蔽，數以萬計的平民殘酷地死去，看不到盡頭，似乎也沒有停止的意願。

Well, the world can be proud that it set in reverse nuclear proliferation starting in 1968.

從 1968 年開始，核擴散的趨勢開始逆轉，這一點值得全世界驕傲。

But we have had recent nuclear states emerge, North Korea, but also Pakistan and India, all expanding their arsenals, and now an old state, China, looking to increase its stockpiles to more closely match that of the United States.

但是，最近出現了一些核國家，北韓、巴基斯坦和印度都在擴充其核武庫，現在還有一個老牌國家--中國，也在尋求增加其核武庫，以便更接近美國的水準。

Non-proliferation is seemingly off the agenda of the world's governments, but it is not off the agenda of the world's people, and I was very gratified to see the Nobel Peace Prize given this year to Nihon Hidakyo, because, indeed, nuclear weapons must never be used again.

防擴散似乎已被世界各國政府排除在議事日程之外，但它並沒有被世界人民排除在議事日程之外，我非常高興地看到今年的諾貝爾和平獎頒給了《日本經濟新聞》，因為核武器確實永遠不能再被使用。

Global nutritional sustainability is once again under threat.

全球營養的可持續性再次受到威脅。

Our agricultural productivity is not increasing fast enough to meet the needs of the additional 1.5 billion people set to join the planet by 2050.

我們的農業生產力增長不夠快，無法滿足到 2050 年地球上將新增的 15 億人口的需求。

And this is even more true when we look at the headwinds caused by climate change, as Humanity, despite an almost 50-year warning, has not managed to limit the increase in greenhouse gases.

而當我們看到氣候變化所帶來的不利因素時，情況就更加如此了，因為儘管人類已經發出了近 50 年的警告，但仍未能限制溫室氣體的增加。

Indeed, in the last decade, the CO2 content in the atmosphere has increased at the highest rate in measurement history.

事實上，在過去十年中，大氣中的二氧化碳含量以測量歷史上最高的速度增長。

Our global mean temperature surpassed 1.5 C degrees total warming just this year, many, many years earlier than anticipated, and while I hope that this is just a blip, I fear it might not be.

就在今年，我們的全球平均氣溫總升溫超過了 1.5 攝氏度，這比預期的時間早了很多很多年，雖然我希望這只是一個小插曲，但我擔心它可能不是。

Humanity, through arguably one of our most prosperous times in our history, has started once again accumulating risks that we should all find scary.

人類經歷了歷史上可以說是最繁榮的時期之一，卻再次開始積累我們都應該感到恐懼的風險。

But neither is it, as we say here, a should-be-right moment.

但正如我們在這裡所說的，這也不是一個應該正確的時刻。

We must act definitively, like in the late 60s, 70s, and 80s, and collectively.

我們必須採取明確的行動，就像上世紀 60 年代末、70 年代和 80 年代那樣，採取集體行動。

Because we never want to see one of these again.

因為我們再也不想看到這種東西了。

We need to make it a priority amongst the nations of the world to decrease arsenals, put in place measures that help make sure that nuclear weapons are not used by intention or by accident, and that stop new nation-states from wanting to gain nuclear weapons, and help convince existing nations to decrease or eliminate their existing stockpiles.

我們需要將減少核武庫作為世界各國的當務之急，制定措施幫助確保核武器不會被有意或無意地使用，阻止新的民族國家想要獲得核武器，並幫助說服現有國家減少或消除其現有庫存。

We made progress in the height of the Cold War on this, and we can make progress again if it is a priority.

在冷戰高峰期，我們在這方面取得了進展，如果將其作為優先事項，我們可以再次取得進展。

In my opinion, nuclear war ultimately remains at the top of humanity's existential risk list.

在我看來，核戰爭最終仍然是人類生存風險清單上的頭等大事。

The food security of the world is once again on the horizon.

世界的糧食安全問題再次迫在眉睫。

We need a Green Revolution 2.0, or in 2050, the alarm sounded in the population bomb may well come back to bite us.

我們需要一場 "綠色革命 2.0"，否則到 2050 年，"人口炸彈 "敲響的警鐘很可能會反噬我們。

Our agricultural productivity is not keeping pace with what we need to feed the extra 80 million people inhabiting the planet each year, let alone dealing with the headwinds of climate change.

我們的農業生產力跟不上每年為地球上新增的 8000 萬人口提供食物的需要，更不用說應對氣候變化帶來的不利影響了。

Now, agricultural research may not be the sexiest topic, but it is important.

現在，農業研究可能不是最性感的話題，但它很重要。

And the research is not just STEM, because we need to ensure that the food that is grown is actually able to be used by those in need.

研究不僅僅是科學、技術和工程方面的，因為我們需要確保種植的糧食能夠真正為需要的人所用。

This is an eminently doable project, but it's one that is 25 years long and will need to involve players across the entire world.

這是一個非常可行的項目，但它長達 25 年，需要全世界的參與者參與其中。

It will not just emerge, it requires effective global action.

它不會憑空出現，而是需要有效的全球行動。

氣候變化是一個棘手的大問題。

It could well precipitate conflicts including nuclear war or mass starvation.

這很可能引發衝突，包括核戰爭或大規模饑荒。

Lowering our emissions is no longer sufficient.

降低我們的排放量已不再足夠。

Yes, we still need to do it as fast as we can, but we need to not just quit emitting CO2.

是的，我們仍然需要儘可能快地做到這一點，但我們不能只是停止排放二氧化碳。

We actually are going to have to start removing it from the atmosphere.

實際上，我們必須開始從大氣中清除它。

And the climate has already changed and will change more.

氣候已經發生了變化，而且還將發生更大的變化。

So we must work on adaptation, figuring out how to cope with a world whose climate is just different than what we're used to from the past.

是以，我們必須努力適應，想辦法應對這個氣候與我們過去習慣的氣候不同的世界。

Now, if there is one problem that should unify everyone on the planet, it is living sustainably on Earth.

現在，如果有一個問題能讓地球上的每個人團結起來，那就是在地球上可持續地生活。

But how do we get the institutions of the world to work together to deal with issues that our collective efforts can almost certainly largely mitigate?

但是，我們怎樣才能讓世界各機構共同努力，解決我們的集體努力幾乎肯定可以在很大程度上緩解的問題呢？

Well, the Internet and the World Wide Web has in theory made collective decision making so much easier.

從理論上講，互聯網和網際網路使集體決策變得更加容易。

Every person has a voice, has access to almost the entirety of humanity's knowledge, and has the ability to communicate with literally any other person on the planet.

每個人都有自己的聲音，幾乎可以接觸到人類的全部知識，並且能夠與地球上的任何其他人進行交流。

We can share, know, and act together in a way that simply has not been before possible.

我們可以以一種前所未有的方式分享、瞭解和共同行動。

But in practice, the Internet has allowed disinformation to take hold, for expertise to be disintermediated, and for everyone to pick and choose their own version of truth.

但在實踐中，互聯網讓虛假資訊大行其道，讓專業知識脫媒，讓每個人都能挑選自己版本的真相。

And no, this is not telling you to go out and get a vaccine.

This has effectively allowed everyone to go and pick their own version of truth based on their own priors, leading to a polarized world that is fragmented around different worldviews, rather than bringing it together as I had hoped.

這實際上讓每個人都可以根據自己的先驗去選擇自己版本的真理，導致世界兩極分化，圍繞著不同的世界觀四分五裂，而不是像我所希望的那樣將世界團結在一起。

The Internet has made each of us an information superpower, but we do not yet collectively have the skills and critical thinking to effectively use this superpower.

互聯網讓我們每個人都成為資訊超級大國，但我們還沒有集體掌握有效利用這種超級大國的技能和批判性思維。

The Internet has turned from opportunity to a curse.

I believe a solution is working to enable every person to be able to effectively interact with humanity's collective wisdom.

我相信，解決之道就是讓每個人都能與人類的集體智慧進行有效互動。

This means educating young, and it is the young in practice who will educate the old, to be able to critically interact with information, and therefore be more immune to manipulation.

這意味著要教育年輕人，而正是年輕人在實踐中將教育老年人，使他們能夠批判性地與資訊互動，從而更加不受操縱。

With the rise of generative AI, able to personalize disinformation en masse, regulation is certainly going to be required.

隨著能夠大規模個性化虛假資訊的生成式人工智能的崛起，監管肯定是必要的。

And in the same way that free speech does not allow you to yell fire in a theater, it deserves no protection.

就像言論自由不允許你在劇院裡大喊 "著火了 "一樣，言論自由也不應該受到保護。

If we can control disinformation enabled by the Internet and AI, then these tools open the possibility of educating and assisting billions of people to make sensible decisions together.

如果我們能夠通過互聯網和人工智能控制虛假資訊，那麼這些工具就為教育和幫助數十億人共同做出明智決定提供了可能。

But I have been impressed by the way that citizen juries are able to make robust and sensible decisions when average people are simply able to interact with accurate information.

但是，令我印象深刻的是，當普通人只需與準確的資訊互動時，公民陪審團就能做出有力而明智的決定。

Imagine such a process integrated into local, national, and international governance at a scale only a computer could possibly manage.

想象一下，將這樣一個過程整合到地方、國家和國際治理中，其規模只有計算機才有可能管理。

And the curse of the Internet and AI can be reversed.

而互聯網和人工智能的詛咒是可以逆轉的。

A positive lesson of 1968 is that the will of the people can be very strong and influential.

1968 年的一個積極教訓是，人民的意志可以非常強大並具有影響力。

But I live in hope that we can make our voices heard today in a way more peaceful than that time.

但我希望，我們今天能以比當時更和平的方式發出自己的聲音。

And not just for a year or two, but for every generation that follows.

而且不僅僅是一兩年，而是以後的每一代人。

We all have to all learn to live on it, together, sustainably.

我們都必須學會共同、可持續地生活在這片土地上。