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  • They got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life.

  • They would get very rich.

  • I met Bill Gates on July 5th, 1991.

  • We were out in Seattle and Bill said, you've got to have a computer.

  • And I said, why?

  • And he said, well, he said you can do your income tax on it.

  • I said, I don't have any income.

  • Berger doesn't pay any of that.

  • He said, well, you can keep track of your portfolio.

  • I said, I only have one stock.

  • I said, I know.

  • He says, it's going to change everything.

  • And I said, well, will it change whether people chew gum?

  • And he said, well, probably not.

  • And I said, well, will it change what kind of gum they chew?

  • And I said, well, then I'll stick to chewing gum and you stick to computers.

  • I don't have to understand all kinds of business.

  • There's all kinds of business I don't understand.

  • But there's thousands of opportunities there.

  • I did understand the Bank of America, you know, and and I'll be able, I'm able to do that.

  • I'm able to understand some given percentage.

  • But Ted Williams wrote a book called The Science of Hitting.

  • And in The Science of Hitting, he's got a diagram, shows him at the plate, and he's got the strike zone divided into 77 squares, each the size of a baseball.

  • And he says, if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone, which he shows there, and he has what his batting average would be, which is 400.

  • If he had to swing at low outside pitches, but still in the strike zone, his average would be 230.

  • He said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch.

  • Now, he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0-2 or 1-2 or so on, even if that ball was down where he was only gonna bat 230, he had to swing at it.

  • In investing, there's no called strikes.

  • People can throw Microsoft at me and, you know, you name it, any stock, General Motors.

  • And I don't have to swing.

  • Nobody's gonna call me out on called strikes.

  • I only get a strike called if I swing at a pitch and miss.

  • So I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day, and only when I see something I understand, and when I like the price at which it's selling, then if I swing, if I hit it fine, if I miss it, it's a strike.

  • But it's an enormously advantageous game.

  • And it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything.

  • You only have to have an opinion on a few things.

  • In fact, I've told students if when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it, and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life, they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one.

  • And you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich.

  • Four or five will probably do it over time.

  • So I don't worry too much about the things.

  • I don't understand.

  • If you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on, if you can spot on Amazon, for example, I mean, it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done.

  • And I tip my hat to him.

  • He's a wonderful businessman.

  • He's a good guy, too.

  • But could I have anticipated that he would be the success and ten others wouldn't be?

  • I'm not good enough to do that.

  • But I don't.

  • Fortunately, I don't have to.

  • You know, I don't have to form an opinion on Amazon.

  • And I did form an opinion on the Bank of America, and I formed an opinion on Coca-Cola.

  • I mean, Coca-Cola has been around since 1886.

  • There's 1.8 billion, 1.8 billion, 8-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products sold every day.

  • Now, if you take one penny and get one penny extra, that's 18 million dollars a day.

  • And 18 million times 365 is 7,000,003, less 730 billion, or 6,570,000,000 dollars.

  • So annually, 6,570,000,000 dollars from one penny.

  • Do you think Coca-Cola is worth a penny more than, you know, Joe's Cola?

  • I think so.

  • So, you know, and I've got about 127 years of history that would indicate it.

  • So those are the kind of decisions I like to make.

  • And you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have, and probably much more up-to-date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing evolve.

  • And you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future.

They got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life.

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A2 US swing cola coca cola coca understand penny

為什麼大多數人投資都不賺錢?因為他們犯了這個錯誤... ► 巴菲特的致富哲學「棒球理論」 - Warren Buffett 巴菲特(中英字幕)

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    哈利 posted on 2025/01/31
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