The chicken war is a clucking good story.

雞的戰爭》是一個令人捧腹的好故事。

In post-World War II West Germany, people started eating a lot of chicken, specifically American chicken.

二戰後的西德，人們開始大量食用雞肉，特別是美國雞肉。

Midway through 1962, U.S. farmers were on track to sell more than $50 million worth, half a billion in today's money.

1962 年中期，美國農民的銷售額超過了 5000 萬美元，按現在的價格計算，達到了 5 億美元。

This made European farmers mad.

這讓歐洲農民很生氣。

So the organization that later became the European Union put a tariff on chicken.

於是，後來成為歐盟的組織對雞肉徵收關稅。

A five-pound chicken that started as $1.60 became $2.25.

一隻 5 磅重的雞從最初的 1.60 美元變成了 2.25 美元。

Imports quickly dropped.

進口量迅速下降。

U.S. chicken farmers and politicians were furious.

美國的養雞戶和政客們勃然大怒。

And we thought Germany's our big market for chicken.

我們認為德國是我們雞肉的大市場。

And so if we hurt the Germans, maybe we'll get them to change their mind on chicken.

是以，如果我們傷害了德國人，也許就能讓他們改變對雞肉的看法。

So the U.S. put a 25% tariff on trucks, like Germany's Volkswagen.

是以，美國對卡車徵收 25% 的關稅，比如德國的大眾汽車。

And it worked.

它成功了。

Their truck sales in the U.S. fell by half.

他們在美國的卡車銷量下降了一半。

And they never really recovered.

他們從此一蹶不振。

Meanwhile, Germans paid more for their chicken, and Americans had fewer truck options.

與此同時，德國人的雞肉價格更高，美國人的卡車選擇更少。

It's kind of a perfect example of what tariffs do.

這是關稅的一個完美例子。

Hurt consumers while protecting very specific industries, or attempt to get countries to change their behavior.

在保護特定行業的同時傷害消費者，或試圖讓國家改變其行為。

While they haven't been a large part of trade policy in decades, former President Donald Trump wants to change that.

雖然幾十年來，它們在貿易政策中的比重並不大，但前總統唐納德-特朗普希望改變這種狀況。

Some might say it's economic nationalism.

有人可能會說這是經濟民族主義。

I call it common sense.

我稱之為常識。

I call it America first.

我稱之為 "美國優先"。

President Trump has really sort of brought a lot of people out to think that tariffs might be something that's useful in America's economic arsenal in a way that hasn't been used in the past.

特朗普總統確實讓很多人意識到，關稅可能是美國經濟武器庫中有用的東西，而且是過去從未使用過的方式。

Here's how tariffs work and what Trump's proposals would do.

以下是關稅的運作方式以及特朗普的提案會起到什麼作用。

Let's start in 2018, when President Trump put tariffs on washing machines.

讓我們從 2018 年開始，特朗普總統對洗衣機徵收關稅。

We're going to benefit our consumers, and we're going to create a lot of jobs.

我們將造福消費者，創造大量就業機會。

Since then, whenever a washing machine is imported to the U.S., the company on the U.S. side doing the importing pays a tariff to the U.S. government.

從那時起，只要有洗衣機進口到美國，美方的進口公司就要向美國政府繳納關稅。

Their margins are pretty low.

他們的利潤率很低。

They've got to pass that price on to consumers who ultimately pay it.

他們必須把這個價格轉嫁給消費者，最終由消費者買單。

That's the whole point, in some sense, to reduce demand for those goods and create space for domestic producers.

從某種意義上說，這就是減少對這些商品的需求，為國內生產商創造空間的意義所在。

After the tariffs, not only did the price of imported washing machines go up, so did the ones made in the U.S.

徵收關稅後，不僅進口洗衣機價格上漲，美國製造的洗衣機價格也在上漲。

There's this myth out there that if we tax imports, domestic producers won't change their prices.

有一種說法是，如果我們對進口產品徵稅，國內生產商就不會改變價格。

And that's not the case.

事實並非如此。

You're creating more demand for them.

你為他們創造了更多的需求。

So naturally, the price goes up.

是以，價格自然會上漲。

And it wasn't just washers.

而且不僅僅是墊圈。

Dryers went up in price, too, even though they weren't part of the tariffs.

烘乾機也漲價了，儘管它們不在關稅之列。

Usually it's the case, if you buy a washer, you buy a dryer.

通常情況下，買了洗衣機，就得買烘乾機。

So even though dryers weren't directly affected by the tariff, they were indirectly affected by the shift in demand.

是以，即使烘乾機沒有受到關稅的直接影響，它們也受到了需求變化的間接影響。

Now, it wasn't all bad.

現在看來，這並不全是壞事。

These tariffs did create a lot of jobs.

這些關稅確實創造了大量就業機會。

About 1,800, mostly from those foreign companies like Samsung and LG opening plants in the U.S.

約 1,800 人，大部分來自三星和 LG 等在美國建廠的外國公司。

And a study found the U.S. collected $82 million annually.

一項研究發現，美國每年收取 8200 萬美元。

But because of those price increases, it cost consumers $1.5 billion more.

但由於這些價格上漲，消費者多花了 15 億美元。

So they basically paid $815,000 per job.

是以，他們基本上為每項工作支付了 81.5 萬美元。

This is a very expensive job creation program.

這是一個非常昂貴的創造就業計劃。

And so that's another reason why economists don't like tariffs.

是以，這也是經濟學家不喜歡關稅的另一個原因。

They're much more cost effective, more efficient ways of increasing employment in those industries.

它們是增加這些行業就業的成本效益更高、效率更高的方法。

These weren't the only tariffs Trump created in 2018.

特朗普在 2018 年創設的關稅不止這些。

The big ones were on steel and aluminum.

最重要的是鋼和鋁。

Those were really designed to punish China for its transgressions of international trade rules.

這實際上是為了懲罰中國違反國際貿易規則的行為。

Also for national security, they're used to make a lot of military equipment, but also everyday things like cars.

在國家安全方面，它們不僅用於製造大量軍事裝備，還用於製造汽車等日常用品。

All the industries that use steel and have to pay the higher price, that squeezes their profit margins.

所有使用鋼鐵的行業都必須支付更高的價格，這就擠壓了他們的利潤空間。

And it also puts them at a competitive disadvantage against foreign producers of those same goods, who don't have to pay those inflated costs for their inputs.

這也使他們在與生產同樣商品的外國生產商的競爭中處於不利地位，因為外國生產商無需為其投入支付這些高昂的成本。

And so a lot of studies have shown that you lose jobs, as many if not more jobs in those downstream industries, as you gain in the upstream industries that are being protected by the tariffs.

是以，許多研究表明，下游產業失去的就業機會，甚至比上游受關稅保護的產業獲得的就業機會還要多。

Many studies on the 2018 tariffs found some pros, some cons.

許多關於 2018 年關稅的研究發現，有的有利，有的有弊。

Manufacturing jobs, which were on the decline, didn't increase, but they did level out.

製造業的就業崗位雖然沒有增加，但也趨於平穩。

The overall economy lost jobs, mostly in those downstream industries.

整體經濟失去了工作崗位，主要是在這些下游行業。

And the costs of the tariffs were passed on to U.S. companies and consumers.

關稅成本轉嫁給了美國公司和消費者。

So not great for the economy, but it did motivate U.S. companies to move out of China and made supply chains more resilient.

是以，這對經濟來說並不是好事，但它確實促使美國公司撤出中國，並使供應鏈更具彈性。

But it didn't change much of China's behavior.

但這並沒有改變中國的很多行為。

And in many ways, they became more aggressive.

在許多方面，他們變得更加咄咄逼人。

But here's the thing.

但問題是

Even with all the economic downsides, a review by the Biden administration suggested Trump's tariffs should remain, and the administration should add or increase them, which they did.

即使存在種種經濟弊端，拜登政府的一份審查報告仍建議保留特朗普的關稅，政府應增加或提高關稅，他們也確實這麼做了。

Once tariffs get in place, there are two factors that sort of keep them in place for some time.

一旦關稅到位，有兩個因素會讓它們在一段時間內保持不變。

First of all, there are going to be domestic interest groups that have a stake in those tariffs maintained, because they like the extra market share that they've gained as a result of those tariffs.

首先，有一些國內利益集團希望維持這些關稅，因為他們喜歡因這些關稅而獲得的額外市場份額。

And second of all, tariffs are a bargaining chip.

其次，關稅是討價還價的籌碼。

So why would we sort of unilaterally get rid of these, even if there's some economic benefits, when we might use it in some negotiations down the road?

那麼，我們為什麼要單方面取消這些措施，即使有一定的經濟效益，但在接下來的談判中可能會用到呢？

Tariffs are really hard to remove.

關稅真的很難取消。

It's why, 60 years later, there's still a 25 percent tariff on trucks, even though U.S. chicken farmers no longer care about selling in Europe.

這就是為什麼 60 年後的今天，儘管美國雞農不再關心在歐洲的銷售，但對卡車仍徵收 25% 的關稅。

So we're still living with the legacy of the chicken war.

是以，我們仍然生活在雞肉戰爭的遺留問題中。

So that's sort of another lesson of history, is you have to be careful about imposing these tariffs because you think you're doing it for short-term strategic reasons, or you're just helping out this industry temporarily.

是以，這也是歷史的另一個教訓，那就是你必須小心謹慎地徵收這些關稅，因為你認為你這樣做是出於短期的戰略考慮，或者你只是暫時幫助了這個行業。

But they can last for decade upon decade upon decade.

但它們可以持續十年又十年。

Tariff policy is kind of old.

關稅政策有點過時了。

Even by the chicken war, they were only imposed on around 7 percent of U.S. imports.

即使到了雞肉戰爭時期，也只對約 7% 的美國進口商品徵收雞肉關稅。

Trump's plan for a second term is to bring them back dramatically.

特朗普的第二任期計劃就是要讓它們大幅迴歸。

This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save our country.

這是建設國家的政策，也是拯救國家的政策。

He's proposing a 60 percent tariff on everything from China, and a 10 or even 20 percent on every import from every other country.

他提議對來自中國的所有商品徵收 60% 的關稅，對來自其他國家的所有進口商品徵收 10% 甚至 20% 的關稅。

Countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world.

75 年後，各國終於要回報我們為世界所做的一切。

Multiple independent studies looked at the possible effects.

多項獨立研究對可能產生的影響進行了調查。

One found it would cost the average American household $1,700 from higher prices.

其中一項研究發現，價格上漲將使美國家庭平均損失 1700 美元。

Another found it could cost more than 684,000 jobs.

另一項研究發現，這可能會導致超過 684,000 個工作崗位流失。

And they don't factor in how domestic goods might get more expensive or retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

而且，他們也沒有考慮到國內商品可能會變得更加昂貴或其他國家的報復性關稅。

They're not going to take this lying down.

他們不會坐以待斃的。

They're not going to change their behavior in some way to appease the administration that imposes such tariffs.

他們不會為了討好徵收關稅的政府而改變自己的行為。

They're going to retaliate.

他們會報復的。

So not only will U.S. imports shrink, but U.S. exports will shrink as well.

是以，不僅美國的進口會萎縮，美國的出口也會萎縮。

Trump wants to use these tariffs as a revenue stream for the U.S. to pay for tax cuts.

特朗普希望利用這些關稅作為美國的收入來源來支付減稅。

As tariffs on foreign countries go up, taxes on American workers and families come down.

隨著外國關稅的增加，美國工人和家庭的稅收也隨之減少。

Studies found his proposal would likely bring in around a quarter of a trillion dollars per year, about 5 percent of what the federal government currently brings in with taxes.

研究發現，他的提案每年可能會帶來約 25 萬億美元的收入，約為聯邦政府目前稅收收入的 5%。

So if tariffs are harmful, always harmful even, to the economy, why is Trump so focused on them?

那麼，如果關稅對經濟有害，甚至永遠有害，特朗普為何如此重視關稅？

In the last 20 years, China has gotten aggressive, investing in manufacturing to become the world's largest exporter.

在過去的 20 年裡，中國積極進取，投資製造業，成為世界上最大的出口國。

Even today, they invest more than any other country.

即使在今天，他們的投資也超過了任何其他國家。

It has let them export things like steel and aluminum at below market values.

這讓他們以低於市場價值的價格出口鋼鐵和鋁等產品。

That, coupled with numerous trade rule violations.

再加上大量違反貿易規則的行為。

Allowed President Trump to really restart the whole discussion about using tariffs to achieve certain objectives, such as punishing other countries, and the Biden administration has just continued that.

這讓特朗普總統真正重啟了關於利用關稅來達到某些目的的討論，比如懲罰其他國家，而拜登政府只是在繼續這種做法。

So the whole environment has really changed from 20 years ago, when trade policy was pretty quiet business, and now we're talking about industrial policy, tariffs, subsidies, and all these different interventions, because the whole global and geopolitical environment has changed quite dramatically.

是以，與 20 年前相比，整個環境確實發生了變化，那時的貿易政策是相當平靜的事情，而現在我們談論的是產業政策、關稅、補貼以及所有這些不同的干預措施，因為整個全球和地緣政治環境已經發生了相當大的變化。

And it would change even more dramatically with Trump's proposed tariff plan.

而特朗普提出的關稅計劃將帶來更大的變化。

In the short run, we know the economy will suffer.

從短期來看，我們知道經濟會受到影響。

In the long run, no one really knows.

從長遠來看，沒有人真正知道。

Will it be a war between the U.S. and the rest of the world, or the Western world against China?

這將是美國與世界其他國家之間的戰爭，還是西方世界與中國之間的戰爭？

Trump wants to play a game of chicken to find out.

特朗普想通過 "吃雞 "遊戲來一探究竟。