I'm Dana Taylor.

我是達娜-泰勒

As wildfires continue to rage across Los Angeles, the urgency of the housing crisis is front and center for Angelenos.

隨著野火繼續在洛杉磯肆虐，住房危機的緊迫性成為安吉麗娜人關注的焦點。

With thousands of homes gone, the various issues that have plagued the real estate industry for decades now are just that much more urgent.

隨著數以千計的房屋消失，困擾房地產行業數十年的各種問題變得更加緊迫。

Where will people live, and at what cost?

人們將住在哪裡？

Here to help us dig into all of it now, we're joined by Peter Dreyer.

彼得-德雷爾（Peter Dreyer）將在這裡幫助我們深入探討這一切。

An urban and environmental policy professor at Occidental College.

西方學院城市與環境政策教授。

Thanks for joining me, Peter.

感謝您的參與，彼得。

That's my pleasure.

這是我的榮幸。

Los Angeles, like much of the country, was already in the middle of a housing crisis before the fires destroyed so many homes.

與美國大部分地區一樣，洛杉磯在大火燒燬眾多房屋之前就已經陷入了住房危機。

Can you give me a lay of the land here?

你能給我介紹一下這裡的情況嗎？

How dire is the housing issue in LA right now, and how did we get here?

洛杉磯目前的住房問題有多嚴重？

Well, you're right.

你說得對

Long before the fires hit Los Angeles, the city and the region had probably the worst housing crisis in the country.

早在大火襲擊洛杉磯之前，該市和該地區就可能面臨著全國最嚴重的住房危機。

By that, I mean that not only were there 75,000 homeless people in the county of LA and about 50,000 homeless people in the city of LA, a city of 4 million people, but housing costs were astronomical.

我的意思是，不僅洛杉磯縣有 7.5 萬名無家可歸者，洛杉磯市（一個擁有 400 萬人口的城市）也有約 5 萬名無家可歸者，而且住房成本更是天文數字。

The typical rent for a two-bedroom apartment in LA was about $2,500 a month.

洛杉磯一套兩居室公寓的月租金一般為 2500 美元左右。

Very few people in Los Angeles could afford that.

在洛杉磯，很少有人能負擔得起。

According to a study by the National Low-Income Housing Coalition, a renter in Los Angeles had to have an income of about $48 an hour just to afford a typical two-bedroom apartment, and very few renters in LA had anything close to a $48 an hour income.

根據全國低收入住房聯盟的一項研究，洛杉磯的租房者必須每小時有大約 48 美元的收入，才能負擔得起一套典型的兩居室公寓，而洛杉磯很少有租房者的收入接近每小時 48 美元。

So, the city really had a dire problem.

是以，這座城市確實面臨著嚴峻的問題。

The new mayor, Karen Bass, had a program to try to get people off of the streets into hotels and then eventually into permanent housing, and that worked a bit.

新任市長卡倫-巴斯（Karen Bass）制定了一項計劃，試圖讓人們離開街頭，住進旅館，最終住進永久性住房，這項計劃取得了一些成效。

Over the last year, nationally, the homeless numbers went up about 18%.

去年，全國無家可歸者人數上升了約 18%。

In Los Angeles, they came down about 3% or 4%, so progress has been made, but not fast enough and not comprehensive enough to make a big difference, and so in almost any neighborhood in Los Angeles, particularly in the commercial areas where the shops are, you can find lots of homeless people on the streets.

在洛杉磯，他們的人數下降了大約 3%或 4%，是以取得了一些進展，但還不夠快，也不夠全面，不足以產生很大的影響，是以在洛杉磯的幾乎任何一個社區，特別是在商店林立的商業區，你都可以在街上發現很多無家可歸的人。

Peter, I know you've written a lot about the LA housing crisis.

彼得，我知道你寫過很多關於洛杉磯住房危機的文章。

There are a lot of conflicting interests here and a huge wealth disparity between some of the stakeholders.

這裡有很多利益衝突，一些利益相關者之間的貧富差距也很大。

How has this issue played out on the ground?

這個問題在當地是如何解決的？

Well, it plays out on the ground in a number of ways.

那麼，這在實地會有多種表現形式。

One is that there's a dire need for more affordable housing, more rental housing, and the city is under a requirement by the state to add about half a million new units of housing in the next decade, of which about a third or a half should be affordable to low-income people and working-class people, and by that I mean teachers and nurses and hotel workers and hospital workers, and the problem is that in the middle-class homeowner neighborhoods, there's a real NIMBY problem, a not-in-my-backyard problem, which means they don't want rental housing, they don't want working-class people in their neighborhoods.

一是現在急需更多的經濟適用房，更多的出租房，而根據州政府的要求，未來十年本市將新增約50萬套住房，其中約三分之一或一半應為低收入人群和工薪階層所能負擔得起、我指的是教師、護士、酒店員工和醫院員工，問題是在中產階級業主社區，存在一個真正的 "NIMBY "問題，即 "不在我家後院 "的問題，這意味著他們不想要出租房，不想要工人階級住進他們的社區。

The Pacific Palisades, which is one of the areas that was hit the hardest by the fires, the typical house is worth about $2 million, and so they and many other neighborhoods, when a developer would propose to build a two-story or a four-story or a six-story apartment building with maybe 20 to 50 units, they had organized to get their city council member to try to stop it, and so there's been a real lag in the number of units that the city needs.

太平洋帕利塞德是受火災影響最嚴重的地區之一，這裡的房子一般價值約 200 萬美元，是以，當開發商提議建造一棟兩層、四層或六層的公寓樓（可能有 20 到 50 個單元）時，他們和許多其他社區都會組織起來，讓他們的市議員設法阻止，是以，城市所需的單元數量確實出現了滯後。

The city needs to build at least 50,000 units a year just to keep up with the demand, and over the last decade or so, it's only built an average of about 10,000 units a year, so every year Los Angeles falls further and further behind, and it's partly because wealthy homeowners and even middle-class homeowners don't want rental housing.

洛杉磯市每年至少需要建造 5 萬套住房才能滿足需求，而在過去十多年裡，平均每年只建造了約 1 萬套住房，是以洛杉磯每年都在落後，部分原因是富裕房主甚至中產階級房主都不想要租賃住房。

I think that's changing a bit now after the fires because a lot of the people who were affected by the fires were middle-class people, although lots of poor and working-class people were affected too, and so we've got now a lot of middle-income professionals who can't afford to buy a house.

我認為，火災發生後，這種情況正在發生一些變化，因為受火災影響的很多人都是中產階級，儘管也有很多窮人和工人階級受到了影響，所以我們現在有很多中等收入的專業人士買不起房子。

They're going to be renters for a long time, and so they will need more rental housing, and the question is, if we build more rental housing in the city, will it be affordable to the people that need it most, and that's going to require subsidies.

他們將長期租房居住，是以需要更多的出租房，問題是，如果我們在城市裡建造更多的出租房，是否能讓最需要的人負擔得起，這就需要補貼。

That's what the federal government did for much of the 20th century but has stopped doing for the most part over the last 50 years or so where there hasn't been a significant increase in the federal budget for housing for almost half a century.

聯邦政府在 20 世紀的大部分時間裡都是這麼做的，但在過去 50 年左右的時間裡，聯邦政府在住房方面的預算幾乎半個世紀都沒有大幅增加，大部分時間都不再這麼做了。

You've been involved in urban policy for 30 years.

您從事城市政策工作已有 30 年。

What role do urban planners play in mitigating wildfire risks in high-density areas like LA?

在像洛杉磯這樣的高密度地區，城市規劃者在降低野火風險方面扮演著怎樣的角色？

Is fire resilience integrated enough here in your view, and what went wrong from a policy perspective in your opinion?

在你看來，這裡的火災恢復能力是否足夠綜合，在你看來，從政策角度看，哪裡出了問題？

Well, there's a lot of building in dangerous areas in Los Angeles that are subject to earthquakes, to mudslides, to floods, hurricanes, and now climate change, and there's a phenomenon called the Santa Ana winds, which come every year.

在洛杉磯的危險地區有很多建築，這些地區容易發生地震、泥石流、洪水、颶風，現在又出現了氣候變化，每年都會颳起一種叫做聖安娜風的現象。

They came earlier this year of 70, 80 miles an hour winds that are unpredictable in terms of where they're going to go, and you add to that global warming and the lack of rain, and Los Angeles was a ticking time bomb that's waiting to explode in terms of another fire.

今年早些時候，洛杉磯颳起了時速 70、80 英里的大風，風向難以預測，再加上全球變暖和雨水稀少，洛杉磯就像一顆定時炸彈，隨時等待著另一場大火的爆發。

Nobody would have predicted it would have been as bad as the one that we saw now in the Pacific Palisades and in Altadena, which is in an unincorporated area of about 50,000 people just outside of Los Angeles.

沒有人會預料到，情況會像我們現在在太平洋帕利塞德和阿爾塔迪納看到的那樣糟糕，阿爾塔迪納位於洛杉磯郊外一個約有 5 萬人的未併入地區。

We've lost 150,000 people have lost their homes.

我們已經失去了 15 萬人的家園。

Not all of them have been destroyed, but their homes are now full with toxics, with soot, with smoke, with ash, so a lot of people lost their homes, and other people, including myself, had to evacuate.

不是所有的人都被摧毀了，但他們的家園現在充滿了有毒物質、煙塵、濃煙和灰燼，是以很多人失去了家園，其他人，包括我自己，不得不撤離。

It'll take a month or two or three before our homes are cleaned, but for the thousands of people that actually lost their homes, it's going to take three or maybe two and a half, three years to clear out all the toxic debris and to decide whether the families want to rebuild their homes the way it was.

我們的家園需要一兩個月或三兩個月才能清理乾淨，但對於成千上萬真正失去家園的人來說，他們需要三年，甚至兩年半、三年的時間來清理所有有毒廢墟，並決定是否要按照原來的方式重建家園。

Now, think about a neighborhood that had, let's say, 30 homes on the block, and of those homeowners, half of them want to come back.

比方說，一個街區有 30 戶人家，在這些房主中，有一半人想回來。

The other half say, it's not worth it.

另一半人說，這不值得。

I'm going to move somewhere else.

我要搬到別的地方去。

I'm going to collect the insurance and get another house or a condo or downsize somewhere else.

我要去領保險金，然後再買一棟房子或公寓，或者縮小到其他地方。

What is the city going to do about that block that's like a comb where half of the lots are now empty or vacant?

這個街區就像一個梳子，一半的地塊現在都是空的或空置的，市政府打算怎麼處理？

So that takes city planning.

是以，這需要城市規劃。

That takes the city having to make some hard choices about what they want to do with these two major neighborhoods, Altadena and Pacific Palisades, in the future, and there's a lot of conflicting interests about whether or not they should rebuild them the way they were, whether they should require more fire-protective materials if they rebuild, whether or not they should allow as many people to have cars, and whether they can build rental housing on some of that property that would be affordable to people of all different kinds of incomes.

這就要求市政府必須做出一些艱難的抉擇，考慮將來如何處理阿爾塔蒂納和太平洋帕利塞茲這兩個主要社區，在是否應該按照原來的方式重建、重建時是否應該要求更多的防火材料、是否應該允許更多的人擁有汽車，以及是否可以在其中一些房產上建造各種不同收入的人都能負擔得起的出租房等問題上，存在著很多利益衝突。

So there's a lot of planning that has to get done, but there's a problem politically with that, which is that people want to get back into their homes.

是以，有很多規劃工作必須完成，但這在政治上存在一個問題，那就是人們希望回到自己的家中。

As quickly as possible.

儘快

You brought this up earlier and I want to circle back because we can't talk about housing in L.A. without also acknowledging the still-growing homeless population.

你之前提到了這個問題，我想再回過頭來談談，因為我們在討論洛杉磯的住房問題時，不能不承認無家可歸的人口仍在不斷增加。

What's their fate following the fires?

大火之後，他們的命運如何？

We had about 45 or 50,000 homeless people in Los Angeles two months ago before the fires.

兩個月前，在洛杉磯發生火災之前，大約有 4.5 萬或 5 萬名無家可歸者。

Now we probably have, in terms of people who don't have permanent shelter at all, we probably have closer to 100,000.

現在，就根本沒有永久住所的人而言，我們可能有接近 10 萬人。

So maybe it's doubled.

所以，也許是翻了一番。

But think about all the people who were the nannies, the housekeepers, the gardeners.

但想想那些做保姆、管家和園丁的人吧。

They don't have jobs anymore and they've got to pay rent if they want to find an apartment.

他們沒有工作了，想找房子也得交房租。

They don't have a job and they don't have many choices because the vacancy rate for rental housing in Los Angeles before the fire was about 3 percent, meaning it was almost invisible.

他們沒有工作，也沒有太多選擇，因為在火災發生前，洛杉磯的出租房空置率約為 3%，這意味著幾乎看不到空置房。

There was hardly any place to go.

幾乎無處可去。

And now it's probably even much smaller than that.

現在可能比這還要小得多。

And to make matters worse, a lot of landlords are rent gouging.

更糟糕的是，很多房東都在哄抬房租。

I'd like to shift to some solutions here.

在此，我想談談一些解決方案。

How do we incentivize developers to build more affordable housing in the region?

我們如何激勵開發商在該地區建造更多經濟適用房？

In L.A. specifically, how do we quickly get more available housing for some of the people who've lost their homes?

特別是在洛杉磯，我們如何才能儘快為一些失去家園的人提供更多可用住房？

Yeah, that's absolutely the right question.

是的，這絕對是個正確的問題。

So one city on its own cannot solve the housing crisis.

是以，單靠一個城市是無法解決住房危機的。

Los Angeles doesn't have enough money to subsidize the number of units that are needed to help.

洛杉磯沒有足夠的資金來補貼需要幫助的組織、部門數量。

So we really need the state and particularly the federal government to do that.

是以，我們真的需要州政府，特別是聯邦政府來做這件事。

I don't expect that to happen under President Trump, so that's a dilemma.

我不指望特朗普總統能做到這一點，所以這是一個難題。

As I said earlier, what the city could do is to redesign some of the neighborhoods so that people that want to move back into those neighborhoods when their homes are burned down can move back, but not necessarily in the exact location where they were before, so that the city could assemble development parcels that are big enough to build apartment buildings of four units or ten units or 50 units, depending on where it is.

正如我之前所說，市政府可以做的是重新設計一些社區，讓那些房屋被燒燬後想搬回這些社區的人可以搬回來，但不一定要搬回原來的確切位置，這樣市政府就可以根據具體情況，將足夠大的開發地塊集中起來，建造4個單元、10個單元或50個單元的公寓樓。

The city really has to rezone itself so that it doesn't prohibit people from building two and three and four unit buildings where there are single family homes now.

城市確實需要重新規劃自己的區域，這樣就不會禁止人們在現在有獨戶住宅的地方建造兩單元、三單元和四單元的樓房。

But ultimately, we have to make a decision as a society whether housing is a human right or it's a privilege for those who can afford it.

但歸根結底，我們必須作為一個社會做出決定，住房是一項人權，還是有能力者的特權。

But there ought to be a portion of the housing stock in LA and every other city that is immune from market forces, from speculators, from Wall Street, from banks, from greedy landlords, and allow people to live in these homes at an affordable rent or an affordable that they will be foreclosed on or that they will be evicted if they don't have a job or if their job doesn't keep pace with the rate of inflation.

但在洛杉磯和其他城市，應該有一部分住房不受市場力量、投機者、華爾街、銀行和貪婪房東的影響，允許人們以可負擔的租金或可負擔的價格居住在這些房屋中，如果他們沒有工作或工作跟不上通貨膨脹率，他們就會被取消贖回權或被驅逐。

Lots of other countries have done this, so there's no reason why the United States can't do it, except we have to have the political will to make it happen.

許多其他國家已經做到了這一點，所以美國沒有理由做不到，只是我們必須有政治意願來實現這一點。

And finally, as you know, across the country we've been experiencing a severe housing shortage for years.

最後，正如你們所知，多年來，全國各地一直存在嚴重的住房短缺問題。

What do you think is the most important focus area for the people who want to fix this issue?

您認為對於想要解決這一問題的人來說，最重要的重點領域是什麼？

Under Jimmy Carter, the president in the 1970s, there was a co-op back which lent money to cooperatives, consumer cooperatives, employee cooperatives, and tenant cooperatives.

在 20 世紀 70 年代的總統吉米-卡特執政時期，有一個合作社後援會，向合作社、消費者合作社、僱員合作社和租戶合作社提供貸款。

We need that again, except at a much bigger level.

我們再次需要這樣的機會，只不過是在更大的層面上。

The federal government could both create the ability to circulate more money into the housing market, but under regulations to avoid speculation.

聯邦政府既可以創造能力，讓更多的資金進入住房市場流通，又可以根據規定避免投機。

It could impose new zoning laws on states and cities.

它可能會給各州和城市帶來新的分區法律。

It could expand the amount of housing vouchers in the country so that renters can afford to buy to rent homes.

它可以擴大全國住房券的數量，讓租房者買得起房，租得起房。

And importantly, if it wanted to, it could make it harder for Wall Street and corporate landlords to gobble up the existing rental housing stock by using its antitrust policies.

更重要的是，如果政府願意，它可以利用其反壟斷政策，讓華爾街和公司房東更難吞噬現有的租賃住房存量。

I don't expect any of that to happen under Donald Trump, but those are the kinds of solutions that could get us out of this incredible housing mess.

我不指望在唐納德-特朗普的上司下會發生這樣的事情，但這些都是可以讓我們擺脫令人難以置信的住房困境的解決方案。

We have one of the worst housing crises in the world.

我們面臨著世界上最嚴重的住房危機之一。

We're not a third world country.

我們不是第三世界國家。

People don't live in the kind of shacks that most people live in, in lots of big cities in Asia and in Africa and in parts of Latin America.

在亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲部分地區的許多大城市，人們並不像大多數人那樣住在棚屋裡。

But we do have almost a million people every night living on the streets or living in shelters.

但每晚確實有近百萬人流落街頭或住在避難所。

That's bigger than some countries.

這比一些國家還大。

And there's no excuse for a country as wealthy as the United States to have 900,000 or a million homeless people on the streets or in shelters every night.

像美國這樣富裕的國家，每晚都有 90 萬或 100 萬無家可歸者流落街頭或住在收容所裡，這是毫無道理的。

It's a violation of all the human rights that we pretend to believe in.

這違反了我們假裝信奉的所有人權。

And that's true in every city in America.

美國的每個城市都是如此。

Dana Taylor Peter, I know that you and your family have been affected by the fires in L.A.

丹娜-泰勒-彼得，我知道你和你的家人受到了洛杉磯大火的影響。

I really appreciate you taking time out to join us on the excerpt today. Sure, my pleasure. Thanks for watching.

我真的很感謝你今天抽出時間來參加我們的節選。 當然，我的榮幸。 感謝您的收看。

I'm Dana Taylor.

我是達娜-泰勒

I'll see you next time.

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