A new report is sounding the alarm over the impact of artificial intelligence.

一份新報告對人工智能的影響敲響了警鐘。

With 60% of roles will be affected.

60% 的角色將受到影響。

I think no job is safe.

我認為沒有一份工作是安全的。

And you've probably only heard those calls get louder as tools like ChatQPT and other types of generative AI have been released.

隨著 ChatQPT 和其他類型的生成式人工智能工具的發佈，你可能只會聽到這些呼聲越來越高。

I'm here to argue that AI is not going to cause a rise in unemployment.

我在這裡要說的是，人工智能不會導致失業率上升。

I think it's actually increased employment in the United States, not decreased it.

我認為這實際上增加了美國的就業，而不是減少了就業。

And I think understanding why is really important to understanding how the labor market works and what to expect for the future of American jobs.

我認為，瞭解原因對於理解勞動力市場如何運作以及對美國就業前景的預期非常重要。

When ChatQPT was first released, you probably heard the extremely numerous takes that unemployment was going to rise very quickly and that was going to drastically change the macroeconomy.

當《ChatQPT》首次發佈時，你可能聽到了大量關於失業率將迅速上升、宏觀經濟將發生鉅變的說法。

Well, it's been more than a year since ChatQPT was released and the unemployment rate in the United States has stayed the same.

ChatQPT 已經發布一年多了，美國的失業率卻沒有變化。

In fact, if you look at employment in the U.S., it's near some of the highest levels on record.

事實上，美國的就業率已接近歷史最高水準。

And they've only increased over the last few years since the start of the pandemic.

而且自大流行病開始以來的幾年裡，它們的數量只增不減。

And the economy has gone through tectonic economic shifts before.

而且，經濟曾經經歷過構造性的經濟轉變。

Think the rise of the smartphone or the rise of the Internet or the rise of the phone in the first place or even things as simple as elevator buttons that put elevator operators out of work.

想想智能手機的興起，想想互聯網的興起，想想電話的興起，甚至想想電梯按鈕讓電梯操作員失業這樣簡單的事情。

These created new jobs that more than replaced the jobs lost by technological change.

這些創造的新工作崗位足以取代因技術變革而失去的工作崗位。

In fact, if you look at data from the U.S.

事實上，如果您看一下美國的數據

Census Bureau on one of the most comprehensive surveys of businesses in America, the vast majority of businesses said that AI has not affected their employment levels at all.

在美國人口普查局對美國企業進行的一次最全面的調查中，絕大多數企業表示，人工智能完全沒有影響他們的就業水準。

And if you look at the subset of businesses that said AI affected their employment levels, the majority said that it increased the number of people they had on staff, not decreased.

如果你看一下那些說人工智能影響了他們的就業水準的企業，大多數都說人工智能增加了他們的員工數量，而不是減少了。

Humans aren't just tools.

人類不僅僅是工具

And the economy as a whole is a social construct, a social construct built to benefit humans.

而經濟作為一個整體，是一種社會建構，一種為人類造福的社會建構。

People as individuals seek the most valuable work they can do to get the biggest pay they can have and they naturally find the kind of jobs that are valuable to others.

人們作為個體，會尋求最有價值的工作，以獲得最大的報酬，自然也會找到對他人有價值的工作。

That's not to say that all industries and all occupations are going to be completely unaffected.

這並不是說所有行業和職業都會完全不受影響。

There's going to be a shift away from the kind of work that AI is able to do exceptionally well and towards the kind of work that humans can specialize in.

人工智能能夠出色完成的工作將逐漸減少，而轉向人類能夠專門從事的工作。

Predicting what that work is, is a lot harder than you think.

預測工作內容比你想象的要難得多。

Go back five years, go back 10 years, people were most worried about autonomous vehicles that could put truck drivers out of work in the future.

倒退五年，倒退十年，人們最擔心的是自動駕駛汽車將來會讓卡車司機失業。

Fast forward to today, people are most worried about white-collar jobs in offices and businesses, not truck drivers.

時至今日，人們最擔心的是辦公室和企業的白領工作，而不是卡車司機。

Keep in mind, there has always been job churn in the US economy.

請記住，美國經濟中一直存在就業流失。

Millions of people are laid off every year, millions more are hired, and millions quit their jobs to find something better.

每年有數百萬人失業，又有數百萬人被僱傭，還有數百萬人為了找到更好的工作而辭職。

That job churn is a natural part of how the US economy works and we should, as a country, care about the people who lose their jobs because they're here today, not because we're worried about AI possibly causing unemployment in the future.

就業流失是美國經濟運行的一個自然組成部分，作為一個國家，我們應該關心那些因為今天在這裡而失去工作的人，而不是因為我們擔心人工智能可能會在未來造成失業。

Want to dive deeper?

想深入瞭解？

Become a Big Think member and join our members-only community.

成為 Big Think 會員，加入我們的會員專屬社區。

Watch videos early and unlock full interviews.

提前觀看視頻，解鎖完整訪談。