Some of these are lies that you're being told by other people, by institutions that are profiting off your continued belief.

其中有些謊言是別人告訴你的，是那些靠你的持續信仰牟利的機構告訴你的。

But the worst ones are the lies that you're telling yourself.

但最糟糕的是你對自己撒的謊。

And the hardest thing is that part of you wants them to be true.

而最困難的是，你的一部分希望它們是真的。

No matter who you are, if you are investing, you will be grappling with these right now, and you probably don't even realise.

無論你是誰，只要你在投資，你現在就會遇到這些問題，而且你可能根本沒有意識到。

So in this video, I'm going to shine a light on these lies to try and help you avoid making mistakes that could be costing you serious amounts of money.

是以，在本視頻中，我將揭露這些謊言，幫助你避免犯錯，以免損失慘重。

So let's get into it.

那我們就開始吧。

In almost everything that we do in life, the more effort you put in, the better the results you get.

在我們生活中所做的幾乎每一件事中，你付出的努力越多，得到的結果就越好。

Whether that's studying for an exam, playing golf, or raising children, the more effort that you put in, the more time that you spend honing your skills, the better the results that you're likely to get, which is why this first lie is so easy to believe.

無論是學習考試、打高爾夫球，還是養育孩子，你付出的努力越多，花在磨練技能上的時間越多，你就可能獲得越好的結果，這就是為什麼第一個謊言如此容易讓人相信。

And there are several trillion dollar industries that are profiting off this belief.

有數萬億美元的產業正從這種信念中獲利。

If you ask the average person what they think it takes to be a successful stock market investor, they will probably tell you that they think you need to spend a huge amount of time and effort in analysing companies, funds, reading for the financial press, and trying to interpret economic events.

如果你問普通人，他們認為要成為一名成功的股市投資者需要具備哪些條件，他們很可能會告訴你，他們認為你需要花費大量的時間和精力來分析公司、基金、閱讀財經新聞，並努力解讀經濟事件。

But this is a lie.

但這是謊言。

A lie that the trillion dollar asset management industry wants you to believe.

萬億美元資產管理行業希望你相信的謊言。

They want you to believe that it's really complicated and that to be successful, you need a lot of experience, time, and analytical resources.

他們希望你相信，這真的很複雜，要想成功，你需要大量的經驗、時間和分析資源。

And if you don't have those things, you could lose a lot of money.

如果沒有這些東西，你可能會損失很多錢。

They want you to believe this, not only because it means that then you're more likely to hand over all of your investments to them to manage, but even if you do choose to manage your own investments, if you believe that you have to be active to be successful, you're more likely to trade and buy into the products that they have to sell.

他們希望你相信這一點，不僅因為這意味著你更有可能將所有投資交給他們管理，而且即使你選擇自己管理投資，如果你相信必須積極才能成功，你就更有可能交易和購買他們要出售的產品。

The financial press and content creators are in on this too, because they want you to believe that there is value in their content, that you can and should be making tactical changes to your investments based on the events that they report on and what they have to say.

財經媒體和內容創作者也參與其中，因為他們希望你相信他們的內容是有價值的，你可以而且應該根據他們報道的事件和他們所說的內容對你的投資進行戰術性調整。

But again, this is a lie.

但這同樣是謊言。

And not only does this lie prevent so many people from getting into investing in the first place, because they think it's so complicated, but for those that do invest, this mantra of you needing to be active to get good results leads to a lot of mistakes.

這個謊言不僅阻礙了許多人從一開始就參與投資，因為他們認為這太複雜了，而且對於那些參與投資的人來說，"你需要積極才能取得好結果 "的口頭禪也會導致許多錯誤。

The truth is that investing in the stock market is probably one of the only disciplines where the less you do, the better your results.

事實上，股市投資可能是唯一一門做得越少，效果越好的學科。

I know it's hard to believe because it's so counterintuitive but for 99.9% of people, 99.9% of the time, this is true.

我知道這很難讓人相信，因為它太違反直覺了，但對 99.9% 的人來說，99.9% 的時間裡，這是真的。

You do not need to do a lot of research or invest a lot of time to get great results.

您不需要做大量的研究，也不需要投入大量的時間，就能取得很好的效果。

In fact, you should think of your investment portfolio like it's a bar of soap.

事實上，你應該把你的投資組合當成一塊肥皂。

The more you touch it, the less of it you have.

你接觸它越多，它就越少。

Now, before you click away thinking that this is just another active versus passive debate, sit back down because this goes way deeper.

現在，在你以為這又是一場主動與被動的辯論之前，請坐下來，因為這涉及到更深層次的問題。

Let me show you.

讓我示範給你看

Every year, Morningstar produces a report called Mind the Gap that analyses investment funds to understand how good investors are at making decisions.

晨星公司每年都會發布一份名為 "注意差距"（Mind the Gap）的報告，對投資基金進行分析，以瞭解投資者的決策能力。

When looking at the US market between 2012 and 2022, the average fund returned 7.7% per year but the aggregate return that investors in those funds received was just 6%.

縱觀 2012 年至 2022 年間的美國市場，平均每年的基金回報率為 7.7%，但這些基金的投資者獲得的總回報率僅為 6%。

So 1.68% less per year.

是以，每年減少 1.68%。

How is this possible?

這怎麼可能？

How can investors get lower returns than the funds that they invest in?

投資者的收益怎麼會低於他們所投資的基金？

It's nothing to do with fees.

這與收費無關。

Both of these returns are netted fees.

這兩項收益均已扣除費用。

What is it?

是什麼？

Surely if you invest into a fund and just hold it, then you'll get exactly the same return as the fund, right?

當然，如果你投資於基金並持有它，那麼你將獲得與基金完全相同的回報，對嗎？

Yes, but that's not what most people do.

是的，但這不是大多數人的做法。

Here's an example that Morningstar provides.

下面是 Morningstar 提供的一個例子。

This red line here shows the performance of the J.P. Morgan Pacific Technology Fund.

這條紅線顯示的是摩根大通太平洋科技基金（J.P. Morgan Pacific Technology Fund）的業績。

If you had invested in this fund in June 2018 and then held it for five years until June 2023, you would have received a return of about 8%, exactly the same as the fund.

如果您在 2018 年 6 月投資該基金，然後持有 5 年至 2023 年 6 月，您將獲得約 8%的回報，與該基金完全相同。

But few investors actually did that.

但很少有投資者真正這樣做。

The blue bars show us the inflows and outflows of this fund.

藍色柱狀圖顯示了該基金的流入和流出情況。

Between 2018 and 2020, you can see how money was flowing out of the fund when the fund wasn't performing that well.

從 2018 年到 2020 年，你可以看到在基金表現不佳時，資金是如何流出的。

But in 2020, during the pandemic, technology valuations went through the roof and this fund notched up an 82% return for that year.

但在 2020 年大流行病期間，技術估值急劇上升，該基金當年的回報率高達 82%。

And we can see how after this performance showed up, hundreds of millions of dollars started flowing into the fund, which is just a classic example of investors being active, trying to be smart, but just ending up chasing performance, which as you can see, turned out to be a big mistake as the fund fell by 55% through to October 2022.

我們可以看到，在這一業績出現後，數億美元開始流入該基金，這只是一個投資者積極、努力變得聰明，但最終卻只是追逐業績的典型例子，正如你所看到的，結果是一個很大的錯誤，因為該基金到 2022 年 10 月下跌了 55%。

Meaning that although this fund achieved a positive return over the period, because the majority of investors' assets went in after the good performance had already shown up, on aggregate, they're now sitting at a big loss.

這意味著，儘管該基金在此期間取得了正收益，但由於大部分投資者的資產是在良好業績已經顯現之後才投入的，是以從總體上看，他們現在正處於鉅額虧損之中。

The phenomenon that investors tend to make poor timing decisions that then result in them underperforming the funds that they invest in is well-documented, with other studies finding similar results across both active and passive funds.

投資者往往會做出錯誤的擇時決策，從而導致他們所投資的基金表現不佳，這一現象已得到充分證實，其他研究也發現主動型基金和被動型基金都有類似的結果。

To put into perspective just how damaging this is, if you invested 100,000 pounds and achieved a 7.7% return for 30 years, you'd have 928,000 pounds at the end.

如果你投資 10 萬英鎊，30 年的回報率為 7.7%，那麼最後你將擁有 92.8 萬英鎊。

But if you only achieved a return of 6%, you'd end up with 580,000 pounds.

但如果你的回報率只有 6%，那麼你最終會得到 58 萬英鎊。

That's almost 40% less.

這幾乎減少了 40%。

This is how much the mentality of trying to be smart, trying to be active, is costing the average investor.

這就是 "自作聰明 "和 "積極進取 "的心態給普通投資者帶來的損失。

There's more that we can learn from this Morningstar report.

從晨星的這份報告中，我們還能學到更多。

Across all funds, investors underperformed the funds that they invest in by 1.68% per year.

在所有基金中，投資者每年的投資業績比所投資的基金低 1.68%。

But there are some stark differences between categories of fund.

但是，不同類別的基金之間也存在一些明顯的差異。

The widest gap was in sector equity, where investors underperformed by a whopping 4.38% per year, whereas the lowest gap was for allocation funds at 0.46%, which makes a lot of sense.

差距最大的是行業股票，投資者的表現每年差 4.38%，而差距最小的是配置型基金，為 0.46%，這很有道理。

Allocation funds are designed to provide an entire diversified investment portfolio within a single fund, by investing in a combination of stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, often from all across the world.

配置型基金旨在通過投資於股票、債券和其他資產類別（通常來自世界各地）的組合，在單一基金內提供一個完整的多元化投資組合。

So people that buy these funds are generally looking for something that they don't need to play around with.

是以，購買這些基金的人一般都在尋找他們不需要玩弄的東西。

People that have a set it and forget it mentality and are less likely to react to market events.

抱著 "定了就忘 "心態的人，不太可能對市場事件做出反應。

Sector equity funds, however, are used by people who want to make bets on specific sectors of the stock market outperforming.

而行業股票基金則被那些希望押注股市特定行業表現優異的人所使用。

This could be a fund focused on technology, pharmaceuticals, clean energy, cannabis, AI, or any other exotic category that the asset management industry thinks that they can sell.

這可能是一個專注於技術、製藥、清潔能源、大麻、人工智能或任何其他資產管理行業認為可以出售的奇特類別的基金。

These funds are designed for and marketed to people that think that being active is a good thing.

這些基金的設計和營銷對象是那些認為積極活動是件好事的人。

And look at the results.

再看看結果。

Correlation is not causation, but this is certainly suggesting that the more you touch your portfolio, the lesser that you end up with.

相關性並不代表因果關係，但這無疑表明，你接觸的投資組合越多，你最終獲得的收益就越少。

Now I often meet people that say,

現在，我經常遇到這樣的人

James, I'm ahead of the game because I already invest in index funds.

詹姆斯，我走在了遊戲的前面，因為我已經投資了指數基金。

But then when I look at their portfolio, they have 12 different index funds and they're clearly making big bets on certain areas outperforming others.

但當我看他們的投資組合時，他們有 12 種不同的指數基金，顯然他們在某些領域的表現要優於其他領域，下了很大的賭注。

And then when I look at their transaction history,

然後，當我查看他們的交易記錄時、

I can see that they keep chopping and changing between them.

我可以看到，他們在這兩者之間不停地切換。

People often end up being very active, but with passive funds.

人們最終往往非常積極，但使用的是被動基金。

So what can we learn from all this?

那麼，我們能從這一切中學到什麼呢？

We're not saying that all active management is bad all of the time, but for 99% of people, the less you touch your investments, the better the results that you're likely to get.

我們並不是說所有的主動管理都不好，但對於 99% 的人來說，你越少接觸你的投資，你可能得到的結果就越好。

Of course, you need to make sure that you're invested in the right thing in the first place, something that you can stick with.

當然，你首先要確保你投資的東西是正確的，是你可以堅持的。

But this could be as simple as a single globally diversified fund.

但這可能只是一個單一的全球多元化基金。

Then all we need to do is set up a direct debit so that you're investing on autopilot and you're never tempted to hold back money.

然後，我們需要做的就是設置直接借記，這樣你就可以自動進行投資，再也不會受到資金滯留的誘惑。

And then ignore the news and get on with the rest of your life.

然後忽略新聞，繼續你的生活。

Then the only time that you need to get active, the only time that you ever need to sell is if you need to change the risk of your portfolio, which might not be for five, 10, or even 15 years, or when you want to spend the money at retirement.

只有當你需要改變投資組合的風險時，你才需要積極行動起來，只有當你想在退休後花錢時，你才需要賣出投資組合。

If you do this, if you truly buy into the mantra that less is more, it's likely that you're gonna end up way ahead of the vast majority of other investors.

如果你能做到這一點，如果你真正信奉 "少即是多 "的口號，那麼你很可能會遠遠領先於其他絕大多數投資者。

So let's say that you've seen the light, you've looked at your current portfolio, at the random collection of funds and stocks that you've accumulated over the years, and in a moment of honesty, you realise that there is no real strategy behind any of it.

讓我們假設你已經看到了曙光，你審視了自己目前的投資組合，審視了自己多年來積累的基金和股票的隨機組合，在誠實的一刻，你意識到這些組合背後並沒有真正的策略。

And you've decided that you want to simplify.

你決定要簡化。

But when it actually comes to pushing the button and selling our existing holdings, we find it very difficult to do, especially if those holdings are at a loss.

但是，當我們真的要按下按鈕出售現有持股時，我們會發現很難做到，尤其是當這些持股處於虧損狀態時。

And the bigger the loss, the harder it is to sell.

損失越大，就越難出售。

Perhaps you know what I'm talking about because you're sitting on one of these positions right now.

也許你知道我在說什麼，因為你現在就坐在這些位置上。

Or if you don't, put yourselves in the shoes of someone that invested at this point.

如果你們不知道，也請設身處地為此時已投資的人想想。

How would you feel about selling this when it's down 50%?

當它下跌 50%時，你打算怎麼賣？

It just doesn't feel right selling something that's down that much.

把跌了這麼多的東西賣掉，感覺不太合適。

And you'll keep telling yourself that you should wait for it to come back, at least until you get even.

你會不停地告訴自己，你應該等它回來，至少在你得到補償之前。

What's interesting is that you can see a similar pattern of behaviour with people playing roulette in the casino.

有趣的是，在賭場玩輪盤賭的人也有類似的行為模式。

At the start of the night, when they have all their chips, they bet very conservatively, trying as hard as they can not to lose money.

晚上剛開始時，當他們擁有所有籌碼時，他們下注非常保守，儘量不讓自己輸錢。

But by the end of the night, if they're down big, they end up making very high-risk bets in an attempt to win back their money.

但到了晚上，如果他們輸得很慘，他們就會進行非常高風險的下注，試圖把錢贏回來。

In these situations, we lie to ourselves that this is rational behaviour, that we need to stick to our guns and win back our money.

在這種情況下，我們會騙自己說，這是理性的行為，我們需要堅持到底，贏回我們的錢。

But it's not rational, whether it's in the casino or with investing.

但無論是在賭場還是在投資中，這都是不理性的。

Our emotional monkey brains are lying to us.

我們的情感猴腦在欺騙我們。

And the hardest thing is that we want it to be true.

最困難的是，我們希望它是真的。

As Philip Fisher, a famous American investor and author once said, more money has probably been lost by investors holding onto a stock they really didn't want until they can at least come out even than from any other single reason.

正如美國著名投資家和作家菲利普-費舍爾曾經說過的那樣，投資者持有一隻他們並不想要的股票，直到他們至少能夠平倉為止，由此損失的錢可能比任何其他單一原因造成的損失都要多。

There's a trick that I like to use with clients to help them cut through their emotions and to think rationally.

我喜歡用一個小竅門來幫助客戶理清情緒，進行理性思考。

If you're currently holding onto a stock or a fund that is down big,

如果您目前持有的股票或基金跌幅較大、

I want you to think about that holding.

我想讓你考慮一下這個問題。

If you're lucky enough not to be in this position, again, imagine that you bought into this fund right at its peak.

如果你很幸運沒有處於這種情況，那麼請再想象一下，你是在這隻基金的最高點買入的。

Let's say you invested 20,000 pounds and it's now worth 10.

假設您投資了 20,000 英鎊，現在價值 10 英鎊。

How would you feel about selling that position?

你對出售這一職位有何看法？

Well, imagine if you woke up tomorrow and you found that that holding had been replaced by 10,000 pounds of cash.

想象一下，如果你明天醒來，發現持有的東西已經換成了 1 萬英鎊的現金。

So now you're starting from a complete fresh slate.

所以，現在你要從全新的起點開始。

What would you now choose to invest that money in?

你現在會選擇把這筆錢投資在什麼地方？

Would you choose to invest that money right back into the same thing?

你會選擇將這筆錢再投資到同樣的事情上嗎？

For the vast majority of people, the answer is absolutely not.

對於絕大多數人來說，答案是絕對不可能。

They would much rather invest that money into something else.

他們更願意把這些錢投資到其他方面。

And if that's the case, well, you know what you should be doing.

如果是這樣的話，你就知道自己該做什麼了。

If you're thinking rationally, whether one of your holdings is up or down since you specifically bought it should have no bearing on your decision to keep holding it.

如果你理性思考，你所持有的某項資產在你明確買入後是上漲還是下跌，應該不會影響你繼續持有它的決定。

That is why it helps to frame these decisions as if you are already holding cash.

這就是為什麼把這些決定當作您已經持有現金來做會有幫助的原因。

So if you recognise that there's something else you should be moving to, do it as soon as you can.

是以，如果你意識到自己應該轉到其他地方，就儘快去做。

Last week, I found myself in a similar situation with one of my clients.

上週，我發現我的一位客戶也遇到了類似的情況。

Let's call him Zach.

就叫他扎克吧

Zach used to work for a large public company and over the years, he was granted a lot of company stock.

扎克曾在一家大型上市公司工作，多年來，他獲得了很多公司股票。

Even though he left the company several years ago, he's continued to hold that stock.

儘管他幾年前就離開了公司，但他一直持有這隻股票。

And as of last week, his holding equated to 40% of his liquid net worth.

截至上週，他持有的股票相當於其流動淨資產的 40%。

I explained to Zach why this is an extremely risky position to be in, especially as he's only a few years from retirement and why he should really be investing into a highly diversified, lower risk portfolio.

我向扎克解釋了為什麼這樣做風險極大，尤其是他還有幾年就退休了，為什麼他應該投資於高度分散、風險較低的投資組合。

He understood the rationale behind this and he agreed that this was the correct thing to do.

他理解這樣做的理由，並同意這樣做是正確的。

But later on in the meeting, when it came to agreeing on a timescale to sell his stock, he said,

但後來在會議上，當談到就出售股票的時間表達成一致時，他說、

James, I recognise that this is the correct direction of travel, but what I don't wanna do is sell my shares on the cheap.

詹姆斯，我知道這是正確的方向，但我不想做的是賤賣我的股票。

Given his holding and the fact that he used to hold a very senior position at the company,

考慮到他的持股情況，以及他曾在公司擔任非常高級的職位這一事實、

Zach had been keeping close tabs on this company.

扎克一直在密切關注這家公司。

He said that recently it's turned a corner and is going from strength to strength with analysts expecting its revenues to grow significantly over the next year.

他說，最近該公司的發展出現了轉機，實力不斷增強，分析師預計明年的收入將大幅增長。

Zach thinks that this is a great company and he doesn't want to sell and leave all of this potential upside on the table, which brings us to our third lie, that great companies make great investments.

扎克認為，這是一家偉大的公司，他不想賣掉，也不想把所有潛在的上升空間都留在桌面上，這就引出了我們的第三個謊言，即偉大的公司就是偉大的投資。

You've probably heard this saying before, that investing is all about finding great companies and holding them for the longterm.

你可能聽過這樣一句話：投資就是要找到優秀的公司並長期持有。

But that's pretty obvious, right?

但這很明顯，不是嗎？

I mean, who would want to invest in a bad company?

我是說，誰會願意投資一家糟糕的公司呢？

Well, as an example, in March, FedEx released results that said that its sales were down 2% over the last year, marking six consecutive quarters of sales declines, not good.

舉個例子，聯邦快遞 3 月份發佈的財報顯示，其銷售額比去年下降了 2%，連續 6 個季度銷售額下降，情況不容樂觀。

Whilst on the same day, Lululemon, the activewear company, released results that its sales had grown 16% in Q4 last year and issued guidance that they expected growth of 12% in 2024.

就在同一天，運動服裝公司 Lululemon 發佈了去年第四季度銷售額增長 16% 的業績，併發布了 2024 年預計增長 12% 的指導意見。

So what do you think happened to their stock prices when this news was released?

那麼，當這一消息發佈後，你認為它們的股價會發生什麼變化呢？

Lululemon was down nearly 16% and FedEx was up 7.4.

Lululemon 下跌近 16%，聯邦快遞上漲 7.4%。

That's probably not what you're expecting.

這可能不是你所期望的。

So why is this happening?

那麼，為什麼會出現這種情況呢？

It was common knowledge that Lululemon had been doing well up until this point, growing its revenue year after year, and it was expected that this growth would continue.

眾所周知，在此之前，Lululemon 的經營狀況一直很好，收入逐年增長，而且這種增長有望持續下去。

By Zach's definition, this is a great company, but if everybody already knows it's a great company that is poised to do well, then those expectations should already be baked into the current stock price.

按照扎克的定義，這是一家偉大的公司，但如果大家都知道這是一家有望取得良好業績的偉大公司，那麼這些預期就應該已經體現在當前的股價中了。

And given that the share price has fallen on these results, this tells us that the market was expecting Lululemon to do even better than it did.

鑑於這些結果導致股價下跌，這告訴我們，市場對 Lululemon 的預期比它做得更好。

Whereas for FedEx, these results were better than what the market was expecting.

而聯邦快遞的業績則好於市場預期。

I hear this kind of thing all the time when people talk about companies like Apple or Microsoft, people saying that they are great companies, and maybe they are, but that does not mean that they're great investments.

當人們談論蘋果或微軟等公司時，我經常聽到這樣的話，人們說它們是偉大的公司，也許它們確實是，但這並不意味著它們是偉大的投資。

It all depends on the price you pay for it and whether you think they're going to beat the potentially high expectations that are already baked into that price.

這完全取決於你為此付出的代價，以及你是否認為他們會超越你對他們的高期望值。

Investment researcher, Michael Malbuysant, has written extensively on this subject, and he said, perhaps the single greatest error in the investment business is the failure to distinguish between the knowledge of a company's fundamentals, so how well you think it's going to do, and the expectations implied by the market price.

投資研究員邁克爾-馬爾布伊桑特（Michael Malbuysant）曾就這一主題撰寫了大量文章，他說，投資業務中最大的一個錯誤可能就是沒有區分對公司基本面的瞭解（即你認為公司會做得有多好，以及市場價格所隱含的預期）。

I explained this to Zach and he said, okay, I see your point.