From the BBC World Service, this is The Global Story.

這裡是 BBC 世界廣播公司的《全球故事》。

This week, economic warfare broke out between the world's two biggest superpowers.

本週，世界上最大的兩個超級大國之間爆發了經濟戰爭。

President Trump announced a new tariff, essentially a tax, on Chinese goods coming into the US.

特朗普總統宣佈對進入美國的中國商品徵收新的關稅，實質上是一種稅收。

And now, Beijing has hit back.

而現在，北京已經做出了回擊。

So can anyone really win a trade war?

那麼，真的有人能贏得貿易戰嗎？

And what will the impact be on the rest of the world?

對世界其他地區會產生什麼影響？

With me today is Ritika Gupta, who is our North America business correspondent joining us from New York, and the BBC World Service Asia Pacific editor, Michael Bristow.

今天和我在一起的是 Ritika Gupta，她是我們從紐約來的北美商業記者，還有 BBC 世界廣播公司亞太地區編輯 Michael Bristow。

Well, if there's one thing we know about Donald Trump, it's that he loves tariffs.

如果說我們對唐納德-特朗普有什麼瞭解的話，那就是他喜歡關稅。

The word tariff, properly used, is a beautiful word.

關稅一詞使用得當，是一個美麗的詞。

One of the most beautiful words I've ever heard.

這是我聽過的最動聽的話之一。

It's music to my ears.

我聽得如痴如醉。

I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary.

我常說，關稅對我來說是字典裡最美的詞。

They are at the heart of his economic plan for the United States.

它們是他為美國製定的經濟計劃的核心。

During his first term, and also throughout the presidential campaign, he was very clear.

在他的第一個任期內，以及在整個總統競選期間，他的態度非常明確。

He thinks tariffs are going to help make America and American people richer.

他認為關稅會讓美國和美國人民變得更富有。

And he also thinks that they're a useful tool in helping to get other countries to do exactly what he wants.

他還認為，這些都是幫助其他國家按他的意願行事的有用工具。

Before we go any further, though, I think, Ritika, we need to cover some basics.

不過，在進一步討論之前，我想，麗蒂卡，我們需要先了解一些基本知識。

Like, what exactly is a tariff?

比如，關稅到底是什麼？

You see, a tariff is a tax on imported goods from foreign countries.

你看，關稅就是對從外國進口的商品徵稅。

So Trump had proposed a 25% tax on Canada and Mexico, which have now been paused.

是以，特朗普曾提議對加拿大和墨西哥徵收 25% 的稅，現在已經暫停。

But as an example, say you had a product that was worth $4, that would result in a $1 additional charge.

但舉個例子，如果您有一個價值 4 美元的產品，那就需要額外收費 1 美元。

So the total product costing some $5 or so.

是以，總產品成本約為 5 美元左右。

President Trump repeatedly says that a tariff is a tax on a foreign country.

特朗普總統一再表示，關稅就是對外國徵稅。

He said that time and time again.

他一次又一次地這樣說。

Is that true?

這是真的嗎？

No, it's not necessarily the country that pays for the tariff.

不，支付關稅的不一定是國家。

It's the importing business that typically pays that extra charge.

支付額外費用的通常是進口企業。

However, many economists have warned that these costs will be passed on to the American consumer because your businesses, your Walmarts, your targets, for instance, may be facing margin pressure.

然而，許多經濟學家警告說，這些成本將轉嫁給美國消費者，因為你們的企業、你們的沃爾瑪、你們的目標公司等可能面臨利潤壓力。

So ultimately, it'll be the consumer that pays.

是以，最終將由消費者買單。

And that shows up again on their receipts when they go into their big box chain stores.

而當他們走進大賣場連鎖店時，這些又會出現在他們的收據上。

So although there's been a lot of talk about the negative impacts of tariffs, for the Trump administration, there has been one big success already this week.

是以，儘管關於關稅負面影響的討論不絕於耳，但對特朗普政府來說，本週已經取得了一項重大成功。

When Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he said it was largely because of concerns about border security.

當唐納德-特朗普威脅要對加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅時，他說這主要是出於對邊境安全的擔憂。

Now, both Mexico and Canada have made big commitments to increase security at their borders.

現在，墨西哥和加拿大都做出了加強邊境安全的重大承諾。

So, Ritika, can this be seen as a big win for the use of tariffs?

那麼，Ritika，這是否可以看作是使用關稅的一大勝利？

In some ways, Lucy, it's worked.

在某些方面，露西，這很有效。

He showed in some ways the kind of the art of negotiating a deal because, as you say, Canada and Mexico did cede to Trump's demands when it came to adding extra border security.

他在某種程度上展示了談判的藝術，因為正如你所說，加拿大和墨西哥在增加額外邊境安全方面確實向特朗普的要求讓步了。

But there's also the U.S. trading off, too, in some ways.

但在某些方面，美國也在做著交易。

And many experts have said that you didn't need necessarily the threat of tariffs to get some of those things done.

許多專家說，不一定非要通過關稅威脅才能完成其中的一些任務。

And it also does cause concern and uncertainty about tit for tat and the escalation of a global trade war as well.

這也確實引起了人們對以牙還牙和全球貿易戰升級的擔憂和不確定性。

And that's what many experts and economists have been warning are the dangers of this.

而這正是許多專家和經濟學家一直警告的危險所在。

The biggest target of Trump's tariffs so far, though, has been China.

不過，迄今為止，特朗普關稅的最大目標是中國。

And economists are worried that we could be on the brink now of a real trade war between China and the U.S.

經濟學家們擔心，我們現在可能正處於中美之間真正貿易戰的邊緣。

This isn't a new war, though, because President Trump began this economic war with China during his first term when he was in office.

不過，這並不是一場新的戰爭，因為特朗普總統在他的第一個任期內就開始了這場與中國的經濟戰爭。

Mickey, why does Donald Trump see China as such an economic threat?

米奇，唐納德-特朗普為何將中國視為經濟威脅？

Yeah, it's a really good question.

是啊，這真是個好問題。

And it's not necessarily obvious why China should be an economic threat.

至於中國為何會成為經濟威脅，這一點並不明顯。

I think first and foremost, it's just a very, very big economy, which does a lot of trade with the United States.

我認為首先，它只是一個非常非常大的經濟體，與美國有很多貿易往來。

We're talking about half a trillion dollars.

我們說的是 50 萬億美元。

Also, the United States is in deficit in that trade with China.

此外，美國在與中國的貿易中處於逆差狀態。

So essentially, the United States imports far more goods, hundreds of billions more goods than it exports to China.

是以，從根本上說，美國進口的商品遠遠多於出口到中國的商品，多出數千億美元。

So I think President Trump, what he does is he sees that he saw that big deficit.

是以，我認為特朗普總統的做法是，他看到了巨大的赤字。

He wants to do something about it.

他想為此做點什麼。

It appears as though China's winning and the United States is losing.

似乎中國贏了，美國輸了。

Also, in his first term in office, there were some very specific things which President Trump complained about China for, which previous American officials have complained before, specifically stealing intellectual property, forcing American companies to transfer technology to Chinese firms if they wanted to set up operations in China.

此外，在特朗普總統的第一個任期內，他曾抱怨過中國的一些非常具體的事情，以前的美國官員也曾抱怨過，特別是竊取知識產權，強迫美國公司向中國公司轉讓技術，如果他們想在中國開展業務的話。

They could only do it, say, with a joint venture.

比如說，他們只能通過合資企業來實現這一目標。

They had to transfer their technology.

他們必須轉讓技術。

Also, he accused China of currency manipulation, essentially keeping the currency at a particular level to make those exports cheaper.

此外，他還指責中國操縱貨幣，實質上是將貨幣保持在某一特定水準，以使這些出口商品更加便宜。

Mickey, China has always said it doesn't want a trade war with the US.

米奇，中國一直說不希望與美國打貿易戰。

And then we also, back in 2017, I remember Donald Trump speaking at the World Economic Forum.

我們還記得，早在 2017 年，唐納德-特朗普就在世界經濟論壇上發表過演講。

He said, we don't want to start a trade war with China.

他說，我們不想與中國打貿易戰。

But we did then see China responding with tariffs of its own in the kind of tit for tat way.

但隨後我們確實看到中國以牙還牙，以自己的關稅作為迴應。

What were they?

它們是什麼？

China doesn't want a particular trade.

中國並不想要特定的貿易。

It doesn't want a trade war at all.

它根本不想打貿易戰。

The economy is based primarily on exports.

經濟主要依靠出口。

So if there's some barrier to those exports going to other countries, then it doesn't want them.

是以，如果出口到其他國家存在某種障礙，那麼它就不想要這些出口。

I had a look back at the list of reactions that China made when President Trump was in his first term in office.

我回顧了特朗普總統第一任期時中國所做的反應清單。

And there's a whole series of them, raising tariffs by 10 percent, then 10 percent again, 25 percent in some cases.

關稅提高了 10%，然後又提高了 10%，在某些情況下甚至提高了 25%。

They also reported the United States of the World Trade Organization.

他們還報告了世界貿易組織中的美國。

They stopped buying some products, agricultural products, particularly outright, which really affected farmers in America.

他們停止購買一些產品，尤其是農產品，這對美國農民造成了真正的影響。

So a range of tools which China used, which incidentally is the kind of tools which it's already using now with these latest tariffs imposed by President Trump.

是以，中國使用了一系列工具，順便說一句，特朗普總統最近徵收的這些關稅也是中國正在使用的工具。

Similar kind of tools, not just tariffs, but also non-tariff measures to try and harm the American economy.

類似的手段不僅有關稅，還有非關稅措施，試圖損害美國經濟。

Now, although this trade war has been simmering for several years, it really is hotting up now that Donald Trump has returned to the White House.

現在，儘管這場貿易戰已經醞釀了數年之久，但由於唐納德-特朗普重返白宮，貿易戰真正進入了白熱化階段。

Ritika, can I ask you a bit more about these latest tariffs Donald Trump has introduced?

Ritika，我能問你一些關於唐納德-特朗普最新推出的關稅的問題嗎？

What are the new tariffs on Chinese goods that he's introduced this week?

他本週對中國商品徵收的新關稅是什麼？

So some of the biggest tariffs are going to be on electronics, toys and appliances.

是以，一些最大的關稅將針對電子產品、玩具和電器。

Consumer electronics being one of the top goods imported from China to the U.S.

電子消費品是從中國進口到美國的最主要商品之一。

If you look at data, that includes cell phones, TVs, laptops, game consoles.

從數據上看，這包括手機、電視、筆記本電腦和遊戲機。

China is also a major supplier of home appliances as well.

中國也是家電產品的主要供應國。

And also footwear.

還有鞋類。

You see a lot of footwear products also being imported into the U.S. from China.

你會看到很多鞋類產品也從中國進口到美國。

And what new tariffs, Ritika, have China announced in return?

作為回報，中國又宣佈了哪些新的關稅措施呢？

The tariffs from China are actually rather minimal.

來自中國的關稅實際上微乎其微。

They're seen as not such an aggressive approach as 10 to 15 percent levies on selected goods.

在人們看來，這並不像對特定商品徵收 10%至 15%的稅那麼激進。

So part of China's countermeasures include an import taxes on U.S. coal and LNG.

是以，中國的部分反制措施包括對美國煤炭和液化天然氣徵收進口稅。

That's 10 percent and a 15 percent charge on crude oil.

即原油收費 10%和 15%。

And as well as fuel, China has also slapped a 10 percent tariff on agricultural machinery, pickup trucks and some large cars.

除燃料外，中國還對農業機械、皮卡和一些大型汽車徵收 10% 的關稅。

And they've also announced some non-tariff measures as well.

他們還宣佈了一些非關稅措施。

One of which is a probe into Google and an anti-monopoly investigation into that tech giant.

其中之一就是對谷歌的調查和對這家科技巨頭的反壟斷調查。

And, Mikki, is there any indications yet as to how these U.S. tariffs are going to affect the Chinese economy?

米基，是否有跡象表明美國的這些關稅將對中國經濟產生什麼影響？

Just at the moment, when the Chinese authorities need their economy, need people to be spending more money, it's going to hit those manufacturers that sell to the United States.

就在此時此刻，當中國政府需要他們的經濟，需要人們花更多的錢時，這將打擊那些銷往美國的製造商。

So it's definitely an unwelcome thing when it comes to China.

是以，說到中國，這絕對是一件不受歡迎的事情。

But because they've been through this before, because Trump did this to them in his last term, are they better prepared in a way?

但是，因為他們以前經歷過這種情況，因為特朗普在上屆任期中對他們做了這種事，他們是否在某種程度上準備得更好了呢？

Have they got a strategy of how to deal with it?

他們有應對策略嗎？

Decoupling from the U.S., but diversifying their markets as well.

與美國脫鉤，但也要實現市場多元化。

I don't think decoupling is remotely possible.

我認為脫鉤根本不可能。

We're talking about trade, hundreds of billions of two way trade between these two countries every year.

我們談論的是貿易，是兩國之間每年數千億的雙向貿易。

There has been some attempts by America, particularly President Biden, to try and not sell certain technology products, high end technology products to China.

美國，特別是拜登總統，曾試圖不向中國出售某些技術產品，高端技術產品。

But the two economies are so integrated that decoupling is is really impossible.

但是，這兩個經濟體已經融為一體，脫鉤實際上是不可能的。

In fact, under the Biden administration later on, officials stopped talking about decoupling and started using other words to suggest they're just targeting, targeting specific areas of the Chinese economy.

事實上，在拜登政府的上司下，官員們後來不再談論脫鉤，而是開始使用其他字眼來暗示他們只是在瞄準，瞄準中國經濟的特定領域。

Is China more prepared?

中國準備得更充分嗎？

I think he was expecting this.

我想他早就料到了。

So before President Trump came into office, Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, the ambassador, the Chinese ambassador in Washington, all went on the charm offensive, tried to persuade President Trump before he was coming into office, just don't do this.

是以，在特朗普總統上任前，中國領導人習近平、大使、中國駐華盛頓大使都展開了魅力攻勢，試圖在特朗普總統上任前說服他，不要這樣做。

Nobody will win with a trade war.

貿易戰誰也贏不了。

We can both win if we keep tariffs out of the equation.

如果不考慮關稅問題，我們就能雙贏。

So they knew something was coming.

所以，他們知道會有事情發生。

And also to a certain extent, as you suggested there, they could prepare.

而且在某種程度上，正如你所說，他們可以做好準備。

There are many ways in which China can hurt the American economy which don't involve tariffs.

中國有很多方法可以傷害美國經濟，而不涉及關稅。

We know that Donald Trump sees tariffs as a way of rebalancing global trade and a way that he hopes that America can stay on top and remain the world's economic superpower.

我們知道，唐納德-特朗普認為關稅是重新平衡全球貿易的一種方式，也是他希望美國能夠保持領先地位、繼續成為世界經濟超級大國的一種方式。

So is he going to be successful in stopping China's economic rise?

那麼，他能否成功阻止中國的經濟崛起？

Mickey, China is selling goods, as you've mentioned, everywhere, not just to the US.

米奇，正如你提到的，中國的商品銷往世界各地，而不僅僅是美國。

It has been the main driver of growth in the past few decades.

在過去幾十年中，它一直是經濟增長的主要動力。

Surely there must be really deep concern now in China about these tariffs and that more could be coming.

當然，中國現在肯定對這些關稅深感憂慮，而且可能還會有更多的關稅。

This could just be the start.

這可能只是一個開始。

I mean, of course there is.

我是說，當然有。

I mean, the Chinese economy really isn't doing awfully well.

我的意思是，中國經濟確實不太好。

It needs it needs impetus.

它需要動力。

It needs a boost from somewhere.

它需要來自某處的推動力。

But to a certain extent, there's not a lot the Chinese can do about President Trump if he decides to use tariffs.

但在某種程度上，如果特朗普總統決定徵收關稅，中方也無能為力。

And you've already touched on it, that tariffs are sometimes used again, used in ways which are for non-economic reasons.

你已經提到了這一點，即關稅有時會被再次使用，使用的方式是出於非經濟原因。

We talked about Mexico and Canada sending reinforcements to their borders to stop illegal immigrants and illegal drugs from getting over that border.

我們談到墨西哥和加拿大向其邊境派遣了增援部隊，以阻止非法移民和非法毒品越過邊境。

So really he's using economics to solve political problems.

所以，他其實是在用經濟學來解決政治問題。

Perhaps President Trump has mentioned this previously.

也許特朗普總統以前曾提到過這一點。

China can help with the war in Ukraine because it has influence with Russia.

中國可以在烏克蘭戰爭中提供幫助，因為中國對俄羅斯有影響力。

China's trade with Russia has really just gone through the roof since Russia invaded Ukraine.

自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，中國與俄羅斯的貿易額急劇上升。

Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of trade between those two countries.

兩國之間的貿易額高達數千億美元。

So perhaps President Trump could persuade China to use its influence of Russia over the war in Ukraine in return for dropping tariffs.

是以，特朗普總統或許可以說服中國利用其在烏克蘭戰爭中對俄羅斯的影響力來換取關稅的下降。

So that's politics being changed through economic means again.

所以，這又是通過經濟手段改變政治。

Everyone talks about President Trump being very transactional and he likes a deal.

每個人都在談論特朗普總統非常注重交易，他喜歡交易。

What's Xi Jinping like if the two of them are on a call?

如果兩人通話，習近平會是什麼樣子？

Well, in some respects, quite similar.

嗯，在某些方面是很相似的。

I think China doesn't always say out loud what its policy is, what its foreign policy is, what it's trying to do.

我認為，中國並不總是大聲說出自己的政策、外交政策和努力方向。

In fact, very rarely does it say.

事實上，很少有這樣的說法。

But I think if there is an overarching philosophy when it comes to China and Xi Jinping and the Communist Party in general, it's trade with the rest of the world.

但我認為，如果說中國、習近平和整個共產黨有一個總的理念，那就是與世界其他國家的貿易。

Trade has made us rich.

貿易讓我們致富。

Trade will make you rich as well if you trade with us.

如果您與我們進行貿易，我們也會讓您致富。

So in that respect, it is transactional.

是以，在這方面，它是交易性的。

We benefit.

我們受益匪淺。

You benefit.

您將從中受益。

Win-win is a constant refrain from Chinese officials.

雙贏是中國官員經常掛在嘴邊的一句話。

Trade is, as the Chinese see it, and most economists, most traditional economists would agree with the Chinese, it benefits both sides.

在中國人看來，貿易是對雙方都有利的，大多數經濟學家，大多數傳統經濟學家都會同意中國人的觀點。

I trade with you.

我和你交易。

You win.

你贏了

I win.

我贏了

Ritika, one of the things that economists say about tariffs all the time is that it creates price rises that ultimately end up being bad for consumers.

Ritika，經濟學家們一直在談論關稅，其中一點就是關稅會造成價格上漲，最終對消費者不利。

Do you think that these new tariffs and the potential of a tariffs war with China could really impact consumers in America?

您認為這些新關稅以及與中國的潛在關稅戰會真正影響美國消費者嗎？

That is something that economists warn of, is that ultimately the consumer pays the price for these higher tariffs.

經濟學家警告說，消費者最終將為這些高關稅付出代價。

Even if the companies initially pay for the tariff, there's a lot of pressure on margins for companies as their costs rise and ultimately the consumer ends up paying.

即使企業最初支付了關稅，但隨著成本上升，企業的利潤也會受到很大壓力，最終還是要由消費者來買單。

So there is a likelihood that is what economists have been warning.

是以，這很有可能就是經濟學家們所警告的。

And it is also seen as counterproductive in some ways to one of the key objectives that President Donald Trump had, which was to keep the cost of living for Americans low.

這在某種程度上也被視為與唐納德-特朗普總統的主要目標之一--保持美國人較低的生活成本--背道而馳。

And then there's also the issues of the monetary policy side and what it means for the Federal Reserve.

還有貨幣政策方面的問題，以及這對美聯儲意味著什麼。

If inflation rises, then it means that their interest rate policy would be impacted, whether they have to lift rates and how that could impact the economy and economic growth.

如果通脹率上升，那麼就意味著他們的利率政策會受到影響，他們是否必須提高利率，以及這會對經濟和經濟增長產生怎樣的影響。

Ultimately, Mickey, we've got President Trump and Xi Jinping on the phone together.

最後，米奇，特朗普總統和習近平正在通話。

Do you think that Xi Jinping will bend it or will give in to Donald Trump?

您認為習近平會屈服於唐納德-特朗普嗎？

They will give something.

他們會有所付出。

Definitely China will give something because of all the reasons I explained before, the export economy is vital for the Chinese economy as a whole.

中國肯定會有所作為，因為我前面已經解釋過，出口經濟對整個中國經濟至關重要。

They will not want that disrupted, particularly to one of their biggest markets.

他們不希望這一點受到干擾，尤其是對他們最大的市場之一。

And if you look back at what China did previously in the first Trump presidency, they did make concessions.

如果你回顧一下中國在特朗普第一任總統任期內的所作所為，他們確實做出了讓步。

Some kind of deal was enacted in the end.

最後還是達成了某種協議。

Now, you could argue whether China didn't renege on those terms of that deal, it might well have done.

現在，你可以爭辯中國是否沒有背棄協議中的這些條款，它很可能已經背棄了。

That's certainly what President Trump would argue.

特朗普總統肯定會這麼說。

But China is just as determined when it comes to politics.

但在政治方面，中國的決心同樣堅定。

And it, too, I think, would be prepared not to go to the whole hog to appease President Trump.

我認為，它也會做好準備，不會為了安撫特朗普總統而大動干戈。

They have got their red lines.

他們有自己的紅線。

And I think they've got some really good measures or some measures which could potentially hurt America in a way that President Trump wouldn't want.

我認為他們已經採取了一些非常好的措施，或者一些有可能以特朗普總統不希望的方式傷害美國的措施。

And they're in it for the long haul.

而且他們會長期堅持下去。

They don't have a limited time frame.

他們沒有時間限制。

They've got a longer time frame.

他們的時間更長。

So I think they will give some ground, but not as much as President Trump would want.