But this year, things are looking a little different.

但今年的情況有些不同。

Retailers are set to add about 520,000 seasonal jobs this year.

零售商今年將增加約 52 萬個季節性工作崗位。

That's down from last year's 564,000 jobs as online shopping continues to reshape the holiday workforce.

這一數字低於去年的 564,000 個工作崗位，因為網上購物繼續重塑假日勞動力。

In fact, 76 percent of American shoppers plan to do half of their holiday shopping online.

事實上，76% 的美國購物者計劃在假期進行一半的網上購物。

Over time, we're going to see e-commerce take a greater share of overall sales.

隨著時間的推移，我們將看到電子商務在整個銷售額中佔據更大的份額。

It's something that's been steadily growing.

它一直在穩步增長。

The retail sector is expected to shrink by 0.2 percent annually over the next decade as e-commerce takes a bigger bite out of in-store sales.

隨著電子商務對店內銷售的衝擊越來越大，預計未來十年零售業每年將萎縮 0.2%。

All retailers are leaning into e-commerce because they have realized that you need to just be where the consumer is and the consumer is in a lot of different places.

所有零售商都在向電子商務傾斜，因為他們已經意識到，你只需要在消費者所在的地方，而消費者在很多不同的地方。

For every e-commerce fulfillment center built, nearly a thousand local jobs are lost each quarter.

每建立一個電子商務履行中心，每個季度就會有近千個在地工作崗位流失。

Still, online shopping is expected to create a 0.6 percent job boost in the next decade.

不過，預計在未來十年內，網上購物將創造 0.6% 的就業機會。

What that means is that there's just going to be less jobs for in-store work, but it doesn't mean that there will be less jobs overall.

這意味著店內工作的崗位會減少，但並不意味著整體工作崗位會減少。

So instead of being able to run a cashier, you're going to need to know how to work a logistics center or work in a distribution center, how to load packages onto a truck or onto pallets and things like that.

是以，你需要知道如何在物流中心或配送中心工作，如何將包裹裝上卡車或托盤等，而不是能夠管理收銀員。

Unsurprisingly, Amazon and UPS are leading the holiday hiring surge with 250,000 and 125,000 respective seasonal job openings this year.

不出所料，亞馬遜和 UPS 今年的季節性職位空缺分別為 25 萬和 12.5 萬個，引領了假日招聘潮。

The focus isn't on stocking shelves as much as it is fulfilling and delivering online orders to customers.

我們的工作重點並不在於貨架上的存貨，而在於完成和向客戶交付在線訂單。

Will e-commerce continue to disrupt retail jobs or is its impact overstated?

電子商務將繼續顛覆零售業的工作，還是其影響被誇大了？

Going back to the very early days of e-commerce, the original list of winners would be Amazon and eBay.

追溯到電子商務發展的初期，最初的贏家應該是亞馬遜和 eBay。

Initial losers in the late 90s, early 2000s were Sears, Kmart, Borders, Circuit City, a lot of companies that were disrupted by Amazon.

上世紀 90 年代末、21 世紀初的最初輸家是西爾斯、凱馬特、博德斯、電路城，很多公司都被亞馬遜顛覆了。

Amazon continues to be a disruptor of big box retail and is causing competitors to continue to shift and adapt business needs to compete.

亞馬遜繼續成為大賣場零售業的顛覆者，並導致競爭對手不斷轉變和調整業務需求，以應對競爭。

You see Walmart and Target leaning really heavily into e-commerce specifically, and you also see how their seasonal hiring patterns have changed to include supply chain roles, not just cashiers and people who are in-store.

你會看到沃爾瑪和塔吉特非常重視電子商務，你也會看到它們的季節性招聘模式發生了變化，包括供應鏈崗位，而不僅僅是收銀員和店員。

Walmart skipped holiday hires this year, opting instead for year-round hiring, while Target added 100,000 seasonal roles.

沃爾瑪今年沒有在節假日招聘，而是選擇了全年招聘，而塔吉特則增加了 10 萬個季節性職位。

Walmart historically has been the king of fulfillment centers, managing their fulfillment centers to get consumers items.

沃爾瑪歷來是履約中心之王，它管理著自己的履約中心，為消費者提供商品。

Walmart is also ramping up automation with five new distribution centers across the country, part of its push to boost e-commerce efficiency.

沃爾瑪還在全國各地新建了五個配送中心，以提高自動化程度，這也是其提高電子商務效率的舉措之一。

There's a big demand for people who work in the warehouses.

對倉庫工作人員的需求很大。

From 2007 to 2023, the number of warehouses soared in the U.S. from 14,000 to 22,000.

從 2007 年到 2023 年，美國的倉庫數量從 1.4 萬個激增到 2.2 萬個。

During the opening weekend of the holiday season, stretching from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, the big winner was e-commerce, bringing in $41.1 billion in online sales.

從感恩節到 "網絡星期一 "的假期首週末，電子商務成為最大贏家，帶來了 411 億美元的在線銷售額。

But that meant fewer shoppers in stores.

但這意味著商店裡的購物者減少了。

Black Friday foot traffic dipped almost 2 percent.

黑色星期五的人流量下降了近 2%。

Buy now, pay later is a big driver of e-commerce sales because a lot of younger consumers are gravitating towards it because they're concerned about retail credit card debt, especially high interest retail credit card debt.

先買後付是電子商務銷售的一大驅動力，因為很多年輕消費者擔心零售信用卡債務，尤其是高息零售信用卡債務，所以他們更傾向於先買後付。

I see e-commerce really continuing, especially as the minimum wage goes up, because as the minimum wage goes up, it's harder for retailers to basically staff their brick and mortar stores.

我認為電子商務將繼續發展，尤其是隨著最低工資標準的提高，因為隨著最低工資標準的提高，零售商基本上很難為實體店配備員工。

It's more expensive for them to do that.

他們這樣做的成本更高。

U.S. holiday sales are projected to top $1 trillion this year, up 3.7 percent over 2023.

預計今年美國假日銷售額將突破 1 萬億美元，比 2023 年增長 3.7%。

However, this year's growth is lower than the higher gains of years prior.

然而，今年的增長低於前幾年的高增長。

The relative growth rate of e-commerce versus just retail, I think you're looking at more of single digit versus low single digit.

電子商務與零售業的相對增長率，我認為是個位數與低個位數之比。

And we're no longer in an environment where e-commerce is growing at a 15 percent rate or even a double digit rate year in and year out.

我們所處的環境已不再是電子商務年復一年地以 15% 甚至兩位數的速度增長。

And with online sales driving growth, e-commerce is expected to create 450,000 jobs by 2026.

隨著在線銷售的增長，預計到 2026 年，電子商務將創造 45 萬個工作崗位。

It's just a part of evolution and becoming more advanced as a society.

這只是社會進化和變得更加先進的一部分。

So our jobs will change.

是以，我們的工作將發生變化。

But brick and mortar is still always going to play a very important role in a retailer's overall strategy.

但實體店在零售商的整體戰略中仍將扮演非常重要的角色。

It's never going to be online only.

它永遠不會只在網上運行。

It's always going to be a balance of in-store versus online.

店內與線上始終是一個平衡點。

And the share of in-store and online is going to wax and wane depending upon where we are as a society, how people are shopping, which consumer segment is shopping.

店內和網上購物的份額會隨著社會的發展、人們的購物方式和消費群體的不同而變化。

The wonderful thing about the American labor market is that it's dynamic and it produces opportunities for people who want to work all kinds of jobs.

美國勞動力市場的美妙之處在於它充滿活力，為想要從事各種工作的人提供機會。