Subtitles section Play video
Hi there, I'm Catriona Perry, and this is The Global Story.
大家好,我是卡特里娜-佩裡,這裡是《全球故事》。
At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the working world went through a revolution.
在 COVID-19 大流行的高峰期,勞動世界經歷了一場革命。
Workers, particularly white-collar office workers, were ordered to work from home to stop the spread of the virus, and it seemed like a permanent change.
工人,尤其是辦公室白領,被命令在家工作,以阻止病毒傳播,這似乎是一個永久性的改變。
Hybrid working has remained incredibly popular years after the COVID lockdowns were lifted.
在 COVID 解除限制多年後,混合工作方式仍然非常流行。
But now, more and more companies are ordering employees back to work.
但現在,越來越多的公司開始命令員工返回工作崗位。
And many employers have slammed working from home as inefficient and bad for the bottom line.
許多僱主抨擊在家辦公效率低下,不利於企業發展。
So is the work-from-home revolution over now?
那麼,在家工作的革命現在結束了嗎?
Joining me from London is the BBC's employment correspondent, Zoe Conway.
英國廣播公司(BBC)就業記者佐伊-康韋(Zoe Conway)正在倫敦為您報道。
Hello.
你好
And also with me, Nick Bloom, an economist at Stanford University in the US, who has studied the effect that all of this is having on productivity.
和我在一起的還有美國斯坦福大學的經濟學家尼克-布魯姆(Nick Bloom),他研究了這一切對生產力的影響。
Hey there.
你們好
Great to have you both with us today.
很高興你們倆今天都來了。
Now, before we go any further, I just want to establish the status here.
現在,在我們進一步討論之前,我只想確定一下這裡的狀況。
Are you working from home or in the office?
您是在家工作還是在辦公室工作?
Nick, you first.
尼克,你先說
I'm actually at home, although I have to say, for me, it's eight in the morning.
其實我在家裡,不過我得說,對我來說,現在是早上八點。
So I am going in later.
所以我晚點再進去。
But right now, yes, this is this is the spare bedroom.
但現在,沒錯,這裡就是備用臥室。
But ordinarily, you're in the office full time?
但通常情況下,你會全職在辦公室工作嗎?
Well, I teach.
我是教書的。
So I teach obviously students because I'm a Stanford.
顯然,我教學生是因為我是斯坦福大學的學生。
That's definitely in person.
那肯定是本人。
Big meetings is in person.
大型會議親自參加。
But I do spend a couple of days a week on Zoom, you know, taking calls, working from home.
但我每週會花幾天時間在 Zoom 上,你知道,接聽電話,在家工作。
And what about you, Zoe?
你呢,佐伊?
I'm definitely at the BBC today.
我今天肯定會去英國廣播公司。
I like coming into the office, actually.
事實上,我喜歡來辦公室。
I work with a team of incredibly clever, interesting and funny people.
我的團隊成員都非常聰明、有趣、風趣。
And I like the camaraderie of the office.
我喜歡辦公室裡的友情。
But I travel around the UK for work quite a lot as well.
但我也經常因工作需要在英國各地出差。
So I don't really work from home.
所以,我並不真正在家工作。
OK, so we've established where you both stand on the working from home.
好了,我們已經確定了你們在在家工作問題上的立場。
I obviously I'm not working from home, can't be a presenter and work from home, unfortunately, although I did suggest it from time to time during the pandemic.
很顯然,我沒有在家工作,當不了主持人,也不能在家工作,很遺憾,儘管在大流行病期間,我確實不時提出過這樣的建議。
But before the pandemic, I was working here in the US.
但在大流行之前,我在美國工作。
And I mean, it was really very rare in this country that you would have encountered anyone really working from home.
我的意思是,在這個國家,真正在家工作的人非常罕見。
Nick, are there certain countries or certain industries that have always had this tradition of remote working or working from home?
尼克,是否有某些國家或某些行業一直有遠程辦公或在家辦公的傳統?
Yes.
是的。
So tech has always been pretty work from home friendly.
是以,科技行業一直都很適合在家工作。
So you can think of, you know, if you're on a keyboard using computers, you often don't need to be in the office.
是以,你可以想一想,如果你在鍵盤上使用電腦,你往往不需要在辦公室裡。
You know, it's also actually interesting that a lot of English speaking countries, it's not clear why, but you're right.
你知道嗎,很多英語國家的情況也很有趣,雖然不清楚原因,但你說得沒錯。
Northern Europe, you know, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand have been pretty high.
北歐,如加拿大、英國、澳洲、紐西蘭,這些國家的增長率一直很高。
We tend to see the lowest levels are in Asia.
我們發現,最低水平往往出現在亞洲。
So there are big international differences.
是以,國際差異很大。
So Asian, you know, typically back in the office pretty much full time.
所以,亞洲人,你知道的,一般都會全職回到辦公室。
But Northern Europe, US, we still see tech, some finance working from home two, three days a week.
但在北歐和美國,我們仍能看到科技人員和一些金融人員每週在家工作兩三天。
But of course, everything changed for everyone, didn't it?
當然,每個人的一切都變了,不是嗎?
In the spring of 2020, with the arrival of this thing we'd never heard of before, COVID-19 and the pandemic and how that changed everything at that time.
2020 年春天,隨著我們從未聽說過的 COVID-19 和大流行病的到來,它改變了當時的一切。
Governments rushing to announce stay at home orders, lockdowns to try and keep everyone away from each other, limit the number of infections.
政府急忙宣佈留在家中的命令,封鎖消息,試圖讓每個人都遠離彼此,限制感染人數。
It was a crucial step.
這是至關重要的一步。
We were told at the time to keep the hospitals from getting overloaded and to get everyone safe.
我們當時被告知,要防止醫院超負荷運轉,確保所有人的安全。
And suddenly employers had to adapt to a situation where their employees could not come into work.
突然之間,僱主們不得不適應員工無法上班的局面。
Zoe, tell us a little bit about that transition.
佐伊,給我們講講這種轉變吧。
Who was working from home and who wasn't?
誰在家工作,誰不在家工作?
What did it all mean for people?
這一切對人們意味著什麼?
It was the most incredible adjustment for so many of us.
對我們許多人來說,這是最不可思議的調整。
There were all these forms of technology we'd never used before, whether it's Zoom calls or team chats, that some of us are still fairly useless at using, certainly in my unit.
無論是 Zoom 通話還是團隊哈拉,我們以前從未使用過這些形式的技術。
Everyone always seems to be on mute.
每個人似乎總是在靜音。
And so it was an incredible adjustment.
是以,這是一次令人難以置信的調整。
And I think what we're seeing in many cases in the UK are people who have learnt that they can be very productive at home and that they can juggle it very successfully with, you know, perhaps raising a young family or looking after elderly relatives.
我認為,在英國的許多情況下,我們看到的是一些人已經認識到,他們可以在家裡大有作為,他們可以在養育小家庭或照顧年邁親屬的同時,非常成功地兼顧家庭。
And so there's a lot more flexibility that we're seeing.
是以,我們看到了更多的靈活性。
But I think there's still a huge amount of uncertainty here in the UK about whether we're going to see a big switch back.
但我認為,在英國,我們是否會看到一個大的轉變,仍然存在著巨大的不確定性。
Because as well as having more time with your family and your children, I mean, there are other benefits for people from working from home as well, financially, commuting time.
因為除了有更多時間陪伴家人和孩子,我的意思是,在家工作對人們還有其他好處,比如經濟上的好處,通勤時間的好處。
Tell us a bit about those.
給我們介紹一下吧。
We went to Bank Underground Station.
我們去了班克地鐵站。
Now, that is right in the heart of the city in London.
現在,它就在倫敦的市中心。
It's the sort of place where you're going to see a lot of people very smartly dressed, walking incredibly fast to get to their law firm or their bank where they work.
在這種地方,你會看到很多人衣著光鮮,走得飛快,趕往他們工作的律師事務所或銀行。
And we went on a Thursday morning and we went again on a Friday morning during rush hour.
我們是在週四上午去的,週五上午高峰時段又去了一次。
And there was a big drop in numbers.
人數大幅下降。
And the data shows that now on a Friday, if you go to Bank Underground Station, you'll see that the commuters are roughly at just just over half what they were before the pandemic.
數據顯示,現在的週五,如果你去班克地鐵站,你會發現乘客人數大概只有大流行前的一半多一點。
So a big drop.
所以降幅很大。
And on that point, I mean, individuals might save because they can make their lunch at home.
關於這一點,我的意思是,個人可能會因為可以在家做午餐而節省開支。
They're not spending on fuel for their cars, train tickets and so on.
他們不會把錢花在汽車燃料、火車票等方面。
But what's been the economic impact on businesses from this situation where people are working from home?
但是,人們在家工作的這種情況對企業的經濟影響有多大?
Well, there's two ways to look at it.
那麼,我們可以從兩個方面來看待這個問題。
Mostly for businesses, hybrid, which is when you come in, say, two, three days a week and work from home two, three days a week.
主要是針對企業的混合型工作,也就是每週來兩三天,每週在家工作兩三天。
It's actually pretty profitable.
實際上,它還挺賺錢的。
And it's why it's stuck.
這也是它被卡住的原因。
It's why if you look at the Fortune 500, so these are the largest 500 companies in the world. 80% of them are on hybrid because it makes them a lot of money.
這就是為什麼如果你看看《財富》世界 500 強,這些都是世界上最大的 500 家公司。其中 80% 都在使用混合動力,因為混合動力能讓他們賺大錢。
And why is that?
這是為什麼呢?
Well, if you look at the research, if you work from home a couple of days a week, it doesn't really seem to damage productivity.
研究表明,如果每週在家工作幾天,似乎並不會影響工作效率。
So, yes, you know, you need to be in for mentoring, for connectivity, for building culture, for innovating.
所以,是的,你知道,你需要參與指導、連接、文化建設和創新。
But by the time you're coming in three days a week, it looks like you kind of have your fill.
但是,當你一週來三天的時候,你就會覺得你已經吃飽了。
And the other two days are good for quiet time and for recharging without a commute.
而另外兩天則適合安靜地度過,也適合在沒有通勤的情況下充電。
So productivity is not affected.
是以,生產率不會受到影響。
What businesses gain is turnovers a lot lower.
企業獲得的是更低的營業額。
So in one study we published actually last year in Nature, you see quit rates fall by about a third.
是以,我們去年在《自然》雜誌上發表的一項研究顯示,戒菸率下降了約三分之一。
And, you know, you can see why, like folks are like, I really like working from home a couple of days a week.
而且,你知道,你可以理解為什麼人們會說,我非常喜歡每週在家工作幾天。
I'm less likely to change jobs.
我不太可能換工作。
And for businesses, that saves them an enormous amount of money because every person that quits, you've got to go out, you've got to reinterview, rehire.
這為企業節省了大量資金,因為每個辭職的人都需要重新面試、重新招聘。
And has that passion been replicated across the world?
這種熱情是否在全世界得到了複製?
This move from a full time working from home to that hybrid model you're talking about?
從全職在家工作到你所說的混合模式?
If you look at Southern Europe and Asia, take Tokyo.
放眼南歐和亞洲,就拿東京來說吧。
There's very little working from home going on.
在家工作的情況很少。
So Tokyo is kind of unchanged.
是以,東京的變化不大。
It's a weird world.
這是一個奇怪的世界。
You know, in 2019, these cities look similar.
要知道,在 2019 年,這些城市看起來都差不多。
Suddenly, five years later, you know, six years later, we've now seen a surge of work from home in much of Europe and the US and pretty much everyone's returned to the office in Asia.
突然間,五年後,你知道,六年後,我們在歐洲和美國的大部分地區看到了在家辦公的熱潮,而在亞洲,幾乎每個人都回到了辦公室。
And Zoe, what has that meant for how people might move between jobs now if you can potentially be working from home for a company that is no longer based in your town or in a nearby city, as may have been the case in the past when you sought employment adjacent to where you live?
佐伊,如果你有可能在家為一家不再位於你所在城市或附近城市的公司工作,這對人們現在如何在不同工作之間流動意味著什麼?
I think there has been a shift in terms of the balance of power that when you apply for a job, it has become the norm to ask for flexible working, or certainly more normalised, and to expect it.
我認為,在權力平衡方面已經發生了變化,當你申請工作時,要求彈性工作制已經成為一種常態,或者說已經變得更加正常,而且人們也期待彈性工作制。
Zoe's exactly right.
佐伊說得一點沒錯。
It's funny, talking to recruiters, they said, look, pre-pandemic, if you're recruiting folks, you tell them about the salary and obviously the role, but they're always going to ask about the perks.
有趣的是,在與招聘人員交談時,他們說,聽著,在大流行之前,如果你在招聘人員,你會告訴他們薪水和職位,但他們總是會問福利。
And, you know, there's the big two, which is pension, and is there any kind of healthcare plan?
你知道,最重要的是養老金和醫療保健計劃。
Now they said, look, it's the big three, pension, healthcare plan, and work from home.
現在他們說,聽著,這就是三大件,養老金、醫療保健計劃和在家工作。
And so, yes, it's become a critical part of recruitment.
是以,是的,它已成為招聘工作的重要組成部分。
The normal numbers that I hear from recruiters, I see in research, is 8%.
我從招聘人員那裡聽到的正常數字是 8%,我在研究中也看到了這一數字。
So folks say, look, if I can be hybrid, you know, I'll accept basically 8% less pay to be hybrid versus come in the office five days a week.
是以,人們會說,聽著,如果我能做混合型員工,你知道,我基本上可以接受少 8%的工資,來做混合型員工,而不是每週來辦公室工作五天。
So you can twist it around and say, if you're a boss and you want your folks in five days a week, you're going to have to pay people basically 8% more.
是以,你可以反過來說,如果你是一個老闆,你想讓你的員工一週工作五天,你就必須給員工多付 8%的工資。
Zoe, what are the major negatives that have been reported to you from employers?
佐伊,僱主向您報告的主要負面因素是什麼?
We went and interviewed the CEO of a record label in East London, and he set up this company himself.
我們去採訪了倫敦東區一家唱片公司的首席執行官,他自己成立了這家公司。
It's his baby, and he has a lot of young staff.
這是他的孩子,他有很多年輕的員工。
And it's interesting because he's been allowing his young workers to be at home, coming in for two days a week.
有趣的是,他一直允許他的年輕工人待在家裡,每週來兩天。
And he's now asked them to come back in for three days a week.
他現在要求他們每週回來三天。
I can't help but have this nagging feeling that sort of continual remote working has affected our bottom line.
我不禁耿耿於懷,持續的遠程工作影響了我們的底線。
It's his business, and he feels that it's the kind of industry where people should be networking, should be part of this team, not just in spirit, but physically together, sharing ideas.
這是他的事業,他認為,在這個行業裡,人們應該建立聯繫,應該成為這個團隊的一部分,不僅在精神上,而且在物質上一起分享想法。
And I think he also wonders about what effect it's having on the mental health of his young workforce to be at home too much of the time.
我想他也想知道,他的年輕員工經常待在家裡,會對他們的心理健康產生什麼影響。
I firmly believe that the music industry is all about relationships.
我堅信,音樂行業最重要的是人際關係。
And so the one single way to really, for any of us, to be able to build those kind of meaningful relationships is to do it in person.
是以,對於我們任何人來說,要想真正建立起這種有意義的關係,唯一的辦法就是親自去做。
Perhaps for him, it's a bit of a slight sense of loss of control.
也許對他來說,這是一種輕微的失控感。
He just doesn't quite know what everybody's up to, which I think he might feel is a bit of a disadvantage.
他只是不太清楚大家都在忙什麼,我想他可能覺得這有點不利。
And he found it difficult to just be communicating via video conferencing.
他發現,僅僅通過視頻會議進行交流是很困難的。
So I think there are some disadvantages that he would say.
是以,我認為他所說的缺點是存在的。
And do those arguments extend out to the point where the whole economy would benefit from everyone being back at work?
這些論點是否可以延伸到每個人重返工作崗位會使整個經濟受益?
What did you find?
你發現了什麼?
For an in-depth bit of reporting for the BBC that I've been doing in recent weeks, we spoke to Lord Stuart Rose, and he used to run two of the biggest retailers in the UK supermarkets called Marks and Spencer's and Asda.
最近幾周,我為英國廣播公司(BBC)做了一次深度報道,我們採訪了斯圖爾特-羅斯勳爵,他曾經經營著英國最大的兩家零售商超市--瑪莎百貨和阿斯達。
And he came out very strongly in favour of people coming in for most of the time.
他強烈支持人們在大部分時間裡都來這裡。
People who drive trains have to go to work.
開火車的人必須去上班。
People who work in operating theatres have to go to work.
在手術室工作的人必須上班。
People who work in service industries like retail have to go to work and others don't.
從事零售等服務行業的人必須上班,而其他人則不需要。
Well, you know, what's different?
那麼,你知道有什麼不同嗎?
They have children.
他們有孩子。
They have problems.
他們有問題。
They have issues.
他們有問題。
You deal with it.
你來處理。
And what he said to us was that he just thinks it's really bad for productivity in the UK.
他對我們說,他認為這對英國的生產力非常不利。
It's really bad for economic growth in the UK if people are spending too much time working from home.
如果人們花太多時間在家工作,這對英國的經濟增長真的很不利。
Do you want to jump in there with your stats and research?
你想帶著你的統計和研究跳進去嗎?
There's a number of folks who can only work if they're allowed to work from home.
有很多人只有在被允許在家工作的情況下才能工作。
So we've seen the data that employment of folks with a disability, people looking after young kids, folks close to retirement has been surging post-pandemic.
是以,我們看到的數據顯示,大流行後,殘障人士、照顧年幼孩子的人、臨近退休的人的就業率一直在激增。
And this is, you know, hundreds of thousands of millions of people literally who can work.
要知道,這可是成千上萬可以工作的人啊。
And if they're working, they're paying taxes, providing goods and services for the rest of us.
如果他們在工作,他們就在納稅,為我們其他人提供商品和服務。
And that's a win-win.
這就是雙贏。
So actually, I think these are typically, you know, kind of older in their career CEOs, typically men, if you look in the data, who are very against work from home.
是以,實際上,我認為這些人通常是,你知道的,在職業生涯中年齡較大的首席執行官,通常是男性,如果你看一下數據,他們非常反對在家工作。
You know, they're judging on their experience.
你知道,他們是根據自己的經驗來判斷的。
You know, that might have been right 20, 30 years ago, but in 2025, it's actually good for the economy.
要知道,這在二三十年前可能是對的,但在 2025 年,這實際上對經濟有利。
And that's interesting that there are certain jobs that can only be done in the workplace, but there are certain people who can only work if they're at home.
有趣的是,有些工作只能在工作場所完成,但有些人只能在家工作。
And it's sort of setting up a bit of a divide between workers.
這在某種程度上造成了工人之間的隔閡。
I mean, just to broaden it out a little bit, we heard Elon Musk, of course, aid to President Trump and billionaire businessman tell CNBC recently that not only did he think working from home made people less productive, he also thought it was a symbol of class division between white collar and blue collar workers, to use those terms.
我的意思是,只是把它擴大一點,我們聽到埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk),當然,他是特朗普總統的助手和億萬富翁商人,最近告訴CNBC,他不僅認為在家工作會降低人們的工作效率,他還認為這是白領和藍領工人之間階級分化的象徵,用這些詞來形容就是這樣。
Nick, what do you make of that argument?
尼克,你怎麼看這個論點?
Well, you know, Musk's views are really problematic.
要知道,馬斯克的觀點真的很有問題。
So I'll give you an example.
我給你舉個例子。
There was someone I was speaking to last week who, you know, a couple of years ago, broke their neck in an accident.
上週我和一個人哈拉,他幾年前在一次事故中摔斷了脖子。
And so he used to be, you know, a pretty senior exec.
所以他曾經是,你知道的,一個相當高級的執行官。
Poor guy is now basically disabled from the neck down.
可憐的傢伙現在基本上是頸部以下殘疾。
And he said, look, if I've got to go into work, it takes me about three hours.
他說,聽著,如果我要去上班,大概需要三個小時。
And it's like three hours.
大概要三個小時
He said, yeah, my carer has to get me up, wash me, get me dressed, take me to the car.
他說,是啊,我的護工得把我叫起來,給我洗臉,穿衣服,送我上車。
And then, you know, my dad would normally drive me into work.
然後,我爸爸通常會開車送我去上班。
He said, if I can work from home, it's about 20 minutes.
他說,如果我能在家工作,大約只需 20 分鐘。
Now, this is someone that's highly productive.
現在,這個人的工作效率很高。
If you force someone like that to come into work every day, he said, to be honest, I'll probably stop working.
他說,如果你強迫這樣的人每天來上班,說實話,我可能會停止工作。
And so the Musk view of trying to turn it into a crusade to force everyone back to the office is going to lose folks like that, people with young kids, folks close to retirement, and is a loss to all of us.
是以,馬斯克試圖把它變成一場迫使每個人都回到辦公室的十字軍東征的觀點,將會失去這樣的人,失去有年幼孩子的人,失去即將退休的人,這是我們所有人的損失。
You know, if there are more people working and paying taxes, it's less taxes for the rest of us to pay.
要知道,如果有更多的人工作並納稅,那麼我們其他人要交的稅就會減少。
Nick, why do you think this has become such a politically charged issue?
尼克,你認為這為什麼會成為一個如此具有政治色彩的問題?
I mean, it's almost a culture issue here in the US.
我的意思是,在美國,這幾乎是一個文化問題。
And obviously, as we've been talking about, it's a huge issue in the UK at the moment now as well.
顯然,正如我們一直在談論的那樣,這在英國也是一個巨大的問題。
Politics comes into everything eventually, unfortunately.
遺憾的是,政治最終會影響到一切。
And politics is coming to work from home.
政治就是在家工作。
It's pretty natural in a sense, because if you look who can and who can't work from home.
從某種意義上說,這很自然,因為如果你看看誰能在家工作,誰不能在家工作。
So think about who can work from home.
所以,想想誰能在家工作吧。
They tend to be university educated folks.
他們往往是受過大學教育的人。
They tend to be professionals, managers, they're higher earners.
他們往往是專業人士、經理,收入較高。
You know, they tend to have a certain type of politics.
你知道,他們往往有某種政治傾向。
And at the other end, who can't work from home tend to be, they're more likely to be frontline service workers.
而在另一端,不能在家工作的人往往是,他們更有可能是一線服務人員。
Maybe they left school at 16, 17, they're lower earning.
也許他們 16、17 歲就輟學了,收入較低。
Certainly US, that group tends to vote for Trump.
當然,美國的這一群體傾向於投票給特朗普。
And as a result, you know, if you're Trump or Musk, you know, your vote base is people that can't work from home.
是以,如果你是特朗普或馬斯克,你知道,你的選票基礎就是那些不能在家工作的人。
And it's appealing to then ban work from home because it appeals to the base.
禁止在家工作很有吸引力,因為它能吸引基層民眾。
You know, if you can kind of poke in the eye, the other half of the population, you know, it's a win for your space.
你知道,如果你能戳中另一半人的眼睛,你知道,這對你的空間來說就是一場勝利。
So you tend to see populist parties that tend to appeal to lower income, more kind of frontline service workers, frontline workers.
是以,你往往會看到民粹主義政黨傾向於吸引低收入、更多一線服務人員和一線工人。
They tend to be against work from home.
他們往往反對在家工作。
And if you look at parties that tend to have more university educated people that have office jobs, they tend to be more supportive of work from home.
如果你看看那些有更多受過大學教育、從事辦公室工作的人的黨派,他們往往更支持在家辦公。
And, you know, sadly, that's nothing about whether it's good or bad.
可悲的是,這與好壞無關。
It really just predicts who votes for these politicians and politicians know who their voters are and they appeal to them.
這其實只是預測誰會投票給這些政客,而政客們知道誰是他們的選民,他們就會迎合他們。
And so it's the other side of things, Zoe, really, is that some countries are actually taking steps to make remote working part of workers' rights or workers' entitlements.
是以,佐伊,事情的另一面是,一些國家實際上正在採取措施,使遠程工作成為工人權利或工人權益的一部分。
Spain has guaranteed the right to flexible arrangements.
西班牙保障了靈活安排的權利。
Last year, Ireland made it a legal right to request to work remotely.
去年,愛爾蘭將要求遠程工作作為一項合法權利。
And the UK government is including the right to work from home in an upcoming bill.
英國政府即將在一項法案中納入在家工作的權利。
So there are places where working from home, the right is being protected, aren't there?
所以,在有些地方,在家工作的權利是受到保護的,不是嗎?
That's right.
這就對了。
In the UK, the employment rights bill is going through parliament right now.
在英國,議會正在審議就業權利法案。
It's due to become law in June.
它將於 6 月成為法律。
But the critical question is how this is going to be implemented because there's something that's going to have to be worked out, a code of practice over the next year or so.
但關鍵的問題是如何實施,因為在未來一年左右的時間裡,必須要制定出一套操作規範。
And that means there's going to be yet more consultation.
這意味著還要進行更多的磋商。
And there is concern by campaigners who want to see more flexibility that business is going to lobby government hard and reduce the amount of working from home that's made possible by employers.
希望看到更多靈活性的運動人士擔心,企業會極力遊說政府,減少僱主允許在家工作的數量。
So I think it's really still up for grabs and the government is desperate to prove to business that its number one priority is economic growth.
是以,我認為這確實還有待商榷,政府急於向企業證明其首要任務是經濟增長。
So I think it's a bit unclear at the moment exactly how this legislation is going to be implemented, how it's going to work, and whether it is actually going to increase flexibility at work, whether it's really going to lead to an increase in the number of people working from home.
是以,我認為目前還不清楚這項立法將如何實施,如何運作,是否真的會提高工作的靈活性,是否真的會導致在家工作的人數增加。
Okay, so final question.
好吧,最後一個問題。
After all that we have been discussing here, what do you both think the future of work will look like?
在我們討論了這麼多之後,你們認為未來的工作會是什麼樣子?
Will hybrid work be as popular 10 years, even five years from now as it is, as we're talking today?
10 年甚至 5 年後,混合動力工作是否會像我們今天談論的那樣流行?
Nick, what's your final thought on this?
尼克,你對此有何高見?
So working from home is going to follow a Nike swoosh.
是以,在家工作就像 "耐克 "的 "嗖 "一樣。
So, you know, it dropped from 20, 21, 22.
所以,你知道,它從 20、21、22 降了下來。
It fell pretty clearly.
摔得很清楚。
It's now in the flat bit.
現在是在平坦的地方。
We can see in the data it's not really changed for the last year and a half.
我們可以從數據中看到,在過去一年半的時間裡,情況並沒有什麼變化。
Long run is up.
長跑結束。
So, you know, 2030, work from home is going to be higher than it is now.
是以,你知道,2030 年,在家工作的人將會比現在更多。
Why is that?
為什麼會這樣?
Three drivers.
三個司機
One is companies have office leases and they last typically 10, 15 years.
一是公司有辦公室租賃合同,租期一般為 10 年或 15 年。
As they expire, companies think, ooh, now's a good time to downsize.
當它們到期時,公司會想,哦,現在是縮減規模的好時機。
And we've been seeing that.
我們已經看到了這一點。
Two is younger CEOs, younger firms tend to be more remote.
二是首席執行官更年輕,年輕公司往往更偏遠。
And as current CEOs kind of age out and retire and replaced by younger folks, they're more sympathetic.
隨著現任首席執行官逐漸老去、退休,取而代之的是更年輕的人,他們會更有同情心。
And finally, actually most important is technology.
最後,其實最重要的是技術。
You know, I'm in my fifties.
你知道,我已經五十多歲了。
I grew up in the UK in the early seventies and both my parents worked for the British government, actually.
七十年代初,我在英國長大,我的父母實際上都為英國政府工作。
I remember as a kid, one of four kids, occasionally my mom or dad would have to work from home because there'd be some, you know, one of us would be sick off school or something.
我記得小時候,我是四個孩子中的一個,偶爾我的媽媽或爸爸會不得不在家工作,因為會有一些,你知道,我們中的一個會生病放學或什麼的。
And I was talking to him the other day and my mom was saying like, it was terrible.
有一天我和他哈拉,我媽媽說,這太可怕了。
You'd have to be carrying in the eighties piles of paper home.
你必須在八十年代把成堆的紙帶回家。
You could phone in to work, but it's really expensive.
你可以打電話上班,但電話費很貴。
And technology's just got ever better.
而且技術越來越先進。
So in the nineties, we had computers.
九十年代,我們有了電腦。
We then got the internet, cloud, you know, video calls, all of this stuff.
後來,我們有了互聯網、雲計算、視頻通話,所有這些東西。
If you look 2030, it's probably going to look like the Star Wars Jedi council.
如果你看一看 2030 年,它可能會像《星球大戰》中的絕地議會。
It's like holograms and amazing headsets.
這就像全息圖和神奇的耳機。
And it's just going to be easier to work remotely.
遠程工作將變得更加容易。
So what do you think, where will working from home or hybrid working be in 10 years, say from now?
那麼,您認為,10 年後,比如說從現在開始,在家辦公或混合辦公的前景如何?
I think there's a really interesting question about what do companies in this country really think about working from home?
我認為有一個非常有趣的問題,即這個國家的公司到底如何看待在家工作?
How many CEOs think like Lord Rose, but don't say so publicly.
有多少首席執行官像羅斯勳爵一樣思考,但卻沒有公開說出來。
I say that because working in the business unit here at the BBC, you hear things.
我之所以這麼說,是因為在 BBC 的業務部門工作,你會聽到一些事情。
And I've been talking to colleagues about this and they think there are probably more chief executives out there that want their workers back in more, possibly back in full time than are actually letting on.
我一直在和同事們討論這個問題,他們認為,可能有更多的首席執行官希望他們的員工能更多地重返崗位,可能是全職重返崗位,而不是真正讓他們重返崗位。
We do hear that anecdotally in the business unit.
我們確實在業務部門聽到過這樣的傳聞。
So I think there's a bit of a question there about how the chief executives of our biggest companies think about this.
是以,我認為,我們最大公司的首席執行官如何看待這個問題是個問題。
But I also think there's another question in terms of what this is going to look like in let's say five years time.
但我也認為還有一個問題,那就是五年後會是什麼樣子。
And that's just the state of the economy, the state of the labour market.
這還只是經濟狀況和勞動力市場狀況。
It's a supply and demand thing.
這是供求關係的問題。
At the moment, workers seem to have more power to demand these things.
目前,工人們似乎有更大的權力來要求這些事情。
But let's say there's an uptick in unemployment.
但假設失業率上升。
Let's say it's harder to find work.
比方說,找工作更難了。
Will that balance shift back towards employers?
這種平衡是否會重新向僱主傾斜?
And so for those employers that don't want their staff working from home, will it be easier for them to say no because there's a bigger pool of people looking for work?
那麼,對於那些不希望員工在家工作的僱主來說,是否會因為有更多的人在找工作而更容易拒絕呢?
I think those are two things we're just not really clear about at the moment.
我認為這是我們目前還不太清楚的兩件事。
Fascinating discussion.
引人入勝的討論。
Thanks to you both for being here.
感謝兩位的到來。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Thanks very much for having me.
非常感謝邀請我。
Thanks for being with us.
感謝您的參與。
If you want more episodes of The Global Story, find us wherever you get your podcasts.
如果您想收聽更多期的《全球故事》,請在您收聽播客的地方找到我們。
Every day, we do a deep dive into a single international story.
每天,我們都會深入探討一條國際新聞。
Subscribe to make sure you never miss an episode.
訂閱,確保您不會錯過任何一集。
And if you want to, do leave us a comment in the section below.
如果您願意,請在下面給我們留言。
Thanks for watching.
感謝觀看。
Bye-bye.
再見