The protesters demanded that their dictators would step down, they wanted higher standards of living, less corruption, and democratic institutions.

抗議者要求獨裁者下臺，他們希望提高生活水準，減少腐敗，建立民主體制。

But did this massive wave of revolt pay off in the end?

但是，這場聲勢浩大的反抗浪潮最終是否得到了回報？

This is the Arab Spring with Hindsight.

這就是 "阿拉伯之春 "的 "後見之明"。

In the early 2010s, many Arab countries were ruled by dictators, some of whom had been in power for several decades and had dismantled much of the country's democratic institutions.

2010 年代初，許多阿拉伯國家由獨裁者統治，其中一些獨裁者已掌權數十年，並摧毀了國家的許多民主機構。

The protests started in Tunisia and spread in a matter of weeks to much of the Arab world, but to some countries, more than others.

抗議活動從突尼西亞開始，幾周內就蔓延到阿拉伯世界的許多地方，但有些國家比其他國家更甚。

Tunisia is a popular tourist destination, but beyond its beautiful beaches and rich cultural heritage, a deep frustration had been building for years.

突尼西亞是深受遊客歡迎的旅遊勝地，但除了美麗的海灘和豐富的文化遺產之外，多年來一直存在著深深的挫敗感。

Zine al-Abadine Ben Ali was the second president of Tunisia.

Zine al-Abadine Ben Ali 是突尼西亞第二任總統。

He assumed office little over 20 years earlier, after ousting the sitting president for being incompetent.

20 多年前，他因現任總統無能而被趕下臺，隨後就任總統。

He and his family lived a life of extraordinary wealth.

他和家人的生活異常富裕。

In 2008, a series of classified communications from the US embassy in Tunis were leaked.

2008 年，美國駐突尼西亞大使館的一系列機密通信被洩露。

They made painfully clear how luxuriously the president was living.

他們痛切地表明，總統的生活是多麼奢華。

Lavish dinners, pet tigers, trips to Saint-Tropez.

豪華晚宴、寵物老虎、聖特羅佩之旅。

All the while, Tunisia was suffering.

與此同時，突尼西亞也在遭受苦難。

Unemployment rates were at a record high, and the inflation on food prices caused serious hardships.

失業率創歷史新高，食品價格上漲造成嚴重困難。

The final straw for the Tunisian people came a few years later, in a small town in central Tunisia, Sidi Bouzid.

幾年後，突尼西亞人民的最後一根稻草落在了突尼西亞中部的一個小鎮--西迪布濟德。

Mohamed Bouazizi had been selling vegetables on the streets ever since he finished high school.

Mohamed Bouazizi 高中畢業後就一直在街頭賣菜。

One day, a female police officer confiscated his cart with all of his vegetables.

有一天，一名女警察沒收了他裝有所有蔬菜的手推車。

She slapped him in the face, she spat on him, and insulted his dead father.

她扇他耳光，向他吐口水，還侮辱他死去的父親。

Humiliated and defeated, he went to the police station to file a report, but they didn't want to see him.

他感到羞辱和失敗，於是去警察局報案，但他們不想見他。

So he returned a few moments later, and in front of that same building, he set himself on fire.

於是，他過了一會兒又回來了，在同一棟樓前，他自焚了。

Mohamed Bouazizi died a few days later.

Mohamed Bouazizi 幾天後去世。

He was 26 years old.

他當時 26 歲。

This act of extreme desperation shook the Tunisian people to the core.

這一極端絕望的行為震撼了突尼西亞人民的心靈。

They took to the streets in massive numbers, demanding that President Ben Ali would resign.

大批民眾走上街頭，要求本-阿里總統辭職。

It took a month of protesting before the president fled the country, and another eight months, before his party was dissolved and Tunisia made its historic step towards democracy.

經過一個月的抗議，總統才逃離突尼西亞，又過了八個月，他的政黨才被解散，突尼西亞向民主邁出了歷史性的一步。

Only days after the president of Tunisia had stepped down, the first organized protests in Egypt had commenced.

突尼西亞總統下臺僅幾天後，埃及就開始了第一次有組織的抗議活動。

The streets of Cairo filled with a familiar chant.

開羅街頭充斥著熟悉的歌聲。

They wanted for President Mubarak to resign, but he had different ideas.

他們希望穆巴拉克總統辭職，但他有不同的想法。

Hosni Mubarak had ruled Egypt for almost 30 years, but at the ripe age of 83, he knew that his end was near, so he envisioned handing over power to his son.

胡斯尼-穆巴拉克統治埃及近 30 年，但在 83 歲高齡時，他知道自己的末日即將來臨，是以他設想將權力移交給自己的兒子。

But many Egyptians felt more for a democratic process.

但許多埃及人更傾向於民主進程。

This showed incredible valour and firmness in the face of the government's brutal oppression.

面對政府的殘酷鎮壓，他們表現出了驚人的英勇和堅定。

But luckily for them, two weeks into the protests, the military publicly sided with the protesters.

但幸運的是，抗議活動開始兩週後，軍方公開站在了抗議者一邊。

A week later, President Mubarak resigned.

一週後，穆巴拉克總統辭職。

Later that year, Egyptians voted on a free ballot for the first time in 80 years.

同年晚些時候，埃及人進行了 80 年來首次自由投票。

Egypt had toppled its dictator less than a month after Tunisia, partly because of the military, but with hindsight, we know that that same military had ulterior motives.

埃及在突尼西亞之後不到一個月就推翻了獨裁者，部分原因在於軍方，但事後我們知道，同樣是軍方別有用心。

I'll come back to that in a little bit.

我稍後再談這個問題。

The day that President Ben Ali of Tunisia stepped down, protests erupted in Libya, but their ruler had been in charge a little while longer.

突尼西亞總統本-阿里下臺的當天，利比亞也爆發了抗議活動，但他們的統治者掌權的時間更長一些。

Muammar Gaddafi came to power in the late 1960s after overthrowing Libya's first and only king.

穆阿邁爾-卡扎菲於 20 世紀 60 年代末推翻利比亞第一位也是唯一一位國王后上臺執政。

Libya had just found oil, and Gaddafi saw how foreign companies and a handful of elites were enriching only themselves.

利比亞剛剛發現石油，卡扎菲看到了外國公司和少數精英如何只顧自己發財致富。

Gaddafi renegotiated the oil contracts and managed to keep a majority share of his oil revenue for Libya.

卡扎菲重新談判了石油合同，並設法為利比亞保留了大部分石油收入份額。

He then reinvested this in the country.

然後，他將這筆錢重新投資於國家。

Libya developed rapidly, and the standard of living of the Libyan people became some of the highest in the region.

利比亞迅速發展，利比亞人民的生活水準成為該地區最高的國家之一。

All of this made him tremendously popular.

所有這些都讓他大受歡迎。

But as the years passed by, his rule became more and more authoritarian.

但隨著時間的流逝，他的統治變得越來越專制。

He wouldn't tolerate any opposition and went to extreme lengths to consolidate all power for himself.

他不會容忍任何反對意見，並不惜一切代價為自己鞏固一切權力。

Gaddafi became a dictator.

卡扎菲成了獨裁者。

It started with a handful of protests, but after government troops fired with live ammunition into the crowds, it turned vile, and the unrest escalated into a full-blown civil war.

起初只是少數抗議活動，但在政府軍向人群實彈射擊後，情況變得十分惡劣，騷亂升級為全面內戰。

Gaddafi was pro-Africa and anti-Western, and was sitting on an enormous wealth of natural resources.

卡扎菲親非反西，坐擁豐富的自然資源。

He wasn't liked by some of the world's most powerful countries, who in return generously funded the many opposition groups, fueling a proxy war and escalating the conflict even further.

世界上一些最強大的國家並不喜歡他，而這些國家則慷慨地資助了許多反對派組織，助長了代理戰爭，使衝突進一步升級。

Eight months into the conflict, Gaddafi was captured and killed.

衝突開始八個月後，卡扎菲被抓獲並殺害。

This left Libya in a power vacuum, with opposition groups competing for control.

這使得利比亞出現了權力真空，反對派團體競相爭奪控制權。

Funded by faraway governments and divided amongst itself, Libya's revolution was off to a bloody start.

利比亞革命由遙遠的政府資助，內部分裂，一開始就血雨腥風。

Almost in perfect synchrony, as the president of Tunisia stepped down, protests in Yemen erupted.

幾乎與突尼西亞總統下臺同步，葉門也爆發了抗議活動。

Ali Abdullah Saleh had been the president of Yemen for 22 years, and he was anxiously following the events in Tunisia.

阿里-阿卜杜拉-薩利赫擔任葉門總統已有 22 年，他一直在焦慮地關注著突尼西亞發生的事件。

He decided to tolerate absolutely no dissent.

他決定絕對不容許任何異議。

When a first couple of activists protested and called for President Saleh to step down, he arrested them immediately.

當最初的幾名活動分子提出抗議並要求薩利赫總統下臺時，他立即逮捕了他們。

But amongst them was a young woman, who had just won the Nobel Peace Prize.

但其中有一位年輕女性，她剛剛獲得了諾貝爾和平獎。

Instead of inspiring fear like President Saleh had hoped, these arrests inspired a massive revolt.

這些逮捕行動並沒有像薩利赫總統希望的那樣引發恐懼，反而激發了大規模的反抗。

Yemeni took to the streets in the thousands and kept protesting for well over a year, until the government finally conceded.

成千上萬的也門人走上街頭，持續抗議了一年多，直到政府最終讓步。

President Saleh stepped down, but only to hand over power to his vice-president.

薩利赫總統下臺，但只是將權力移交給副總統。

Yemeni longed for change, but only got a change of the guard.

也門人渴望變革，但得到的只是換防。

Syria had a very similar case, but with a very different outcome.

敘利亞的情況非常相似，但結果卻大相徑庭。

Bashar al-Assad became Syria's president in 2000, after taking over from his father, who had ruled the country since 1971.

巴沙爾-阿薩德於 2000 年接替自 1971 年起統治敘利亞的父親，成為敘利亞總統。

Many Syrians knew nothing else but the reign of the al-Assad family.

許多敘利亞人只知道阿薩德家族的統治。

The presidents of Tunisia and Egypt had just been overthrown, and this gave the Syrian people some hope.

突尼西亞和埃及的總統剛剛被推翻，這給敘利亞人民帶來了一些希望。

The catalyst for their uprising happened in Daraa, a small town in the south of Syria.

他們起義的催化劑發生在敘利亞南部的一個小鎮德拉。

A few young boys had sprayed gravity on the wall of a local school, saying, it is your turn next, doctor.

幾個小男孩在當地一所學校的牆上噴塗了 "下一個輪到你了，醫生 "的字樣。

The police arrested 15 children and questioned them in detention.

警察逮捕了 15 名兒童，並在拘留所對他們進行了審問。

One of them, a 13-year-old boy, was killed after having been brutally tortured by the police.

其中一名 13 歲男孩在遭到警察的殘酷折磨後被殺害。

This sparked protests in various large cities across the nation.

這引發了全國各大城市的抗議活動。

But President al-Assad cracked down incredibly hard on any dissent, killing hundreds of protesters and detaining many more in just the first few weeks.

但是，阿薩德總統對任何不同政見者進行了令人難以置信的嚴厲鎮壓，僅在最初幾周內就殺害了數百名抗議者，拘留了更多人。

But the Syrians wouldn't quietly return home.

但敘利亞人不會悄悄地返回家園。

The opposition started forming militias, and a year after the protests had started, the conflict had expanded into a full-fledged civil war.

反對派開始組建民兵，抗議活動開始一年後，衝突擴大為全面內戰。

A year has now passed since the start of the Arab Spring.

阿拉伯之春 "開始至今已有一年。

Three civil wars have started, and three leaders were toppled.

三場內戰爆發，三位領導人被推翻。

In Iraq, Sudan, Palestine, and Algeria, there were also major uprisings.

伊拉克、蘇丹、巴勒斯坦和阿爾及利亞也發生了大規模起義。

In Morocco, Oman, Kuwait, and Jordan, the government was quick to make concessions and avoided any serious escalation.

在摩洛哥、阿曼、科威特和約旦，政府迅速做出讓步，避免了事態的嚴重升級。

In Saudi Arabia, there were protests by minority Shia Muslims, but these were quietly subdued.

在沙特阿拉伯，什葉派穆斯林少數群體舉行了抗議活動，但這些活動被悄悄地壓制了下去。

And the king, and later his son, started to pass reforms that allowed more civil liberties for women and minority groups.

國王，以及後來他的兒子，開始通過改革，允許婦女和少數群體享有更多的公民自由。

But the loud cries for more jobs, higher standards of living, and democratic institutions were all met in various degrees.

但是，要求增加就業、提高生活水準和民主制度的呼聲都在不同程度上得到了滿足。

This chart shows the standard of living per country, and this is where the Arab Spring started.

這張圖表顯示的是每個國家的生活水準，"阿拉伯之春 "就是從這裡開始的。

In all countries, it remained stagnant, or it dropped.

在所有國家，這一數字都沒有變化，或者有所下降。

Youth unemployment has risen in all these countries.

所有這些國家的青年失業率都有所上升。

Corruption is about the same, or even got slightly worse.

腐敗現象大致相同，甚至略有惡化。

The lower the number on this chart, the more corruption is perceived.

圖表上的數字越小，說明腐敗越嚴重。

But on the Democracy Index, something interesting happens.

但在 "民主指數 "中，發生了一些有趣的事情。

Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia all overthrew their government at the start of the Arab Spring and showed real promise in the first few years.

埃及、利比亞和突尼西亞都在 "阿拉伯之春 "開始時推翻了自己的政府，並在最初幾年展現出了真正的希望。

But Libya descended into civil war, and Egypt's democratic process was undermined.

但利比亞陷入內戰，埃及的民主進程遭到破壞。

In 2011 and 2012, the Brotherhood won the presidency and a plurality in parliament.

2011 年和 2012 年，兄弟會贏得了總統職位和議會多數席位。

But later that year, the Supreme Court dissolved the parliament.

但當年晚些時候，最高法院解散了議會。

In 2013, after months of tensions, the only democratic president Egypt had ever seen was ousted by the military.

2013 年，經過幾個月的緊張局勢，埃及有史以來唯一的民主總統被軍方趕下臺。

Today, meaningful opposition is virtually non-existent, and Egypt's current president rules the country in an increasingly authoritarian manner.

如今，有意義的反對派幾乎不存在，埃及現任總統以日益專制的方式統治著國家。

But the exception seems to be Tunisia.

但突尼西亞似乎是個例外。

Tunisia is often regarded as the only democracy that emerged from the Arab Spring.

突尼西亞通常被視為 "阿拉伯之春 "中出現的唯一民主國家。

In 2011, a moderate Islamist party won the elections.

2011 年，一個溫和的伊斯蘭黨贏得了選舉。

In the following two years, protests broke out for and against a more conservative religious government, and internal challenges persisted.

在隨後的兩年裡，支持和反對更加保守的宗教政府的抗議活動此起彼伏，內部挑戰持續不斷。

But in 2014, they adopted a new constitution.

但在 2014 年，他們通過了一部新憲法。

And in 2021, that same constitution was dissolved, and its new president started ruling by decree.

2021 年，同一部憲法被廢除，新總統開始通過法令進行統治。

Today, there exists deep uncertainty about the future of Tunisia's democracy.

如今，突尼西亞民主的未來充滿了不確定性。

Egypt brought down one autocratic ruler and replaced him with another.

埃及推翻了一個專制統治者，並用另一個統治者取而代之。

Syria, Libya, and Yemen spiraled into a civil war, while other countries appear to have not been affected at all.

敘利亞、利比亞和葉門陷入內戰，而其他國家似乎沒有受到任何影響。

Optimistic scholars attribute reforms in Saudi Arabia that allow women to vote and drive to a changed mindset that was caused by the Arab Spring.

樂觀的學者將沙特阿拉伯允許婦女投票和開車的改革歸功於 "阿拉伯之春 "帶來的思想轉變。

Autocrats across the Arab world saw the need to attend societal challenges and improve their quality of governance.

整個阿拉伯世界的獨裁者都看到了應對社會挑戰和提高治理品質的必要性。

The consequences, if they don't comply, have been clearly demonstrated.

如果他們不遵守，後果已經很清楚了。

You don't change the world in a day.

世界不是一天就能改變的。

And maybe it takes more than a decade.

也許需要十年以上的時間。

Why stop learning now?

為什麼現在要停止學習？

Watch one of these two videos next.

接下來觀看這兩段視頻中的一段。

The one on the left is personally suggested for you by the YouTube algorithm, and the one on the right is handpicked by me.

左邊的是 YouTube 算法親自為您推薦的，右邊的是我親自挑選的。

So click on the most intriguing thumbnail and I'll see you there.

請點擊最吸引人的縮略圖，我們在那裡見。

Thanks for watching.

感謝觀看。