That's what the mainstream media want you to think.

主流媒體就是想讓你這麼想。

Headlines are screaming disaster, social media is in a frenzy, and everyone is asking the same question, should I sell now before it gets worse?

頭條新聞大肆宣揚災難，社交媒體一片譁然，每個人都在問同一個問題：我是否應該在情況變得更糟之前賣掉房子？

But there's more to this than meets the eye.

但是，事情遠不止這些。

If you've followed me for a while, you know I'm a serious investor who's obsessed with the stock market.

如果你關注過我一段時間，你就會知道我是一個對股市非常痴迷的嚴肅投資者。

And since so many of you have started investing because of my videos, I feel a responsibility to give you my honest take on the situation.

既然你們這麼多人因為我的視頻而開始投資，我覺得有責任向你們坦誠我的看法。

So before you panic, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture together.

所以，在你驚慌失措之前，讓我們退一步，一起從大局出發。

Every market crash has a cause, and this one isn't random.

每一次市場崩潰都有其原因，而這一次並非偶然。

There are three main triggers behind it, and all of them tie back to one man, Donald Trump.

這背後有三大誘因，而所有誘因都與一個人有關，那就是唐納德-特朗普。

Now before anyone jumps to conclusions, this isn't about politics.

在任何人妄下結論之前，這與政治無關。

I'm not here to take sides, and as a British investor looking in, my only concern is how this impacts investors like you and me.

我不是來偏袒任何一方的，作為一個旁觀的英國投資者，我唯一關心的是這對你我這樣的投資者有什麼影響。

So let's break down the three biggest triggers behind this crash, why they matter, and what you can do to benefit from all this mayhem.

是以，讓我們來分析一下這次暴跌背後的三大誘因、它們為何如此重要，以及如何才能從這些混亂中獲益。

Trigger one is Trump's trade war.

導火索一是特朗普的貿易戰。

Trump has always pitched himself as the ultimate deal maker.

特朗普一直以終極交易者自居。

He's the guy who fights for American jobs and plays hardball with other countries.

他為美國的就業而戰，與其他國家打硬仗。

But the trade wars he's fighting could increase your weekly shopping bill and cause a recession.

但他所打的貿易戰可能會增加您每週的購物支出，並導致經濟衰退。

The last time the U.S. tried this, it helped trigger the Great Depression, wiping out jobs and wrecking the economy.

美國上一次嘗試這樣做時，引發了大蕭條，摧毀了就業崗位，破壞了經濟。

Now history might be repeating itself.

現在，歷史可能會重演。

Stocks are already crashing, prices are rising, and if this spirals, it won't just hurt Wall Street, it'll hit you where it matters most, your bank account.

股票已經崩盤，物價正在上漲，如果這種螺旋式上升的趨勢繼續下去，傷害的將不僅僅是華爾街，還有你最重要的地方，你的銀行賬戶。

Let me take you back to 1930, when I was just a boy.

讓我帶你回到 1930 年，那時我還是個孩子。

The U.S. government decided to slap massive taxes called tariffs on imported goods to protect American businesses from foreign competition.

美國政府決定對進口商品徵收鉅額稅收，即關稅，以保護美國企業免受外國競爭的影響。

It was called the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and it turned out to be one of the worst economic mistakes in history.

該法案被稱為《斯穆特-霍利關稅法》，結果成為歷史上最嚴重的經濟錯誤之一。

At first, it seemed like it would help.

起初，這似乎會有所幫助。

American companies wouldn't have to compete with cheap imports, and more products would be made in the USA.

美國公司將不必與廉價的進口產品競爭，更多的產品將在美國製造。

But there was a big problem.

但有一個大問題。

Other countries fought back.

其他國家進行了反擊。

Nations that used to trade with the U.S. started raising their own tariffs, making it harder for American businesses to sell products overseas.

曾經與美國有貿易往來的國家開始提高關稅，使美國企業更難向海外銷售產品。

Trade slowed to an absolute crawl, businesses collapsed, and millions lost their jobs.

貿易絕對放緩，企業倒閉，數百萬人失業。

Instead of fixing the economy, it helped turn a regular recession into the Great Depression, one of the worst financial crises ever.

它非但沒有解決經濟問題，反而助長了正常的經濟衰退，使其演變成有史以來最嚴重的金融危機之一--大蕭條。

Fast forward nearly a century, and Trump has brought back tariffs in a big way.

快進近一個世紀後，特朗普又大張旗鼓地恢復了關稅。

In February 2025, Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, and a 25% tariff on other Canadian goods.

2025 年 2 月，特朗普宣佈對加拿大進口能源徵收 10%的關稅，對加拿大其他商品徵收 25%的關稅。

In retaliation, Canada imposed a 25% tariff on American imports.

作為報復，加拿大對美國進口商品徵收 25% 的關稅。

Then in March, Ontario implemented a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S., affecting states like New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

隨後在 3 月份，安大略省對出口到美國的電力征收 25% 的附加費，影響到紐約、密歇根和明尼蘇達等州。

However, in my opinion, this was more of a symbolic move that wouldn't have seriously damaged the U.S. economy.

不過，在我看來，這只是一個象徵性的舉動，不會對美國經濟造成嚴重損害。

However, Trump didn't hold back, and instead of just brushing it off, he fired back by increasing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%.

然而，特朗普並沒有忍氣吞聲，他不僅沒有拂袖而去，反而將對加拿大鋼鋁徵收的關稅提高到了 50%。

Unlike Canada's move, this wasn't just for show, it hit Canada's manufacturing industry hard while also driving up steel prices for American businesses that rely on imports.

與加拿大的舉動不同，美國此舉並非作秀，它在重創加拿大製造業的同時，也推高了依賴進口的美國企業的鋼材價格。

But why am I telling you all this?

但我為什麼要告訴你這些呢？

Well this is where the real problem starts.

這才是真正的問題所在。

Tariffs sound good on paper, as they're meant to punish foreign businesses while encouraging more stuff to be made in America.

關稅在紙面上聽起來不錯，因為它們的目的是懲罰外國企業，同時鼓勵更多的東西在美國製造。

But in reality, they end up hurting regular people more than anyone else.

但實際上，它們最終傷害的是普通人，而不是其他人。

As a business owner who manufactures products and imports from China myself, I know that when businesses are forced to pay more for materials, they don't just absorb the cost, they pass it on to their customers.

作為一名生產產品並從中國進口產品的企業主，我知道，當企業被迫為材料支付更多費用時，他們不僅會消化成本，還會將其轉嫁給客戶。

That means higher prices on cars, appliances, and electronics.

這意味著汽車、電器和電子產品的價格上漲。

In addition to this, food becomes more expensive because supply chains get disrupted, meaning that everyday essentials cost more, stretching household budgets even further.

除此以外，由於供應鏈中斷，食品變得更加昂貴，這意味著日常必需品的價格更高，使家庭預算更加捉襟見肘。

On top of that, other countries aren't just sitting around while Trump raises tariffs, they are forming new alliances to trade without the US.

除此之外，其他國家也不會坐視特朗普提高關稅，它們正在結成新的聯盟，以便在沒有美國的情況下開展貿易。

China is leading the charge with the BRICS alliance, partnering with Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa to reduce dependence on American trade.

中國正在上司金磚國家聯盟，與巴西、俄羅斯、印度和南非合作，減少對美國貿易的依賴。

So the more the US isolates itself, the more other countries look elsewhere for business.

是以，美國越是孤立自己，其他國家就越要到其他地方尋找商機。

So what's my opinion on all of this as an experienced investor?

那麼，作為一名經驗豐富的投資者，我對這一切有什麼看法呢？

Well, if Trump goes all in on this trade war, history suggests it will do more harm than good.

那麼，如果特朗普在這場貿易戰中一意孤行，歷史表明這將弊大於利。

While some industries might get a short-term boost, the long-term damage, such as higher prices, weaker global ties, and a slowing US economy could far outweigh any benefits.

雖然一些行業可能會得到短期刺激，但長期損害，如價格上漲、全球聯繫減弱和美國經濟放緩，可能會遠遠超過任何好處。

But if I'm being completely honest, I don't think Trump actually wants high tariffs.

但如果我完全說實話，我不認為特朗普真的想要高關稅。

I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，但請聽我說完。

Trump is, at his core, a businessman and a dealmaker, just like me.

特朗普的核心是商人和交易商，就像我一樣。

That's why I believe he's using tariffs as a negotiation tactic, not as an end goal.

這就是為什麼我認為他把關稅作為一種談判策略，而不是最終目標。

So if that's true, what does he actually want?

如果這是真的，他到底想要什麼？

Well, I think he's after free global trade, but on terms that favour the US, and if he pulls that off, it could pay off big time.

我認為，他追求的是全球自由貿易，但條件是有利於美國，如果他能做到這一點，就能獲得巨大回報。

However, the problem is, his approach is creating massive uncertainty.

但問題是，他的做法正在製造巨大的不確定性。

The constant backtracking, new tariffs, and mixed signals are spooking the stock market because investors hate unpredictability.

不斷的出爾反爾、新的關稅和混雜的信號正在擾亂股市，因為投資者討厭不可預測性。

If this drags on too long, it could shake confidence so much that it pushes the economy towards recession, something even Trump's own administration has admitted they are willing to risk.

如果這種情況拖得太久，可能會嚴重動搖信心，從而將經濟推向衰退，就連特朗普自己的政府也承認，他們願意冒這種風險。

Right now, the market isn't just reacting to tariffs, it's reacting to uncertainty about what comes next, and in investing, uncertainty is one of the biggest killers of confidence.

現在，市場不僅對關稅做出反應，還對接下來的不確定性做出反應，而在投資中，不確定性是信心的最大殺手之一。

Trigger two is Trump's stance on NATO.

導火索之二是特朗普對北約的立場。

Trump has openly questioned the role of NATO, the military alliance that protects Western countries.

特朗普公開質疑保護西方國家的軍事聯盟北約的作用。

He's suggested that the US shouldn't keep defending allies unless they start paying more for their own protection.

他建議，美國不應該繼續保衛盟國，除非盟國開始為保護自己支付更多費用。

While that might sound like a fair demand, if the US steps back from its NATO commitments, it could create a power vacuum that countries like Russia and China might exploit.

雖然這聽起來像是一個公平的要求，但如果美國從北約的承諾中後退，就會造成權力真空，而俄羅斯和中國等國家可能會利用這一真空。

Markets hate uncertainty.

市場討厭不確定性。

The second investors sense that world stability is at risk, they panic.

投資者一感覺到世界穩定受到威脅，就會驚慌失措。

If NATO weakens, it could encourage Russia to push further into Europe, or even lead to new conflicts as countries try to adjust to a world without the USA acting as the global police force.

如果北約衰弱，可能會鼓勵俄羅斯進一步向歐洲推進，甚至導致新的衝突，因為各國都在努力適應一個沒有美國作為全球警察力量的世界。

More conflicts mean higher military spending, unpredictable trade relationships, and spikes in energy prices, all of which can rattle the stock market.

更多的衝突意味著更高的軍費開支、不可預知的貿易關係和能源價格的飆升，所有這些都會對股市造成衝擊。

Trigger three is Trump's secret plan.

觸發器三是特朗普的祕密計劃。

There's been a theory circulating that Trump may be crashing the stock market on purpose.

坊間流傳著一種說法，認為特朗普可能是故意讓股市崩潰的。

I know that sounds crazy, but there is some evidence for it.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，但還是有一些證據的。

Trump has never been a fan of high interest rates.

特朗普從來都不喜歡高利率。

In fact, he's called them ridiculous, and has openly attacked the Federal Reserve for keeping them high.

事實上，他說這些數字很荒謬，並公開抨擊美聯儲將數字維持在高位。

Now, here's where it gets interesting.

現在，有趣的地方來了。

The Fed is technically independent, meaning Trump can't just tell them to cut interest rates, but their decisions are based on economic conditions.

美聯儲在技術上是獨立的，這意味著特朗普不能直接告訴他們降息，但他們的決定是基於經濟狀況的。

If the stock market crashes and a recession seems inevitable, the Fed has no choice but to step in and slash interest rates to prevent a total meltdown.

如果股市崩潰，經濟衰退似乎不可避免，美聯儲別無選擇，只能介入並降低利率，以防止全面崩潰。

But why does Trump want lower rates?

但為什麼特朗普希望降低利率呢？

Well, because high interest rates slow down the economy.

嗯，因為高利率會拖累經濟。

Businesses borrow less, stocks struggle, people stop spending as much, and for Trump, who loves growth and hates anything that makes America look weak, they're a problem.

企業借貸減少，股市掙扎，人們不再大量消費，對於喜歡增長、討厭任何讓美國看起來軟弱的東西的特朗普來說，這些都是問題。

It's not just about making the stock market go up, it's way bigger than that.

這不僅僅是為了讓股市上漲，它的意義遠不止於此。

The US government is drowning in $36.5 trillion of debt, and when interest rates are high, the cost of that debt goes through the roof.

美國政府正被 36.5 萬億美元的債務所淹沒，而當利率高企時，債務成本就會急劇上升。

Think of it like a massive credit card bill.

把它想象成一張鉅額信用卡賬單。

Imagine you owe $36,500, and your credit card company charges 10% interest per year.

想象一下，你欠款 36,500 美元，而你的信用卡公司每年收取 10%的利息。

That means, before you even start paying down the actual debt, you're being charged $3,650 every single year, just in interest.

這意味著，在你開始償還實際債務之前，僅利息一項每年就要向你收取 3,650 美元。

Now imagine the credit card company suddenly slashes the interest rate to 3%.

現在想象一下，信用卡公司突然將利率降至 3%。

Instead of paying $3,650 per year, your interest drops to just $1,095 annually.

每年的利息從 3,650 美元下降到 1,095 美元。

That's a saving of $2,555 every single year.

這樣每年就能節省 2,555 美元。

Now you can put this money towards actually paying off your debt instead of just keeping up with your interest payments.

現在，您可以將這筆錢用於實際償還債務，而不僅僅是支付利息。

Well, that's exactly what Trump might be doing, but on a $36.5 trillion scale.

嗯，這正是特朗普可能要做的，但規模是 36.5 萬億美元。

If the Fed lowers interest rates, the government can refinance its debt at a cheaper rate, saving billions, if not trillions, in interest payments.

如果美聯儲降低利率，政府就能以更低的利率對債務進行再融資，從而節省數十億甚至數萬億的利息支出。

This wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened.

這樣的事情已經不是第一次發生了。

If Trump can create that opportunity on purpose, it could go down as one of the smartest economic power moves in history.

如果特朗普能有目的地創造出這樣的機會，那麼它將成為歷史上最明智的經濟實力舉措之一。

If this theory is true, we're not looking at a long-term economic collapse, we're looking at a temporary shake-up before a massive rebound.

如果這一理論屬實，我們看到的就不是長期的經濟崩潰，而是大規模反彈前的暫時動盪。

So you're probably wondering, how can you benefit from this crash?

所以，你可能想知道，如何才能從這次碰撞中獲益？

Well, you need to understand that stock market crashes aren't rare disasters, they're a normal part of investing.

那麼，你需要明白，股市崩盤並不是罕見的災難，而是投資的正常現象。

Every few years, the stock market takes a hit, people panic and headlines scream, the end is near.

每隔幾年，股市就會遭受重創，人們驚慌失措，頭條新聞也會大喊 "末日來臨"。

But history tells us a different story.

但歷史告訴我們一個不同的故事。

Every crash of the US market has been followed by a recovery.

美國市場每次暴跌之後都會出現復甦。

The people who panic and sell usually lose money, while the ones who stay calm and invest strategically often come out on top.

驚慌失措並拋售的人通常會損失錢財，而保持冷靜並進行戰略性投資的人往往會獲勝。

Instead of freaking out, this is the time to prepare, make smart moves and hopefully set yourself up for massive gains when the market bounces back.

與其驚慌失措，不如做好準備，採取明智的行動，希望在市場反彈時為自己帶來巨大收益。

Look, I'm not a financial advisor, however, I have made millions during stock market crashes, so here are my thoughts on what you can do to prepare.

聽著，我不是財務顧問，不過，我在股市崩盤時賺了幾百萬，所以，以下是我關於如何做好準備的想法。

Step one is to invest while the market is down.

第一步是在市場下跌時進行投資。

Before you even think about investing, you need a rock-solid financial foundation.

在考慮投資之前，您需要有堅實的財務基礎。

I know I've said it before, but it's worth repeating.

我知道我以前說過，但還是值得重複一遍。

That means building an emergency fund of at least three to six months worth of living expenses and eliminating any debt with an interest rate above 8%.

這意味著要建立一個至少相當於三到六個月生活費用的應急基金，並消除任何利率高於 8%的債務。

Assuming you've done that, if you've never invested before, this could be one of the best times to start.

如果您已經做到了這一點，如果您以前從未投資過，現在可能是開始投資的最佳時機之一。

Stocks are essentially on sale.

股票基本上都在銷售。

During the 2008 financial crisis, I was still investing at the bottom and saw my investments double within a few years.

2008 年金融危機期間，我仍在底部進行投資，幾年內我的投資額翻了一番。

However, many of my friends panicked and sold, locking in their losses and missing out on the recovery.

然而，我的許多朋友卻驚慌失措地拋售，鎖定了損失，錯過了復甦的機會。

No one can perfectly predict the exact bottom of the market, but if you invest consistently while prices are low, you'll be buying assets at a discount.

沒有人能完全預測市場的確切底部，但如果你在價格低迷時持續投資，就會以折扣價買入資產。

If you want to get started, then Trading 212 are currently giving you a free fractional share worth up to £100 when you use the code Tilbury in the app and fund your account.

如果您想入門，Trading 212 目前正在為您提供免費的零碎股票，價值高達 100 英鎊，只要您在應用程序中使用代碼 Tilbury 併為賬戶注資即可。

If you've been waiting for a good time to do this, then this could be it.

如果您一直在等待這樣做的好時機，那麼現在可能就是時候了。

I'll leave a link in the description below if you're interested.

如果你感興趣，我將在下面的描述中留下鏈接。

Step two is to stay disciplined and think long-term.

第二步是嚴於律己，著眼長遠。

Market crashes aren't random.

市場崩潰並非偶然。

They follow predictable cycles.

它們遵循可預測的週期。

There are three types of crashes, corrections, which is a 10 to 20% drop.

有三種類型的撞車，一種是校正，即下降 10%至 20%。

These happen frequently and are part of a healthy market.

這種情況經常發生，是健康市場的一部分。

Bear markets, which is a 20 to 40% drop.

低迷的市場，即下跌 20% 至 40%。

These happen every few years and last about 289 days on average.

這種情況每隔幾年發生一次，平均持續約 289 天。

And fall collapses, which are more than 40% drops.

而秋季塌方，其跌幅超過 40%。

These are rare, but have historically been followed by huge recoveries in the USA.

這種情況很少見，但在美國曆來都會出現巨大的復甦。

The biggest mistake new investors make is letting emotions dictate their decisions.

新投資者犯的最大錯誤就是讓情緒左右他們的決定。

When stocks drop, fear kicks in, and people sell at a loss.

股票下跌時，人們會產生恐懼，從而虧本拋售。

When stocks rise, greed takes over, and then they buy at inflated prices.

當股票上漲時，貪婪就會佔據上風，然後他們就會以虛高的價格買入。

This cycle is why most people fail at investing.

這種循環就是大多數人投資失敗的原因。

So if you're already investing, the worst mistake you can make is panic selling.

是以，如果你已經在投資，那麼你可能犯的最嚴重的錯誤就是恐慌性拋售。

Selling while the market is down locks in your losses and keeps you from benefiting from when stocks recover.

在市場下跌時賣出，會鎖定你的損失，使你無法在股票回升時獲益。

Instead, consider increasing your investments while stocks are cheap.

相反，應考慮趁股票便宜時增加投資。

Stick to a long-term strategy like dollar cost averaging.

堅持美元成本平均法等長期策略。

Invest in a fixed amount every month, no matter what the market's doing.

無論市場行情如何，每月投資固定金額。

This reduces the risk of buying in at the wrong time and ensures you're steadily building wealth.

這樣可以降低在錯誤的時間買入的風險，確保您穩步積累財富。

Remember, the best investors see downturns as a chance to buy more.

請記住，最優秀的投資者會將經濟下滑視為買入更多的機會。

Step three is to diversify your investments.

第三步是分散投資。

Putting all your money into one type of investment is a recipe for disaster.

將所有資金投入一種類型的投資會帶來災難。

The key to surviving market crashes is diversification.

在市場崩潰中倖存下來的關鍵是多樣化。

This means spreading your money across different types of assets.

這意味著將您的資金分散到不同類型的資產中。

My portfolio includes stocks, bonds, precious metals like gold, real estate, and even cryptocurrency.

我的投資組合包括股票、債券、黃金等貴金屬、房地產，甚至加密貨幣。

It's also worth considering dividend-paying stocks, as they actually perform well during downturns because they generate passive income even when prices are low.

派息股票也值得考慮，因為這些股票在經濟低迷時期實際上表現良好，因為它們即使在價格低迷時也能產生被動收入。

Just remember, market crashes aren't the end of the world.

請記住，市場崩潰並不是世界末日。

If you understand how to navigate them, you won't be the one panicking.

如果你瞭解如何駕馭它們，你就不會成為驚慌失措的那個人。

You'll be the one taking advantage of the opportunities while everyone else is running for the exit.

當其他人都跑向出口時，你將是那個抓住機會的人。

This isn't the time to fear the market.

現在不是害怕市場的時候。

It's the time to prepare, invest wisely, and stay patient.

現在是做好準備、明智投資和保持耐心的時候了。

The ones who make the smartest moves now will be the ones who come out on top when the market rebounds.

現在採取最明智行動的人，將在市場反彈時拔得頭籌。

If you wanna know how to invest in 2025, then I'm gonna leave that video right up there.

如果你想知道如何投資 2025 年，那我就把這段視頻放在這裡。

But don't click on it just yet.

但先別急著點擊。

Make sure to subscribe if you wanna grow your wealth, okay?

如果你想增加財富，請務必訂閱，好嗎？

I'll see you over there.

那邊見