In just a few weeks, his administration has lambasted U.S. allies fighting for survival, reshaped the global economic order, and cast doubt on some of Washington's oldest and most trusted friendships, including here in Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy claimed by Beijing.

As Trump defies the norms of global politics, Taipei faces a sobering reality, re-evaluating how it deals with its chief security guarantor, while military pressure from its adversary China intensifies.

For those observing Taiwan, it's an anxious time.

I do worry about the possibility that Taiwan could be put on the negotiating table between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

So in this video, we're asking one question, does Trump make Taiwan more or less vulnerable to Chinese attack?

We're the first civilian drill to take place since Taiwan's president set up a committee for whole of society resilience last year.

The aim of the drill is to ensure Taiwan can continue to run during a national emergency.

Today's drill is simulating an earthquake, which has caused a tsunami, which is about to hit Taiwan, but also an unspecified attack on critical national infrastructure.

Although everyone knows that that probably means China.

Taiwan's president is just over there at a medical facility where they're simulating treating patients with major injuries.

Officials say these drills are unscripted, but you can see from how staged some of this feels that it feels very far from reality.

Even so, Taiwan's government is underscoring their importance, just as the commitments of its chief back at Washington look more uncertain.

For decades, an unspoken but implicit guarantee that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China attacked has helped keep peace across the Taiwan Strait.

But during his 2024 election campaign, Trump claimed falsely that Taiwan had stolen America's semiconductor business, and so doubts he'd be willing to sacrifice U.S. resources, let alone lives, for Taiwan.

This is Bonnie Glaser.

She's a leading expert on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan based in Washington.

We all know the history that Trump has not seen Taiwan of great importance to the United States.

There's always the uncertainty about whether President Trump would in fact come to Taiwan's aid if China were to attack.

For many in Taiwan, events in Europe are core to their concerns.

The way Trump has downgraded American commitments to Ukraine sparked fears he could do the same to them.

And that could embolden Chinese leader Xi Jinping to make a move against Taiwan.

That's despite senior Trump officials saying the reason they want to de-emphasize Europe is to confront Beijing.

Doesn't Trump's unpredictability make life much more difficult for Taiwan?

There are certainly risks.

What you have today is a coming together of these factors of China having increasingly the capability to take Taiwan at an acceptable cost.

The United States may not have sufficient capability to defend Taiwan.

And then, of course, the question of the president himself and his aversion to getting involved in any kind of a military conflict.

As Chinese military intimidation increases, for Taiwan, all that could be a perfect but deadly storm.

Facing Trump's calls for partners to do more for their own defense, this is one area where Taiwan is trying to become more self-sufficient.

So we've come down to Chiayi in southern Taiwan, which is a city where the government has been investing a lot in drone research and innovation.

And today we're attending a competition where six teams are competing, mostly comprised of university students but also some drone company professionals as well.

The challenges set out for the teams are designed to simulate real war situations.

Chai Junyu is a software engineer at Tron Future, a Taiwanese company set up in 2018 that makes drones and anti-drone detection systems.

I asked Lin Junliang, vice president of Nara Labs, a tech innovation center, about the main challenges facing Taiwan's drone industry.

The question of who is making what is a crucial one for Taiwan.

Ukraine's successful use of drones to fight a much larger enemy has boosted global demand.

But the world leader in producing commercial drones and drone parts is China.

With the U.S. trying to de-risk supply chains away from China, Taiwan hopes filling that gap will keep Trump close.

That idea of creating interdependence fits in with Taiwan's so-called Silicon Shield.

That's the concept that America will protect Taiwan from China because the island produces 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, the brains of modern electronics.

But even here, there's a problem for Taiwan.

You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business.

OK?

They want us to protect and they want protection.

They don't pay us money for the protection, you know?

That world-beating chip industry Taiwan's so proud of means it has one of the largest trade surpluses with the United States.

And that led Trump to slap tariffs of 32% on imports from Taiwan.

But semiconductors were exempt.

And this might be why.

This is President Trump with C.C.

Wei, the CEO of TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

It's March 3rd, 2025.

And they're making a big announcement.

Today, Taiwan Semiconductor is announcing that they will be investing at least $100 billion in new capital in the United States over the next short period of time to build state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing facilities.

TSMC had already invested in the U.S. state of Arizona.

But this new announcement was massive.

In Taiwan, it sparked fears that its silicon shield was being eroded.

That if its companies were making advanced chips in the U.S., it would reduce Washington's motivation to protect Taiwan.

Days later, back in Taipei, C.C.

Wei held another press conference with Taiwan's president to try to allay the public's fears.

Even officials across the strait have taken notice.

So we're traveling to the beating heart of Taiwan's silicon shield, Hsinchu, to speak with an employee of TSMC.

They've requested anonymity because they're not authorized to speak to media.

We want to know how vulnerable TSMC is feeling and whether they're willing to invest in Taiwan.

But the move to set up manufacturing in the U.S. was a result of American pressure.

On the surface, I can't say it's that direct.

But I think there's still some political information in there.

If more advanced chips were moved to the U.S., would you be worried that this strategy would destroy Taiwan's silicon shield?

Yes.

Some of them might be replicated in the form of chips.

In Taiwan, there's real concern about America's position and the continued strength of the silicon shield.

And yet, there are signs of continued good relations.

In February, Washington quietly unfroze $870 million worth of security assistance for Taiwan.

And Taiwan's president has pledged to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.

Although some U.S. administration officials have since called for it to go as high as 10%.

This is Li Wen, a spokesperson for Taiwan's presidential office.

The security partnership between Taiwan and the U.S. remains very strong.

When it comes to Taiwan's security, there's also an important principle to remember.

We must help ourselves before others can help us.

Taiwan must bear the most responsibility for its own security.

And Taiwan does not take any foreign military assistance for granted. 10% is not attainable for Taiwan at the moment.

However, we want to continue to work with our like-minded international partners to continue to strengthen our defense.

What does all this mean for Taiwan's future?

Some say Trump could compel Taiwan to more urgently strengthen its own defenses.

And at the same time, his aversion to war with China could also play in Taiwan's favor.

I like to think that because President Trump does not want to be drawn into a war, that he will do his utmost to strengthen deterrence and send signals to Xi Jinping that the United States would defend Taiwan.

Because then President Trump will never have to face the conundrum of choosing whether or not to defend Taiwan if Beijing attacks.

Looking ahead to the next four years, what are your chief concerns about the cross-strait situation?

There is certainly a scenario in which Xi Jinping decides that it is time to use force against Taiwan, maybe because he calculates that the United States would not come to Taiwan's defense.

To date, China has been the country that has been changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

And I think that the U.S. and Taiwan have to ensure that they understand what will deter China and what could potentially provoke China.

This is a crucial question for the future.

Millions of lives depend on leaders in Beijing, Washington and Taipei getting it right.