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  • Some of the biggest firms on Wall Street are raising their expectations of a recession in the next 12 months.

  • While it's far from certain that it's in the cards, we are bringing you some steps you can take today to prepare just in case.

  • Joining me is Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney.com and host of the podcast HerMoney with Jean Chatzky.

  • And Jean, we should say here, a lot of these folks are not predicting a recession.

  • They're just raising the chances that it could happen.

  • Most of them are predicting a slowdown from the growth where we are right now.

  • What should people be looking out for?

  • What signs that could signal a slowdown or even a recession is coming?

  • We'll keep an eye on unemployment.

  • Unemployment is likely to start ticking up if there is a recession.

  • We'll look at consumer spending.

  • Consumers often lose confidence.

  • We're starting to see declining consumer confidence already.

  • If we see a slowdown in consumer spending, that can be another sign that we are headed into recession.

  • But the tricky part about a recession is that we could be in one already and not know it simply because the data lags.

  • And so for individual investors, the thing to keep an eye on is your own finances.

  • You want to focus on controlling the things that you can control, making sure that your job is shored up as much as possible.

  • And if you feel it's tenuous, making sure that you are taking steps right now in terms of brushing up your LinkedIn, brushing up your resume.

  • You want to make sure that you're keeping a little bit of extra powder dry in terms of savings in case you need it in an emergency.

  • You're not going to be able to control the roller coaster markets, but you are going to be able to keep a lid on your own wallet, at least to some degree.

  • And speaking of controlling things you can control, Jean, it's a good reminder what you were saying about your LinkedIn.

  • Also, the job market is not necessarily weak right now, but it's not at the height it was a couple of years ago.

  • So if someone's preparing to leave a job voluntarily, they should probably have another one lined up.

  • Yeah, absolutely.

  • I mean, we stop and think, oh my gosh, a recession, I'm never going to be able to get a job.

  • No, hiring happens continually.

  • It just happens a little more slowly in a recession, which means it may take you a little bit longer to get that next job.

  • And so, Julie, exactly what you're saying is what I would say.

  • Don't quit the job until you've got the next one lined up.

  • Now is not the time to do that.

  • How else can people sort of prepare their budgets if there is going to be a slowdown?

  • How should they be assessing things?

  • It's always important to keep an eye on what's coming in, what's going out, and where it's going.

  • And that basically means tracking your spending.

  • You've got a lot of control, more than you would think, about where your money is going.

  • The problem is that many people simply don't pay attention, and that means that they're not saving as much as they possibly could.

  • So track your spending for enough.

  • Make some changes.

  • Cancel the subscriptions that you're not using.

  • Try to keep a lid on your takeout budget.

  • Food is always the surprise when people look at their budgets.

  • And then make sure that you're putting your money to work for you in a savings account that actually gives you something for the fact that it's holding on to your money.

  • You put some money in a plain vanilla savings account at a bank, you're going to get an average interest rate of 0.4%.

  • Put it into a high-yield savings account, and you're going to get seven times that.

  • That is truly significant.

  • Barclays is rolling out a program for AARP members, for example, where AARP members with no minimums can know that they're going to get the highest rate that Barclays is offering on a high-yield savings account with FDIC protection.

  • They're doing the same for a number of CDs.

  • So it's really just a matter of smart shopping.

  • And if you're looking for information on that particular program, you can find it at aarpdigitalbanking.com.

  • Okay, good tip there.

  • And then finally, what are some mistakes that people should try to avoid with their money if things are going to be slowing down?

  • You want to keep a lid on that credit card debt.

  • We are seeing credit card debt and other consumer debt rising pretty quickly.

  • And with interest rate on credit cards still in the high 20% range, that's very, very expensive debt to be carrying right now.

  • So it really all comes back to those basics.

  • The other thing that you want to make sure that you're not doing is behaving emotionally.

  • That's true when it comes to impulse spending, but it's also true when it comes to how you're managing your portfolio in the market.

  • Don't try to time things.

  • Just keep contributing to your 401ks and other accounts as you get paid every single time.

  • Jean, thanks so much.

  • Good to see you.

Some of the biggest firms on Wall Street are raising their expectations of a recession in the next 12 months.

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