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Some of the biggest firms on Wall Street are raising their expectations of a recession in the next 12 months.
While it's far from certain that it's in the cards, we are bringing you some steps you can take today to prepare just in case.
Joining me is Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney.com and host of the podcast HerMoney with Jean Chatzky.
And Jean, we should say here, a lot of these folks are not predicting a recession.
They're just raising the chances that it could happen.
Most of them are predicting a slowdown from the growth where we are right now.
What should people be looking out for?
What signs that could signal a slowdown or even a recession is coming?
We'll keep an eye on unemployment.
Unemployment is likely to start ticking up if there is a recession.
We'll look at consumer spending.
Consumers often lose confidence.
We're starting to see declining consumer confidence already.
If we see a slowdown in consumer spending, that can be another sign that we are headed into recession.
But the tricky part about a recession is that we could be in one already and not know it simply because the data lags.
And so for individual investors, the thing to keep an eye on is your own finances.
You want to focus on controlling the things that you can control, making sure that your job is shored up as much as possible.
And if you feel it's tenuous, making sure that you are taking steps right now in terms of brushing up your LinkedIn, brushing up your resume.
You want to make sure that you're keeping a little bit of extra powder dry in terms of savings in case you need it in an emergency.
You're not going to be able to control the roller coaster markets, but you are going to be able to keep a lid on your own wallet, at least to some degree.
And speaking of controlling things you can control, Jean, it's a good reminder what you were saying about your LinkedIn.
Also, the job market is not necessarily weak right now, but it's not at the height it was a couple of years ago.
So if someone's preparing to leave a job voluntarily, they should probably have another one lined up.
Yeah, absolutely.
I mean, we stop and think, oh my gosh, a recession, I'm never going to be able to get a job.
No, hiring happens continually.
It just happens a little more slowly in a recession, which means it may take you a little bit longer to get that next job.
And so, Julie, exactly what you're saying is what I would say.
Don't quit the job until you've got the next one lined up.
Now is not the time to do that.
How else can people sort of prepare their budgets if there is going to be a slowdown?
How should they be assessing things?
It's always important to keep an eye on what's coming in, what's going out, and where it's going.
And that basically means tracking your spending.
You've got a lot of control, more than you would think, about where your money is going.
The problem is that many people simply don't pay attention, and that means that they're not saving as much as they possibly could.
So track your spending for enough.
Make some changes.
Cancel the subscriptions that you're not using.
Try to keep a lid on your takeout budget.
Food is always the surprise when people look at their budgets.
And then make sure that you're putting your money to work for you in a savings account that actually gives you something for the fact that it's holding on to your money.
You put some money in a plain vanilla savings account at a bank, you're going to get an average interest rate of 0.4%.
Put it into a high-yield savings account, and you're going to get seven times that.
That is truly significant.
Barclays is rolling out a program for AARP members, for example, where AARP members with no minimums can know that they're going to get the highest rate that Barclays is offering on a high-yield savings account with FDIC protection.
They're doing the same for a number of CDs.
So it's really just a matter of smart shopping.
And if you're looking for information on that particular program, you can find it at aarpdigitalbanking.com.
Okay, good tip there.
And then finally, what are some mistakes that people should try to avoid with their money if things are going to be slowing down?
You want to keep a lid on that credit card debt.
We are seeing credit card debt and other consumer debt rising pretty quickly.
And with interest rate on credit cards still in the high 20% range, that's very, very expensive debt to be carrying right now.
So it really all comes back to those basics.
The other thing that you want to make sure that you're not doing is behaving emotionally.
That's true when it comes to impulse spending, but it's also true when it comes to how you're managing your portfolio in the market.
Don't try to time things.
Just keep contributing to your 401ks and other accounts as you get paid every single time.
Jean, thanks so much.
Good to see you.