Earth's average surface temperature has warmed by point eight celsius since 1750

地表平均氣溫從1750至今 增加了0.8度

when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere have doubled

大氣中二氧化碳的濃度增加了一倍

which is expected before the end of the twenty first century

21世紀末才會發生的改變提早到來

Researchers project global temperature will have raisen by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius

研究員預測地球溫度會上升1.5度 變成4.5度

if the increase is near the low end 1.5 celsius

如果預測的1.5度是最小值

then we're already half way there

我們已經達到最小值的一半

we should be more able the adopt with some regions are becoming dryer and less productive

如此一來 某些地方會更乾燥貧瘠

but others becoming warmer wetter and more productive

另一些卻會更溫暖、潮濕、肥沃

on the other hand, a rise of 4.5 degree celsius would be similar in magnitude

氣溫提高4.5度後 就相當於發生了

to the warming that's occur since the last glacier maximum, 22 thousand years ago

兩千兩百萬年前末次冰盛期至今的暖化

when most of the north America was under ice sheet 2 kilometer's thick

當時北美大半都覆蓋在2公里的冰層底下

so that would represent the dramatic change of climate

這表示氣候經歷了急遽的變遷

so it's vitally important for scientists to predict the change in temperature

精確預測溫度的波動刻不容緩

with as much precision as possible. so the society can plan for the future

人們得及早替未來打算

the present range of uncertainty simply too large to be confident of how best to respond to climate change

目前氣溫變化幅度太大 無法提出最佳相應措施

but this estima to 1.5 to 4.5 celsius for doubling the carbon dioxide hasn't change in 35 years

但「二氧化碳增加一倍 氣溫上升1.5到4.5度」的估計 停滯了35年

why haven't we been able to narrow it down?

為什麼無法再縮小範圍呢?

the answer is we don't yet understand aerosols in clouds well enough

因為我們還不了解雲朵裡的浮質

but the new experimentists is tackling the problem

不過已經有人開始做實驗了

in order to predict how the temperature will change. Scientist need to know some called earth climate sensitivity.

為了預測溫度如何變化 科學家必須知道何謂「氣候敏感性」

the temperature change in response to radiative forcing

也就是因應輻射強迫 產生的氣溫波動(ΔF為輻射強迫、ΔT為輻射強迫帶來的地表溫度改變)

A radiat forum set is a temperate imbalace between the energy receive from the sun

輻射效應指的是地球吸收

and energy radiate back out to space like the imbalance cause by increase of green house gases

和發散的輻射量不平衡 而會不平衡是由於溫室氣體增加了

to correct imbalance of warms up or cools down,

藉由取得暖化和冷化之間的平衡

we can determine earth climate sensitivity from the experiment we've already performed in industrial age since 1750.

就能從1750年工業時代做的實驗推知氣候敏感性

and then the uses number to determine how much more it will warm to varies projected radiated forcing in the twenty first century

然後用相關數字推算21世紀的暖化程度 對輻射效應會有什麼影響

to do this, we need to know two things.

要達成以上目的 得先知道兩件事

First, the global temperature rise since 1750.

首先 1750年至今的地球溫度上升了

And second, the radiative forcing of the present day climate relative to the pre-industrial climate

再來 今天的輻射強迫現象和前工業時期的氣候息息相關

for the radiative forcing we know that human activities has been increased green house gases in the atmosphere which warm the planet

人類活動增加了大氣中的溫室氣體 讓地球變暖

but our activities have at the same time increase the amount of aerosols particles in clouds which have cooled the planet.

但同時也增加了雲層裡的氣溶膠粒子(註: 固體或液體 藉吸收或發散輻射影響氣候) 讓地球降溫

Pre-industrial green house gas concentrations are well measured

前工業時代的溫室氣體濃度很明確

From bubbles trap in ice course of tent in Greenland and Antarctic.

藉著研究格陵蘭和南極冰塊中的泡泡結構

So the greenhouse gas forcings are precisely known.

就能知道溫室氣體的影響

But we have no way of direct recongnition how cloudy it was in 1750.

但畢竟不可能親眼看到1750年代的雲有多少

And that’s the main source of uncertainty in earth climate sensitivity.

這就是地球氣候敏感性如此不確定的主因

To understand pre-industrial cloudy is we must use computer models

想了解前工業社會的雲量狀況 就必須用電腦模型輔助

that reliably simulate the process is responsible for forming nuclei in clouds.

模擬雲裡的形核過程

Now, to most people aerosols are the things to make your hair stick.

在許多人眼中 氣溶膠就等於髮膠

But that’s only one type of aerosols.

但髮膠只是氣溶膠的一種

Atmospheric aerosols are tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the air.

煙霧質常以微小的液體或固態形式懸浮於大氣中

There are either primary from dust sea spray salt, burning biomass

第一種主要存在於灰塵、海水、餘燼裡

Or secondary formed by gas to particle conversion in the atmosphere

第二種是氣體轉換成粒子的產物

Also known as particle nucleation.

又稱為粒子核化

Aerosols are everywhere in the atmosphere. And they can block out the sun and polluted urban environments.

大氣中充滿了煙霧質 它們會阻擋太陽光、汙染都市環境

Or bath distant mountain in blue pace.

或讓遠處山峰染上藍霧

More importantly the cloud droplet cannot form without an aerosol particle seed.

雲是由煙霧質分子組成的

So without aerosol particle, there’ll be no clouds.

沒有煙霧質 就沒有雲

And without clouds, there will be no fresh water.

沒有雲 就沒有淡水

The climate will be much hotter. And there will be no life.

沒有淡水 天氣會越來越熱 生物就會隨之滅絕

So we owe our existence to aerosol particles.

有煙霧質分子才有你我的存在

However, despite their importance how aerosol particles form in the atmosphere

雖然煙霧質在大氣中的形成很重要

aren’t very effect on clouds and poorly understood.

雲層隱含的意義、

Even the vapor is responsible for aerosol particle formation and not well established.

蒸氣就能產生煙霧質的道理 卻沒什麼人知道

Because at present in only might mute amount near one molecule per million million molecules are there.

現在大氣中的煙霧質極少 濃度是一萬億分之一

This lack of understanding is the main reason for the large uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

缺乏的雲層認識 是無法掌握氣候敏感性的主因

And the corresponding wild range of future climate projections.

連帶影響到氣候預測

However, an experiment under way is certain named surprisingly cloud has manage to build a steel vessel

有個名為「驚人雲朵」的實驗正在進行中

That’s large enough and has low enough contamination that aerosol formation can

他們用龐大的鋼鐵量筒 去掉裡頭雜質 在人為環境下

For the first time, be measured under tightly controlled atmosphere condition in the bar of tray.

初次測量到了煙霧質的量

In the first five years of operation, cloud has identified the vapor

研究的頭五年 科學家發現雲就是蒸氣

responsible for the aerosol formation in the atmosphere.

可以影響大氣中煙霧質的構造

Which includes sulfuric acid, ammonia amines and biogenic vapours from trees.

煙霧質包括: 硫酸、氨、胺、從樹而來的生物蒸氣

Using an eye and icing particle bean for the certain proton synchrotron

使用質子同步加速器 以冰粒子的觀點來看

Cloud is also investigating if galactic cosmic rays enhance the formation of aerosols in clouds.

雲層也可用來探索銀河宇宙線是否會鞏固雲裡的氣膠結構

This has been suggested as possible unaccounted natural climate forcing agent

有人說宇宙射線可能是影響氣候的天然媒介

since the flux of cause midgrade raining down in the atmosphere.

因為大氣層裡的豐沛雨量

There is with solar activity.

會和太陽互相作用

So cloud is addressing two big questions:

由「雲」可以衍伸出兩個問題:

Firstly, how cloudy was the pre-industrial climate?

前工業時期有多少雲?

And hence, how much have clouds changed due to human activities?

人類活動又對那些雲有什麼影響?

That knowledge will help sharpen climate projections in the 21st century.

尋求這兩個解答 將能更精準預測本世紀的氣候變化

And simply, could the puzzling observation of solar climate variability in the pre-industrial

觀察前工業時代氣候與太陽變化得到的複雜結果

be explained by an influence of galactic cosmic rays on the clouds?

是否可用銀河宇宙線對雲層的影響來解釋?

Ambitious but realistic goals, when your heads in the clouds

探究雲層 追求更加偉大、實際的目標