In association with Post Carbon Institute

There's No Tomorrow

This is the earth,

as it looked 90 million years ago.

Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.

It was a time of extreme global warming,

When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.

They went about their lives,

secure in their place at the top of the food chain,

oblivious of the changes taking place around them.

The continents were drifting apart,

opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.

They flooded, becoming seas.

Algae thrived in the extreme heat,

poisoning the water.

They died,

and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.

Rivers washed sediment into the seas,

until the organic remains of the algae were buried.

As the pressure grew, so did the heat,

until a chemical reaction transformed the organics

into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:

Oil and Natural Gas.

A similar process occurred on land,

which produced coal.

It took nature about 5 million years

to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.

The modern way of life

is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,

although a surprising number of people take it for granted.

Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.

Since then, the world has used approximately half.

Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.

At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.

The first great American oilfield was Spindletop,

discovered in 1900

Many more followed.

Geologists scoured America.

They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.

America produced more oil than any other country,

enabling it to become an industrial super-power.

Once an oil well starts producing oil,

it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.

Individual wells have different production rates.

When many wells are averaged together,

the combined graph looks like a bell curve.

Typically

it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery

for a country to reach its peak of production,

after which it enters a permanent fall.

In the 1950s,

Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert

predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,

40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.

Few believed him.

However, in 1970,

American oil production peaked,

and entered a permanent decline.

Hubbert was vindicated.

From this point on,

America would depend increasingly on imported oil.

This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,

and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973

and 1979 oil shocks.

The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.

In spite of advanced technology,

the decline in the discovery of new American oilfields has been relentless.

More recent finds, such as ANWAR,

would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.

Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico

would only supply a few months of domestic demand.

Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying

America's energy requirements.

Evidence is now mounting

that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.

Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.

Over 40 years later,

the decline in the discovery of new fields

seems unstoppable.

54 of the 65 major oil producing nations

have already peaked in production.

Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.

The world will need to bring the equivalent

of a new Saudi Arabia into production

every three years

to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.

In the nineteen sixties,

six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.

Four decades later,

the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil

for every one that it finds.

Once the peak of world oil production is reached,

demand for oil will outstrip supply,

and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,

affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.

Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

Even roads are made from asphalt,

a petroleum product,

as are the roofs of many homes.

Large areas would be uninhabitable

without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.

Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles

to work, school and stores.

Major cities have been zoned with residential

and commercial areas placed far apart,

forcing people to drive.

Suburbia, and many communities

were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.

Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,

or Petro-chemicals,

are essential in the manufacture of countless products.

The modern system of agriculture

is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,

as are hospitals,

aviation,

water distribution systems,

and the U.S. military,

which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.

Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,

key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.

The global economy currently depends on endless growth,

demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.

We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,

that even a small disruption in supply

may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.

ENERGY

Energy is the ability to do work.

The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.

Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,

Some fuels contain more energy than others.

This is called energy density.

Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.

The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,

equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,

which contains as much energy

as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants

working for the next 50 years.

Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,

it powers 96% of all transportation.

In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.

Most was from Canada,

Mexico,

Saudi Arabia,

Venezuela,

Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.

Several factors make oil unique:

it is energy dense.

One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent

of almost three years of human labour.

It is liquid at room temperature,

easy to transport

and usable in small engines.

To acquire energy, you have to use energy.

The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.

This is called EROEI:

Energy Return on Energy Invested.

Conventional oil is a good example.

The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.

Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.

The EROEI of oil was 100.

As the easy to find oil was pumped first,

exploration moved into deep waters,

or distant countries,

using increasing amounts of energy to do so.

Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,

and is expensive to refine.

The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.

If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,

it's not worth the effort to get it.

It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.

Every time you do so,

some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.

For instance, there is unconventional oil:

Tar Sands and Shale.

Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

reducing their EROEI,

which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

pound for pound containing about one third the energy

of a box of breakfast cereal.

Coal exists in vast quantities,

and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

causing environmental mayhem.

Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

and production peaked in the early 70s.

If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

is revealed.

Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

Even with Unconventional gas,

there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

in France and Japan

have been expensive failures.

Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

Then there are the renewables.

Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

Hydro power is reliable,

but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

Conventional geothermal power plants

use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

They are limited to those areas.

In the experimental EGS system,

two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

then rise up the other, generating power.

According to a recent MIT report,

this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

Biodiesel and ethanol

are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

would require 3% of America's Land.

To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

as two coal power plants.

The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.