Name: 越南商業景氣逆勢挺住！全球動盪中的堅韌力量｜越南今日 (Bizline: Vietnam's trade sector proves resilient in a volatile global | Vietnam Today)
Uploaded: 2026-01-07T04:47:27.000Z
Duration: 18 min 24 s

2025 has been a turbulent year for global trade.

2025年對全球貿易來說，是充滿動盪的一年。

關稅又重回主要政策工具的行列。

Trade remedies are rising and global demand remains volatile.

貿易救濟措施正在增加，全球需求依然波動。

Yet Vietnam's export sector continues to defy expectations.

然而，越南的出口部門持續超出預期。

Total trade turnover reached a record, exports maintained strong growth, and

整體貿易額創下新高，出口維持強勁增長，

the country recorded another year of trade surplus.

那麼，是什麼解釋了這種韌性呢？

And as tariff risks intensify, how well positions Vietnam to sustain its export momentum in 2026?

隨著關稅風險加劇，越南在2026年能否維持其出口動能？

And these are the main focus of this week's peace line.

這也是本週「和平線」節目要探討的重點。

In 2025, Vietnam's export turnover reached US$470.59 billion, up 15.9% year on year.

2025年，越南出口額達4705.9億美元，年同比增長15.9%。

And a notable increase at a time when global demand has yet to recover fully.

而且這是在全球需求尚未完全復甦時出現的顯著增長。

An estimated 36 out of 45 product groups recorded export values exceeding US$1 billion.

估計有 45 個產品類別中的 36 個出口價值超過 10 億美元。

Notably, the top 10 export categories all posted positive growth.

值得注意的是，排名前 10 的出口類別均實現了正增長。

Exports of computers, electronics products and components were estimated at US$106 billion, surging 46% compared with 2024.

電腦、電子產品及零組件的出口額估計為 1,060 億美元，與 2024 年相比飆升 46%。

And this also marked the first time Vietnam recorded an export category US$100 billion.

這也標誌著越南首次有出口類別達到 1,000 億美元。

And in 2025, exports of fruit and vegetable and seafood reached US$19.8 billion of nearly 15.2% from the previous year.

而在 2025 年，水果、蔬菜和海產品的出口額達到 198 億美元，較前一年增長近 15.2%。

This performance reflects not merely a cyclical recovery, but

這一表現不僅反映了週期性的復甦，

also substantive improvements in processing and capacity, quality controls, traceability and compliance with green standards.

還反映了加工和產能、品質控制、可追溯性以及符合綠色標準方面的實質性改進。

However, from an overall perspective, the export structure has yet to undergo a steep change as the FDI sector continues to account for the majority of export value.

然而，從總體來看，出口結構尚未發生巨大變化，外商直接投資部門仍佔出口價值的大部分。

While export turnover has risen rapidly, deeper structural upgrading remains a key challenge.

儘管貿易額快速增長，但更深層次的結構升級仍然是一個關鍵挑戰。

And joining us Today is our two experts offering complimentary perspectives on Vietnam's export performance.

今天我們邀請到兩位專家，為我們提供對越南出口表現的互補觀點。

Le Sui Binh is chief Economist at Economika Vietnam.

瑞賓博士是 Economika Vietnam 的首席經濟學家。

He is a well known economist specializing in macroeconomic analysis, trade structures and policy evaluations.

他是一位知名的經濟學家，專精於總體經濟分析、貿易結構和政策評估。

And also with us is Antony Liefschneider, head of law firm Luthor Vietnam.

同時與我們同在的還有 Antony Liefschneider，他是 Luthor Vietnam 律師事務所的負責人。

He is an international trade and investment law specialist who has advised multinational companies in operating in Vietnam on tariff trade remedies and regulatory compliance across major export markets.

他是一位國際貿易和投資法律專家，曾就關稅貿易救濟措施和主要出口市場的監管合規性，為在越南營運的跨國公司提供諮詢。

Thank you both our guests for joining our program today.

非常感謝兩位貴賓今天來到我們的節目。

In 2025, Vietnam total trade turnover still reached around US$920 billion with exports maintaining strong growth and a continuous trade surplus.

2025 年，越南的總體貿易額仍達到約 9200 億美元，出口保持強勁增長，並持續享有貿易順差。

What does this tell us about the underlying resilience of Vietnam export sector?

這告訴我們越南出口部門的潛在韌性如何？

After Li Zhu Bing, the record jet turnover has proven that the tariff has not been that bad.

李博士，創紀錄的出口額證明瞭關稅並沒有那麼糟糕。

But we should give this credit to the business community and also the policymaker in Vietnam as well.

不過，這也要歸功於越南的企業界和政策制定者。

The policymaker Regulators Management Agency has been very fast in negotiating with the US Government, the US Administration, in order to have such a tariff.

政策制定者管理機構與美國政府、美國行政部門協商，速度非常快，才能制定出這樣的關稅。

And the business community has been very fast in responding and been preparing for the tariff.

而企業界也迅速做出回應，並為關稅做好了準備。

And the business community has been able to respond to the recovery of the market.

企業界已經能夠應對市場的復甦。

So the resilience of business has been improved.

Yes, I believe that underscoring the entire year 2025 is a key word, resilience, not a calm year on a global scale.

是的，我認為貫穿 2025 年的關鍵詞是「韌性」，而不是一個全球性的平靜之年。

We saw geopolitical problems, we saw trade disputes, and

我們看到了地緣政治問題，看到了貿易爭端，

we saw shipping disruptions and very rapid policy changes, especially coming from the US but also other areas of the world.

還看到了運輸中斷以及非常快速的政策變動，特別是來自美國，但也包括世界其他地區。

And still Vietnam was quite successful, not only maintaining but even expanding its export growth.

而越南表現依然相當成功，不僅維持甚至擴大了出口成長。

So that's not only a coincidence, that is the consequence of planning and structure.

所以這不是巧合，而是規劃和結構的結果。

So I believe that those are the core components of Vietnam's success.

所以我相信這些是越南成功的核心要素。

And Vietnam has done very well over the past decade to build scale diversification and also operational discipline.

越南過去十年來在建立規模、多元化以及營運紀律方面做得非常出色。

And that comes in as a very reliable foundation for Vietnam's success in 2025 and probably also beyond.

這為越南在 2025 年及以後的成功奠定了非常可靠的基礎。

This company exports rice to markets across Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle east, primarily by sea freight.

這家公司主要透過海運將稻米出口到亞洲、非洲、歐洲和中東的市場。

When instability erupted in the Middle east, ocean freight rates to the region as well as to Africa and the EU rose by 30 to 40%.

當中東爆發不穩定局勢時，往返該地區以及非洲和歐盟的海運費率上漲了 30% 至 40%。

Many customers either postponed deliveries or requested faster shipment schedules.

許多客戶延後了交貨時間，或要求加快裝運時程。

As a logistics service provider, this company has also been affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

作為一家物流服務供應商，這家公司也受到了中東衝突的影響。

One of its export consignments was forced to remain grounded for two days at a transit airport in Qatar after the country closed its airspace.

其中一批出口貨物在卡達關閉領空後，被迫滯留在卡達的轉運機場兩天。

As a result, for cargo that does not require rapid delivery, the company has adopted alternative solutions.

是以，對於不需要快速運送的貨物，這家公司已經採取了替代方案。

Another challenge facing Vietnamese exporters is the reciprocal tariff policy of the United States.

越南出口商面臨的另一個挑戰是美國的互惠關稅政策。

Many businesses have taken advantage of the temporary tariff suspension period to accelerate production and exports.

許多企業利用了暫停關稅的期間來加速生產和出口。

Schneiders, as we know, export growth in 2025 was largely driven by electronics, machinery and technology related products.

正如我們所知，2025 年的出口成長主要由電子、機械和科技相關產品帶動。

And as we move into 2026, which data signals will tell us whether this technology lead growth can be sustained?

進入 2026 年，哪些數據信號將告訴我們這種科技領先的成長能否持續？

I believe already before 2025, we saw a change in Vietnam's manufacturing output.

我相信在 2025 年之前，我們就已經看到越南製造業產出發生了變化。

This is again the result of strategic planning and positioning the right policies and reshaping the legal framework to attract higher quality investment.

這也是戰略規劃、制定正確政策以及重塑法律框架以吸引更高品質投資的結果。

So Vietnam is not only exporting more stuff, more merchandise.

所以越南不僅出口更多東西、更多商品。

It's not just about scaling the quantity, but it's also about quality.

這不只是數量上的擴張，更是品質的提升。

Now Vietnam is exporting know how and skills that are ingrained in the products that leave the country to go overseas.

現在越南出口的是那些隨著產品一同出海的專業知識和技術。

Electronics and machinery, I believe, are going to continue growing in 2026 because that's what the world demands.

我認為，電子產品和機械在 2026 年將持續成長，因為這正是全球的需求。

And Vietnam is now able, not only able to make it, but

to compete with other countries in making those products.

還能與其他國家在製造這些產品上競爭。

So it is time for domestic enterprise to play a strong role in development is Palm.

所以，現在是國內企業在發展中扮演重要角色的時候了。

So I think that when we realize that it is time, it is high time for domestic enterprise, Vietnamese enterprise to to partition themselves in the Changoron and the places Changoron.

所以，我認為當我們意識到是時候了，是時候讓國內企業，越南企業參與到長榮和長榮的所在地。

I think that then in the year to come, I hope that domestic enterprise will place increasingly more important drones in the turnover of the exporter to other countries.

我認為，在未來幾年，我希望國內企業能在出口到其他國家的貿易額中扮演越來越重要的角色。

Now, with tariff risk and trade remedies likely to remain elevated in 2026, how are multinational exporters in Vietnam adjusting their legal sourcing and and operational strategy just stay competitive and compliant across major markets?

那麼，隨著 2026 年關稅風險和貿易救濟措施可能持續居高不下，越南的跨國出口商將如何調整他們的法律採購和營運策略，以在主要市場保持競爭力和合規性？

I think it's still all about de risking and de risking in these very moving times is about diversification and of course anticipation.

我認為重點還是在於降低風險，而在這些變動劇烈的時代，降低風險就是要多元化，當然也要有預見性。

Depending on what industry you're in and the scale and size of your business and where else in the world you operate operationally, it means that you have to redesign supply chains to be tariff aware, not tariff reactive.

取決於您所在的產業、企業的規模大小，以及您在全球其他地方的營運據點，這意味著您必須重新設計供應鏈，讓它們能「意識到關稅」，而不是「對關稅做出反應」。

Because you don't know what is going to happen tomorrow.

因為您不知道明天會發生什麼。

So you're going to have to prepare for the worst and be very flexible and quick in reacting to these developments as they transpire.

所以您必須為最壞的情況做好準備，並且在這些發展出現時，能非常靈活且快速地應對。

After just around two years of operating in Vietnam, this company has exported more than 1.5 million laptop units to Apple with a total value of nearly US$2.1 billion this year.

這家公司在越南營運僅約兩年，今年已向 Apple 出口超過 150 萬臺筆記型電腦，總價值近 21 億美元。

This figure is double the company's export turnover over the same period in 2024, underscoring the strong momentum of the high tech manufacturing and export investment wave in Vietnam.

這個數字是該公司 2024 年同期出口額的兩倍，突顯了越南高科技製造業和出口投資浪潮的強勁動能。

Computers, electronic products and components remain Vietnam's largest export category, accounting for 22.6% of total export turnover and continuing to serve as one of the most important drivers of export growth.

電腦、電子產品及零組件仍是越南最大的出口類別，佔總出口額的 22.6%，並持續成為出口增長最重要的驅動因素之一。

Vietnam's export turnover reached a record high in 2025, reflecting the growing production capacity and improved ability of Vietnamese enterprises to meet high international standards.

越南的出口額在 2025 年創下歷史新高，反映了越南企業不斷增長的生產能力以及符合國際高標準的能力的提升。

As Vietnamese businesses increasingly master technology better complying with international standards and expand exp exports, especially to demanding markets.

隨著越南企業越來越熟練掌握技術，更好地遵守國際標準並擴大出口，特別是銷往要求嚴苛的市場。

Exports are no longer merely a short term growth driver, but

出口不再只是短期的成長動能，

are steadily becoming a core foundation of Vietnam's long term competitiveness.

而且正穩健地成為越南長期競爭力的核心基礎。

Which macro level stabilizers will be the most critical in sustaining Vietnam's export performance?

哪些總體經濟的穩定器對於維持越南的出口表現最為關鍵？

As global trade conditions remain volatile, we look at South Korea, look at Singapore, we look at Japan, Germany after World War they all start to be very low value Products to export and also to starting from low.

隨著全球貿易條件持續波動，我們看看南韓、看看新加坡、看看日本，德國在二戰後，它們都從出口非常低價值的產品開始，也是從低開始。

But what makes them different is that they didn't stay there for long.

但讓它們與眾不同的是，它們並沒有停留在原地太久。

They realized that that is only a stage of development.

它們意識到那只是一個發展階段。

And they move very fast into the next phase of development.

而且它們很快就進入了下一個發展階段。

That is development that is based on technology, that is based on knowledge, that is based on innovation.

那是基於科技、基於知識、基於創新的發展。

also moving up to brand and also to research and development, concept development, to distribution, to marketing, to value added through branding, through marketing and through many other stage of development later moving up at the higher part of the global supply chain.

還要向上發展品牌，還有研發、概念開發、通路、行銷，透過品牌、透過行銷以及許多其他後續發展階段，向上移動到全球供應鏈的更高層級。

And all this help them to position themselves in a very strong positions as they are now.

這一切都幫助他們現在處於非常強大的地位。

So we learn from this that is approach that we have to accept at the beginning.

所以我們從中學到，這是一個我們一開始就必須接受的方法。

Low level of the global supply chain, assembly and things.

全球供應鏈的低階，組裝等等。

Tax policy is important, but it's not the most important one.

稅收政策很重要，但不是最重要的。

What is more important, that is a business environment that is favorable, that is enabling for business to invest, especially invest into efficiency, to invest into productivity, invest into technology, invest into human capital.

更重要的是，營造一個有利於企業投資的商業環境，特別是投資於效率、生產力、技術和人力資本。

Investing into capital that is needed for the development, investing into the human, investing in research and development.

投資於發展所需的資本，投資於人力，投資於研發。

So these are much more important than ducks.

Seafood is one of Vietnam's key export sectors.

海鮮是越南重要的出口部門之一。

But the lack of productivity in many businesses is becoming increasing increasingly apparent.

但許多企業生產力不足的問題越來越明顯。

Despite exports reaching hundreds of markets, many companies remain reactive and dependent on importer orders.

儘管出口遍及數百個市場，許多公司仍然是被動的，依賴進口商的訂單。