by 50 percent in the next three decades.

將世界各地暴亂的死亡人數 降低 50 %，

All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,

我們要做的就是 讓他殺死亡率每年下降 2.3 %，

and we'll hit that target.

然後我們就能達標了。

You don't believe me?

你不相信我嗎？

Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world

世界上首屈一指的 流行病學和犯罪學專家們

seem to think we can, and so do I,

似乎認為我們行的，我也是一樣，

but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.

前提是假使我們看緊我們的城市， 尤其是最脆弱的這一些。

You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.

我一直在關心這個問題，

For the last 20 years, I've been working

過去 20 年來，我工作的國家和城市

in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,

充斥著衝突、動亂或恐怖主義，

violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.

甚者樣樣皆有；

I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,

我曾經由俄羅斯到索馬利亞 追蹤過軍火走私者、

I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,

與阿富汗以及剛果的軍閥共事過、

I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.

在哥倫比亞、海地、斯里蘭卡、 巴布亞紐幾內亞等地計算過屍體。

You don't need to be on the front line, though,

縱使你不在第一線上

to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?

也會感覺到地球正迅速失控吧，

There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.

感覺到國際動盪是新常態。

But I want you to take a closer look,

不過請大家仔細觀察，

and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,

就會發現暴亂的地理位置正在改變，

because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime

因為深陷衝突和犯罪的 並不是我們的國家，

as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.

而是城市：阿勒坡、巴馬科、加拉加斯、 埃比爾、摩蘇爾、的黎波里、薩爾瓦多。

Violence is migrating to the metropole.

暴力正向大都市遷移。

And maybe this is to be expected, right?

也許這是預料中之事，對吧？

After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.

畢竟現今絕大多數人住在城市 而不是鄉間，

Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.

600個城市——包括30個巨型城市， 就佔了全球GDP的三分之二。

But when it comes to cities,

不過當說到城市的時候，

the conversation is dominated by the North,

話題大都由北部地區主導，

that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,

所謂北部地區， 是指北美、西歐、澳洲和日本，

where violence is actually at historic lows.

這些地方暴動確實是史上的低點；

As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,

因此，城市的熱衷者聊的是 城市的勝利、創新階級的勝利、

of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.

說市長們將會管治世界。

Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,

我希望市長們有天真會管治這世界，

but, you know, the fact is,

不過事實是

we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.

我們沒有真正地聽到 南部地區的聲音和形勢。

And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,

所謂南部地區，我是指 拉丁美洲、非洲、亞洲

where violence in some cases is accelerating,

在這些地方，暴力不斷加劇，

where infrastructure is overstretched,

基礎建設過度匱乏、

and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.

治理有時候只是抱負而非實事。

Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,

目前，一些外交官、 發展專家、專業人士在關注

they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states

會決定21世紀安全的 四五十個脆弱城市。

that will shape security in the 21st century.

會決定21世紀安全的 四五十個脆弱城市。

I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.

我認為：這些脆弱城市 會直接決定未來的秩序和穩定。

That's because warfare and humanitarian action

因為戰爭和人道救助行動

are going to be concentrated in our cities,

即將要匯聚到我們的城市裡，

and the fight for development,

為發展而起的鬥爭，

whether you define that as eradicating poverty,

無論是消滅貧窮、

universal healthcare, beating back climate change,

普及醫療保健，還是擊退氣候變化，

will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.

成敗關鍵都在城市中的破屋、殘樓、貧民窟。

I want to talk to you about four megarisks

我要跟你們講四項巨大風險，

that I think will define fragility in our time,

我認為將會決定這時代的脆弱性，

and if we can get to grips with these,

倘若我們能夠處理這些風險，

I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.

我們就可以解決致命暴力問題。

So let me start with some good news.

那麼我們先由好消息談起。

Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.

事實是我們正處在 人類歷史中最和平的時候，

Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict

「司提芬•朋克」等人表明 現今衝突的強度和頻率

is actually at an all-time low.

實際上處於史上低點，

Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,

目前迦薩、敘利亞、蘇丹、烏克蘭

as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,

這些國家的衝突可怕恐怖，

they represent a relatively small blip upwards

在暴力持續下降50年之後，

in a 50-year-long secular decline.

現階段的暴力 只是一個相對較小的往上攀升的點。

What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.

再者是我們看到了謀殺大量的減少，

Manuel Eisner and others have shown

「曼紐沃‧艾斯納」等人證實了

that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,

我們看到數世紀以來 謀殺令人無法置信般地減少，

especially in the West.

特別是在西方，

Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.

今天大多數的北方城市比 100 年前 還要更安全著 100 倍，

These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --

武裝衝突減少了， 謀殺犯罪減少了，

are amongst the most extraordinary,

也許曠古未有，

if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,

是人類歷史最了不起的成就，

and we should be really excited, right?

我們應該為此感到興奮，對吧？

Well, yeah, we should.

沒錯是要的。

There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.

就只有一個問題： 這兩項災禍始終還不放過我們。

You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --

知道嗎，每年有52.5萬人，

die violently every single year.

不分男女老少，慘死於暴力，

Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others

我與凱斯‧克勞斯等人 做的研究指出

has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.

介於五至六萬人慘死於戰爭區，

The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.

其餘大約50萬人死於衝突區域之外。

In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.

換言之，十倍之多人死於戰爭外 而非其中，

What's more, violence is moving south,

更甚者是暴亂往南方移動，

to Latin America and the Caribbean,

來到拉丁美洲和加勒比海、

to parts of Central and Southern Africa,

非洲中部及南部的地方、

and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.

又襲擊到中東和中亞。

Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world

世界上五十個最危險的城市，

are right here in Latin America,

有四十個正是在拉丁美洲這邊；

13 in Brazil,

十三個在巴西，

and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,

當中最危險的是宏都拉斯的 第二大城市「聖佩德羅蘇拉」，

with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.

有著非常駭人的謀殺率， 每一萬人就有 187 人死於他殺，

That's 23 times the global average.

是世界平均值的23倍。

Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,

如果暴力正在重新地理定位，

it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,

它亦正按世界新地形 重新定形，

because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,

因為對於城市來說， 地球不是平的，

like Thomas Friedman likes to say.

就像湯瑪士‧佛烈曼常說。

It's spiky.

世界是尖的。

The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living

城市至上 成為了城市生活主要方式，

is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,

這是歷史上最不尋常的人口結構逆轉之一，

and it all happened so fast.

而且這全都發生得太快，

You all know the figures, right?

大家都知道這些數字，對吧？

There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;

今天世界上有73億人，

there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.

到2050年世界將有96億人。

But consider this one fact:

不過請考量這個事實，

In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,

在十九世紀，30個人當中 有1個人是住在城市裡，

today it's one in two,

在今天每兩人中會有一個是住在都市裡，

and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.

未來肯定是每個人都會住在都市裡；

And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.

城市化的擴張 既不會均等，也不會公平。

The vast majority, 90 percent,

90%的城市變遷擴張

will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.

會發生在南部地區， 在南部的城市。

So urban geographers and demographers,

所以都市地理學和人口統計學的學者們

they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities

告訴我們：一個城市的大小或密度

that predicts violence, no.

不一定會造成暴力，不一定。

Tokyo, with 35 million people,

東京有三千五百萬人口，

is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.

是最大的、有些人還可能會說是 最安全的都會型城市之一。

No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.

都市化的速度才是關鍵，

I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.

我叫它「渦輪式都市化」， 這是脆弱的關鍵導因之一，

When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,

當你在想這些城市不合理的擴張、

and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.

想想看「渦輪都市化」， 想一下喀拉蚩吧，

Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.

喀拉蚩在1947年約有50萬人， 是一個繁忙的城市。

Today, it's 21 million people,

今天它有兩千一百萬人口，

and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,

佔有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四，

it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.

它還是南亞最暴亂的城市之一。

Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,

達卡、拉哥斯、金夏沙等，

these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.

這些城市比起 1950 年時要大40倍；

Now take a look at New York.

現在來看看紐約，

The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.

「大蘋果」用了150 年才有八百萬人，

São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.

墨西哥的聖保羅市花了 15 年達到一樣的人口級距，

Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?

如今這些中型、大型、巨型， 以及超級城市是怎麼樣貌呢?

What is their profile?

這些城市是什麼樣子？

Well, for one thing, they're young.

首先，這些城市都很年輕。

What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.

許多這些城市都出現年輕人口膨脹。

Now, this is actually a good news story.

這算是好消息。

It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.

因為這意味著幼兒死亡率下降了。

But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.

但是年輕人口膨脹，我們得小心看待。

What it basically means

它基本上代表麼呢?

is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities

生活在脆弱城市中的年輕人比例

is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.

比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。

In some fragile cities,

在某些脆弱的城市裡，

75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.

75%人口年齡在30歲以下，

Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.

想想看每 4 個人就有 3 個人不到 30 歲，

It's like Palo Alto on steroids.

那就像是打了類固醇的「帕羅奧圖」市 (美國加州之城市)

Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,

看看摩加迪休——東非索馬利首都

in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.

在摩加迪休，平均年齡是16歲，

Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.

達卡、帝力、喀布爾等也是如此，

And Tokyo? It's 46.

東京呢？平均年齡46歲！

Same for most Western European cities.

大部分西歐城市亦一樣。

Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.

不是年輕人多就會帶來暴力。

That's one factor among many,

那是許多因素的其中一項，

but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,

但如果年輕，再加上失業、缺乏教育，

and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.

最要不得的是作為男性， 這是一個最致命的前提，

They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,

這些因素都是統計學上的相關因素

and they tend to relate to increases in violence.

這些風險因素發生在青年身上， 會使暴力發生率上升。

Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,

在座如果有兒子處於青少年階段，

you know what I'm talking about, right?

就會懂我的意思。

Just imagine your boy without any structure

想像你的男孩一點規矩也沒有，

with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.

與那些不受管束的朋友一起， 四處闖鬧。

Now, take away the parents,

再想像他們沒有了父母，

take away the education, limit the education possibilities,

沒有受到教育， 教育機會受到限制，

sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,

加一點毒品、酒水、槍械進來，

and sit back and watch the fireworks.

想想他們會變成什麼樣子。

The implications are disconcerting.

後果可能是不堪設想的。

Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.

在巴西這邊 預期壽命是73.6歲，

If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.

如果你住在里約熱內盧的話 抱歉，減兩歲。

But if you're young, you're uneducated,

但是如果你是年輕人、沒唸過書、

you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,

找不到工作、黑人、又是男性，

your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.

你的預期壽命要下降到60歲以下，

There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers

年輕和暴力是這個國家的頭號殺手，

in this country.

這是有原因的。

Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.

我們的城市並不全然都是厄運和絕望，

After all, cities are hubs of innovation,

畢竟城市是創新的溫床，

dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.

充滿活力、前景、刺激、人際關係。

They're where the smart people gather.

它們是有腦筋的人的聚集之地，

And those young people I just mentioned,

還有那些我剛提到的年輕人，

they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.

他們比以前所有的人還要 更精通數位、瞭解科技，

And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,

科技爆炸、網路、移動通信技術

means that the digital divide separating the North and the South

使南北部地區國家之間的 數位技術差異逐步縮小，

between countries and within them, is shrinking.

也使國內的數碼技術差異 逐步縮小。

But as we've heard so many times,

不過就如同我們常聽到的，

these new technologies are dual-edged, right?

這些新科技是雙面刃，

Take the case of law enforcement.

拿執法來舉例。

Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data

全球的警察開始使用 遙感技術和海量數據來預測犯罪。

to anticipate crime.

一些警察能夠在犯罪發生前 就預測到罪犯的暴力行為。

Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.

將來犯罪的場景， 今天可以預見，

The future crime scenario, it's here today,

我們得要小心注意，

and we've got to be careful.

我們必須協調好公共安全問題

We have to manage the issues of the public safety

防止個人隱私權利受到侵害。

against rights to individual privacy.

不過不只是警察們在革新，

But it's not just the cops who are innovating.

我們也聽過社會公民團體卓越的行動，

We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups

參與了當地和國際串聯行動，

who are engaging in local and global collective action,

那帶來了數位化的抗議和真實的革命。

and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.

不過最令人擔憂的是

But most worrying of all are criminal gangs

犯罪團體利用網絡 開始侵略網絡空間。

who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.

在我工作的墨西哥華雷斯城，

In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working,

像是「賽塔斯」和「錫那羅亞」 這些卡特爾組織團體

groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel

正控制著社群媒體，

are hijacking social media.

他們利用社交媒體來招兵買馬， 販賣他們的產品，

They're using it to recruit, to sell their products,

脅迫、恐嚇和殺害他人。

to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.

暴亂正要進入虛擬化，

Violence is going virtual.

現今形勢多變複雜

So this is just a partial sketch

這不過是其中一面。

of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.

巨大風險還有許多，

I mean, there are many other megarisks

並且會直接影響我們時代的脆弱性，

that are going to define fragility in our time,

也會影響當今的收入不均、

not least income inequality,

貧窮、氣候變化、 罪犯逍遙法外等問題。

poverty, climate change, impunity.

但我們面臨著一個嚴峻的窘境：

But we're facing a stark dilemma

有些城市會繁榮發展 促進全球的進步，

where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth

但也有城市會障礙重重 拉大家的後腿。

and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.

想要改變結局， 我們就必需開始新對話，

If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation.

我們不能只注重那些成功的城市：

We can't only focus on those cities that work,

像新加坡、吉隆坡、

the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,

杜拜、上海等等，

the Dubais, the Shanghais.

我們要與脆弱城市對話。

We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.

方法之一可以是

One way to do this might be to start twinning

將我們較健康富有的城市 與較脆弱的城市配對，

our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,

展開學習與合作的過程，

kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration

分享經驗，成功與失敗的經驗。

and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't.

一個很好的例子是 薩爾瓦多和洛杉磯。

A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,

聖薩爾瓦多市長和洛杉磯市長攜手合作

where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating

讓從前的幫派份子與 現在的幫派份子協力合作，

on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,

給予他們引導與教育，

offering tutoring, education,

在這個過程中幫助催生了 停火和休戰協定，

and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,

聖薩爾瓦多的兇殺率顯著下降了，

and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,

過去世界上最暴力的城市， 兇殺率下降五成。

once the world's most violent city,

我們也可以關注熱門城市、熱門地點。

by 50 percent.

地點對城市暴力形成有著根本影響。

We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.

你是否知道在任一脆弱城市裡

Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.

1 - 2%的街道地址

Did you know that between one and two percent