"I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."

「我從不去想未來——它來得夠快。」

And he was right, of course.

當然，他是對的。

So today, I'm here to ask you to think of

所以今天，我在這邀請大家一起來思考

how the future is happening now.

如何從此刻預見未來。

Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced

過去兩百年來，世界已經歷了

two major waves of innovation.

兩波巨大的革新浪潮：

First, the Industrial Revolution

第一個，是工業革命。

brought us machines and factories, railways,

它帶給我們機器、工廠、鐵路、

electricity, air travel,

電力、航空飛行，

and our lives have never been the same.

使得我們的生活劇烈改變。

Then the Internet revolution

再來是網路革命，

brought us computing power, data networks,

它帶給我們速算能力、資料系統、

unprecedented access

以及前所未有的

to information and communication,

資訊來源和溝通方式，

and our lives have never been the same.

而我們的生活不再與從前相同。

Now we are experiencing

現在，我們正經歷著

another metamorphic change:

另一項蛻變——

the industrial Internet.

也就是「工業網路」。

It brings together intelligent machines,

它融合了智慧型機器、

advanced analytics,

進階分析

and the creativity of people at work.

以及人類的創造力，

It's the marriage of minds and machines.

它是頭腦和機器的聯姻，

And our lives will never be the same.

而我們的生活將大大改變。

In my current role, I see up close

以我現在的角色，我緊密觀察著

how technology is beginning to transform

科技是如何開始改變那些

industrial sectors that play a huge role

在我們的經濟以及生活中

in our economy and in our lives:

都扮演重大角色的工業因素：

energy, aviation, transportation, health care.

能源、飛航、運輸，以及健康照護。

For an economist, this is highly unusual,

對一個經濟學家而言，這非比尋常，

and it's extremely exciting,

而且十分令人興奮。

because this is a transformation

因為這是一個比起工業革命，

as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,

力量有過之而無不及的改變。

and before the Industrial Revolution,

而且在工業革命前，

there was no economic growth to speak of.

世界尚未有顯著的經濟成長。

So what is this industrial Internet?

那麼這「工業網路」究竟是什麼呢？

Industrial machines are being equipped

工業機器開始配備了

with a growing number of electronic sensors

更多的電子感應器，

that allow them to see, hear, feel

使得它們能夠看到、聽到、感受到

a lot more than ever before,

得到比以前更多的訊息，

generating prodigious amounts of data.

並產生驚人的資料量。

Increasingly sophisticated analytics

接著更加複雜的分析機制

then sift through the data,

便開始過濾這些資料，

providing insights that allow us

從中提供許多訊息

to operate the machines in entirely new ways,

讓我們能用全新方式運用這些機器，

a lot more efficiently.

大幅提升效率。

And not just individual machines,

不只是單獨的機器，

but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,

連火車、飛機，

entire systems like power grids, hospitals.

甚至輸電系統、醫院內部都能跟進，

It is asset optimization and system optimization.

這是資本最大化和系統的最佳運用。

Of course, electronic sensors

當然，電子感應器

have been around for some time,

已經存在很久，

but something has changed:

但有件事卻改變了：

a sharp decline in the cost of sensors

感應器價格的大幅下跌。

and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,

並且，因為雲端運算的進步，

a rapid decrease in the cost of storing

儲存與運算資料的價格

and processing data.

都正迅速下降。

So we are moving to a world

所以我們正朝一個新世界前進，

where the machines we work with

跟我們一起工作的機器

are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.

不但有智慧，甚至才華洋溢，

They are self-aware, they are predictive,

它們會自我警覺、有預言能力，

reactive and social.

能做出反應並且還有社交能力，

It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,

它們可以是噴射引擎、 火車頭、蒸氣渦輪、

medical devices, communicating seamlessly

醫療器材，與彼此或與我們

with each other and with us.

無縫地溝通，

It's a world where information itself

這將會是個新世界。

becomes intelligent and comes to us

資訊本身變得有智慧 並在我們需要的時候

automatically when we need it

自動朝我們而來，

without having to look for it.

而我們不需去找尋它，

We are beginning to deploy

我們正開始

throughout the industrial system

在整個工業系統內部署

embedded virtualization,

內建的虛擬化程式，

multi-core processor technology,

多核心的作業科技

advanced cloud-based communications,

先進的雲端溝通，

a new software-defined machine infrastructure

新的、構築在軟體上的機器基礎設施

which allows machine functionality

能使機器的功能

to become virtualized in software,

在軟體中被虛擬化，

decoupling machine software from hardware,

將機器的軟體型態從硬體中分離開來，

and allowing us to remotely and automatically

讓我們能夠遠端並且自動地

monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.

監控、管理，以及升級工業資本。

Why does any of this matter at all?

上述的這些到底有什麼意義呢？

Well first of all, it's already allowing us

首先，它已經使我們能夠

to shift towards preventive,

改採取有預防功用的

condition-based maintenance,

依情況而定的維修方式。

which means fixing machines

等同於在機器壞掉前

just before they break,

就把它們修復

without wasting time

而不必浪費時間

servicing them on a fixed schedule.

定期檢查它們，

And this, in turn, is pushing us towards

而這進而將我們推向

zero unplanned downtime,

零無預警故障的時代。

which means there will be no more power outages,

也就是說不再會有停電，

no more flight delays.

也不再會有誤點班機。

So let me give you a few examples

所以讓我給你們一些例子

of how these brilliant machines work,

呈現出這些聰明機器是如何運作。

and some of the examples may seem trivial,

而有些例子看似無關緊要，

some are clearly more profound,

而另有一些就明顯地比較深奧，

but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.

但它們全部都將產生強大的影響力。

Let's start with aviation.

先從航空開始吧。

Today, 10 percent of all flights

今日，有 10% 的班機取消

cancellations and delays

以及誤點情況，

are due to unscheduled maintenance events.

是因為無預警地需要維修，

Something goes wrong unexpectedly.

無法預料地，機器出了差錯，

This results in eight billion dollars in costs

這造成了全球航空產業

for the airline industry globally every year,

每年八十億美元的損失，

not to mention the impact on all of us:

更不用提對我們造成的影響：

stress, inconvenience,

壓力、不方便、錯過的會議，

missed meetings as we sit helplessly

而我們只能無助地

in an airport terminal.

坐在機場的候機大廳。

So how can the industrial Internet help here?

在此情況下，工業網路 能派上什麼用場呢？

We've developed a preventive maintenance system

我們已開發出了一個 預防性的維修系統

which can be installed on any aircraft.

能安裝在任何飛行器上，

It's self-learning and able to predict issues

它有自我學習功能，

that a human operator would miss.

且能預測到操作員可能遺漏的事件。

The aircraft, while in flight,

飛行器在飛行時

will communicate with technicians on the ground.

能和地面的技術人員溝通，

By the time it lands, they will already know

在它降落前，他們就已經知道

if anything needs to be serviced.

哪裡需要服務。

Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent

光是在美國，這樣的系統每年就能

over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,

預防超過六萬個誤點和取消班機，

helping seven million passengers

幫助七百萬個乘客

get to their destinations on time.

準時抵達目的地。

Or take healthcare.

或者，以健康照護為例，

Today, nurses spend an average

今日，護士平均每個班次

of 21 minutes per shift

要花 21 分鐘的時間

looking for medical equipment.

尋找醫療器材，

That seems trivial, but it's less time spent

這看起來瑣碎又微不足造，

caring for patients.

但占用掉的是照顧病患的時間。

St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,

座落在德州休士頓的 聖路克醫療中心

which has deployed industrial Internet technology

已經布署了工業網路的科技，

to electronically monitor and connect

電子化管理且連結

patients, staff and medical equipment,

病患、醫護人員和醫療器材，

has reduced bed turnaround times

成功減少了

by nearly one hour.

將近一小時的換床時間。

If you need surgery, one hour matters.

如果需要手術的話， 一小時可是很重要的，

It means more patients can be treated,

這代表有更多病患可接受治療，

more lives can be saved.

有更多生命可被拯救。

Another medical center, in Washington state,

另有一個在華盛頓州的醫療中心

is piloting an application that allows

正領先運用這種概念

medical images from city scanners and MRIs

讓掃描器和核磁共振所產生的影像

to be analyzed in the cloud,

能在雲端被分析，

developing better analytics

用較低的價格

at a lower cost.

發展出更好的分析學。

Imagine a patient

想像一個病患

who has suffered a severe trauma,

受到嚴重創傷，

and needs the attention of several specialists:

急需各種專家的注意：

a neurologist, a cardiologist,

神經學家、心臟病權威

an orthopedic surgeon.

以及整形外科醫生。

If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access

如果都能在病患接受掃描時

to scans and images as they are taken,

同時取得及時的圖片，

they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.

他們就能更迅速地提供治療。

So all of this translates into better health outcomes,

這一切不但意味著 更佳的健康照護成果，

but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.

也代表鉅額的經濟利益。

Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies

只要現存的效率不佳能減少 1% ，

could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars

就能在全世界的醫療產業中

to the healthcare industry worldwide,

省下超過六百億美金。

and that is just a drop in the sea

而這只是滄海一粟，

compared to what we need to do to make healthcare

要打造價格實惠的 永續發展的醫療，

affordable on a sustainable basis.

我們需要做的還有很多。

Similar advances are happening in energy,

相似的進步也正發生在能源業界，

including renewable energy.

包括可再生能源。

Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics

安裝了新型遠端遙控和 診斷器的風力發電機

that allow wind turbines to talk to each other

容許風力渦輪彼此溝通

and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way,

並彼此配合，

depending on how the wind is blowing,

依風向而定調整葉片。

can now produce electricity at a cost

這使得它們現在

of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.

能產生每度低於五分錢的電。

Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,

十年前，價格是三十分錢，

six times as much.

比起現在是六倍。

The list goes on, and it will grow fast,

這樣的例子源源不絕， 而且會快速成長，

because industrial data are now growing exponentially.

因為工業資料現在成級數成長。

By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent

2020 年以前，它們就會在數位資訊中

of all digital information.

佔據超過一半，

But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears

但這不只和資料有關， 所以讓我轉換話題

and tell you how this is impacting already

並告訴大家我們每天所做的工作

the jobs we do every day,

已經如何受到影響，

because this new wave of innovation

因為這波革新浪潮

is bringing about new tools and applications

帶給我們新的工具和應用程式

that will allow us to collaborate

使我們能

in a smarter and faster way,

以更聰明、更快的方式合作，

making our jobs not just more efficient

把我們的工作變得更有效率，

but more rewarding.

也更有回報。

Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm

想像一個維修工程師 抵達風力發電廠，

with a handheld device telling her

攜帶著一台手持裝置，

which turbines need servicing.

那裝置正告訴她 哪些渦輪需要修理，

She already has all the spare parts,

她已經準備好所有的替換零件，

because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.

因為機器的問題 都被提前診斷出來了。

And if she faces an unexpected issue,

而且假如她遇到突發狀況，

the same handheld device will allow her to

也可使用那台裝置

communicate with colleagues at the service center,

聯絡位於服務中心的同仁，

let them see what she sees,

傳輸現場影像給他們看，

transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,

傳輸資料讓他們進行診斷，

and they can stream videos that will guide her,

而他們就可以傳來指導影片，

step by step, through whatever complex procedure

無論再複雜的程序，她都能依指示

is needed to get the machines back up and running.

一步步修復，直到機器修好恢復運作。

And their interaction gets documented

而他們兩方的互動會被記錄

and stored in a searchable database.

並存檔在一個可搜尋的資料庫。

Let's stop and think about this for a minute,

讓我們停下來思考個一分鐘，

because this is a very important point.

因為這是一個很重要的點：

This new wave of innovation is fundamentally

這波革新浪潮，

changing the way we work.

正從根本處改變我們工作的方式。

And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.

而我知道你們之中有很多人 擔憂這波革新對工作帶來的影響。

Unemployment is already high,

失業率已經很高了，

and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs.

而大家總是擔心 這波革新會摧毀工作，

And innovation is disruptive.

而且它破壞性很強。

But let me stress two things here.

但讓我在此強調兩件事：

First, we've already lived through

首先，我們已經經歷了

mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry,

農業機械化以及工業自動化，

and employment has gone up,

而工作率是上升的，

because innovation is fundamentally about growth.

因為革新基本上就是著眼於成長。

It makes products more affordable.

它讓產品價格變的可負擔，

It creates new demand, new jobs.

同時產生了新需求、新工作。

Second, there is a concern that in the future,

第二，大家擔憂未來

there will only be room for engineers,

只會有工程師、資料科學家

data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.

以及其他高專業工作者的生存空間。

And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.

相信我，身為一個 經濟學者，我自己也很害怕。

But think about it:

但想想看：

Just as a child can easily figure out

即便是個孩子，

how to operate an iPad,

也能輕易上手 iPod ，

so a new generation of mobile and intuitive

所以對於各種 技術層面的工作者而言，

industrial applications will make life easier

一個隨身直觀應用科技的新時代

for workers of all skill levels.

將會使生活更加便利。

The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man

未來的工作者會更像「鋼鐵人」，

than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."

而不是《摩登時代》裡的查理·卓別林。

And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:

更確切一點，新的高技術職業將會出現：

mechanical digital engineers who understand

同時了解機器和資料的

both the machines and the data;

數位機械工程師、

managers who understand their industry

對自己產業有充分了解的經理人、

and the analytics and can reorganize the business

以及懂得充分利用科技

to take full advantage of the technology.

能夠重整企業的分析師。

But now let's take a step back.

但現在讓我們退後一步，

Let's look at the big picture.

遙望整個大前景。

There are people who argue that today's innovation

有些人認為現在的革新

is all about social media and silly games,

完全著重於大眾媒體和愚蠢的遊戲，

with nowhere near the transformational power

和工業革命所具備的改變力量

of the Industrial Revolution.

根本沾不上邊，

They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations

他們說，所有能提升產能的革新

are behind us.

前人都已經做完了。

And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that

每當我聽見這種話，就忍不住要想：

even back in the Stone Age,

即便在石器時代，

there must have been a group of cavemen

也必定曾有一群山頂洞人，

sitting around a fire one day

圍坐在火堆邊，

looking very grumpy,

一臉忿忿不平的樣子，

and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen

用極不認同的眼光

rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,

瞧著其他在山坡 來回滾動石輪的山頂洞人，

and saying to each other,

並對彼此說：

"Yeah, this wheel thing,

「誠然，這種叫輪子的東西，

cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,

確是新奇的玩具，但比起火而言

it will have no impact.

實在毫無影響力。

The big discoveries are all behind us."

所有的大發現都是前人所為。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This technological revolution

這場科技革命

is as inspiring and transformational

是與我們已知的任何事物

as anything we have ever seen.

同樣鼓舞人心、同樣有改變力量。

Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward.

人類的創意和革新 始終驅動著我們前進，

They've created jobs.

它們產生了工作，

They've raised living standards.

它們提升了生活品質，

They've made our lives

它們使我們的生命

healthier and more rewarding.

更加健康、更值得活。

And the new wave of innovation

而這波全新的革命，

which is beginning to sweep through industry