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  • Einstein said that

  • "I never think about the futureit comes soon enough."

  • And he was right, of course.

  • So today, I'm here to ask you to think of

  • how the future is happening now.

  • Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced

  • two major waves of innovation.

  • First, the Industrial Revolution

  • brought us machines and factories, railways,

  • electricity, air travel,

  • and our lives have never been the same.

  • Then the Internet revolution

  • brought us computing power, data networks,

  • unprecedented access

  • to information and communication,

  • and our lives have never been the same.

  • Now we are experiencing

  • another metamorphic change:

  • the industrial Internet.

  • It brings together intelligent machines,

  • advanced analytics,

  • and the creativity of people at work.

  • It's the marriage of minds and machines.

  • And our lives will never be the same.

  • In my current role, I see up close

  • how technology is beginning to transform

  • industrial sectors that play a huge role

  • in our economy and in our lives:

  • energy, aviation, transportation, health care.

  • For an economist, this is highly unusual,

  • and it's extremely exciting,

  • because this is a transformation

  • as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,

  • and before the Industrial Revolution,

  • there was no economic growth to speak of.

  • So what is this industrial Internet?

  • Industrial machines are being equipped

  • with a growing number of electronic sensors

  • that allow them to see, hear, feel

  • a lot more than ever before,

  • generating prodigious amounts of data.

  • Increasingly sophisticated analytics

  • then sift through the data,

  • providing insights that allow us

  • to operate the machines in entirely new ways,

  • a lot more efficiently.

  • And not just individual machines,

  • but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,

  • entire systems like power grids, hospitals.

  • It is asset optimization and system optimization.

  • Of course, electronic sensors

  • have been around for some time,

  • but something has changed:

  • a sharp decline in the cost of sensors

  • and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,

  • a rapid decrease in the cost of storing

  • and processing data.

  • So we are moving to a world

  • where the machines we work with

  • are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.

  • They are self-aware, they are predictive,

  • reactive and social.

  • It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,

  • medical devices, communicating seamlessly

  • with each other and with us.

  • It's a world where information itself

  • becomes intelligent and comes to us

  • automatically when we need it

  • without having to look for it.

  • We are beginning to deploy

  • throughout the industrial system

  • embedded virtualization,

  • multi-core processor technology,

  • advanced cloud-based communications,

  • a new software-defined machine infrastructure

  • which allows machine functionality

  • to become virtualized in software,

  • decoupling machine software from hardware,

  • and allowing us to remotely and automatically

  • monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.

  • Why does any of this matter at all?

  • Well first of all, it's already allowing us

  • to shift towards preventive,

  • condition-based maintenance,

  • which means fixing machines

  • just before they break,

  • without wasting time

  • servicing them on a fixed schedule.

  • And this, in turn, is pushing us towards

  • zero unplanned downtime,

  • which means there will be no more power outages,

  • no more flight delays.

  • So let me give you a few examples

  • of how these brilliant machines work,

  • and some of the examples may seem trivial,

  • some are clearly more profound,

  • but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.

  • Let's start with aviation.

  • Today, 10 percent of all flights

  • cancellations and delays

  • are due to unscheduled maintenance events.

  • Something goes wrong unexpectedly.

  • This results in eight billion dollars in costs

  • for the airline industry globally every year,

  • not to mention the impact on all of us:

  • stress, inconvenience,

  • missed meetings as we sit helplessly

  • in an airport terminal.

  • So how can the industrial Internet help here?

  • We've developed a preventive maintenance system

  • which can be installed on any aircraft.

  • It's self-learning and able to predict issues

  • that a human operator would miss.

  • The aircraft, while in flight,

  • will communicate with technicians on the ground.

  • By the time it lands, they will already know

  • if anything needs to be serviced.

  • Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent

  • over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,

  • helping seven million passengers

  • get to their destinations on time.

  • Or take healthcare.

  • Today, nurses spend an average

  • of 21 minutes per shift

  • looking for medical equipment.

  • That seems trivial, but it's less time spent

  • caring for patients.

  • St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,

  • which has deployed industrial Internet technology

  • to electronically monitor and connect

  • patients, staff and medical equipment,

  • has reduced bed turnaround times

  • by nearly one hour.

  • If you need surgery, one hour matters.

  • It means more patients can be treated,

  • more lives can be saved.

  • Another medical center, in Washington state,

  • is piloting an application that allows

  • medical images from city scanners and MRIs

  • to be analyzed in the cloud,

  • developing better analytics

  • at a lower cost.

  • Imagine a patient

  • who has suffered a severe trauma,

  • and needs the attention of several specialists:

  • a neurologist, a cardiologist,

  • an orthopedic surgeon.

  • If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access

  • to scans and images as they are taken,

  • they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.

  • So all of this translates into better health outcomes,

  • but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.

  • Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies

  • could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars

  • to the healthcare industry worldwide,

  • and that is just a drop in the sea

  • compared to what we need to do to make healthcare

  • affordable on a sustainable basis.

  • Similar advances are happening in energy,

  • including renewable energy.

  • Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics

  • that allow wind turbines to talk to each other

  • and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way,

  • depending on how the wind is blowing,

  • can now produce electricity at a cost

  • of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.

  • Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,

  • six times as much.

  • The list goes on, and it will grow fast,

  • because industrial data are now growing exponentially.

  • By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent

  • of all digital information.

  • But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears

  • and tell you how this is impacting already

  • the jobs we do every day,

  • because this new wave of innovation

  • is bringing about new tools and applications

  • that will allow us to collaborate

  • in a smarter and faster way,

  • making our jobs not just more efficient

  • but more rewarding.

  • Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm

  • with a handheld device telling her

  • which turbines need servicing.

  • She already has all the spare parts,

  • because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.

  • And if she faces an unexpected issue,

  • the same handheld device will allow her to

  • communicate with colleagues at the service center,

  • let them see what she sees,

  • transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,

  • and they can stream videos that will guide her,

  • step by step, through whatever complex procedure

  • is needed to get the machines back up and running.

  • And their interaction gets documented

  • and stored in a searchable database.

  • Let's stop and think about this for a minute,

  • because this is a very important point.

  • This new wave of innovation is fundamentally

  • changing the way we work.

  • And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.

  • Unemployment is already high,

  • and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs.

  • And innovation is disruptive.

  • But let me stress two things here.

  • First, we've already lived through

  • mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry,

  • and employment has gone up,

  • because innovation is fundamentally about growth.

  • It makes products more affordable.

  • It creates new demand, new jobs.

  • Second, there is a concern that in the future,

  • there will only be room for engineers,

  • data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.

  • And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.

  • But think about it:

  • Just as a child can easily figure out

  • how to operate an iPad,

  • so a new generation of mobile and intuitive

  • industrial applications will make life easier

  • for workers of all skill levels.

  • The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man

  • than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."

  • And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:

  • mechanical digital engineers who understand

  • both the machines and the data;

  • managers who understand their industry

  • and the analytics and can reorganize the business

  • to take full advantage of the technology.

  • But now let's take a step back.

  • Let's look at the big picture.

  • There are people who argue that today's innovation

  • is all about social media and silly games,

  • with nowhere near the transformational power

  • of the Industrial Revolution.

  • They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations

  • are behind us.

  • And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that

  • even back in the Stone Age,

  • there must have been a group of cavemen

  • sitting around a fire one day

  • looking very grumpy,

  • and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen

  • rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,

  • and saying to each other,

  • "Yeah, this wheel thing,

  • cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,

  • it will have no impact.

  • The big discoveries are all behind us."

  • (Laughter)

  • This technological revolution

  • is as inspiring and transformational

  • as anything we have ever seen.

  • Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward.

  • They've created jobs.

  • They've raised living standards.

  • They've made our lives

  • healthier and more rewarding.

  • And the new wave of innovation

  • which is beginning to sweep through industry

  • is no different.

  • In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet

  • could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent

  • over the next 15 years,

  • boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time,

  • and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP.

  • That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.

  • But this is not a foregone conclusion.

  • We are just at the beginning of this transformation,

  • and there will be barriers to break,

  • obstacles to overcome.

  • We will need to invest in the new technologies.

  • We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices.

  • We will need a robust cybersecurity approach

  • that protects sensitive information and intellectual property

  • and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.

  • And the education system will need to evolve

  • to ensure students are equipped with the right skills.

  • It's not going to be easy,

  • but it is going to be worth it.

  • The economic challenges facing us are hard,

  • but when I walk the factory floor,

  • and I see how humans and brilliant machines

  • are becoming interconnected,

  • and I see the difference this makes

  • in a hospital, in an airport,

  • in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic,

  • I'm enthusiastic.

  • This new technological revolution is upon us.

  • So think about the futureit will be here soon enough.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

Einstein said that

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