Name: 別被自己騙了！三個常見的思考偏誤一次學懂！ (PRIMING, HALO EFFECT, HINDSIGHT BIAS - THINKING, FAST AND SLOW (PART 3))
Uploaded: 2020-11-14T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 4 min 35 s
Description: 在我們思考及決策的過程中，常有一些潛在因子或謬誤導致了想法的偏差，今天的主編精選影片點出三個常見的思考偏誤，讓我們一起來看看自己是否也犯了相同的缺失？ 1outrage1:34 outrage 文中為動詞（被動語態），表示「被激怒」 The public were outraged by the miscarriage...

未來簡單式

If I talk to you about food and then I show you this, you'll put the letter "U" in there.

假如我跟你談到食物，接著我讓你看這幾個字母，你會放「U」在空格中。

If I talk to you about cleanliness first, and then I show you this, you'll put the letter "A" in there.

假如我先跟你談論清潔，然後我給你看這幾個字母，你會放「A」在空格中。

By simply priming people, you can significantly affect their decisions.

藉著提示人們一些訊息，你可以對他們的決定做出很大的影響。

There was a study where a wine store played French music on some days and German music on others.

有份研究顯示，一個賣酒的商店，某幾天放法國音樂，而其他天放德國音樂。

And the customers of course would never think that this would affect anything.

顧客當然從未想過這會產生什麼影響。

But they tended to buy more French wines on the days when French music was played, and more German wines on the days when German music was played.

但當店裡播放法國音樂時，他們傾向買更多法國酒，而當店裡播放德國音樂時，他們傾向買更多德國酒。

This is also one of the reasons why when you walk into a store that promotes health and freshness like Whole Foods, you'll probably be greeted with fresh flowers and fruit.

這也是為什麼當你走進一間提倡健康與新鮮食品的商店如全食超市，迎接你的可能是鮮花與水果。

The first thing you see will never be canned tuna, even though you can definitely buy plenty of canned stuff in there.

你最先看到的東西絕不會是鮪魚罐頭，即使你絕對可以在商店買到一堆罐頭食品。

If we really like someone, we tend to really like everything they do and say.

假如我們很喜歡某人，我們往往非常喜歡他們所做的任何事或所說的任何話。

If they say something average, we might think that it's the best thing we've ever heard, and if they say something stupid, we tend to just go along with it anyway.

假如他們說了些很一般的話，我們可能會認為那是我們所聽過最棒的事，而假如他們說了些愚蠢的話，我們往往會盲目的贊同。

And you probably have someone you really admire and if they do say something stupid you'll say, "Oh whatever… everyone makes mistakes…"

你可能非常崇拜某個人，如果他們做了蠢事，你會說：「喔！那沒什麼，每個人都會犯錯...」。

But then if someone you didn't like did the exact same thing, you'd be outraged.

但如果某個你不喜歡的人做了相同的蠢事，你可能會感到憤怒。

And the attractiveness of a person along with other irrelevant factors plays a huge role in how much we like what they say and do.

一個人的魅力加上其他不相關的因素，對於我們對其說的話和做的事扮演著很重要的角色。

If we're presented with two women who committed the same crime, we're much more likely to give a lighter punishment to the more attractive one.

假如我們面前有兩位犯了相同罪行的女人，我們比較有可能給較有魅力的女人較輕的懲罰。

And of course, that doesn't make sense, they committed the same crime, but that is the halo effect.

當然，這沒有道理，他們犯了同樣的罪，但這就是「光環效應」。

So next time an attractive person or someone you've put on a pedestal is trying to give you advice, ask yourself, "Is this advice valuable because it's actually valuable, or am I blinded by how he looks, or how big his house is, or how much I like him?"

所以下次某個有魅力或你十分崇拜的人要給你建議時，問問看自己：「這個建議是真的有價值，還是我被他的外貌、他房子的大小或是我對他喜歡的程度所蒙蔽雙眼？」

You probably know people who constantly feel the need to say, "Well, I knew that was going to happen…", "I knew that stock was going to fall…", "I knew that we were going to lose that war…", "I knew that stock was going to rise…".

你可能知道人們經常覺得有需要說：「我早就知道那會發生...」、「我早就知道股票會下跌...」、「我早就知道我們會打敗仗...」、「我早就知道股票會漲...」。

We tend to be experts at events after they have already occurred.

我們往往會在事情發生後才變成專家。

It's really weird how you know exactly which stock is going to rise and which stock is going to fall because you're completely broke.

這真的蠻詭異的，因為直到你完全破產後，才了解哪支股票會上漲、哪支股票會下跌。

If you actually knew that information, you'd be a really rich person by now.

假如你真的知道這些消息，你現在早該是有錢人了。

And the hindsight bias can go from just annoying to simply dangerous when we start to blame other people for not being able to see something so obvious.

當我們開始怪罪別人沒有注意到一些顯而易見的事情時，事後諸葛的偏見可以從單純的討人厭變成非常的危險。

You blame the government for making a certain decision and think, "How could they not see that?".

你怪罪政府的某項決策，並認為「他們怎麼不明白？」。

Your girlfriend hits a pothole and you get a flat tire and you get all pissed off, "How did she not see that pothole?"

你的女友撞到一個坑洞害你的輪胎爆胎，你很生氣並想：「她怎麼會沒看到那個坑洞？」。

Well… because if you were in government, you might have thought that the decision was actually a good decision at the time it was made.

恩... 因為如果你在政府工作，你可能會認為這個決定在當時的確是項好決定。

And if you were driving and looking in the mirror so you could make a turn, you might have not seen the pothole yourself.

而如果你開車轉彎時正在看後照鏡，你自己可能也看不到坑洞。

So don't be that annoying person who feels the need to tell everyone how you knew exactly who was going to win the finals and how the stock was obviously going to rise.

所以不要當個討厭的人，覺得自己需要告訴大家，你是如何知道誰會贏得決賽、股票顯然會上漲。

And definitely don't blame others for something that seems so obvious just because it's already happened.

且絕對不要因為某件已經發生的事，而去怪罪別人說那是件顯而易見的事。

Of course it's obvious now, but it wasn't obvious before it actually happened.

當然那件事現在很明顯，但在事情發生前可不顯而易見。

1. Priming: realize the power of even the simplest suggestions and what that does to people's behavior.

1. 提示：了解提示的力量，即便是最簡單的暗示，以及認知到提示對人的行為造成什麼影響。

2. The halo effect: Stop thinking everything someone says is pure gold just because you really like them.

2. 光環效應：不要只是因為你喜歡他們，而認為某人所說的每件事都是金科玉律。

Chances are everything they say isn't that flawless.

他們所說的每件事有可能並非毫無缺點。

And 3. the hindsight bias: realize that anyone can be an expert after an event has already occurred.

3. 後見之明偏誤：你要了解，在事件發生後，每個人都可以是專家。