How to get income in a DIRT low income world?

要如何在一個低薪、存款利率又低的環境下獲益?

I'm Jack Otter, editor of Barrons.com, here with Priscilla Hancock, who is the global fixed income strategist at JPMorgan.

我是Jack Otter，巴倫週刊的編輯，這是摩根資產管理的環球固定收益策略師Priscilla Hancock。

So, let's start off with your big picture view of where the Feds non-move leaves us in looking at fixed income?

我們首先來談談您如何看待聯準會不採取行動對固定收益的影響呢?

Well, it's a good question. I think it's somewhat a scratching in the heads.

這是個很好的問題，也是個相當棘手的問題。

If you think about the reason the Fed would typically tighten, it's because growth and/or inflation are getting out of control in the United States.

如果你去想聯準會採取限制的原因，大致是因為美國的貨幣升值或是通貨已經無限度地膨脹。

Clearly we don't have either of those situations.

然而顯然我們並未有任何以上的狀況。

What they do have now is a situation where they're trying to figure out when they can actually just remove the extraordinary accommodation that they've been putting in.

現在面臨的狀況是他們何時才能真正地擺脫先前的貸款。

And the U.S. numbers alone would suggest that we should do that.

而美國方面希望我們能替他們解決這個問題。

What they told us last week was, well, the U.S. numbers may look like they're okay, but we're looking at the fact that we've had a strengthening dollar, we have weak commodity prices

上禮拜美國表示一切看似沒問題，然而現今美元日漸穩固，物價卻搖擺不定，

And there's a slow down happening in the emerging markets.

此外市場的成長也漸趨緩慢，

And we're not quite sure how dramatic that slow down is, and because we're concerned about that, we're gonna be cautious.

我們無法切確得知趨緩的程度，因此我們必須更小心翼翼地持續關注。

And if you look back in history, there've been times when everything looked okay here, but there were global problems that did reverberate back to this country.

回顧歷史上那些看似風平浪靜的時候，卻有潛在的全球問題影響國內。

That's exactly right. If you look at the late 90s for instance, you had a similar situation.

沒錯，像是在1990年代後期，就有個確切的案例。

The Fed tightening the face of that, and those times, the big emerging market partner was Mexico, put too much pressure on them.

當時聯準會採取緊縮政策，正值新興市場合作夥伴墨西哥的快速成長，這使得美國背負巨大的壓力。

You know, a strong dollar and higher rates here, increases the cost of borrowing for emerging markets.

而穩固的美元與較高的利率增加了借貸給新興市場的成本，

So, it created a crisis, and I think the Fed is concerned about that, they've looked around the world since the crisis.

因而導致危機。我想聯準會自從那次的危機之後，開始更謹慎觀察全球現況。

We've had twelve central banks that have tightened, all twelve have since eased.

我們擁有十二家核心的中央銀行在寬鬆政策後便緊縮了。

So, you really almost can't be too cautious here.

所以在此我們必須更加小心謹慎。

So, into this world, where should investors be putting their money?

在這樣的全球環境下，投資者該如何投資呢？

Well, if you think about that, that probably means that there's an opportunity for duration, buying longer bonds, because long term rates are gonna stay low.

其實長期投資是很有機會的，像是長期債券。因為長時間來看利率仍會維持在低點。

And they possibly will stay low even once the Fed raises rates.

即便聯準會提高了利率，也可能繼續維持在低點。

But I think you have to be looking at some of the risks sectors today, and you recognize that, in the United States,

但若觀察當前的風險行業，值得注意的是

the economy is doing pretty well, so corporate credit has a very attractive top line.

現今美國的經濟算相當地不錯，也因此企業信用的表現皆十分良好。

Defaults are very low, particularly in the high yield sector, and you're getting paid a pretty attractive coupon there.

不履行的狀況相對少，特別在高收益的股票板塊，配息更為可觀。

In fact, spreads have increased 175 basis points since a year ago.

實際上從去年截至今日，價差已經提高了175個基點。

You can get over five percents spread in the U.S. high yield market, ignoring energy and metals in mining

美國高收益市場甚至獲取超過五個百分點的價差，不包含礦產業的能源與金屬。

And when you say spread, you're referring to the distance between what that bond is paying and the equivalent treasury bond.

而當我們提到價差，就可一併論及國債與一般債券間的投資報酬率。

An equivalent treasury bond, which is about a four to four and a half year treasury bond, that's about the average duration of the high yield market.

等值國債一般是四到四年半，與其他高收益市場平均年限差不多，

But you're making an extinction between high yield and then just standard corporate credit, which you say is exposed to some other things that might be a little dangerous.

但是屏除了高收益，只有一般標準的企業信用，對投資者來說是有些風險的。

Well that's exactly right. I mean you're seeing corporate credit strength across the board, but when you look at the investment grade sectors, those credits that are rated triple B or higher.

這樣說並沒有錯! 當國債的企業信用在機構部門間舉足輕重時，在投資級債券方面的信用卻是達到3B甚至更高的。

Many U.S. markets have global exposure, think of P&G for instance, and I'm not using them, only for illustrative purposes.

很多美國的市場都有全球曝光的效應，像是寶僑國際，我沒有使用他們產品，只是拿來做例子。

But if you think about it, well, they have a lot of global demand.

而同時值得思考的是全球對寶僑的需索無度。

And the bottom line is that the global markets are slowing, that could put some pressure on them.

它的年度帳面利潤顯示出國際市場的成長趨緩，這使得他們有不少壓力。

The other thing about the investment grade sector we're seeing is that, you know, money is cheap.

此外，投資級的股票板塊中我們可以看到貨幣貶值。

And with cheap money, the question is, do they start borrowing too much? Do they increase their leverage? Does it get them into trouble?

此時該正視的問題是他們是否過度借貸? 能增加以小搏大的可能性嗎? 或是會自己招來麻煩呢?

Not in the next three to six months, but over the longer term.

這不僅僅是三個月或半年的問題，而是與時俱進的。

One more area of interest, particularly to people with higher incomes in taxable accounts, municipal bonds, do you think there is some value there?

另一方面，特別是對於持有收益較高的應稅帳戶、地方政府債券的人口中，你覺得對他們是有利可圖的嗎?

Yes, I mean they're cheap to taxable bonds, and what I mean by that is you can get rates in some parts of the curve that are the same as tax rates and it's tax free.

沒錯，對應稅的債券來說相對便宜，也就是說他們能在曲線中去獲取和應稅金額同等的費率，也就是相當於減稅或甚至免稅。

So if you're in a higher tax bracket, municipals are very attractive, and the other thing about municipals is that when rates do move up, if they move up,

所以如果你是在應稅額高的那群人，地方政府債券就對你相當有利。

they typically outperform, in other words they don't lose as much value as comparable taxable bonds.

不只如此，當利率提高時通常高得驚人，也就是說它不會比其他應稅債券來得差。

A couple sectors, you have to be careful of them in municipal market, higher education is one of them, that probably surprises people.

有些類別在政府債券市場中需更加謹慎，高等教育就是其中一個。這或許是出乎意料之外的。

If you think about, not the Harvards of the world, but if you think about the changes that are happening in the educational system,

一想到高等教育，不只是哈佛，更要考慮到整個教育體系的面臨的改變，

a lot of people going to community college, that's gonna put pressure on sort of that middle and lower tier of small liberal arts colleges.

像是日前很多人前往的社區大學，就對初等或中等的文科學院有所影響，

They just don't have the number of people that can pay those high tuition. So, we're cautious about that sector.

因為付得起高額學費人並不多。我們需更加注意這個類別的人。

Great insight! Thanks so much, Priscilla.

非常棒的見解! 謝謝你，Pricilla。

My pleasure, thank you.

謝謝，這是我的榮幸。