by a very famous English poet

有一首詩這麼寫道

at the end of the 19th century.

這是一位很有名的英國詩人

It was said to echo in Churchill's brain

在十九世紀末寫的

in the 1930s.

聽說邱吉爾對這首詩也念念不忘

And the poem goes:

在1930年那個時候

"On the idle hill of summer,

這首詩是這麼寫的：

lazy with the flow of streams,

「夏日的慵懶之丘上

hark I hear a distant drummer,

厭倦了小河細流

drumming like a sound in dreams,

聽，我聽到了遠方的鼓聲

far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,

就像在夢裡聽到似的

dear to friend and food to powder,

遠的、近的、低沉的、高亢的，在路上迴盪著

soldiers marching,

從愛人到朋友，從食物到麵粉

soon to die."

士兵踏著步

Those who are interested in poetry,

快步地走向死亡。」

the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.

想知道這首詩名的人

But what Housman understood,

這是豪斯曼的詩集《舒洛普郡少年》

and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,

不過，豪斯曼所知道的

was that the long, hot, silvan summers

你也在尼爾森交響曲中聽過

of stability of the 19th century

就是十九世紀那漫長，炎熱，遍地林木的夏天

were coming to a close,

一切都很平和的夏天

and that we were about to move

即將走向終點

into one of those terrifying periods of history

當時，我們正要踏入

when power changes.

歷史上最令人恐懼的一段日子

And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,

因為權力將要轉移

accompanied by turbulence,

各位先生女士

and all too often by blood.

這些日子總是伴隨著騷動

And my message for you

偶爾也有血腥的暴力

is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,

告訴你們

to live at just one of those moments in history

我認為，我們無一倖免

when the gimbals upon which

都活在歷史上的那些日子

the established order of power is beginning to change

當那些已經建立的秩序

and the new look of the world,

發生劇變

the new powers that exist in the world,

也從新的角度來看這世界

are beginning to take form.

存在這世界上的新權力

And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --

正在慢慢成形

nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,

我們也曉得是哪些新權力

and all too often very bloody times.

就是那些非常動亂、極為艱困的時代

By the way, it happens about once every century.

偶爾也參雜著血腥暴力

You might argue that the last time it happened --

順便一提，這種事每個世紀都會發生一次

and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --

你或許會辯駁我說，最後一次發生的時間

was that when power passed from the old nations,

也就是豪斯曼和邱吉爾覺得有事即將發生的時候

the old powers of Europe,

是權力從衰落的國家

across the Atlantic to the new emerging power

像是歐洲的舊權

of the United States of America --

越過大西洋，到了新興權力崛起的國家

the beginning of the American century.

美利堅合眾國

And of course, into the vacuum

也正是美國開始強盛的世紀

where the too-old European powers used to be

當然，在那個時候

were played the two bloody catastrophes

歐洲人過時的權力

of the last century --

被人用來挑起兩場血腥的災難

the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.

就在那最後一個世紀

Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,

兩場災難分別是兩次的世界大戰

and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.

毛澤東說那是歐洲人的內戰

Well, ladies and gentlemen,

這麼說也真的比較貼切

we live at one of those times.

各位

But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.

我們現在也生活在那些過去的日子

And the first of these, the first two of these,

我今天就是要談三個因素

is about a shift in power.

這三個因素中的第一個

And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,

就是權力移轉

which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.

第二個因素，我想要講一塊新領域

But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.

過去從來沒有像現在這樣發生過

And what is happening today

不過，先來談談現今世上的權力移轉吧

is, in one sense, frightening

現在世上的權力移轉

because it's never happened before.

從某種層面來看，相當震懾人心

We have seen lateral shifts of power --

因為過去從沒發生過

the power of Greece passed to Rome

我們曾見過幾次橫向的權力移轉

and the power shifts that occurred

像是希臘轉到羅馬

during the European civilizations --

還有發生在歐洲社會的

but we are seeing something slightly different.

權力移轉

For power is not just moving laterally

但現在發生的權力移轉，有些微的不同

from nation to nation.

因為權力不只是國與國之間的

It's also moving vertically.

橫向移轉

What's happening today is that the power that was encased,

也有直向移轉

held to accountability, held to the rule of law,

現今所存在的權力，受到責任的牽制

within the institution of the nation state

也受到法律的牽制

has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.

越來越多的民族國家的機構

The globalization of power --

開始浮上國際檯面

we talk about the globalization of markets,

全球化的權力

but actually it's the globalization of real power.

雖然我們說是全球化市場

And where, at the nation state level

但事實上，卻是全球化權力

that power is held to accountability

從民族國家的角度來看

subject to the rule of law,

受到責任、法律

on the international stage it is not.

所牽制的權力

The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:

在國際舞台上則否

the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,

當今存在於國際舞台上的權力有

the power of the money changers --

網路的權力，衛星廣播的權力

this vast money-go-round

貨幣兌換的權力

that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary

兌換大筆金錢

for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --

數目是過去財政所需的

the money changers, if you like,

三十二倍

the financial speculators

負責貨幣兌換的人

that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,

或是叫他們金融投機客

the power of the multinational corporations

他們最近確實讓些活動停止下來

now developing budgets

多國企業所擁有的權力

often bigger than medium-sized countries.

正在發展預算

These live in a global space

有的預算數目比許多中型國家還要大筆

which is largely unregulated,

那些人住在一個全球化的空間

not subject to the rule of law,

幾乎沒有人來管

and in which people may act free of constraint.

也沒有法律的牽制

Now that suits the powerful

人們想做什麼就做什麼

up to a moment.

到目前為止

It's always suitable for those who have the most power

那些都是強權人士想要的

to operate in spaces without constraint,

那些情況，總是適合掌有大多數權力的人

but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,

他們不受限制的束縛

unregulated space --

然而，那些無人管制的地方

space not subject to the rule of law --

歷史給他們的教訓

becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --

那些不受法律牽制的地方

international trade, the Internet, etc. --

人口會變多，也有你樂見的情

but also by the things you don't want --

像是國際貿易、網路‧‧‧等等

international criminality, international terrorism.

當然，也有一些你不願看到的

The revelation of 9/11

像是國際犯罪、跨國恐怖組織

is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,

從911就可以知道

nevertheless,

就算你住在世界上最強勢的國家

those who inhabit that space can attack you

儘管如此

even in your most iconic of cities

那些空間的人還是可以攻擊你

one bright September morning.

甚至在九月的一個早晨中

It's said that something like 60 percent

攻擊你國家最具代表性的象徵

of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11

聽說四百萬塊中

actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers

大約有百分之六十拿去資助911恐怖攻擊

which 9/11 destroyed.

那次恐怖攻擊的飛機穿透雙子星大樓

You see, our enemies also use this space --

那也是911摧毀的建築

the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --

瞧，我們的敵人用這樣的空間

to be able to get around their poison,

涵蓋如此多人的旅遊、網路、衛星廣播的空間

which is about destroying our systems and our ways.

來達成他們的恐怖理念

Sooner or later,

也就是雖毀我們的組織系統

sooner or later,

早晚

the rule of history

早晚都會發生的

is that where power goes

歷史告訴我們

governance must follow.

無論權力到哪裡

And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,

統治者就得跟著權力走

that one of the phenomenon of our time

而我相信也是因為如此

is the globalization of power,

成就了現今社會

then it follows that one of the challenges of our time

權力全球化的現象

is to bring governance to the global space.

我們這世代所面對的挑戰

And I believe that the decades ahead of us now

就是把統治者帶上國際舞台

will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent

我覺得在往後的幾十年

the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:

會有些騷動，程度或大或小

to bring governance to the global space.

不管怎麼樣，我們有能力達到那目標

Now notice, I'm not talking about government.

把統治者帶上國際舞台

I'm not talking about setting up

注意，我不是在討論統治者

some global democratic institution.

也不是討論該如何建立

My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,

什麼全球化民主機構

is that this is unlikely to be done

對了各位，順便一提

by spawning more U.N. institutions.

我覺得建立再多像是聯合國這類的機構

If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.

對這件事情並不會有什麼幫助

The world needs an international forum.

我們要是沒有聯合國，我們就生一個出來就好了

It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.

這世界需要的是一個國際論壇

But when it comes to governance of the global space,

藉由國際論壇，國際行動因而得以合法化

my guess is this won't happen

但是，一談到國際舞台該由誰來統治

through the creation of more U.N. institutions.

我覺得再多的聯合國

It will actually happen by the powerful coming together

都沒有辦法解決這問題

and making treaty-based systems,

當強權聚在一起時，這個問題就會產生

treaty-based agreements,

他們因而建立用合約作為基礎的一套系統

to govern that global space.

或是協定

And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.

來統管這個國際舞台

The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,

要是你仔細點看，你會發現這類的事情正慢慢發生

entirely treaty-based,

世界貿易組織，就是個合約為底的組織

and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,

完全用合約來統治

to account if necessary.

這些合約強勢到能夠控制當今最強的國家，像是美國

Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create

必要的話，甚至可以摧毀美國

a treaty-based organization.

京都議定書：努力奮鬥

The G20:

去制定了此一合約為底的組織

we know now that we have to put together an institution

二十國集團

which is capable of bringing governance

現在，我們知道得組一個

to that financial space for financial speculation.

能夠把統治權帶到金融空間的機構

And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.

為了那些金融活動

Now there's a problem there,

這就是二十國集團因而建立的原因

and we'll come back to it in a minute,

現在有個問題了

which is that if you bring the most powerful together

我等一下會回到剛剛講的地方

to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,

就是你把強權給聚在一塊

to fill that governance space,

要他們在綁合約的機構訂定規則

then what happens to the weak who are left out?

好填補統治權這一個空缺

And that's a big problem,

我要說的問題，是那些沒有參與的弱國怎麼辦？

and we'll return to it in just a second.

這是一個嚴重的問題

So there's my first message,

我很快會回到這問題上

that if you are to pass through these turbulent times

所以我首先要告訴你們

more or less turbulently,

如果你正經歷這些騷動

then our success in doing that

無論騷動程度大小

will in large measure depend on our capacity

如果想把事情給做好

to bring sensible governance

關鍵在於我們把公正的統治權

to the global space.

帶上國際舞台

And watch that beginning to happen.

的能力

My second point is,

以及是否注意到事情已發生

and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this

接著，我要說的第二點

about such a thing,

我知道和觀眾談這件事時

but power is not just shifting vertically,

我不必這樣說話

it's also shifting horizontally.

然而，權力不只是直向移轉

You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,

權力也會橫向移轉

has been civilizations gathered around seas --

你或許會反駁我說，從文明社會的歷史來看

with the first ones around the Mediterranean,

文明社會都聚集在海洋四周

the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.

最先到達的，就在地中海

Well it seems to me

之後到達的西方後裔，就聚在大西洋

that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,

但就我看來，廣義而言

away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]

我們所看到的只是權力移轉的基本面

to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.

至不過是那些聚集在大西洋岸邊的民族

Now that begins with economic power,

搬到太平洋岸邊而已

but that's the way it always begins.

然而，現在卻有了經濟權

You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,

經濟權就是這樣開始的

the augmentation of military budgets

你會看到世界上漸漸茁壯的國家

occurring in the other growing powers in the world.

他們的外交開始發展

I think actually

軍事預算也增加

this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;

然而，我覺得

something different is happening.

權力並非只是從西方移轉到東方

My guess is, for what it's worth,

反而有些不同

is that the United States will remain

我個人的猜測

the most powerful nation on earth

無論美國是否保持在

for the next 10 years, 15,

全球最強的國家

but the context in which she holds her power

在接下來的十年，十五年

has now radically altered; it has radically changed.

美國所身處的這個環境

We are coming out of 50 years,

已經徹徹底底的改變了

most unusual years, of history

過去這五十年

in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,

是由史以來最不尋常的五十年

in which every compass needle

過去我們在世界上只有一個強權國家

for or against

其餘的國家

has to be referenced by its position to Washington --

無論認同與否

a world bestrode by a single colossus.

都必須朝向那國家的所在地，華盛頓

But that's not a usual case in history.

這個世界僅由一個強國來統治

In fact, what's now emerging

然而這在歷史上卻不常見

is the much more normal case of history.

事實上，現在所發生的事

You're beginning to see the emergence

反倒較常在歷史上看過

of a multi-polar world.

你將會看到這世界上，有許多強國

Up until now,

開始崛起

the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.

目前為止

They will remain the most powerful nation,

美國還是這世界的主導角色

but they will be the most powerful nation

他們在未來也會是最強權的國家

in an increasingly multi-polar world.

然而，這世界上卻會有越來越多的強國

And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --

美國在這所扮演的強權角色，就顯得有趣了

in China, of course,

你將會看到其他的強權國家建立起來

though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.

像是中國

It's going to be quite grumpy

雖然我覺得中國要成為強權，並不容易

as China begins to democratize her society

相反地，是有些困難

after liberalizing her economy.

因為中國在自由經濟後

But that's a subject of a different discussion.

將他們的社會民主化

You see India, you see Brazil.

不過，這又是另一個主題了

You see increasingly

你會看到印度、巴西

that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,

事實上，對我們歐洲人而言

much more like Europe in the 19th century.

這世界看起來越來越像

Europe in the 19th century:

十九世紀的歐洲

a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,

當時的歐洲

used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."

坎寧閣下，也就是英國的外交大臣

There was a balance, a five-sided balance.

將歐洲描述成「歐洲人的權力協調」

Britain always played to the balance.

當時是五個國家相互制衡

If Paris got together with Berlin,

英國也利用著這樣的平衡

Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.

舉例來說，若巴黎和柏林合作

Now notice,

英國就和維也納、羅馬合作，來抗衡巴黎和柏林