two million years seems like a really long time.

相比之下二百萬年似乎是很長一段時間

But evolutionarily, two million years is nothing.

但就進化論而言，二百萬年是很短的

And yet in two million years,

然而，二百萬年的時間， 人腦的體積增長了將近3倍

the human brain has nearly tripled in mass,

從直立猿人(我們的祖先)的 1.25磅腦袋，

going from the one-and-a-quarter pound brain of our ancestor here, Habilis,

到現在我們每個人兩耳中間的近3磅重的肉餅

to the almost three-pound meatloaf

大腦究竟有什麼特質， 讓我們每個人都需要有一個呢？

that everybody here has between their ears.

哦，原來人腦體積增加了近3倍後

What is it about a big brain

不單只增大了，它們還配備新的結構

that nature was so eager for every one of us to have one?

它們變得那麼大的主因之一， 是因為新增了一個部分

Well, it turns out when brains triple in size,

稱為「額葉」，尤其是 稱為「前額葉皮質」的部分

they don't just get three times bigger; they gain new structures.

究竟前額葉皮質有什麼功能可以

And one of the main reasons our brain got so big is because it got a new part,

在進化過程中， 一瞬間重整全部頭骨的結構？

called the "frontal lobe."

哦，原來，前額葉皮質能做很多功能，

Particularly, a part called the "pre-frontal cortex."

但其中一個最重要的功能

What does a pre-frontal cortex do for you that should justify

是作為一個經驗模擬器

the entire architectural overhaul of the human skull

飛機駕駛員利用飛行模擬器練習

in the blink of evolutionary time?

以減低在真正駕駛時的出錯率

It turns out the pre-frontal cortex does lots of things,

人類有這種非凡的能力

but one of the most important things it does is an experience simulator.

可以先在腦中創造模擬經驗

Pilots practice in flight simulators

然後在現實生活中嘗試實行

so that they don't make real mistakes in planes.

我們的祖先無法這麼做

Human beings have this marvelous adaptation

也沒有其他動物能做到， 這是一種非凡的適應能力

that they can actually have experiences in their heads

非凡程度可以比美相對的 十指、雙腳的站立、語言

before they try them out in real life.

這些能力讓我們從住在森林中進化到

This is a trick that none of our ancestors could do,

能進入購物商場

and that no other animal can do quite like we can.

現在-- 在座每個人都做過

It's a marvelous adaptation.

我的意思是

It's up there with opposable thumbs and standing upright and language

Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋店 沒有賣肝臟加洋蔥口味

as one of the things that got our species out of the trees

不是因為他們試吃過了才發現很難吃

and into the shopping mall.

而是因為，只要坐在那

(Laughter)

就能模擬那味道，光想就知道很難吃

All of you have done this.

來看看我們的經驗模擬器是怎樣運作

Ben and Jerry's doesn't have liver-and-onion ice cream,

在我繼續演講前，先很快的問大家個問題

and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went, "Yuck."

請你們想一下這兩個不同的未來

It's because, without leaving your armchair,

試著模擬這兩個未來， 然後告訴我你比較喜歡哪個

you can simulate that flavor and say "yuck" before you make it.

第一個是中彩卷，約三億一千四百萬美金

Let's see how your experience simulators are working.

另外個是下半身癱瘓

Let's just run a quick diagnostic

讓大家考慮一下

before I proceed with the rest of the talk.

你可能覺得這根本不用考慮

Here's two different futures that I invite you to contemplate.

有趣的是，我們有這兩組人的數據

You can try to simulate them and tell me which one you think you might prefer.

他們有多快樂的數據

One of them is winning the lottery. This is about 314 million dollars.

你們預期的像這樣，對嗎？

And the other is becoming paraplegic.

但這些不是真的數據，是我作出來的！

(Laughter)

這些才是真正的數據。 演講還不到5分鐘，你們小考就不及格了

Just give it a moment of thought.

因為實際上，下半身癱瘓之後一年，

You probably don't feel like you need a moment of thought.

和中了彩卷之後一年，贏彩卷和癱瘓的人

Interestingly, there are data on these two groups of people,

都同樣地滿意他們的生活

data on how happy they are.

現在，請不要為第一次小考不及格感到丟臉

And this is exactly what you expected, isn't it?

小考不合格的情況是很常發生的事

But these aren't the data. I made these up!

根據我的實驗室所做的研究

These are the data.

全國各地的經濟學家 和心理學家也在做的研究

You failed the pop quiz, and you're hardly five minutes into the lecture.

得出一些令人吃驚的結論

Because the fact is that a year after losing the use of their legs,

我們稱之為 預測的偏差

and a year after winning the lotto, lottery winners and paraplegics

這是指模擬器出錯的狀況

are equally happy with their lives.

這模擬器預測不同未來的差異

Don't feel too bad about failing the first pop quiz,

比實際的差異還大

because everybody fails all of the pop quizzes all of the time.

從實地研究到實驗室研究

The research that my laboratory has been doing,

我們都看到，選舉勝出 或落敗、獲得或失去一個伴侶

that economists and psychologists around the country have been doing,

有沒有得到升遷、有沒有通過大學入學考

has revealed something really quite startling to us,

等等產生的影響，比預期中較輕、較弱、及時間較短

something we call the "impact bias,"

不同人們所想像的

which is the tendency for the simulator to work badly.

事實上，令我完全屈服的是

For the simulator to make you believe that different outcomes

最近一項研究，關於人生重大創傷造成的影響

are more different than in fact they really are.

顯示，創傷發生超過3個月之後

From field studies to laboratory studies,

只有少數例外

we see that winning or losing an election, gaining or losing a romantic partner,

否則它對你的人生幸福並沒有任何影響

getting or not getting a promotion, passing or not passing a college test,

為什麼？

on and on, have far less impact, less intensity and much less duration

因為快樂是可以合成的

than people expect them to have.

托馬斯．布朗爵士在1642年 寫道: 「我是活著中最幸福的人」

This almost floors me --

「我擁有的潛能可以把貧困 轉換為財富，逆境轉換為繁榮」

a recent study showing how major life traumas affect people

「我比阿基里斯更加刀槍不入； 命運找不到一處能打擊我的地方。」

suggests that if it happened over three months ago,

這傢伙的腦子裡有什麼非凡的機器嗎？

with only a few exceptions,

原來，這非凡的機器我們每個人都有

it has no impact whatsoever on your happiness.

人類有種東西可視為是精神免疫的系統

Why?

認知程序的系統，大量不自覺的認知程序

Because happiness can be synthesized.

能幫助他們改變自己的世界觀

Sir Thomas Brown wrote in 1642, "I am the happiest man alive.

能使他們對自己的生活，產生更好的感受

I have that in me that can convert poverty to riches, adversity to prosperity.

和托馬斯爵士一樣，你們也有這機器

I am more invulnerable than Achilles; fortune hath not one place to hit me."

和托馬斯爵士不一樣的是，你們並不知道這點

What kind of remarkable machinery does this guy have in his head?

我們能合成快樂，但我們認為快樂是尋找來的

Well, it turns out it's precisely the same remarkable machinery that all off us have.

現在，你們並不需要我給太多合成快樂的例子

Human beings have something

但是我要給你們一些實驗例子

that we might think of as a "psychological immune system."

一些很容易找到的證據

A system of cognitive processes, largely non-conscious cognitive processes,

算是給我自己的挑戰， 因為我偶爾在演講時會講

that help them change their views of the world,

我用一份紐約時報想試圖找出一些合成快樂的例子

so that they can feel better

這裡有三個人合成快樂

about the worlds in which they find themselves.

「我在多方面也比以前好多了， 身體上、經濟上、感情上、精神上、

Like Sir Thomas, you have this machine.

幾乎所有的方面 」、「我沒有一點的遺憾，

Unlike Sir Thomas, you seem not to know it.

這是一個光榮的歷程」、「最後的結果是最好的」

We synthesize happiness, but we think happiness is a thing to be found.

這些快樂的人究竟是誰呢？

Now, you don't need me to give you

第一位是吉姆．賴特

too many examples of people synthesizing happiness, I suspect.

有些人年紀較大可能記得， 他當過美國眾議院主席

Though I'm going to show you some experimental evidence,

因為被一位年輕的共和黨員紐特．金奇

you don't have to look very far for evidence.

揭發受賄醜聞而黯然辭職

As a challenge to myself, since I say this once in a while in lectures,

他失去了一切，曾是全國擁有最大權力的民主黨員

I took a copy of the New York Times

他失去了一切

and tried to find some instances of people synthesizing happiness.

他失去了他的金錢、他的權力

Here are three guys synthesizing happiness.

那麼他在多年後說了什麼？

"I am so much better off physically, financially, emotionally, mentally

「我好多了，不管是身體上、經濟上、感情上、精神上、

and almost every other way."

幾乎所有的方面 」

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

還有什麼方面能變得更好？

"I believe it turned out for the best."

植物上？礦物上？動物上？他差不多都說完啦

Who are these characters who are so damn happy?

你們應該沒有聽說這位慕仁．碧咸

The first one is Jim Wright.

慕仁．碧咸被釋放時說出這些話

Some of you are old enough to remember:

他那時78歲，他被關了37年，

he was the chairman of the House of Representatives

在路易斯安那州監獄，因一宗他沒有犯的罪

and he resigned in disgrace

[最終他因為

when this young Republican named Newt Gingrich

獄中行為良好 而在刑期的一半中假釋出獄]

found out about a shady book deal he had done.

那他被釋放時說了什麼？

He lost everything.

「我沒有一點的遺憾，這是一個光榮的歷程。」

The most powerful Democrat in the country lost everything.

光榮的！這傢伙不是說：

He lost his money, he lost his power.

「嗯，獄中有一些人還不錯的，又有健身房。」

What does he have to say all these years later?

他說「光榮」

"I am so much better off physically, financially, mentally

這個字通常只用來 形容宗教體驗之類的吧

and in almost every other way."

哈利．蘭格曼說出以下這些話， 你們可能原本會認識他

What other way would there be to be better off?

但最後沒有，因為在1949年，他讀了一篇文章

Vegetably? Minerally? Animally?

關於兩個姓麥當勞的兄弟 所擁有的一個漢堡攤

He's pretty much covered them there.

他想︰「這是一個非常好的主意！」

Moreese Bickham is somebody you've never heard of.

於是，他找到那兩兄弟。他們說︰

Moreese Bickham uttered these words upon being released.

「3000美元，我們就給你經營權」

He was 78 years old.

哈利回到紐約，請他那個做投資銀行家的兄弟

He'd spent 37 years in a Louisiana State Penitentiary

讓他貸款3000美元

for a crime he didn't commit.

那兄弟的不朽話語是︰

[He was ultimately released

「你這白痴，沒有人吃漢堡的」

for good behavior halfway through his sentence.]

他沒有借給他錢，當然，半年後

What did he say about his experience?

一位雷‧克羅也有相同的想法

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience." Glorious!

原來很多人喜歡吃漢堡

He is not saying,

有段時間，雷‧克羅成了美國最富有的人

"Well, there were some nice guys. They had a gym."

最後，最精彩的這個

"Glorious,"

有一些人可能認得這位 彼得‧貝斯特年輕時的照片

a word we usually reserve for something like a religious experience.

他原是披頭四的鼓手

Harry S. Langerman uttered these words, and he's somebody you might have known

直到他們打發了他

but didn't, because in 1949 he read a little article in the paper

找了林哥一起巡迴

about a hamburger stand owned by two brothers named McDonalds.

好了，當彼得在1994年接受採訪時

And he thought, "That's a really neat idea!"

是，他仍是個鼓手；是，他是個錄音室音樂家

So he went to find them. They said,

他曾這樣說：「我現在比我在披頭四時更快樂」

"We can give you a franchise on this for 3,000 bucks."

好吧。我們可以從這些人身上學到些很重要的東西

Harry went back to New York, asked his brother, an investment banker,

就是快樂的秘訣

to loan him the $3,000, and his brother's immortal words were,

現在，要揭露了

"You idiot, nobody eats hamburgers."

第一：累積財富、權力和威望

He wouldn't lend him the money,

然後失去它們

and of course, six months later Ray Kroc had exactly the same idea.

第二：能被關多久就被關多久

It turns out people do eat hamburgers,

第三：讓別人變得非常非常富有

and Ray Kroc, for a while, became the richest man in America.

最後：永遠不要加入披頭四

And then finally -- you know, the best of all possible worlds --

現在，像澤‧法蘭克一樣， 我可以預測你們在想什麼

some of you recognize this young photo of Pete Best,

就是「對啦，最好是」

who was the original drummer for the Beatles,

因為當人合成快樂時，像這些人的例子

until they, you know, sent him out on an errand and snuck away

我們臉上掛著微笑，但其實都翻著白眼想︰

and picked up Ringo on a tour.

「是嗎？你從來沒有想過要那份工作？」

Well, in 1994, when Pete Best was interviewed

「是嗎？你和她」

-- yes, he's still a drummer; yes, he's a studio musician --

確實沒有什麼共同點

he had this to say: "I'm happier than I would have been with the Beatles."

而你就在她把訂婚戒指扔向你的時候

Okay. There's something important to be learned from these people,

才發現這個事實」

and it is the secret of happiness.

我們偷笑，是因為我們認為合成快樂

Here it is, finally to be revealed.

次於自然快樂

First: accrue wealth, power, and prestige, then lose it.

這是什麼術語？

(Laughter)

自然快樂，是我們得到 心理所想要的東西那種快樂

Second: spend as much of your life in prison as you possibly can.

合成快樂，是我們得不到 想要的東西時，改變想法的快樂

(Laughter)

在我們的社會，我們堅信

Third: make somebody else really, really rich.

合成快樂是比較差的一種

And finally: never ever join the Beatles.

為什麼我們這樣想？

(Laughter)

很簡單，我們的經濟發展

OK. Now I, like Ze Frank, can predict your next thought,

會變成怎樣

which is, "Yeah, right."

如果我們相信，得不到想要的東西 和得到想要的東西都能同樣地快樂？

Because when people synthesize happiness,

先向我的朋友馬修‧瑞卡道歉

as these gentlemen seem to have done,

一個只有僧侶光顧的購物中心

we all smile at them, but we kind of roll our eyes and say,

是很難取得高利潤

"Yeah right, you never really wanted the job."

因他們的購買慾不夠強

"Oh yeah, right. You really didn't have that much in common with her,

我想告訴各位，合成快樂的

and you figured that out just about the time

真實性和持久性

she threw the engagement ring in your face."

其實和那種當你達到目標

We smirk because we believe that synthetic happiness

所得到的快樂一樣程度

is not of the same quality as what we might call "natural happiness."

我是一個科學家，所以我不只是空談

What are these terms?

我會用一些數據來感化你們

Natural happiness is what we get when we get what we wanted,

首先，這個典型的實驗範例

and synthetic happiness is what we make when we don't get what we wanted.

用來說明合成的快樂

And in our society, we have a strong belief

這是較早之前的，不是我的範例

that synthetic happiness is of an inferior kind.

差不多50年前的，稱為自由選擇模式

Why do we have that belief?

這很簡單

Well, it's very simple.

你有6件物件

What kind of economic engine would keep churning

請你的實驗對象用自己 對物件的好感程度排名

if we believed that not getting what we want

在這實驗中的研究員使用了

could make us just as happy as getting it?

莫內的畫

With all apologies to my friend Matthieu Ricard,

每個人都以喜好來排這些莫內的印刷畫

a shopping mall full of Zen monks

由最喜歡到最不喜歡

is not going to be particularly profitable,

現在，我們告訴你：

because they don't want stuff enough.

「我們有些多餘的印刷畫放在櫃子裡」

(Laughter)

「我們送你一張作為獎品」

I want to suggest to you that synthetic happiness

「我們正好有3號和4號」

is every bit as real and enduring

就這樣告訴他們，這是個有點困難的抉擇

as the kind of happiness you stumble upon

因為兩張沒有太大的喜好差異

when you get exactly what you were aiming for.

但自然地，他們傾向選擇3號

I'm a scientist, so I'm going to do this not with rhetoric,

因為比4號還更喜歡一點

but by marinating you in a little bit of data.

之後，可能是15分鐘後，也可能是15天後

Let me first show you an experimental paradigm that is used

實驗對象會再看同一組物件

to demonstrate the synthesis of happiness among regular old folks.

請他們重新排列好感程度

And this isn't mine.

「請告訴我們，你有多喜歡它們」

It's a 50-year-old paradigm called the "free choice paradigm."

會發生什麼事呢？請看快樂被合成

It's very simple.

重做實驗也得出這結果

You bring in, say, six objects,

你們正在看快樂被合成

and you ask a subject to rank them from the most to the least liked.

你們想再看一次嗎？快樂！

In this case, because this experiment uses them,

「我擁有的那件物件真的比我想像中好！

these are Monet prints.

「我沒有選擇的那件物件真爛！」

So, everybody can rank these Monet prints

這正是合成的快樂

from the one they like the most, to the one they like the least.

好了，正確的反應怎樣的？「噢，真的嗎？」

Now we give you a choice:

這個是我們做的實驗

"We happen to have some extra prints in the closet.

希望這個實驗能說服你們

We're going to give you one as your prize to take home.

「對啦，最好是」不是正確的反應

We happen to have number three and number four," we tell the subject.

我們以病人為實驗對象來重做以上的實驗，

This is a bit of a difficult choice,

是患有順行性遺忘症的病人，長期住院的患者

because neither one is preferred strongly to the other,

他們多數患有科爾薩科夫氏症候群

but naturally, people tend to pick number three

一種複合性神經炎 - 他們酒喝太多

because they liked it a little better than number four.

無法製造新的回憶

Sometime later -- it could be 15 minutes; it could be 15 days --

懂嗎？他們還記得童年， 但如果你向他們自我介紹

the same stimuli are put before the subject,

然後離開房間

and the subject is asked to re-rank the stimuli.

當你再回去時，他們已經忘記你是誰

"Tell us how much you like them now."

我們把莫內的印刷畫帶到醫院

What happens?

要這些病人排名

Watch as happiness is synthesized.

從最喜歡到最不喜歡

This is the result that has been replicated over and over again.

然後，要他們選3號或4號作為禮物

You're watching happiness be synthesized.

和其他人一樣，他們說：

Would you like to see it again?

「哎呀，多謝醫生！太棒了！我正好要張新的畫

Happiness!

我要3號」

"The one I got is really better than I thought!

我們告訴他們會郵寄3號那張過去