are we alone?

我們是唯一的嗎?

The story of humans is the story of ideas --

人類的歷史就是"理念"的歷史

scientific ideas that shine light into dark corners,

將啟蒙之光照亮黑暗角落的科學理念，

ideas that we embrace rationally and irrationally,

被我們冷靜或狂熱擁護的理念，

ideas for which we've lived and died and killed and been killed,

有著我們為之而生存、死亡、殺戮，甚至犧牲的理念，

ideas that have vanished in history,

有在歷史這條長河之中消逝的理念，

and ideas that have been set in dogma.

也有被列入教條的理念。

It's a story of nations,

這是關於國家

of ideologies,

關於意識形態，

of territories,

關於領域上的，

and of conflicts among them.

以及其中種種衝突的歷史之中。

But, every moment of human history,

但是，人類歷史的任何片刻，

from the Stone Age to the Information Age,

從石器時代到資訊時代，

from Sumer and Babylon to the iPod and celebrity gossip,

從蘇美爾到巴比倫再從iPod到名流八卦，

they've all been carried out --

全部都是實現在

every book that you've read,

所有你所閱讀的書卷之中，

every poem, every laugh, every tear --

詩歌中，所有的歡笑及淚水中，

they've all happened here.

全部都發生在這裡，

Here.

這裡，

Here.

這裡，

Here.

這裡。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Perspective is a very powerful thing.

觀念是一種非常強大的東西。

Perspectives can change.

觀點會變

Perspectives can be altered.

觀點也可以被改變。

From my perspective, we live on a fragile island of life,

從我的觀點來看，我們是生存在這個充滿可能性的宇宙之中

in a universe of possibilities.

一個微細的生命之島上。

For many millennia, humans have been on a journey to find answers,

數千年來，人類始終汲汲營營於追尋答案

answers to questions about naturalism and transcendence,

關於自然主義與超自然體驗之疑問的答案，

about who we are and why we are,

關於我們是誰以及為甚麼我們會出現在這裡，

and of course, who else might be out there.

當然還包括，是否在別的地方可能還存在著生命之類的問題的答案。

Is it really just us?

真的是只有我們嗎?

Are we alone in this vast universe

是否我們孤單地存在於這個充滿能量與物質

of energy and matter and chemistry and physics?

化學元素與物理規律的浩翰宇宙之中。

Well, if we are, it's an awful waste of space.

如果真的是這樣，那真的是太浪費空間了。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But, what if we're not?

但是，如果這不是真的呢?

What if, out there, others are asking and answering similar questions?

如果自其他地方，有其他人在追問，並試圖回答類似的問題?

What if they look up at the night sky, at the same stars,

如果他們也仰望星空，凝視著同一顆星辰，

but from the opposite side?

但是他們是在宇宙的另一邊呢?

Would the discovery of an older cultural civilization out there

對更久遠文明的觀察是否

inspire us to find ways to survive

會啟發我們尋找到讓我們能順利渡過

our increasingly uncertain technological adolescence?

這越發不安的科技啟蒙階段的方法?

Might it be the discovery of a distant civilization

有沒有可能因此發現遙遠的文明

and our common cosmic origins

和我們的共同的起源

that finally drives home the message of the bond among all humans?

而最終帶回了揭示全人類內在聯系的訊息?

Whether we're born in San Francisco, or Sudan,

無論是出生在舊金山還是蘇丹

or close to the heart of the Milky Way galaxy,

亦或是靠近銀河系中心

we are the products of a billion-year lineage of wandering stardust.

我們都是彌漫在宇宙中的星層十億年發展的產物

We, all of us,

我們所有的人

are what happens when a primordial mixture of hydrogen and helium

就是由最初的氫氦混合物進化而來

evolves for so long that it begins to ask where it came from.

經過了如此慢長的進化之後，我們開始思考自己是從何而來

Fifty years ago,

五十年前

the journey to find answers took a different path

尋找答案的旅程多了另一條途徑

and SETI, the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence,

SETI，尋找外太空星球智慧生命計劃

began.

啟動了

So, what exactly is SETI?

SETI究竟是甚麼?

Well, SETI uses the tools of astronomy

SETI是嘗試使用天文學工具

to try and find evidence of someone else's technology out there.

來尋找其他擁有科技的文明蹤跡

Our own technologies are visible over interstellar distances,

我們自己的科技是在星際之間是可以被察覺的

and theirs might be as well.

別人也同樣

It might be that some massive network of communications,

它可能是個巨大的通信網路

or some shield against asteroidal impact,

或是防禦天體碰撞的護罩

or some huge astro-engineering project that we can't even begin to conceive of,

甚至超出我們想像力的宏偉的空間機械工程

could generate signals at radio or optical frequencies

產生出可能維持長久的搜計畫

that a determined program of searching might detect.

偵測到的無線電信訊號或光學頻率

For millennia, we've actually turned to the priests and the philosophers

數千年來我們都依賴牧師和思想家

for guidance and instruction on this question of whether there's intelligent life out there.

來指引和教導關於是否有其它文明的問題

Now, we can use the tools of the 21st century to try and observe what is,

今天我們能夠使用二十一世紀的工具來嘗試觀察

rather than ask what should be, believed.

而不應該是猶豫著該相信甚麼

SETI doesn't presume the existence of extra terrestrial intelligence;

SETI並不預估外地文明的存在

it merely notes the possibility, if not the probability

它僅僅是提出可能性

in this vast universe, which seems fairly uniform.

或其存在這個廣闊宇宙中的機率，應該是平均的

The numbers suggest a universe of possibilities.

這些數字展現出我們存在一個充滿可能性的宇宙之中

Our sun is one of 400 billion stars in our galaxy,

我們的太陽在銀河系中只是四千億顆恆星中的一顆

and we know that many other stars have planetary systems.

並且我們知道許多其它星球都有其行星系統

We've discovered over 350 in the last 14 years,

在過去的14年裡我們已經發現了超過350個這樣的星系了

including the small planet, announced earlier this week,

包括上周所宣佈的小型行星

which has a radius just twice the size of the Earth.

大小只有地球的兩倍

And, if even all of the planetary systems in our galaxy were devoid of life,

即使所有我們現知的行星系都不存在生命

there are still 100 billion other galaxies out there,

另外還有1000多億星系

altogether 10^22 stars.

總共有10的22次方顆恆星

Now, I'm going to try a trick, and recreate an experiment from this morning.

現在我來耍個小把戲，我將再展現今天早上所做的實驗

Remember, one billion?

還記得嘛，十億

But, this time not one billion dollars, one billion stars.

但是，這次不是十億美元，而是十億顆恆星

Alright, one billion stars.

對，就是十億顆恒星

Now, up there, 20 feet above the stage,

現在從這裡到離地面20公尺高的高度

that's 10 trillion.

就是十億的數量

Well, what about 10^22?

那10的22次方是怎樣的?

Where's the line that marks that?

這條邊界線會是在哪裡呢?

That line would have to be 3.8 million miles above this stage.

那條線一直要到離這個講臺的380公里遠的地方

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

16 times farther away than the moon,

16倍於從這裡到月球的距離

or four percent of the distance to the sun.

或者4%從這裡到太陽的距離

So, there are many possibilities.

所以一定是有很多可能性的

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And much of this vast universe,

在這個廣闊無礙的宇宙很多地方

much more may be habitable than we once thought,

比我們從前想像的更可能存在著生命

as we study extremophiles on Earth --

根據我們對地球上的嗜極生物所進行的研究

organisms that can live in conditions totally inhospitable for us,

一些有機體能在我們完全不能棲息的環境中生存

in the hot, high pressure thermal vents at the bottom of the ocean,

比如處在深海海底或極熱高溫高壓的火山口

frozen in ice, in boiling battery acid,

在封凍的冰層之間，在沸騰的電酸之中

in the cooling waters of nuclear reactors.

甚至在核子反應堆的冷卻劑之中

These extremophiles tell us that life may exist in many other environments.

這些嗜極端菌的存在表明了生命或許會出出現在許多其他的環境之中

But those environments are going to be widely spaced in this universe.

但是這些環境在宇宙中非常的分散

Even our nearest star, the Sun --

即使離我們最近的恆星-太陽

its emissions suffer the tyranny of light speed.

它的輻射也不得不受光速的限制

It takes a full eight minutes for its radiation to reach us.

需要整整8分鐘才能到達這裡

And the nearest star is 4.2 light years away,

最近的恆星距離我們有4.2光年的距離

which means its light takes 4.2 years to get here.

惡就意味著它所發出的光需要4.2年才能到達這邊

And the edge of our galaxy is 75,000 light years away,

而我們星系的邊緣則有75000光年之遠

and the nearest galaxy to us, 2.5 million light years.

離我們最近的星系要250萬光年

That means any signal we detect would have started its journey a long time ago.

這就是說任何我們能偵測到的信號都是很久很久以前就已經被發射出了

And a signal would give us a glimpse of their past,

這樣的一個信號或許能讓我們一窺他們的過去

not their present.

而不是現在

Which is why Phil Morrison calls SETI, "the archaeology of the future."

這就是為甚麼Phil Morrison稱SETI為"未來考古學"

It tells us about their past,

它為我們講述了他們的過去

but detection of a signal tells us it's possible for us to have a long future.

偵測到的信號也給予了我們對於一個長遠未來之可能性之信心

I think this is what David Deutsch meant in 2005,

我想這是David Deutsch在2005年所想表達的

when he ended his Oxford TEDTalk

當時他以他自己的

by saying he had two principles he'd like to share for living,

兩條生活原則來結束在牛津大學TED的演講

and he would like to carve them on stone tablets.

他認為是非常經典的

The first is that problems are inevitable.

第一條是問題是不可避免的

The second is that problems are soluble.

第二條是問題是可以被解決的

So, ultimately what's going to determine the success or failure of SETI

最終能決定SETI成功與否的

is the longevity of technologies,

是科技的長久存在

and the mean distance between technologies in the cosmos --

以及科技在宇宙中的平均距離-

distance over space and distance over time.

在時間與空間中的距離

If technologies don't last and persist,

如果科技不能持續

we will not succeed.

我們就成功不了

And we're a very young technology

在這個古老星系之中

in an old galaxy,

我們的科技實屬幼嫩

and we don't yet know whether it's possible for technologies to persist.

我們也不知道科技是否能夠長存

So, up until now I've been talking to you about really large numbers.

到現在為止我跟您們說的都是非常大的數字

Let me talk about a relatively small number.

讓我來跟您們說些相對較小的數字

And that's the length of time that the Earth was lifeless.

就是地球上沒有生命存在的時間的長度

Zircons that are mined in the Jack Hills of western Australia,

如果我們考察一下澳洲西部的傑克山所開掘出來的鑽石

zircons taken from the Jack Hills of western Australia

從傑克山所取出的鑽石的分析之中

tell us that within a few hundred million years of the origin of the planet

發現自地球起源之後的幾百萬年間

there was abundant water and perhaps even life.

有著豐富的水甚至生命

So, our planet has spent the vast majority of its 4.56 billion year history

所以在我們的星球上這45.6億年中的大部份時間

developing life,

都在培育生命

not anticipating its emergence.

而不只是在期待生命的出現

Life happened very quickly,

生命出現的非常地快

and that bodes well for the potential of life elsewhere in the cosmos.

這也預示了宇宙中其他星球上出現生命的潛力

And the other thing that one should take away from this chart

還有一點應該從這圖表中去掉的

is the very narrow range of time

就是所謂人類在這個星球

over which humans can claim to be the dominant intelligence on the planet.

能稱得上是擁有支配權的智能生物是非常短暫的

It's only the last few hundred thousand years

僅僅在最近的幾千年之中

modern humans have been pursuing technology and civilization.

現在人類才有出現對科技和文明的追求

So, one needs a very deep appreciation

一個種族需要對這個星球上

of the diversity and incredible scale of life on this planet

生物的多樣性以及驚人數量非常深刻的認知

as the first step in preparing to make contact with life elsewhere in the cosmos.

方能準備與宇宙中其他的生命進行接觸

We are not the pinnacle of evolution.

我們不是處在進化的頂點

We are not the determined product

我們不是億萬年進化史之中

of billions of years of evolutionary plotting and planning.

所精心設計的最終產物

We are one outcome of a continuing adaptational process.

我們是一個持續適應過程中的產物

We are residents of one small planet

我們是銀河系角落裡

in a corner of the Milky Way galaxy.

一個小行星上的居民

And Homo sapiens are one small leaf

智人只是有著

on a very extensive Tree of Life,

數百萬年歷史的

which is densely populated by organisms that have been honed for survival

生命之樹上的

over millions of years.

一片綠葉

We misuse language,

我們常用詞不當

and talk about the "ascent" of man.

談論著"人的昇華"

We understand the scientific basis for the interrelatedness of life

我們雖理解物種關聯性的科學依據

but our ego hasn't caught up yet.

但本身的自我意識卻還未成熟

So this "ascent" of man, pinnacle of evolution,

所謂的"人的昇華"，"進化的巔峰"

has got to go.

必須要去除

It's a sense of privilege that the natural universe doesn't share.

這是自然宇宙所不認同的一種特權

Loren Eiseley has said,

勞倫艾斯利曾說過:

"One does not meet oneself

一個人在另一種生物的眼裡

until one catches the reflection from an eye other than human."

會看見自己之前都不會知道的自己

One day that eye may be that of an intelligent alien,

某一天這雙眼可能屬於一個擁有智慧的外星人

and the sooner we eschew our narrow view of evolution

我們越快拋棄對進化的狹礙眼光

the sooner we can truly explore our ultimate origins and destinations.

就能越早開始真正地探索我們的起源與方向

We are a small part of the story of cosmic evolution,

我們是宇宙進化史的一小部份

and we are going to be responsible for our continued participation in that story,

並會為自己的持續參與負起相應的責任

and perhaps SETI will help as well.

或許SETI也會起它的作用

Occasionally, throughout history, this concept

在這條歷史的長河之中，偶然之間

of this very large cosmic perspective comes to the surface,

這宏偉的宇宙視角概念會浮出水面

and as a result we see transformative and profound discoveries.

而其結果就是我們所看見的具有強烈變革性及意味著深遠的表現

So in 1543, Nicholas Copernicus published "The Revolutions of Heavenly Spheres,"

1543年，尼古拉斯哥白尼出版了

and by taking the Earth out of the center,

通過去除地球中心論之後

and putting the sun in the center of the solar system,

將太陽放在了這個太陽系的中心

he opened our eyes to a much larger universe,

他為我們打開了視野而通向更大的宇宙

of which we are just a small part.

我們是屬於其中的一小部份

And that Copernican revolution continues today

哥白尼的革命直到今天

to influence science and philosophy and technology and theology.

還在持續地影響著科學、哲學、技術以及神學

So, in 1959, Giuseppe Coccone and Philip Morrison

1956年Giuseppe Coccone 和Philip Morrison

published the first SETI article in a refereed journal,

在一篇期刊論文上發表了第一篇有關SETI的文章

and brought SETI into the scientific mainstream.

並將SETI帶入了科學界的主流

And in 1960, Frank Drake conducted the first SETI observation

在1960年，SETI的Frank Drake進行了第一次對兩顆恆星的觀測

looking at two stars, Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani,

對象是鯨魚座T星和波江座天苑四星

for about 150 hours.

這場觀測大約進行了150小時

Now Drake did not discover extraterrestrial intelligence,

Drake並沒有發現外星文明

but he learned a very valuable lesson from a passing aircraft,

但他從一架飛過的飛機上得到了寶貴的經驗

and that's that terrestrial technology can interfere

那就是我們自己的科技會干涉到

with the search for extraterrestrial technology.

對外星文明的搜索

We've been searching ever since,

從那時起我們都堅持的在搜索

but it's impossible to overstate the magnitude of the search that remains.

但是這搜索的程度是不可能誇大的

All of the concerted SETI efforts, over the last 40-some years,

過去40年來SETI所作的全部努意

are equivalent to scooping a single glass of water from the oceans.

只不過是大海中的一杯水而已

And no one would decide that the ocean was without fish

不會有人因為這杯水裡沒有魚

on the basis of one glass of water.

就認為整個大海也都沒有

The 21st century now allows us to build bigger glasses --

21世紀的科技允許我們建造更大的玻璃鏡片

much bigger glasses.

更大的、更多的鏡片

In Northern California, we're beginning to take observations

在加州北部，我們開始用首批42組

with the first 42 telescopes of the Allen Telescope Array --

艾倫望遠鏡陣列來進行觀測

and I've got to take a moment right now to publicly thank

我要占月一點點的時間來詢問

Paul Allen and Nathan Myhrvold

保羅艾倫和內森梅爾沃德

and all the TeamSETI members in the TED community

以及所有TED社區之中

who have so generously supported this research.

如此慷慨地支持這項研究的SETI成員們表示感謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)

The ATA is the first telescope built from a large number of small dishes,

ATE是第一個用大量小型碟形天線通過電腦相互連結

and hooked together with computers.

建造而成的望遠鏡

It's making silicon as important as aluminum,

這樣矽就變得跟鋁一樣得重要

and we'll grow it in the future by adding more antennas to reach 350

未來我們會增加更多天線至350座左右

for more sensitivity and leveraging Moore's law for more processing capability.

以穫得更佳的敏感度並藉著摩爾定律而利用更多數據處理的能力

Today, our signal detection algorithms

今天我們的信號偵測運算法

can find very simple artifacts and noise.

可以分析出非常簡單的人為信號和噪音

If you look very hard here you can see the signal from the Voyager 1 spacecraft,

如果你非常仔細地觀察還能看到旅行者1號飛船發出的信號

the most distant human object in the universe,

目前宇宙中離我們最遠的人造物

106 times as far away from us as the sun is.

為於106倍於地球到太陽間的距離

And over those long distances, its signal is very faint when it reaches us.

經過這遙遠的距離，當它的信號被我們接收到時已經變的非常的微弱了

It may be hard for your eye to see it,

可能肉眼更難識別

but it's easily found with our efficient algorithms.

但是使用高效率的運算法就能輕易的分析出來

But this is a simple signal,

不過這是個簡單的訊號

and tomorrow we want to be able to find more complex signals.