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  • Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom.

  • You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age.

  • And then the NSA came calling.

  • What was that about?

  • Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency --

  • they didn't exactly come calling.

  • They had an operation at Princeton, where they hired mathematicians

  • to attack secret codes and stuff like that.

  • And I knew that existed.

  • And they had a very good policy,

  • because you could do half your time at your own mathematics,

  • and at least half your time working on their stuff.

  • And they paid a lot.

  • So that was an irresistible pull.

  • So, I went there.

  • CA: You were a code-cracker.

  • JS: I was.

  • CA: Until you got fired.

  • JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.

  • CA: How come?

  • JS: Well, how come?

  • I got fired because, well, the Vietnam War was on,

  • and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war

  • and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story,

  • about how we would win in Vietnam.

  • And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid.

  • And I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published,

  • saying not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor,

  • if anyone remembers that name, agrees with his views.

  • And I gave my own views ...

  • CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --

  • JS: ... which were different from General Taylor's.

  • But in the end, nobody said anything.

  • But then, I was 29 years old at this time, and some kid came around

  • and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine

  • and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views.

  • And I told him, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now,

  • and when the war is over, then I'll do mostly their stuff."

  • Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day --

  • I told my local boss that I gave that interview.

  • And he said, "What'd you say?"

  • And I told him what I said.

  • And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor."

  • He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes.

  • I was fired five minutes after that.

  • CA: OK.

  • JS: But it wasn't bad.

  • CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook

  • and stepped up your mathematical career.

  • You started working with this man here.

  • Who is this?

  • JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.

  • Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century.

  • I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley.

  • And I had some ideas,

  • and I brought them to him and he liked them.

  • Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there.

  • There it is.

  • CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together.

  • Can you explain at all what that work was?

  • JS: No.

  • (Laughter)

  • JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody.

  • (Laughter)

  • CA: How about explaining this?

  • JS: But not many. Not many people.

  • CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres,

  • so let's start here.

  • JS: Well, it did, but I'll say about that work --

  • it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that --

  • that work was good mathematics.

  • I was very happy with it; so was Chern.

  • It even started a little sub-field that's now flourishing.

  • But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics,

  • something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics,

  • and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot.

  • And about 10 years after the paper came out,

  • a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory

  • and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter."

  • Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants

  • have spread through a lot of physics.

  • And it was amazing.

  • We didn't know any physics.

  • It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics.

  • But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go.

  • CA: This is so incredible.

  • So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds

  • that may or may not perceive the truth.

  • Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory,

  • not knowing any physics,

  • discover two decades later that it's being applied

  • to profoundly describe the actual physical world.

  • How can that happen?

  • JS: God knows.

  • (Laughter)

  • But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner,

  • and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.

  • Somehow, this mathematics, which is rooted in the real world

  • in some sense -- we learn to count, measure, everyone would do that --

  • and then it flourishes on its own.

  • But so often it comes back to save the day.

  • General relativity is an example.

  • [Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized,

  • "Hey! It's the very thing in which I can cast general relativity."

  • So, you never know. It is a mystery.

  • It is a mystery.

  • CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity.

  • Tell us about this.

  • JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it --

  • you know, those squares.

  • What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,

  • the great mathematician, in the 1700s.

  • And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics:

  • algebraic topology, geometry.

  • That paper up there had its roots in this.

  • So, here's this thing:

  • it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces.

  • And if you look at the difference -- vertices minus edges plus faces --

  • you get two.

  • OK, well, two. That's a good number.

  • Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering --

  • this has 12 vertices and 30 edges

  • and 20 faces, 20 tiles.

  • And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two.

  • And in fact, you could do this any which way --

  • cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles

  • and mix them up.

  • And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two.

  • Here's a different shape.

  • This is a torus, or the surface of a doughnut: 16 vertices

  • covered by these rectangles, 32 edges, 16 faces.

  • Vertices minus edges comes out to be zero.

  • It'll always come out to zero.

  • Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles

  • or anything like that, you're going to get zero.

  • So, this is called the Euler characteristic.

  • And it's what's called a topological invariant.

  • It's pretty amazing.

  • No matter how you do it, you're always get the same answer.

  • So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s,

  • into a subject which is now called algebraic topology.

  • CA: And your own work took an idea like this and moved it

  • into higher-dimensional theory,

  • higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariances?

  • JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants:

  • Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes.

  • There were a bunch of these types of invariants.

  • I was struggling to work on one of them

  • and model it sort of combinatorially,

  • instead of the way it was typically done,

  • and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things.

  • But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --

  • who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics

  • and had 13 children,

  • who he apparently would dandle on his knee while he was writing --

  • if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants.

  • CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there.

  • Let's talk about Renaissance.

  • Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA,

  • you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry.

  • I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory.

  • Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades.

  • The way it's been explained to me,

  • what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns,

  • it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk,

  • compared with other hedge funds.

  • So how on earth did you do this, Jim?

  • JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people.

  • When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics.

  • I was in my late 30s, I had a little money.

  • I started trading and it went very well.

  • I made quite a lot of money with pure luck.

  • I mean, I think it was pure luck.

  • It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.

  • But in looking at the data, after a while I realized:

  • it looks like there's some structure here.

  • And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models --

  • just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].

  • You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer.

  • Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.

  • CA: Can we take a look at this?

  • Because here's a typical graph of some commodity.

  • I look at that, and I say, "That's just a random, up-and-down walk --

  • maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time."

  • How on earth could you trade looking at that,

  • and see something that wasn't just random?

  • JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days,

  • commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend.

  • Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods.

  • And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today,

  • by the average move in the past 20 days --

  • maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money.

  • And in fact, years ago, such a system would work --

  • not beautifully, but it would work.

  • You'd make money, you'd lose money, you'd make money.

  • But this is a year's worth of days,

  • and you'd make a little money during that period.

  • It's a very vestigial system.

  • CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time

  • and see whether, for example,

  • a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happened next.

  • JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best.

  • Trend-following would have been great in the '60s,

  • and it was sort of OK in the '70s.

  • By the '80s, it wasn't.

  • CA: Because everyone could see that.

  • So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?

  • JS: We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches --

  • shorter-term approaches to some extent.

  • The real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data --

  • and we had to get it by hand in the early days.

  • We went down to the Federal Reserve and copied interest rate histories

  • and stuff like that, because it didn't exist on computers.

  • We got a lot of data.

  • And very smart people -- that was the key.

  • I didn't really know how to hire people to do fundamental trading.

  • I had hired a few -- some made money, some didn't make money.

  • I couldn't make a business out of that.

  • But I did know how to hire scientists,

  • because I have some taste in that department.

  • So, that's what we did.

  • And gradually these models got better and better,

  • and better and better.

  • CA: You're credited with doing something remarkable at Renaissance,

  • which is building this culture, this group of people,

  • who weren't just hired guns who could be lured away by money.

  • Their motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science.

  • JS: Well, I'd hoped that might be true.

  • But some of it was money.

  • CA: They made a lot of money.

  • JS: I can't say that no one came because of the money.

  • I think a lot of them came because of the money.

  • But they also came because it would be fun.

  • CA: What role did machine learning play in all this?

  • JS: In a certain sense, what we did was machine learning.

  • You look at a lot of data, and you try to simulate different predictive schemes,

  • until you get better and better at it.

  • It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself the way we did things.

  • But it worked.

  • CA: So these different predictive schemes can be really quite wild and unexpected.

  • I mean, you looked at everything, right?

  • You looked at the weather, length of dresses, political opinion.

  • JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.

  • CA: What sort of things?

  • JS: Well, everything.

  • Everything is grist for the mill -- except hem lengths.

  • Weather, annual reports,

  • quarterly reports, historic data itself, volumes, you name it.

  • Whatever there is.

  • We take in terabytes of data a day.

  • And store it away and massage it and get it ready for analysis.

  • You're looking for anomalies.

  • You're looking for -- like you said,

  • the efficient market hypothesis is not correct.

  • CA: But any one anomaly might be just a random thing.

  • So, is the secret here to just look at multiple strange anomalies,

  • and see when they align?

  • JS: Any one anomaly might be a random thing;

  • however, if you have enough data you can tell that it's not.

  • You can see an anomaly that's persistent for a sufficiently long time --

  • the probability of it being random is not high.

  • But these things fade after a while; anomalies can get washed out.

  • So you have to keep on top of the business.

  • CA: A lot of people look at the hedge fund industry now

  • and are sort of ... shocked by it,

  • by how much wealth is created there,

  • and how much talent is going into it.

  • Do you have any worries about that industry,

  • and perhaps the financial industry in general?

  • Kind of being on a runaway train that's --

  • I don't know -- helping increase inequality?

  • How would you champion what's happening in the hedge fund industry?

  • JS: I think in the last three or four years,

  • hedge funds have not done especially well.

  • We've done dandy,

  • but the hedge fund industry as a whole has not done so wonderfully.

  • The stock market has been on a roll, going up as everybody knows,

  • and price-earnings ratios have grown.

  • So an awful lot of the wealth that's been created in the last --

  • let's say, five or six years -- has not been created by hedge funds.

  • People would ask me, "What's a hedge fund?"

  • And I'd say, "One and 20."

  • Which means -- now it's two and 20 --

  • it's two percent fixed fee and 20 percent of profits.

  • Hedge funds are all different kinds of creatures.

  • CA: Rumor has it you charge slightly higher fees than that.

  • JS: We charged the highest fees in the world at one time.

  • Five and 44, that's what we charge.

  • CA: Five and 44.

  • So five percent flat, 44 percent of upside.

  • You still made your investors spectacular amounts of money.

  • JS: We made good returns, yes.

  • People got very mad: "How can you charge such high fees?"

  • I said, "OK, you can withdraw."

  • But "How can I get more?" was what people were --

  • (Laughter)

  • But at a certain point, as I think I told you,

  • we bought out all the investors because there's a capacity to the fund.

  • CA: But should we worry about the hedge fund industry

  • attracting too much of the world's great mathematical and other talent

  • to work on that, as opposed to the many other problems in the world?

  • JS: Well, it's not just mathematical.

  • We hire astronomers and physicists and things like that.

  • I don't think we should worry about it too much.

  • It's still a pretty small industry.

  • And in fact, bringing science into the investing world

  • has improved that world.

  • It's reduced volatility. It's increased liquidity.

  • Spreads are narrower because people are trading that kind of stuff.

  • So I'm not too worried about Einstein going off and starting a hedge fund.

  • CA: You're at a phase in your life now where you're actually investing, though,

  • at the other end of the supply chain --

  • you're actually boosting mathematics across America.

  • This is your wife, Marilyn.

  • You're working on philanthropic issues together.

  • Tell me about that.

  • JS: Well, Marilyn started --

  • there she is up there, my beautiful wife --

  • she started the foundation about 20 years ago.

  • I think '94.

  • I claim it was '93, she says it was '94,

  • but it was one of those two years.

  • (Laughter)

  • We started the foundation, just as a convenient way to give charity.

  • She kept the books, and so on.

  • We did not have a vision at that time, but gradually a vision emerged --

  • which was to focus on math and science, to focus on basic research.

  • And that's what we've done.

  • Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance and went to work at the foundation.

  • So that's what we do.

  • CA: And so Math for America is basically investing

  • in math teachers around the country,

  • giving them some extra income, giving them support and coaching.

  • And really trying to make that more effective

  • and make that a calling to which teachers can aspire.

  • JS: Yeah -- instead of beating up the bad teachers,

  • which has created morale problems all through the educational community,

  • in particular in math and science,

  • we focus on celebrating the good ones and giving them status.

  • Yeah, we give them extra money, 15,000 dollars a year.

  • We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today,

  • as part of a core.

  • There's a great morale among them.

  • They're staying in the field.

  • Next year, it'll be 1,000 and that'll be 10 percent

  • of the math and science teachers in New York [City] public schools.

  • (Applause)

  • CA: Jim, here's another project that you've supported philanthropically:

  • Research into origins of life, I guess.

  • What are we looking at here?

  • JS: Well, I'll save that for a second.

  • And then I'll tell you what you're looking at.

  • Origins of life is a fascinating question.

  • How did we get here?

  • Well, there are two questions:

  • One is, what is the route from geology to biology --

  • how did we get here?

  • And the other question is, what did we start with?

  • What material, if any, did we have to work with on this route?

  • Those are two very, very interesting questions.

  • The first question is a tortuous path from geology up to RNA

  • or something like that -- how did that all work?

  • And the other, what do we have to work with?

  • Well, more than we think.

  • So what's pictured there is a star in formation.

  • Now, every year in our Milky Way, which has 100 billion stars,

  • about two new stars are created.

  • Don't ask me how, but they're created.

  • And it takes them about a million years to settle out.

  • So, in steady state,

  • there are about two million stars in formation at any time.

  • That one is somewhere along this settling-down period.

  • And there's all this crap sort of circling around it,

  • dust and stuff.

  • And it'll form probably a solar system, or whatever it forms.

  • But here's the thing --

  • in this dust that surrounds a forming star

  • have been found, now, significant organic molecules.

  • Molecules not just like methane, but formaldehyde and cyanide --

  • things that are the building blocks -- the seeds, if you will -- of life.

  • So, that may be typical.

  • And it may be typical that planets around the universe

  • start off with some of these basic building blocks.

  • Now does that mean there's going to be life all around?

  • Maybe.

  • But it's a question of how tortuous this path is

  • from those frail beginnings, those seeds, all the way to life.

  • And most of those seeds will fall on fallow planets.

  • CA: So for you, personally,

  • finding an answer to this question of where we came from,

  • of how did this thing happen, that is something you would love to see.

  • JS: Would love to see.

  • And like to know --

  • if that path is tortuous enough, and so improbable,

  • that no matter what you start with, we could be a singularity.

  • But on the other hand,

  • given all this organic dust that's floating around,

  • we could have lots of friends out there.

  • It'd be great to know.

  • CA: Jim, a couple of years ago, I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,

  • and I asked him the secret of his success,

  • and he said taking physics seriously was it.

  • Listening to you, what I hear you saying is taking math seriously,

  • that has infused your whole life.

  • It's made you an absolute fortune, and now it's allowing you to invest

  • in the futures of thousands and thousands of kids across America and elsewhere.

  • Could it be that science actually works?

  • That math actually works?

  • JS: Well, math certainly works. Math certainly works.

  • But this has been fun.

  • Working with Marilyn and giving it away has been very enjoyable.

  • CA: I just find it -- it's an inspirational thought to me,

  • that by taking knowledge seriously, so much more can come from it.

  • So thank you for your amazing life, and for coming here to TED.

  • Thank you.

  • Jim Simons!

  • (Applause)

Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom.

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