Yes, it is a scrambled egg.

是的, 這是關於打蛋

But as you look at it,

但當你注視它

I hope you'll begin to feel just slightly uneasy.

我希望你們會開始

Because you may notice that what's actually happening

感到一絲絲的不自在

is that the egg is unscrambling itself.

因為你會注意到實際上發生的是

And you'll now see the yolk and the white have separated.

蛋在重新回到有序的狀態

And now they're going to be poured back into the egg.

看到蛋白蛋黃分離

And we all know in our heart of hearts

接著是灌回到蛋殼之中

that this is not the way the universe works.

我們非常清楚

A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.

宇宙不會是這樣運行的

An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing

打散的蛋 是濃稠的

that can create even more sophisticated things,

蛋是美麗的 是複雜的

such as chickens.

也能產生更複雜的

And we know in our heart of hearts

像是小雞

that the universe does not travel from mush to complexity.

我們也非常明白

In fact, this gut instinct

宇宙不是從稠狀混亂

is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics,

到複雜的運行

the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.

事實上, 本能直覺

What that says basically

是反映了一些基本物理定律

is that the general tendency of the universe

熱力學的第二定律或熵變定理

is to move from order and structure

基本上是說

to lack of order, lack of structure --

宇宙的一般通則

in fact, to mush.

是從較有規則

And that's why that video feels a bit strange.

與結構的狀態

And yet, look around us.

演變成缺乏規律與結構的方向

What we see around us is staggering complexity.

也就是向 濃稠狀混亂

Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone,

那也就是剛剛錄影片段

there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded.

看起來奇怪的地方

That's hundreds of times as many species as there are on Earth.

同樣地

And they're being traded by a species of almost seven billion individuals,

看看我們的四周

who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet

到處所見

into a global system of stupendous complexity.

都是驚人的複雜

So here's a great puzzle:

Eric Beinhocker 估計光紐約市

in a universe ruled by the second law of thermodynamics,

就有近100億項物品在進行交易

how is it possible

是數百倍地球所有生物

to generate the sort of complexity I've described,

的實際數量

the sort of complexity represented by you and me

而這些交易只是由一種近

and the convention center?

70億數量的生物物種

Well, the answer seems to be,

被交易 旅行 與 網路 所串聯

the universe can create complexity,

成一全球系統

but with great difficulty.

的驚人複雜性

In pockets,

這就是個偉大的迷惑:

there appear what my colleague, Fred Spier,

宇宙中

calls "Goldilocks conditions" --

由熱力學的第二定律所主宰

not too hot, not too cold,

又是怎麼可能

just right for the creation of complexity.

產生剛剛所描述的複雜

And slightly more complex things appear.

由你我所代表的複雜

And where you have slightly more complex things,

以及這會議中心的一切呢?

you can get slightly more complex things.

答案似乎是

And in this way, complexity builds stage by stage.

宇宙能創造出複雜性

Each stage is magical

但帶著些困難度

because it creates the impression of something utterly new

口袋裡

appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe.

有著我的同事, Fred Spier,

We refer in big history to these moments as threshold moments.

所稱的 Goldilocks (適宜)條件

And at each threshold, the going gets tougher.

既不過熱 也不過冷

The complex things get more fragile,

條件剛剛好 適宜創造出複雜性

more vulnerable;

更約略複雜的事就發生了

the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent,

有了複雜的發生

and it's more difficult to create complexity.

才能有再約略複雜的事接著發生

Now, we, as extremely complex creatures,

就這樣 複雜性一步一步

desperately need to know this story

建構起來

of how the universe creates complexity despite the second law,

每一步都是神奇的

and why complexity means vulnerability and fragility.

因為一切都是創建新奇的事物

And that's the story that we tell in big history.

一切都是無中生有

But to do it, you have do something

在大歷史中 我們稱這些階段為

that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible.

閥值時段

You have to survey the whole history of the universe.

每一個閥值

So let's do it.

是愈來愈難

(Laughter)

複雜的事是 更脆弱

Let's begin by winding the timeline back

更易破碎

13.7 billion years,

Goldilocks (適宜)條件是更嚴峻

to the beginning of time.

更困難

Around us, there's nothing.

創建下一個複雜性

There's not even time or space.

現在呢, 身為極度複雜物種

Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can

極度需要知道這個關於

and cube it a gazillion times and that's where we are.

宇宙變得複雜的故事

And then suddenly,

除了是第二定律

bang!

以及為何複雜性

A universe appears, an entire universe.

意味著脆弱性

And we've crossed our first threshold.

與不穩定

The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an atom.

這些就是我們想解的大歷史

It's incredibly hot.

為了達成它 我們必須先做些其他事

It contains everything that's in today's universe,

這事乍看之下是完全不可能的

so you can imagine, it's busting.

就是你得盤查整個宇宙的歷史

And it's expanding at incredible speed.

所以 進行吧!

And at first, it's just a blur,

(笑聲)

but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that blur.

讓我們把時間往回撥

Within the first second,

到137億年前

energy itself shatters into distinct forces

也就是時間的開始

including electromagnetism and gravity.

四周是什麼也沒有

And energy does something else quite magical:

根本沒有時間與空間

it congeals to form matter --

先想像能想像的最黑暗與空無的狀況

quarks that will create protons

再更加無數倍的狀況

and leptons that include electrons.

那才是所處的狀態

And all of that happens in the first second.

突然間

Now we move forward 380,000 years.

砰! 一個宇宙出現 一個完整的宇宙

That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet.

我們第一次越過閥值

And now simple atoms appear of hydrogen and helium.

那個宇宙是非常小 比一個原子還小

Now I want to pause for a moment,

卻是極度的高溫高能量

380,000 years after the origins of the universe,

它包含今日所有存在宇宙的東西

because we actually know quite a lot about the universe at this stage.

所以你可以想像 那是非常爆滿

We know above all that it was extremely simple.

它開始以極快的速度膨脹

It consisted of huge clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms,

一開始只是模糊渾沌

and they have no structure.

但是渾沌中一些明晰的物質出現

They're really a sort of cosmic mush.

就在第一秒內

But that's not completely true.

能量自己分裂出不同的作用力

Recent studies

包括電磁力與重力

by satellites such as the WMAP satellite

能量開始做些神奇的事

have shown that, in fact,

它凝結成物質

there are just tiny differences in that background.

有夸克就是後來組成質子等

What you see here,

有輕子就是含電子等

the blue areas are about a thousandth of a degree cooler

這些都發生在第一秒內

than the red areas.

再往前撥快38萬年

These are tiny differences,

是人類出現於地球上的兩倍長的時間

but it was enough for the universe to move on

現在 簡單的原子出現了

to the next stage of building complexity.

氫與氦

And this is how it works.

讓我暫停一下下

Gravity is more powerful where there's more stuff.

宇宙開始後的38萬年

So where you get slightly denser areas,

就目前為止我們

gravity starts compacting clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms.

對這段宇宙歷史是知道相當多的

So we can imagine the early universe breaking up into a billion clouds.

我們也知道一切都是相當簡單的物理

And each cloud is compacted,

有著龐大雲霧般的

gravity gets more powerful as density increases,

氫與氦原子

the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud,

還不成結構狀態

and then, at the center,

它們真的只是一種宇宙渾沌

the temperature crosses the threshold temperature

又不完全是

of 10 million degrees,

根據最近研究

protons start to fuse,

WMAP衛星的觀測

there's a huge release of energy,

顯示背景輻射 有少許的不同

and --

就如此所示

bam!

藍色區域有著相差千分之一度的冷

We have our first stars.

相較於紅色區域

From about 200 million years after the Big Bang,

只有著些許不同

stars begin to appear all through the universe,

卻足夠讓宇宙演化

billions of them.

進入下一階段的複雜度

And the universe is now significantly more interesting

就是這麼的進展

and more complex.

重力當有更多物質聚集

Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions

作用更強

for crossing two new thresholds.

只要有密度分配不均的情況

When very large stars die,

重力就開始作用

they create temperatures so high

拉近 氫和氦原子團

that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations,

所以可以想像 初期的宇宙 開始分出

to form all the elements of the periodic table.

無數的 小雲團

If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring,

每一個雲團都是緊實的

it was forged in a supernova explosion.

而重力又隨密度增加而增加作用

So now the universe is chemically more complex.

雲團核心處的溫度開始升高

And in a chemically more complex universe,

然後在雲團中的核心處

it's possible to make more things.

溫度越過了臨界溫度

And what starts happening is that, around young suns,

約為1000萬度

young stars,

質子開始融合

all these elements combine, they swirl around,

也釋放出巨大能量

the energy of the star stirs them around,

碰!

they form particles, they form snowflakes, they form little dust motes,

有了第一個恆星了

they form rocks, they form asteroids,

約當自宇宙開始後的2億年

and eventually, they form planets and moons.

恆星開始出現在宇宙四處

And that is how our solar system was formed,

幾十億的星星

four and a half billion years ago.

宇宙開始有趣多了

Rocky planets like our Earth are significantly more complex than stars

也更複雜

because they contain a much greater diversity of materials.

恆星會產生最適宜狀態

So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.

再越過兩個門階

Now, the going gets tougher.

當大型恆星死亡

The next stage introduces entities that are significantly more fragile,

會是極高溫狀態

significantly more vulnerable,

質子開始結合成各種奇特的組合

but they're also much more creative

也建構出週期表的所有元素

and much more capable of generating further complexity.

如果 你也像我帶著一只金戒指

I'm talking, of course, about living organisms.

它被超新星爆炸所偽造

Living organisms are created by chemistry.

所以 現在的宇宙就化學的觀點是更複雜的

We are huge packages of chemicals.

就化學上複雜的宇宙

So, chemistry is dominated by the electromagnetic force.

具備製造更多事物的條件

That operates over smaller scales than gravity,

接著發生的是

which explains why you and I are smaller than stars or planets.

在一些年輕的恆星中

Now, what are the ideal conditions for chemistry?

年輕的星球

What are the Goldilocks conditions?

所有元素結合 環旋

Well, first, you need energy,

星球的能量 擾動它們

but not too much.

形成粒子 形成雪片

In the center of a star, there's so much energy

形成小小的沙塵

that any atoms that combine will just get busted apart again.

形成岩石 形成小行星

But not too little.

最後形成行星與衛星

In intergalactic space,

這也就是我們太陽系統的形成

there's so little energy that atoms can't combine.

約是45億年前

What you want is just the right amount,

岩石建構的行星 如地球

and planets, it turns out, are just right,

會比其他星球 更複雜

because they're close to stars, but not too close.

因為有著更多元的的物質

You also need a great diversity of chemical elements,

我們也就越過複雜度 第四階的門檻

and you need liquids, such as water.

愈來愈困難了

Why?

下個階段的複雜 是個體

Well, in gases, atoms move past each other so fast

更脆弱

that they can't hitch up.

更容易受傷

In solids,

卻也更有創造性

atoms are stuck together, they can't move.

更能產生更多的複雜度

In liquids,

這裡說的 當然就是

they can cruise and cuddle

有生命的實體

and link up to form molecules.

生物體都是由化學變化產生

Now, where do you find such Goldilocks conditions?

我們就是一大包的化學物集合體

Well, planets are great,

而化學主要是靠電磁作用力

and our early Earth was almost perfect.

作用距離比重力作用的小很多

It was just the right distance from its star

也解釋了為何你和我

to contain huge oceans of liquid water.

比星球是小很多很多

And deep beneath those oceans,

又是怎樣的理想化學狀態呢?

at cracks in the Earth's crust,

也就是所謂的最適條件?

you've got heat seeping up from inside the Earth,

首先, 需要能源

and you've got a great diversity of elements.

但又不能過多

So at those deep oceanic vents,

星球的中心能量是高的

fantastic chemistry began to happen,

任何結合的原子 又都會再爆開

and atoms combined in all sorts of exotic combinations.

又不能太少的能量

But of course, life is more than just exotic chemistry.

星河之間的太空 就是太少的能量

How do you stabilize those huge molecules

原子無法結合一起

that seem to be viable?

所需的就是適當的能量

Well, it's here that life introduces an entirely new trick.

行星 就剛剛好有著適當能量

You don't stabilize the individual;

因為它們是接近恆星 又不是過近

you stabilize the template,

也同時需要多種化學元素

the thing that carries information,

也需要一些液體 像水

and you allow the template to copy itself.

為什麼?

And DNA, of course, is the beautiful molecule

因為在氣相態 原子與原子的移動過於快速

that contains that information.

很難結合

You'll be familiar with the double helix of DNA.

固相態

Each rung contains information.

又因連在一起 無法移動

So, DNA contains information about how to make living organisms.

液相態呢

And DNA also copies itself.

允許四處遊蕩與集結

So, it copies itself

連結成各種分子

and scatters the templates through the ocean.

那到哪裡找到如此的 最適狀態?

So the information spreads.

其實行星就是好的

Notice that information has become part of our story.

我們的地球

The real beauty of DNA though is in its imperfections.

就算是幾乎完美

As it copies itself, once in every billion rungs,

它有著與恆星剛剛好的距離

there tends to be an error.

能有著巨大的海洋

And what that means is that DNA is, in effect, learning.

在海洋深處

It's accumulating new ways of making living organisms

地殼縫隙

because some of those errors work.

地熱往上傳遞

So DNA's learning

又有著多種的元素

and it's building greater diversity and greater complexity.

所以在深海縫隙

And we can see this happening over the last four billion years.

神奇的化學反應開始了

For most of that time of life on Earth,

原子組合成未有的化合物

living organisms have been relatively simple --

當然 生命本身

single cells.

不是只是非比尋常的化學

But they had great diversity, and, inside, great complexity.

你要如何穩定這些

Then from about 600 to 800 million years ago,

不穩定的

multi-celled organisms appear.

巨大的分子群?

You get fungi, you get fish,

在這時候 生命引入

you get plants,

一整個新把戲

you get amphibia, you get reptiles,

並不是穩定每一個體

and then, of course, you get the dinosaurs.

而是穩定樣版:

And occasionally, there are disasters.

就是攜帶訊息的

Sixty-five million years ago,

與日後可複製的樣版

an asteroid landed on Earth

DNA 就是這

near the Yucatan Peninsula,