when our teacher told us

當老師告訴我們

that the world population had become

世界人口已達

three billion people,

三十億人的時候，

and that was in 1960.

那年是 1960 年。

I'm going to talk now about

我現在想談論的是

how world population has changed from that year

自從那年後，世界人口是如何改變了，

and into the future,

未來又將如何？

but I will not use digital technology,

但這次我不用數位科技

as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.

因為在前五場的 TEDTalks，我已用了好幾次

Instead, I have progressed,

相反地，這次我進步了

and I am, today, launching

今天，我要展開一項

a brand new analog teaching technology

全新的類比教學技術，

that I picked up from IKEA:

一個我從 IKEA 取得的科技產品：

this box.

就是這個箱子。

This box contains one billion people.

這箱子藏有十億人。

And our teacher told us

我們以前的老師告訴我們，

that the industrialized world, 1960,

1960 年時，在工業國家裡

had one billion people.

共有十億人口。

In the developing world, she said,

她說，在發展中國家

they had two billion people.

有二十億人。

And they lived away then.

而他們的生活遠遠不及工業化國家。

There was a big gap between

在他們之中，隔著一個巨大鴻溝

the one billion in the industrialized world

十億人住在工業化的世界裡，

and the two billion in the developing world.

另外二十億人住在開發中國家。

In the industrialized world,

在工業化世界裡，

people were healthy,

人們身體健康、

educated, rich,

教育良好、生活富裕、

and they had small families.

也擁有小家庭。

And their aspiration

他們的志願是

was to buy a car.

買一輛車。

And in 1960, all Swedes were saving

1960 年時， 每個瑞典人都會存錢

to try to buy a Volvo like this.

買一輛 Volvo，像這個

This was the economic level at which Sweden was.

這是當時瑞典的經濟水準

But in contrast to this,

但相反地，

in the developing world, far away,

開發中國家卻遠不及此，

the aspiration of the average family there

在那裡，一般家庭的志願是

was to have food for the day.

求一頓安飽就好

They were saving

他們存錢

to be able to buy a pair of shoes.

是爲了能夠買一雙鞋

There was an enormous gap in the world

當時世界存在一個巨大鴻溝。

when I grew up.

當我還小的時候

And this gap between the West and the rest

這個介於西方國家和其他地區的鴻溝

has created a mindset of the world,

創造了一種世界心態

which we still use linguistically

這個心態反應在，我們仍然在語言上

when we talk about "the West"

使用「西方國家」

and "the Developing World."

與「發展中國家」等詞彙。

But the world has changed,

但這個世界已經改變了，

and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset

心態卻沒有更新

and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.

分類世界的方法也停留在過去，沒有人好好地理解

And that's what I'm going to show you,

這就是我要向各位展示的東西

because since 1960

因為，自從 1960 年開始，

what has happened in the world up to 2010

一直到 2010 年以來，在這個世界上所發生的是

is that a staggering

一個驚人的

four billion people

四十億人口

have been added to the world population.

加入了世界

Just look how many.

看看數據就可以明白

The world population has doubled

自從我上學後，

since I went to school.

全球人口翻了兩倍。

And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.

當然，西方國家的經濟有所成長

A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,

許多企業提振了經濟，

so the Western population moved over to here.

於是，西方國家的人口也移到這裡

And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.

現在，他們的志願已經不再只是一輛車了

Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination

現在他們要的是長途旅行

and they want to fly.

他們想坐飛機

So this is where they are today.

所以這是他們今天所在之處

And the most successful of the developing countries,

而在這裡，最成功的發展中國家

they have moved on, you know,

也進步了，

and they have become emerging economies, we call them.

他們成為新興國家

They are now buying cars.

現在他們開始買起車子。

And what happened a month ago

就在一個月前

was that the Chinese company, Geely,

一家中國企業——吉利汽車

they acquired the Volvo company,

買下了 Volvo

and then finally the Swedes understood that

於是瑞典人終於明白

something big had happened in the world.

有什麽大事發生了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So there they are.

就是這樣

And the tragedy is that the two billion over here

但悲傷的是，這裡的二十億人

that is struggling for food and shoes,

爲了食物和鞋子掙扎奮鬥的人們，

they are still almost as poor

依然和五十年前一樣

as they were 50 years ago.

貧窮

The new thing is that

新的不同之處是

we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,

在這，有一群很大的有三十億人口，

which are also becoming emerging economies,

成為新興國家經濟的一員，

because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,

因為他們相當健康、受過相對良好的教育、

and they already also have two to three children

平均每個婦女

per woman, as those [richer also] have.

也有兩到三個孩子了

And their aspiration now

而現在他們的志願

is, of course, to buy a bicycle,

當然是買台腳踏車，

and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.

在過不久，他們也許會想買一台摩托車

But this is the world

這就是我們現今

we have today,

所處的世界，

no longer any gap.

再也沒有鴻溝了。

But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,

但是，窮人和有錢人

to the very richest over here is wider than ever.

之間的距離卻比以往還要大了

But there is a continuous world

這裡有個持續演變的世界

from walking, biking,

從步行，腳踏車，

driving, flying --

開車，到坐飛機——

there are people on all levels,

包含各階段的人

and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.

但大多數人存在於中間某處

This is the new world we have today

這就是我們今日所處的世界

in 2010.

在 2010 年。

And what will happen in the future?

那麼，未來會發生什麽事呢？

Well, I'm going to project

我將會預測

into 2050.

2050 年的世界。

I was in Shanghai recently,

最近我去了上海一趟，

and I listened to what's happening in China,

我聽到在中國發生的事。

and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,

我確信他們會迅速追上，

just as Japan did.

就像日本一樣

All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with

所有的預測——這一區的人口會成長

one to two or three percent.

1%到3%

[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.

這一區會增長7%、8%，然後停留在這裡，

They will start flying.

他們會開始起飛

And these

而這些

lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,

中低收入國家，也就是新興國家，

they will also forge forwards economically.

也會在經濟上往前進

And if,

而且，

but only if,

只有在

we invest in the right green technology --

我們正確地投資綠色科技的前提下——

so that we can avoid severe climate change,

我們才能避免嚴重的氣候變遷問題，

and energy can still be relatively cheap --

能源也可以維持便宜的價格——

then they will move all the way up here.

然後，他們才得以進一步移到這裡

And they will start to buy

接著，他們會開始買

electric cars.

電動車。

This is what we will find there.

這是我們目前所發現的情況

So what about the poorest two billion?

那麼，關於那些最貧窮的二十億人口...

What about the poorest two billion here?

那些最貧窮的二十億人口將會如何呢？

Will they move on?

他們會往前進嗎？

Well, here population [growth] comes in

嗯，這裡加入了新的人口，

because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,

在那兒，平均每個女人已經擁有兩、到三個孩子，

family planning is widely used,

在生育計劃的實施下，

and population growth is coming to an end.

人口成長即將告一段落

Here [among the poorest], population is growing.

在這裡，人口正在增加，

So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,

所以，在接下來的二十年中，這二十億人

increase to three billion,

會增加到三十億

and they will thereafter

此後，他們又將

increase to four billion.

成長到四十億

There is nothing --

除了核戰之外

but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --

沒有其他東西能夠

that can stop this [growth] from happening.

阻止他們人口繼續成長

Because we already have this [growth] in process.

因為這情況已經正在發生

But if, and only if,

只有在，

[the poorest] get out of poverty,

他們脫離貧窮的情況下，

they get education, they get improved child survival,

像是受教育、改善兒童存活率等，

they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,

他們才可以買腳踏車、手機，並且來到這，

then population growth

於是人口的成長

will stop in 2050.

才可以在 2050 年時停頓下來。

We cannot have people on this level

不能有人留在這個階段

looking for food and shoes

找食物、找鞋子，

because then we get continued population growth.

因為如此一來，人口成長將持續擴大。

And let me show you why

讓我透過

by converting back to the old-time

以往的數位科技

digital technology.

告訴你爲什麽

Here I have on the screen

在螢幕上，我有

my country bubbles.

國家泡泡

Every bubble is a country. The size is population.

每個泡泡代表國家，尺寸代表人口數量，

The colors show the continent.

顏色代表不同的大陸區塊

The yellow on there is the Americas;

在那兒，黃色是美洲；

dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;

深藍色是非洲；棕色是歐洲；

green is the Middle East

綠色是中東；

and this light blue is South Asia.

淺藍色是南亞

That's India and this is China. Size is population.

那是印度，這是中國。大小代表人口數量

Here I have children per woman:

這裡是 每個女人的小孩數目，

two children, four children, six children, eight children --

兩個孩子、四個孩子、六個孩子、八個孩子——

big families, small families.

大家庭、小家庭

The year is 1960.

這是 1960 年

And down here, child survival,

下面這裡是兒童的存活率，

the percentage of children surviving childhood

自孩提時期一直到上學為止

up to starting school:

兒童存活的百分比率

60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,

60%、70%、80%、90%

and almost 100 percent, as we have today

接近100%，如同我們今天

in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.

最富裕和最健康國家的比率

But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:

看，這就是我老師在 1960 年所談的世界，

one billion Western world here --

西方世界有十億人，

high child-survival, small families --

高度的兒童存活率，小家庭

and all the rest,

而其他所有地區，

the rainbow of developing countries,

這些開發中國家的彩虹區域裡，

with very large families

都是大家庭

and poor child survival.

和低度的兒童存活率。

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.

發生了什麽事？來吧，讓這世界開始吧！

Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?

看到了嗎？隨著年份的推移，兒童存活率上升了

They get soap, hygiene, education,

他們有肥皂、衛生、教育、

vaccination, penicillin

疫苗接種、抗生素

and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.

接著是家庭計劃，家庭的規模正逐漸縮小，

[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,

兒童存活率上升至 90%，家庭人口減少，

and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East

大多數的中東阿拉伯國家

is falling down there [to small families].

降到下方來

Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.

看，孟加拉趕上印度，

The whole emerging world

整個新興國家世界

joins the Western world

加入了西方世界

with good child survival

有了好的兒童存活率

and small family size,

和小家庭的規模。

but we still have the poorest billion.

但，我們仍然有最貧窮的十億人口

Can you see the poorest billion,

你們看到最貧困的十億人了嗎？

those [two] boxes I had over here?

在那箱子那邊？

They are still up here.

他們仍然在那

And they still have a child survival

兒童存活率依然

of only 70 to 80 percent,

只有70%~80%

meaning that if you have six children born,

這意謂著，如果六個孩子出生，

there will be at least four who survive

至少有四個可以活下來

to the next generation.

成為下一代

And the population will double in one generation.

人口數會在一個世代之間成長兩倍

So the only way

因此，唯一可以使

of really getting world population [growth] to stop

世界人口停止成長的方法

is to continue to improve child survival

就是繼續提高兒童的存活率

to 90 percent.

提高到 90%

That's why investments by Gates Foundation,

這就是爲什麽比爾蓋茲基金會、

UNICEF and aid organizations,

聯合國兒童基金會、其他組織、

together with national government in the poorest countries,

和最貧窮國家政府的投資

are so good;

是不錯的

because they are actually

因為，他們事實上

helping us to reach

幫我們達到

a sustainable population size of the world.

世界人口的永續規模

We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.

如果我們做對的事，可以使人口停在九十億

Child survival is the new green.

兒童存活率是一個新的夢想，

It's only by child survival

只有提高兒童存活率，

that we will stop population growth.

才可以停止人口成長。

And will it happen?

那再接下來會發生什麽事？

Well, I'm not an optimist,

我不是樂觀的人，

neither am I a pessimist.

也不是悲觀主義者；

I'm a very serious "possibilist."

我是一個「可能主義者」（possibilist）

It's a new category where we take emotion apart,

這是一個新的類別，在這裡我們拋開情感，

and we just work analytically with the world.

純粹地分析這個世界

It can be done.

這個問題是可以解決的

We can have a much more just world.

我們可以擁有一個更公平的世界

With green technology

用綠色科技

and with investments to alleviate poverty,

用投資減緩貧窮

and global governance,

加上全球治理，

the world can become like this.

世界可以變得像這樣

And look at the position of the old West.

看看舊西方西方國家的位置

Remember when this blue box was all alone,

還記得，當這邊只有藍色箱子的時候，

leading the world, living its own life.

領導全世界，過自己的生活

This will not happen [again].

這不會再發生了。

The role of the old West in the new world

過去西方世界的角色，在新的世界裡

is to become the foundation

會成為現代社會的

of the modern world --

基礎——

nothing more, nothing less.

不多不少剛剛好

But it's a very important role.

但他是個非常重要的角色

Do it well and get used to it.

把事情做好，適應這個角色

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）