I thought I would start with a very brief history of cities.

城市的發展歷史開始說起

Settlements typically began with people clustered around a well,

村落通常以

and the size of that settlement was roughly the distance you could walk

一群人圍著一口井開始，而村落的大小

with a pot of water on your head.

大約是你能頂著一壺水回家

In fact, if you fly over Germany, for example,

所能負荷的距離

and you look down and you see these hundreds of little villages,

事實上，舉個例子來說，如果你飛越德國

they're all about a mile apart.

俯瞰地面時你會看到上百個

You needed easy access to the fields.

小小的村莊，而各村莊間隔約一哩遠

And for hundreds, even thousands of years,

你必須能方便的到田裡工作

the home was really the center of life.

過去數百年，甚至是過去數千年

Life was very small for most people.

家就是生活的中心

It was a center of entertainment, of energy production, of work,

對大部分的人們而言，生活範圍很小

a center of health care.

家就是娛樂中心，能源生產中心，

That's where babies were born and people died.

工作中心，照護中心

Then, with industrialization, everything started to become centralized.

那裡也是寶寶出生、親人去世的地方

You had dirty factories that were moved to the outskirts of cities.

之後，隨著工業革命發展，所有的東西

Production was centralized in assembly plants.

都開始集中化

You had centralized energy production.

骯髒的工廠移到

Learning took place in schools.

城市外圍

Health care took place in hospitals.

貨物集中在裝配工廠中製造

And then you had networks that developed.

能源生產也集中化

You had water, sewer networks

學習要到學校。醫療照護

that allowed for this kind of unchecked expansion.

則移到了醫院

You had separated functions, increasingly.

然後各式網路發展起來

You had rail networks

送水及污水渠道使人們

that connected residential, industrial, commercial areas.

得以無限制擴張領域

You had auto networks.

分工現象愈來愈多

In fact, the model was really, give everybody a car,

火車把住宅區

build roads to everything,

工業區及商業區連起來。你也有了公路系統

and give people a place to park when they get there.

事實上，過去的模式的確是給每人一輛車

It was not a very functional model.

造公路到每個地方，而且讓人們到了目的地後

And we still live in that world,

有個地方可以停車。這並不是功能很好的模式

and this is what we end up with.

但我們仍然生活在這樣的模式裡

So you have the sprawl of LA,

而這就是這種發展模式的結果

the sprawl of Mexico City.

這是向四面八方無限蔓延的洛杉磯市

You have these unbelievable new cities in China,

向四面八方無限蔓延的墨西哥市

which you might call tower sprawl.

還有這些令人難以置信的中國新都市

They're all building cities

你或許可以稱這些為向天空無限蔓延的巨塔

on the model that we invented in the '50s and '60s,

他們正以我們在50及60年代所發展的模式

which is really obsolete, I would argue,

來建造都市，我要說這模式真的很過時了

and there are hundreds and hundreds of new cities

而全球還有成百上千的

that are being planned all over the world.

新都市開發計劃

In China alone, 300 million people, some say 400 million people,

僅在中國，就有三億人口

will move to the city over the next 15 years.

有人說是四億人口

That means building the equivalent

會在未來15年內遷徙到都市

of the entire built infrastructure of the US in 15 years.

這意味著中國要在15年內

Imagine that.

建立相當於美國整體的基礎建設

And we should all care about this whether you live in cities or not.

可以想像嗎？

Cities will account for 90 percent of the population growth,

我們都應該對此關心

80 percent of the global CO2, 75 percent of energy use,

不論你住在都市與否

but at the same time it's where people want to be,

都市要對90%的人口成長

increasingly.

80%的全球二氧化碳排放量，75%的能源使用負責任

More than half the people now in the world live in cities,

但同時，都市也是人們

and that will just continue to escalate.

愈來愈想去的地方

Cities are places of celebration, personal expression.

現在，全球一半以上的人住在都市裡

You have the flash mobs of pillow fights that --

而且人數還會逐步上升

I've been to a couple. They're quite fun.

都市是歡慶、表達個人的地方

You have --

你有快閃族在打枕頭仗—

(Laughter)

我去參加過幾次。還挺好玩的。（笑聲）

Cities are where most of the wealth is created,

你有—（笑聲）

and particularly in the developing world, it's where women find opportunities.

都市也是創造大部份財富的地方

That's a lot of the reason why cities are growing very quickly.

特別是在開發中國家

Now there's some trends that will impact cities.

在那裡女人有很多機會。這也是

First of all, work is becoming distributed and mobile.

都市成長如此快速的主要原因

The office building is basically obsolete for doing private work.

那麼，有一些趨勢會影響都市發展

The home, once again, because of distributed computation --

首先，工作變得分散並且機動性高

Communication is becoming a center of life,

在辦公大樓內做私人工作

so it's a center of production and learning and shopping and health care

基本上已經過時了

and all of these things that we used to think of

「家」再度因為分散式計算，即通訊設備

as taking place outside of the home.

而變成生活的中心

And increasingly, everything that people buy,

所以家是製造、學習、購物

every consumer product,

醫療，及其他我們原本已經習慣

in one way or another, can be personalized.

要在家以外發生的事情的中心

And that's a very important trend to think about.

而且人們想辦法把買的每一樣物品

So this is my image of the city of the future.

每一種消費產品個人化的現象

(Laughter)

也愈來愈多

In that it's a place for people, you know.

這是值得思考的重要趨勢

Maybe not the way people dress, but --

所以這是我想像中的未來城市的樣子

You know, the question now is,

（笑聲）

how can we have all the good things that we identify with cities

因為都市是一個「人」的地方，你知道

without all the bad things?

大家大概不會穿成這樣，但是 --

This is Bangalore.

你知道真正的問題是我們要如何

It took me a couple of hours to get a few miles in Bangalore last year.

保有我們認為都市應該有的好東西

So with cities, you also have congestion and pollution

而除去那些不好的事情？

and disease and all these negative things.

這是班加羅爾。去年我在那裡要花好幾個小時

How can we have the good stuff without the bad?

才能在班加羅爾街上移動數哩遠

So we went back and started looking at the great cities

所以有了都市，你也就有了交通阻塞及汙染

that evolved before the cars.

疾病，及那些不好的東西

Paris was a series of these little villages that came together,

我們要如何去蕪存菁？

and you still see that structure today.

所以我們回溯歷史，並且開始研究那些

The 20 arrondissements of Paris are these little neighborhoods.

在汽車發展前就很偉大的城市

Most of what people need in life can be within a five- or 10-minute walk.

巴黎是由一系列的小村莊

And if you look at the data, when you have that kind of a structure,

組合起來的，至今你仍然能看到這個結構

you get a very even distribution

巴黎的20區

of the shops and the physicians and the pharmacies

就是由這些小社區組成的

and the cafes in Paris.

人們生活所需的大部分物品

And then you look at cities that evolved after the automobile,

都能在步行5到10分鐘之內買到

and it's not that kind of a pattern.

如果你研究一下數據，你會發現在巴黎

There's very little that's within a five-minute walk

因為這樣的組成結構，你會看到分佈平均的

of most areas of places like Pittsburgh.

商店、診所及藥局

Not to pick on Pittsburgh,

及餐館

but most American cities really have evolved this way.

然後你看看那些在車子發明之後

So we said, well, let's look at new cities,

才發展出的城市，不走這種模式

and we're involved in a couple of new city projects in China.

大部份像匹茲堡這樣的地方，很少有

So we said, let's start with that neighborhood cell.

步行五分鐘之內能到的商店

We think of it as a compact urban cell.

我不是故意要挑匹茲堡，但是大部分的美國城市

So provide most of what most people want within that 20-minute walk.

的確是以這種模式發展

This can also be a resilient electrical microgrid,

所以我們說，我們會，讓我們看看新都市

community heating, power, communication networks, etc.

目前我們正參與幾個中國的都市發展計劃

can be concentrated there.

所以我們說，讓我們從發展細胞社區開始

Stewart Brand would put a micronuclear reactor

我們把這視為小型的都會細胞社區

right in the center, probably.

它在步行20分鐘地區內

And he might be right.

提供多數人想要的東西

And then we can form, in effect, a mesh network.

這同時也是一個動態輸電微網

It's something of an Internet typology pattern,

社區暖氣供應站、電力供應站、通訊網路站

so you can have a series of these neighborhoods.

等等設施都可以集中在此

You can dial up the density --

（美國環保運動先驅）斯圖爾特•布蘭德可能會放一個

about 20,000 people per cell, if it's Cambridge.

微核子反應器在這個小細胞的中心（笑聲）

Go up to 50,000 if it's Manhattan density.

很有可能喔！

You connect everything with mass transit

如此我們可以形成一個實際網狀網路

and you provide most of what most people need within that neighborhood.

很像網際網路類型學的模式

You can begin to develop a whole typology of streetscapes

所以你可以有一系列這樣子的小社區

and the vehicles that can go on them.

你可以增加細胞社區人口密度--如果是劍橋，

I won't go through all of them. I'll just show one.

就增大到可容納二萬人。如果是曼哈頓

This is Boulder. It's a great example of kind of a mobility parkway,

就增大到五萬人。你把所有的東西

a superhighway for joggers and bicyclists,

用大眾運輸連起來，而且你在細胞社區內提供

where you can go from one end of the city to the other

大多數人所需之物品

without crossing the street,

你可以開始發展一整套街道景觀類型學

and they also have bike-sharing, which I'll get into in a minute.

並且設定什麼車子可以通過。我不要講所有細節

This is even a more interesting solution

我舉一個例就好

in Seoul, Korea.

這是博爾德市。這是個「移動林蔭大道」的好例子

They took the elevated highway, they got rid of it,

一條給慢跑者及單車客的「高速公路」

they reclaimed the street, the river down below,

讓你可以從城市的這一端走到另一端

below the street,

不需要穿越馬路，而且他們還有個單車共享計劃

and you can go from one end of Seoul to the other

等一下我會談這個

without crossing a pathway for cars.

在南韓首爾這個解決方案更有趣

The High Line in Manhattan is very similar.

他們把原有的高架道路拆掉

You have these rapidly emerging bike lanes all over the world.

復原地面街道，在底下的暗渠變為明渠

I lived in Manhattan for 15 years.

所以河流在街道底下，你可以從首爾的這一端

I went back a couple of weekends ago,

走到另一端，不用穿過車道

took this photograph of these fabulous new bike lanes that they have installed.

曼哈頓的 Highline（重整廢棄高架鐵道）也很類似

They're still not to where Copenhagen is,

這些快速興起的自行車道

where something like 42 percent of the trips within the city

在全世界盛行。我曾在曼哈頓住過15年

are by bicycle.

前幾個星期我回去看了一下，照了這張照片

It's mostly just because they have fantastic infrastructure there.

他們蓋了幾條非常棒的新自行車道

We actually did exactly the wrong thing in Boston.

但是仍然比不上哥本哈根，在那裡

The Big Dig --

大約百分之四十二的城內旅行

(Laughter)

是騎腳踏車完成。主要是因為他們有

So we got rid of the highway but we created a traffic island,

非常棒的基礎建設

and it's certainly not a mobility pathway for anything other than cars.

我們其實也在波士頓作了件同樣的蠢事

Mobility on demand is something we've been thinking about,

我們--這個「大隧道計畫」（Big Dig）--（笑聲）

so we think we need an ecosystem of these shared-use vehicles

所以我們把高速公路拆掉，卻蓋了一個安全島

connected to mass transit.

很肯定這條「移動大道」除了車以外，沒有東西

These are some of the vehicles that we've been working on.

能在上面移動

But shared use is really key.

「隨選自由行」是我們一直在想的東西

If you share a vehicle, you can have at least four people use one vehicle,

所以我們認為我們需要一個生態系統

as opposed to one.

把這些共享車輛與大眾運輸系統連起來

We have Hubway here in Boston, the Vélib' system in Paris.

這些是我們一直在設計的車輛種類

We've been developing, at the Media Lab, this little city car

但是真正的關鍵是共享。如果你有一部車

that is optimized for shared use in cities.

你可以讓至少四人乘坐

We got rid of all the useless things like engines and transmissions.

而不是一個人開

We moved everything to the wheels,

在波士頓我們有Hubway；在巴黎叫Vélib' （均為單車共享租用計劃）

so you have the drive motor,

我們在麻省理工的媒體實驗室計劃這個小小的

the steering motor, the breaking -- all in the wheel.

車子，專門設計給都市人共享

That left the chassis unencumbered, so you can do things like fold,

我們把那些沒用的東西拿掉，像是引擎

so you can fold this little vehicle up to occupy a tiny little footprint.

排檔等等。我們把所有的東西都移到輪子上

This was a video that was on European television last week

所以驅動馬達、駕駛馬達

showing the Spanish Minister of Industry driving this little vehicle,

還有剎車都在輪子上

and when it's folded, it can spin.

這樣底盤就不受限制。你可以做像是

You don't need reverse. You don't need parallel parking.

摺疊這樣的事，所以你可以把這個小車子折起來

You just spin and go directly in.

這樣就只佔一個小小的空間

(Laughter)

這是上星期在歐洲電視上放的一段影片

So we've been working with a company to commercialize this.

展示西班牙工業部長

My PhD student Ryan Chin presented these early ideas

駕駛這個小車，這個車折起來後還會轉圈圈

two years ago at a TEDx conference.

你不需要預訂，不需要路邊停車

So what's interesting is,

你只要轉一轉它然後直直停進去（笑聲）

then if you begin to add new things to it, like autonomy,

所以我們一直在與一家公司合作

you get out of the car, you park at your destination,

要量產上市這部車。我的博士班學生秦來恩（Ryan Chin）曾在

you pat it on the butt, it goes and it parks itself, it charges itself,

二年前的TEDx研討會上發表過本計畫早期的發展

and you can get something like seven times as many vehicles

所以有趣的是，如果你開始在上面

in a given area as conventional cars,

加新東西，像是自動化程式，你下了車

and we think this is the future.

你停在你的目的地後，拍拍它的屁股

Actually, we could do this today. It's not really a problem.

它可以自己去停車，還會自己充電

We can combine shared use and folding and autonomy

你可以讓比原來多七倍的車輛

and we get something like 28 times the land utilization

停在一個普通停車場裡

with that kind of strategy.

而我們認為這是未來的展望。其實今天就可以這麼做

One of our graduate students then says,

這真的不是什麼問題

well, how does a driverless car communicate with pedestrians?

我們可以結合共享、折疊及自動化

You have nobody to make eye contact with.

使用這種策略我們可以

You don't know if it's going to run you over.

讓土地使用增加28倍

So he's developing strategies

然後我們有一個研究生說，嗯

so the vehicle can communicate with pedestrians, so --

一部無人駕駛的車子要怎麼跟行人溝通？

(Laughter)

沒人在上面跟你眼神接觸

So the headlights are eyeballs, the pupils can dilate,

你不知道這玩意是不是要輾過你

we have directional audio, we can throw sound directly at people.

所以他在發展一些策略，讓這部車子可以

What I love about this project

跟行人溝通，所以 --（笑聲）

is he solved a problem that doesn't exist yet, so --

所以車頭燈是眼珠，瞳孔會放大

(Laughter)

我們有定向的音訊，可以直接對著人

We also think that we can democratize access to bike lanes.

播放聲音

You know, bike lanes are mostly used by young guys in stretchy pants. So --

我喜歡這個計劃，因為他未雨稠繆

(Laughter)

這問題基本上還不存在。所以（笑聲）

We think we can develop a vehicle that operates on bike lanes,

（笑聲）（掌聲）

accessible to elderly and disabled, women in skirts, businesspeople,

我們也認為這種車可以讓自行車道的使用更民主化

and address the issues of energy congestion, mobility,

你知道，自行車道的使用者大部分都是年輕人

aging and obesity simultaneously.

穿著緊身褲，你知道，所以 --（笑聲）

That's our challenge.

我們認為我們可以發展一種車子

This is an early design for this little three-wheel.

可以在單車道上駕駛，老人及殘障者皆可使用

It's an electronic bike.

穿裙子的女人、商人都可以，並且同時解決

You have to pedal to operate it in a bike lane,

能源擁塞、行動力、老化及肥胖問題

but if you're an older person, that's a switch.

那是我們的挑戰

If you're a healthy person, you might have to work really hard to go fast.

這是這個小三輪車的原型

You can dial in 40 calories going into work

它是輛電動單車，你得踩踏板

and 500 going home, when you can take a shower.

才能在騎在單車道上，但如果你是位老人家

We hope to have that built this fall.

那裡有個開關轉成電動。如果你很健康

Housing is another area where we can really improve.

你得非常努力的踩才能騎快

Mayor Menino in Boston says

你可以設定去上班時消耗40卡

lack of affordable housing for young people

回家時500卡，因為回家可以洗澡

is one of the biggest problems the city faces.

我們希望能在這個秋天製造出來

Developers say, OK, we'll build little teeny apartments.

住宅是另一個還有進步空間的地方

People say, we don't really want to live in a little teeny conventional apartment.

波士頓市長馬尼諾說，缺乏年輕人買的起的房子

So we're saying, let's build a standardized chassis,

是本市面臨的最大困難

much like our car.

之一

Let's bring advanced technology into the apartment,

都市計畫的人回應說，好啊，我們來蓋一些小小的公寓

technology-enabled infill,

買房的人則說，我們真的不想住在小小的

give people the tools within this open-loft chassis

普通公寓裡

to go through a process of defining

所以我們主張，讓我們蓋一些標準化的屋殼

what their needs and values and activities are,

就像剛剛那部車，然後我們把最先進科技

and then a matching algorithm will match a unique assembly

打造的內裝放入公寓中

of integrated infill components,