technologist and astronomer called William Herschel

名叫威廉•赫歇爾，

noticed an object on the sky that

在浩瀚的夜空中觀測到一個天體，

didn't quite move the way the rest of the stars did.

其運行方式與其他恒星大相徑庭。

And Herschel's recognition that something was different,

赫歇爾覺得這個天體不同尋常，

that something wasn't quite right,

有些不太對勁，

was the discovery of a planet,

事實上他發現的是一顆行星，

the planet Uranus,

也就是我們熟知的天王星。

a name that has entertained

天王星這個名字

countless generations of children,

讓一代又一代年輕人興趣盎然，

but a planet that overnight

然而，這顆高懸於天際的行星

doubled the size of our known solar system.

一經發現便讓人類已知的 太陽系範圍整整擴大了一倍。

Just last month, NASA announced the discovery

就在上個月，美國太空總署 (NASA) 宣佈其又發現了

of 517 new planets

517 顆環繞近地恒星

in orbit around nearby stars,

運行的行星，

almost doubling overnight the number of planets

幾乎在一夜間使銀河系中

we know about within our galaxy.

已知的行星數量翻了一倍。

So astronomy is constantly being transformed by this

人類收集的資料資訊 為天文學的不斷進步

capacity to collect data,

注入了源源不斷的動力，

and with data almost doubling every year,

而這些資料資訊幾乎 以每年翻一倍的速度增長，

within the next two decades, me may even

未來二十年內，人類甚至可以

reach the point for the first time in history

首次實現有史以來的一個夢想：

where we've discovered the majority of the galaxies

探索浩瀚宇宙中

within the universe.

的大部分星系。

But as we enter this era of big data,

但是，人類開闢的是一個大資料資訊的時代，

what we're beginning to find is there's a difference

我們開始探究的是

between more data being just better

資料資訊越多越好

and more data being different,

與資料資訊越多差別越大， 兩者之間有何差異，

capable of changing the questions we want to ask,

這足以改變我們想問的一些問題，

and this difference is not about how much data we collect,

這個差異並不在於我們收集多少資料資訊，

it's whether those data open new windows

而是，那些資料資訊是否可以 為人類開啟一扇通往深邃宇宙的窗戶，

into our universe,

那些資料資訊是否有助於 改變人類對觀測天空的方式。

whether they change the way we view the sky.

下一扇通往宇宙的窗戶會有何奧秘呢？

So what is the next window into our universe?

人類將如何譜寫天文學的下一個篇章？

What is the next chapter for astronomy?

好，我會向諸位介紹一下

Well, I'm going to show you some of the tools and the technologies

未來十年內人類將開發的一些工具與技術，

that we're going to develop over the next decade,

這些先進技術，連同人類

and how these technologies,

在運用資料資訊上展現的聰明才智，

together with the smart use of data,

將再一次開啟一扇通往宇宙的窗戶

may once again transform astronomy

使天文學發生革命性的變化，

by opening up a window into our universe,

時間之窗。

the window of time.

為什麼是時間？好，時間與起源

Why time? Well, time is about origins,

和進化息息相關。

and it's about evolution.

太陽系的起源、

The origins of our solar system,

太陽系是如何形成的、

how our solar system came into being,

有什麼不同尋常或獨特之處嗎？

is it unusual or special in any way?

關於宇宙的演化。

About the evolution of our universe.

為什麼宇宙處於不斷的膨脹中？

Why our universe is continuing to expand,

促使宇宙膨脹的

and what is this mysterious dark energy

神秘暗能量是什麼呢？

that drives that expansion?

首先，我要向諸位介紹科學技術

But first, I want to show you how technology

將有望改變人類對觀測天空的方式。

is going to change the way we view the sky.

不妨設想一下，如果你在

So imagine if you were sitting

智利北部山區

in the mountains of northern Chile

仰望西天，

looking out to the west

面向太平洋方向，

towards the Pacific Ocean

就在日出前幾個小時。

a few hours before sunrise.

這便是你將親眼目睹的夜空，

This is the view of the night sky that you would see,

景色美麗動人，

and it's a beautiful view,

銀河懸掛於天際。

with the Milky Way just peeking out over the horizon.

但眼前是一幅靜止的美景，

but it's also a static view,

而很多時候這也正是 我們腦海中勾勒出的宇宙：

and in many ways, this is the way we think of our universe:

永恆不滅且一成不變。

eternal and unchanging.

但宇宙絕不是靜止的。

But the universe is anything but static.

宇宙處於永恆的變化中， 變化時間各不相同

It constantly changes on timescales of seconds

有短短幾秒，也有幾十億年。

to billions of years.

不同的星系

Galaxies merge, they collide

在以幾十萬英里的時速融合、碰撞。

at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour.

恒星不斷誕生，也不斷消亡，

Stars are born, they die,

這些絢麗多彩的畫面展示了恒星的爆炸。

they explode in these extravagant displays.

事實上，如果可以回到

In fact, if we could go back

智利遙望寧靜的夜空，

to our tranquil skies above Chile,

我們讓時間長河向前流淌

and we allow time to move forward

一覽未來十年的天空， 會呈現出什麼模樣，

to see how the sky might change over the next year,

你會觀察到宇宙的脈動

the pulsations that you see

正是超新星，恒星在消亡中留下的殘餘，

are supernovae, the final remnants of a dying star

爆炸、發出耀眼的光芒， 然後逐漸消失在視野中，

exploding, brightening and then fading from view,

任何一顆超新星

each one of these supernovae

都比太陽亮上五十億倍，

five billion times the brightness of our sun,

因此，人類在相當遙遠的地方 就能發現它們的蹤跡

so we can see them to great distances

但其光芒轉瞬即逝。

but only for a short amount of time.

宇宙中每一秒都會 有十顆超新星發生爆炸。

Ten supernova per second explode somewhere

如果我們可以聽見爆炸聲，

in our universe.

會同一袋爆米花爆開的聲音一樣。

If we could hear it,

超新星的光芒逐漸暗淡，

it would be popping like a bag of popcorn.

這不只是亮度的變化。

Now, if we fade out the supernovae,

天空處於永恆的運動之中。

it's not just brightness that changes.

你會看到大量天體源源不斷地掠過天空

Our sky is in constant motion.

這些是環繞太陽運行的小行星，

This swarm of objects you see streaming across the sky

正是這些變化與運動

are asteroids as they orbit our sun,

以及天體系統的動態變化

and it's these changes and the motion

讓我們得以創建宇宙的模型，

and it's the dynamics of the system

便於我們解讀過去，展望未來。

that allow us to build our models for our universe,

然而，過去十年裡，我們使用的望遠鏡

to predict its future and to explain its past.

其設計初衷並非用於 收集如此大規模的資料資訊。

But the telescopes we've used over the last decade

哈伯太空望遠鏡：

are not designed to capture the data at this scale.

在過去二十五年內，

The Hubble Space Telescope:

已為人類生成了部分宇宙深處

for the last 25 years it's been producing

最生動具體的畫面，

some of the most detailed views

不過，若要使用哈伯太空望遠鏡 去還原一幅天空全景圖，

of our distant universe,

則需要彙聚 1300 萬個獨立的景象，

but if you tried to use the Hubble to create an image

即使一次也得歷時 120 年之久。

of the sky, it would take 13 million individual images,

面對這一形勢，我們必須開發新技術

about 120 years to do this just once.

並建造全新的望遠鏡，

So this is driving us to new technologies

這些望遠鏡不僅觀測距離更遠，

and new telescopes,

讓人類深入宇宙腹地。

telescopes that can go faint

而且觀測視野更寬，

to look at the distant universe

可迅速拍攝天空中的一舉一動，

but also telescopes that can go wide

像大口徑全景巡天望遠鏡之類的望遠鏡

to capture the sky as rapidly as possible,

又稱為 LSST。

telescopes like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope,

縱觀天文學歷史，

or the LSST,

在所有最有趣的科學實驗中

possibly the most boring name ever

這個名稱算是最最無聊的，

for one of the most fascinating experiments

事實上，你如果非得有個名稱，

in the history of astronomy,

那千萬別讓科學家或工程師來命名，

in fact proof, if you should need it,

甚至不要讓他們為你的孩子起名字。（笑聲）

that you should never allow a scientist or an engineer

LSST 工程已開工建設。

to name anything, not even your children. (Laughter)

有望於2020年年底前開始收集資料資訊。

We're building the LSST.

我將為諸位解讀一下我們的思維方式

We expect it to start taking data by the end of this decade.

這將轉變我們對宇宙的認識，

I'm going to show you how we think

因為 LSST 拍攝的每個圖像

it's going to transform our views of the universe,

相當於哈伯太空望遠鏡拍攝的 3000 個圖像，

because one image from the LSST

LSST 的每個圖像覆蓋了天空中 3.5 度的區域，

is equivalent to 3,000 images

相當於七個滿月的寬度。

from the Hubble Space Telescope,

如何拍攝這麼大的圖像呢？

each image three and a half degrees on the sky,

那就得製造有史以來最大的數位相機，

seven times the width of the full moon.

採用的技術與你的手機鏡頭

Well, how do you capture an image at this scale?

或在大街上購買的數位相機 採用的技術完全相同，

Well, you build the largest digital camera in history,

而眼下這個數位相機的鏡頭 足足寬5.5英尺，

using the same technology you find in the cameras in your cell phone

相當於一輛福斯金龜車的長度，

or in the digital cameras you can buy in the High Street,

這個鏡頭拍攝的每個圖像 有30億個圖元。

but now at a scale that is five and a half feet across,

因此，如果你想一睹 LSST 全解析度圖像的風采，

about the size of a Volkswagen Beetle,

哪怕只是一個圖像，

where one image is three billion pixels.

也得用 1500 個高清電視螢幕。

So if you wanted to look at an image

這台相機將用於拍攝天空的全景，

in its full resolution, just a single LSST image,

每隔 20 秒鐘拍攝一張照片，

it would take about 1,500 high-definition TV screens.

永不停息地掃描天空。

And this camera will image the sky,

這樣只要三個夜晚， 我們就能掃描一次天空，

taking a new picture every 20 seconds,

重新繪製一幅智利上空的天空全景圖。

constantly scanning the sky

這台望遠鏡會在其生命週期內

so every three nights, we'll get a completely new view

探測 400 億恒星與星系，

of the skies above Chile.

這也會是我們首次

Over the mission lifetime of this telescope,

能探索的宇宙天體數量

it will detect 40 billion stars and galaxies,

超過地球上的人口數。

and that will be for the first time

目前，我們可以按

we'll have detected more objects in our universe

百萬位元組與十億位元組， 通過研究數十億個天體

than people on the Earth.

來解讀宇宙，

Now, we can talk about this

但如果想要親身感受一下

in terms of terabytes and petabytes

這款相機收集的訊息量，

and billions of objects,

好比同時播放已錄製的每一個 TED 演講，

but a way to get a sense of the amount of data

一天二十四小時，

that will come off this camera

一周七天不停地播放，可以長達連續十年。

is that it's like playing every TED Talk ever recorded

若要處理這些資料資訊，則如同

simultaneously, 24 hours a day,

在所有訪談節目中搜索

seven days a week, for 10 years.

每一個全新的觀點與理念，

And to process this data means

關注影片中的每個細節。

searching through all of those talks

查看每一幀內容

for every new idea and every new concept,

有何變化。

looking at each part of the video

我們正在開闢一個科學研究的新紀元，

to see how one frame may have changed

顛覆天文學研究的傳統模式，

from the next.

在全新的模式下人們 將運用軟體技術與演算法則

And this is changing the way that we do science,

挖掘隱藏在資料資訊中的無窮奧秘，

changing the way that we do astronomy,

屆時軟體技術對科學研究至關重要，

to a place where software and algorithms

其重要性並不亞於這些 尚未問世的望遠鏡與相機。

have to mine through this data,

目前，這個專案將為人類

where the software is as critical to the science

開啟成千上萬的探索發現之門，

as the telescopes and the cameras that we've built.

但我今天只向諸位講述

Now, thousands of discoveries

有關起源與進化的兩個理念

will come from this project,

這兩個理念也會隨著人們

but I'm just going to tell you about two

對大規模資料資訊的研究而不斷發展。

of the ideas about origins and evolution

過去五年內，NASA 已在近地恒星

that may be transformed by our access

附近發現了 1000 多個行星系，

to data at this scale.

但我們力求探尋的這些行星系

In the last five years, NASA has discovered

並不十分類似於我們的太陽系。

over 1,000 planetary systems

我們面臨的一個問題是

around nearby stars,

究竟是人類對宇宙的觀測還不夠全面，

but the systems we're finding

還是我們太陽系的起源

aren't much like our own solar system,

本來就與眾不同？

and one of the questions we face is

如果我們要解答這一問題，

is it just that we haven't been looking hard enough

就得深入瞭解

or is there something special or unusual

太陽系的前世與今生，

about how our solar system formed?

這些具體資訊十分重要。

And if we want to answer that question,

因此，時下當我們仰望星空，

we have to know and understand

無數小行星掠過天際，

the history of our solar system in detail,

彷彿是太陽系中遺落的殘骸。

and it's the details that are crucial.

小行星所處的位置

So now, if we look back at the sky,

就像海王星與木星早期運行軌道，

at our asteroids that were streaming across the sky,

離太陽更近的時候在

these asteroids are like the debris of our solar system.

宇宙中留下的指紋，

The positions of the asteroids

這些體積巨大的行星在太陽系中遷徙，

are like a fingerprint of an earlier time

一路遺落不計其數的小行星。

when the orbits of Neptune and Jupiter

因此，探究小行星就像

were much closer to the sun,

在進行法醫鑒定，

and as these giant planets migrated through our solar system,

對整個太陽系的法醫鑒定。

they were scattering the asteroids in their wake.

但為此，我們需要距離，

So studying the asteroids

通過天體的運行，可以得知距離，

is like performing forensics,

而由於對時間掌握， 我們才瞭解了天體的運行。

performing forensics on our solar system,

我們可以從中得到什麼啟示呢？

but to do this, we need distance,

你是否注意到一些黃色小行星

and we get the distance from the motion,

匆匆掠過螢幕，

and we get the motion because of our access to time.

這些小行星的運行速度很快，

So what does this tell us?

是因為它們距離地球最近。

Well, if you look at the little yellow asteroids

有朝一日人類或許會派 太空船造訪這些行星

flitting across the screen,

開發上面的礦產資源，

these are the asteroids that are moving fastest,

但這些小行星或許會在未來的某一天

because they're closest to us, closest to Earth.

撞擊地球，

These are the asteroids we may one day

就像 6000 萬年前的那次撞擊

send spacecraft to, to mine them for minerals,

造成了恐龍的滅絕，

but they're also the asteroids that may one day

也像上世紀初葉

impact the Earth,

一顆小行星徑直墜落於西伯利亞，

like happened 60 million years ago

1000 平方英里的森林頓時化為烏有，

with the extinction of the dinosaurs,

甚至就在去年，有一顆小行星 在俄羅斯上空的大氣層內燒毀，

or just at the beginning of the last century,

釋放的能量相當於一個小型核彈。

when an asteroid wiped out

因此，對太陽系進行法醫鑒定

almost 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest,

不只能讓我們瞭解過去，

or even just last year, as one burnt up over Russia,

更可以展望未來，包括人類自身的未來。

releasing the energy of a small nuclear bomb.

眼下只要我們得知距離，

So studying the forensics of our solar system

就能觀察到小行星以其自然的方式，

doesn't just tell us about the past,

環繞太陽運行。

it can also predict the future, including our future.

所以，諸位在這幅景象中 看到的每一個亮點

Now when we get distance,

都是一顆真實的小行星。

we get to see the asteroids in their natural habitat,

憑藉這顆小行星在空中的運行狀況， 就能計算出其運行軌跡。

in orbit around the sun.

這些小行星的顏色顯示了其組成物質，

So every point in this visualization that you can see

中心部分是乾燥的岩石，

is a real asteroid.

而表面卻粗糙不平，富含水分，

Its orbit has been calculated from its motion across the sky.

含水量較高的小新星上可能會有

The colors reflect the composition of these asteroids,

和地球上一模一樣的海洋，

dry and stony in the center,

地球上的海洋正是小行星 早年撞擊地球後留下的。

water-rich and primitive towards the edge,

由於 LSST 不僅觀察視野更寬，

water-rich asteroids which may have seeded

而且探測距離更遠。

the oceans and the seas that we find on our planet

我們將在遠離太陽系中心的區域

when they bombarded the Earth at an earlier time.

一窺這些小行星的身影，

Because the LSST will be able to go faint

觀察木星與火星軌道之外的小行星，

and not just wide,

跟蹤距離太陽

we will be able to see these asteroids

幾乎一光年之遙的彗星與小行星。

far beyond the inner part of our solar system,

我們會更加詳細地解讀這些照片

to asteroids beyond the orbits of Neptune and Mars,

將解讀細節從 10 個提高到 100 個，

to comets and asteroids that may exist

就能找到一些問題的答案，例如

almost a light year from our sun.

是否有證據顯示木星軌道之外還存在行星，

And as we increase the detail of this picture,

在可能撞擊地球的小行星威脅地球之前很久

increasing the detail by factors of 10 to 100,

便鎖定它們的行蹤，

we will be able to answer questions such as,

並解答太陽只有一個

is there evidence for planets outside the orbit of Neptune,

還是宇宙中存在一大把這樣的恒星，