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Syria's military and ISIS may be sworn enemies
but instead of wiping each other off the battlefield they've been delicately
dancing around each other
up until now Assad and ISIS have been tactically avoiding each other
choosing instead to focus on eliminating the rebel opposition
ahead of a possible final showdown. It's a confrontation that's coming
and both sides know it. Assad and ISIS have yet to really collide
that's because they've seen the mutual benefit in crushing the rebel opposition
first
for Assad eliminating these rebel groups could secure his legitimacy
because that would leave the world with the choice between Assad or ISIS
this is also leave the US and its allies without any groups to support on the
ground
thus reducing the risk of possible military intervention against the regime
it's also a matter of priorities, ISIS is occupying areas that Assad's forces have
already largely withdrawn
mostly in northern Syria. The rebels on the other hand are fighting for Syria's
industrial and commercial cities
like Aleppo, Idlib, Homs, and Damascus
these cities are vital to the regime's security
ISIS on the other hand, they want to dominate the opposition
and incorporate them into their own movement - that's because eventually
ISIS is going to have to take on Assad's government - and they want the battlefield
clear of other potential competitors
ISIS does not view the rebels as natural allies
because they both have fundamentally different goals - the rebels main goal is
to remove Assad from power
and establish a new state and its place - ISIS on the other hand wants to
continue expanding to at least the Mediterranean
while consolidating its gains in defensive positions. They know if they
over stretch they'll be vulnerable to rebel counterattacks from the North
ISIS says "it wants Assad gone"
but if ISIS was really interested in fighting the regime
they would have gone to Aleppo a city besieged by Assad's forces
instead they chose to fight for Kobani - where there is no syrian army presence
these developments are nothing new to the rebels they've been squeezed between
the two for some time now
and groups that have cooperated with the US have had the most severe punishment
between furious strikes from Assad to remove any potential allies to the West
and Islamic factions trying to steal their equipment and money
have left some rebel groups
shadows of their former selves - Signs are emerging that the final showdown may
soon be approaching
in the past several weeks Assad's forces have been stepping up their attacks
against ISIS
this could be for a couple reasons First is for political reasons
Assad needs to boost his legitimacy in the face of a Western Coalition
battling ISIS would quell any rumors that the two are working together
and solidify a size larger than its him vs the terrorists
possibly the only choice I'd be in his favor second is for strategic reasons
Assad is exploiting the us-led war against I says
the regime things that now is the best time to attack I says
because they're distracted in Iraq and says the US is destroying them from the
air
a site has a chance to open up a two-front war against I sis
aside also hope this leads to some sort of military
coordination between him and the US which reduces the gym a scene
and finally a site has largely avoided I says because he wanted to let them fight
each other
and they have ices has weighed out rivals and its territory
and played a major role in breaking the Free Syrian Army know their roles coming
to an end
and the regime wants to dislodge ices from key positions before its
consolidated
such as a top by air base and a rock a province
ice is also knows a confrontation is coming
and has begun preparations we're seeing heavy equipment
tanks trucks artillery being moved from Iraq to Syria
the us-led airstrikes could also be prompted this
even also seeking cease-fires with rebels opposition forces
this could be in an effort to clear the battlefield and build coalitions
be realize the benefit of having partners after they were defeated at
kabbani
they're not going prepare for Assad and redirect those resources
the front lines are beginning to shift now that the Syrian army as close as
siege around a little