António Guterres: Pleasure.

安東尼奧．古特雷斯：榮幸之至。

BG: Let's start with a figure.

BG: 讓我們從數據開始。

During 2015, almost one million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe

2015年期間，將近有 100 萬難民和移民

from many different countries,

從不同國家湧入歐洲，

of course, from Syria and Iraq, but also from Afghanistan

當然，也有來自敘利亞及伊拉克， 也有來自於阿富汗、

and Bangladesh and Eritrea and elsewhere.

孟加拉、厄立特里亞等其他國家的。

And there have been reactions of two different kinds:

人民對此亦有兩種不同的反應：

welcoming parties and border fences.

有歡迎的國家也有拒絕的國家。

But I want to look at it a little bit

但我想從短期和長期的角度

from the short-term and the long-term perspective.

來探討這個問題。

And the first question is very simple:

第一條問題十分簡單：

Why has the movement of refugees spiked so fast in the last six months?

為何難民潮近六個月急速增加？

AG: Well, I think, basically, what triggered this huge increase

AG：我認為，基本上，會有這麼大的升幅

was the Syrian refugee group.

主要是由敘利亞的難民所引發的。

There has been an increased movement into Europe from Africa, from Asia,

來自非洲或亞洲移入歐洲的移民數 一直以來都在增長，

but slowly growing, and all of a sudden we had this massive increase

但成長得很慢，但突然間，

in the first months of this year.

今年年初的幾個月，移民數量突然增加。

Why? I think there are three reasons,

為什麼？我認為有三個原因，

two long-term ones and the trigger.

兩個是長期因素及一個是觸發點。

The long-term ones, in relation to Syrians,

長期因素與敘利亞人有關，

is that hope is less and less clear for people.

他們越來越看不到希望。

I mean, they look at their own country

我意思是，他們雖然看著自己的國家，

and they don't see much hope to go back home,

但看不到回家的希望，

because there is no political solution,

因為政治上沒有解決方法，

so there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

像看不見隧道的盡頭一樣。

Second, the living conditions

第二，敘利亞難民

of the Syrians in the neighboring countries have been deteriorating.

在鄰近國家的生存條件持續惡化。

We just had research with the World Bank,

我們剛和世界銀行做了研究，

and 87 percent of the Syrians in Jordan

87%住在約旦的敘利亞人

and 93 percent of the Syrians in Lebanon

和97%住坐在黎巴嫩的敘利亞人

live below the national poverty lines.

均生活於全國的貧困線之下。

Only half of the children go to school,

只有一半的兒童能上學，

which means that people are living very badly.

這表示人民生活十分艱辛

Not only are they refugees, out of home,

不僅僅是因為是難民們離鄉背井，

not only have they suffered what they have suffered,

還有一直遭受著的磨難，

but they are living in very, very dramatic conditions.

他們同時還生活在非常 非常困苦的條件中。

And then the trigger was when all of a sudden,

再來就是這個觸發點

international aid decreased.

突然之間國際援助減少了

The World Food Programme was forced, for lack of resources,

由於資源匱乏，世界糧食計劃署被迫

to cut by 30 percent food support to the Syrian refugees.

減少30%對敘利亞難民的食物供給。

They're not allowed to work,

難民不被允許工作，

so they are totally dependent on international support,

所以他們完全依賴國際支援

and they felt, "The world is abandoning us."

他們更覺得：「世界正在遺棄我們」

And that, in my opinion, was the trigger.

我認為這就是觸發點。

All of a sudden, there was a rush,

突然之間，風湧而至，

and people started to move in large numbers

人們開始大批遷移。

and, to be absolutely honest,

說真的，

if I had been in the same situation

如果我也面臨相同的狀況，

and I would have been brave enough to do it,

並且有足夠的勇氣，

I think I would have done the same.

我也會那樣做的。

BG: But I think what surprised many people is it's not only sudden,

BG：不過我認為令人意外的 並不僅僅是事發突然，

but it wasn't supposed to be sudden.

而是事情本不該發生得如此突然。

The war in Syria has been happening for five years.

敘利亞的戰爭已經五年了。

Millions of refugees are in camps and villages and towns around Syria.

上百萬的難民居住在敘利亞 周邊的難民營、村莊及城鎮

You have yourself warned about the situation

您自己也曾提醒過 會有這種狀況，

and about the consequences of a breakdown of Libya, for example,

還有，像是您有提到利比亞政府垮台的結果

and yet Europe looked totally unprepared.

但是歐洲看起來似乎毫無準備。

AG: Well, unprepared because divided,

AG:：毫無準備是因為意見分歧，

and when you are divided, you don't want to recognize the reality.

當你意見分歧又不想面對現實時

You prefer to postpone decisions,

你就會選擇遲一點再決定，

because you do not have the capacity to make them.

因為你沒有能力接納那麼多難民。

And the proof is that even when the spike occurred,

證據是，即使當移民潮發生後，

Europe remained divided

歐洲各國仍然意見分歧，

and was unable to put in place a mechanism to manage the situation.

也未能提出適當的機制來管理局面

You talk about one million people.

你剛剛提到有 100 萬難民，

It looks enormous,

看起來很多，

but the population of the European Union is 550 million people,

但歐盟總人口數是 5.5 億，

which means we are talking about one per every 2,000 Europeans.

即每2000個歐洲人對應1個難民。

Now, in Lebanon, we have one refugee per three Lebanese.

在黎巴嫩，每三個黎巴嫩人 就要應對一個難民。

And Lebanon? Struggling, of course, but it's managing.

而黎巴嫩？很艱辛，當然，但是他們做到了。

So, the question is: is this something that could have been managed

所以問題是：這些是本應可以控制

if -- not mentioning the most important thing,

--暫時先不提最重要而且

which would have been addressing the root causes,

一直被強調的根本原因

but forgetting about root causes for now,

現在也先不要管問題的成因，

looking at the phenomenon as it is --

就只看現象本身--

if Europe were able to come together in solidarity

歐洲是否能團結一致

to create an adequate reception capacity of entry points?

在入境處創造充足的接納能力？

But for that, the countries at entry points need to be massively supported,

但要做到如此， 各國的入境處需要被大量的支援，

and then screening the people with security checks

然後對入境難民進行安檢，

and all the other mechanisms,

並配合其他機制

distributing those that are coming into all European countries,

及根據每個國家的能力

according to the possibilities of each country.

來分配這些湧入歐洲的難民，

I mean, if you look at the relocation program

我的意思是，如果你去看一下 委員會批准的重新安置計劃，

that was approved by the Commission, always too little too late,

總是太少、太遲

or by the Council, too little too late --

或者由市議會批准的 也是太少、太遲

BG: It's already breaking down.

BG：現在已經失敗了

AG: My country is supposed to receive four thousand.

AG：我的國家原本應該接收四千人

Four thousand in Portugal means nothing.

四千人對葡萄牙來說不算什麼。

So this is perfectly manageable if it is managed,

所以說，如果處理得當， 難民都可以得到妥善安置。

but in the present circumstances, the pressure is at the point of entry,

但現在是入境處壓力很大

and then, as people move in this chaotic way through the Balkans,

之後難民毫無秩序地穿過巴爾幹，

then they come to Germany, Sweden, basically, and Austria.

來到德國、瑞典及奧地利，

They are the three countries that are, in the end, receiving the refugees.

只有這三個國家接收難民。

The rest of Europe is looking without doing much.

其它歐洲國家只是冷眼旁觀。

BG: Let me try to bring up three questions,

BG: 讓我再問三個問題，

playing a bit devil's advocate.

扮演一下魔鬼的支持者，

I'll try to ask them, make them blunt.

我會嘗試問問題，讓他們頭昏腦脹，

But I think the questions are very present

但我認為這個問題在 歐洲很多人的心理面

in the minds of many people in Europe right now,

是個相當現實的問題。

The first, of course, is about numbers.

首先，當然是難民的數字

You say 550 million versus one million is not much, but realistically,

你說5.5億比100萬不算多，但現實上

how many people can Europe take?

歐洲可容納多少人？

AG: Well, that is a question that has no answer,

AG：這個問題沒有答案

because refugees have the right to be protected.

因為難民有權被受保護。

And there is such a thing as international law,

國際法中也有這樣的規定，

so there is no way you can say, "I take 10,000 and that's finished."

所以你不能說： 「我只收一萬人，不要再來了」

I remind you of one thing:

我提醒你一件事：

in Turkey, at the beginning of the crisis, I remember one minister saying,

土耳其在危機開始前，記得有位部長說，

"Turkey will be able to receive up to 100,000 people."

“ 土耳其最多只能接納10萬人。”

Turkey has now two million three-hundred thousand

但現在，大約共有230萬難民

or something of the sort, if you count all refugees.

居住在土耳其。

So I don't think it's fair to say how many we can take.

所以我覺得，我認為我們不應該討論 歐洲能接納多少難民，

What it is fair to say is: how we can we organize ourselves

而是應該討論的是： 我們要如何組織自己

to assume our international responsibilities?

來履行我們的國際責任。

And Europe has not been able to do so,

歐洲還不能做到這一點，

because basically, Europe is divided because there is no solidarity

因為基本上，歐洲是分裂的，

in the European project.

並沒有團結起來共同解決歐洲問題。

And it's not only about refugees; there are many other areas.

而且不僅是在難民問題上， 在其他領域也是。

And let's be honest, this is the moment in which we need more Europe

我們說實話，現在這個時刻，

instead of less Europe.

我們需要更多歐洲國家參與，而非更少。

But as the public less and less believes in European institutions,

但因為大家越來越不相信歐盟機構，

it is also each time more difficult to convince the public

所以當要說服人們，我們需要更多歐盟國家來解決問題的時候

that we need more Europe to solve these problems.

就越來越困難。

BG: We seem to be at the point

BG：我們似乎在一個情況下

where the numbers turn into political shifts, particularly domestically.

就是難民數量會引響政策轉移， 特別是國家內政。

We saw it again this weekend in France,

比如這個周末， 我們又再次看到法國頒布的政策，

but we have seen it over and over in many countries:

我們也有看到其他國家也有這種狀況：

in Poland and in Denmark and in Switzerland and elsewhere,

比如波蘭、丹麥、瑞士，等等，

where the mood changes radically because of the numbers,

因為難民的數量而突然轉變，

although they are not very significant in absolute numbers.

雖然他們在絕對數字上 改變並不明顯，

The Prime Minister of --

（某國的）首相……

AG: But, if I may, on these:

AG：請容許我插句話， 我談一下這些事：

I mean, what does a European see at home

我的意思是，在歐洲一個 沒有移民的小村莊里，

in a village where there are no migrants?

人們在家裡能明白甚麼？

What a European sees is, on television,

在幾個月前的每一天，

every single day, a few months ago, opening the news every single day,

打開電視新聞播的，

a crowd coming, uncontrolled,

就是大量人群湧入，不受控制，

moving from border to border,

從這個邊境到那個邊境，

and the images on television were of hundreds

電視畫面裡就是

or thousands of people moving.

成千上百的人湧入歐洲。

And the idea is that nobody is taking care of it --

那狀況就好像沒人在乎這件事一樣--

this is happening without any kind of management.

事情發生了，沒人要管理。

And so their idea was, "They are coming to my village."

所以，他們會有一種想法就是， ＂他們要來我的村莊了。＂

So there was this completely false idea that Europe was being invaded

所以就有了一種完全錯誤的想法： 歐洲要被侵略了，

and our way of life is going to change, and everything will --

而我們的生活將會改變，所有事情都會--

And the problem is that if this had been properly managed,

問題在於，如果一切都能被妥善管理，

if people had been properly received,

如果難民被適當地接收、歡迎

welcomed, sheltered at point of entry, screened at point of entry,

在入境處接受安檢、安置，

and the moved by plane to different European countries,

然後坐飛機送往其他歐洲國家，

this would not have scared people.

這樣就不會讓人們害怕了。

But, unfortunately, we have a lot of people scared,

但，很不幸，我們有很多人都很害怕，

just because Europe was not able to do the job properly.

就是因為歐洲沒適當地處理問題。

BG: But there are villages in Germany

BG：但，德國有一些300人居住的村莊，

with 300 inhabitants and 1,000 refugees.

卻有1000個難民。

So, what's your position?

您對此是怎麼看的？

How do you imagine these people reacting?

您覺得當地居民會作何反應？

AG: If there would be a proper management of the situation

AG：這種狀況如果有適當的管理措施，

and the proper distribution of people all over Europe,

把難民適當地送往歐洲各國，

you would always have the percentage that I mentioned:

你就會有一個我剛剛提到的比例：

one per each 2,000.

1:2000。

It is because things are not properly managed

那是因為沒有適當的管理，

that in the end we have situations

造成我們最後

that are totally impossible to live with, and of course if you have a village --

完全不可能一起生活的情況， 當然，如果你有這樣的村莊--

in Lebanon, there are many villages

在黎巴嫩，有許多這樣的村莊，

that have more Syrians than Lebanese; Lebanon has been living with that.

敘利亞人比黎巴嫩人還要多。 黎巴嫩也適應了這種情形。

I'm not asking for the same to happen in Europe,

我並不是要求歐洲都比照辦理，

for all European villages to have more refugees than inhabitants.

讓所有歐洲的村莊 都接收比當地居民更多的難民。

What I am asking is for Europe to do the job properly,

我是希望歐洲把工作做好，

and to be able to organize itself to receive people

能夠有規劃地接收難民，

as other countries in the world were forced to do in the past.

就像過去世界上其他國家 被強迫做的那樣。

BG: So, if you look at the global situation not only at Europe --

BG:：如果我們看一下全球局勢， 而不僅僅是歐洲……

(Applause)

（掌聲）

BG: Yes!

BG：

(Applause)

（掌聲）

BG: If you look at the global situation, so, not only at Europe,

BG：如果我們看一下全球局勢， 而不僅是歐洲，

I know you can make a long list of countries

我知道你可以列出一長條

that are not really stepping up,

沒有真正站出來的國家清單，

but I'm more interested in the other part --

但我比較有興趣的是另一方，

is there somebody who's doing the right thing?

有沒有哪些國家是做正確的事呢？

AG: Well, 86 percent of the refugees in the world

AG：有的，全世界有86%的難民

are in the developing world.

居住在發展中國家。

And if you look at countries like Ethiopia --

如果你注意看一些國家， 像是衣索比亞--

Ethiopia has received more than 600,000 refugees.

他們已經接收了超過60萬名的難民。

All the borders in Ethiopia are open.

所有衣索比亞的邊境都是開放的

And they have, as a policy,

而他們有一項名為 “ 人民互助 ”的政策

they call the "people to people" policy that every refugee should be received.

說明每一位難民都應該被接納。

And they have South Sudanese,

還有南蘇丹、

they have Sudanese, they have Somalis.

蘇丹、索馬里亞。

They have all the neighbors.

他們接收來自所有鄰近國家的難民，

They have Eritreans.

包括厄立特里亞。

And, in general,

總體來說，

African countries are extremely welcoming of refugees coming,

非洲國家非常歡迎難民的到來，

and I would say that in the Middle East

而我也會這麼說，在中東和亞洲，

and in Asia, we have seen a tendency for borders to be open.

我們也看到了敞開國門的趨勢。

Now we see some problems with the Syrian situation,

現在，我們看到敘利亞還有一些問題，

as the Syrian situation evolved into also a major security crisis,

就是敘利亞也捲入了 嚴重的安全危機。

but the truth is that for a large period,

但事實是有很長一段時間，

all borders in the Middle East were open.

中東各國的邊境都是開放的。

The truth is that for Afghans,

當時巴基斯坦和伊朗的邊境

the borders of Pakistan and Iran were open for, at the time,

開放給600萬阿富汗人

six million Afghans that came.

進入這兩個國家。

So I would say that even today, the trend in the developing world

所以我會說，即使在​​今天，

has been for borders to be open.

在發展中國家的趨勢 是為難民敞開國門。

The trend in the developed world is for these questions to become

但在已開發國家，

more and more complex,

這些問題卻變得越來越複雜，

especially when there is, in the public opinion,

特別是當社會輿論

a mixture of discussions between refugee protections on one side

將庇護難民和國家安全問題 混為一談的時候，

and security questions -- in my opinion, misinterpreted -- on the other side.

在我看來是個錯誤的闡述。

BG: We'll come back to that too,

BG：我們等一下回來 會談到這個問題。

but you mentioned the cutting of funding and the vouchers

您剛剛提到世界糧食計劃署

from the World Food Programme.

物資縮減的情況。

That reflects the general underfunding of the organizations

這反映了這些組織

working on these issues.

普遍都遇到資金短缺的問題。

Now that the world seems to have woken up,

現在全世界看起來已經醒了，

are you getting more funding and more support,

你們是否得到了更多的資助和支援，

or it's still the same?

還是並沒有變化？

AG: We are getting more support.

AG：我們得到了更多的支援。

I would say that we are coming close to the levels of last year.

我會說，我們正接近去年的水平。

We were much worse during the summer.

我們在夏天期間比較糟糕。

But that is clearly insufficient to address the needs of the people

但這些顯然無法解決難民的需求，

and address the needs of the countries

也無法解決

that are supporting the people.

那些支持難民的國家的需求。

And here we have a basic review of the criteria, the objectives,

我們在這裡簡單重新審視一下

the priorities of development cooperation that is required.

一些必要的、有關發展合作的 準則、目標和優先權。

For instance, Lebanon and Jordan are middle-income countries.