why extremism seems to have been on the rise in Muslim-majority countries

為什麼在過去十年歷程在穆斯林佔多數的國家

over the course of the last decade?

極端主義似乎有上升？

Have you ever wondered

你有沒有想過

how such a situation can be turned around?

這樣的情況如何可以翻轉？

Have you ever looked at the Arab uprisings

你有沒有在看阿拉伯起義時

and thought, "How could we have predicted that?"

想著: 「我們怎樣能預測這件事情呢？」

or "How could we have better prepared for that?"

或「我們怎麼能更充分的準備呢？」

Well my personal story, my personal journey,

那麼這是我個人的故事，我個人的旅程，

what brings me to the TED stage here today,

是為什麼我今天在TED這裡，

is a demonstration of exactly what's been happening

準確演示在在過去至少幾十年

in Muslim-majority countries

或甚至更長時間內

over the course of the last decades, at least, and beyond.

穆斯林佔多數的國家發生過什麼。

I want to share some of that story with you,

我想與你分享一些故事，

but also some of my ideas around change

並且也有一些我認為轉變的想法

and the role of social movements in creating change

及社會運動對改變

in Muslim-majority societies.

穆斯林佔多數社會的角色。

So let me begin

如果我可以放任發揮,

by first of all giving a very, very brief history of time,

讓我首先給你的一個

if I may indulge.

非常非常濃縮的歷史簡介。

In medieval societies there were defined allegiances.

在中世紀社會中忠誠是有定義的。

An identity was defined

一個身份的定義

primarily by religion.

主要是來自宗教。

And then we moved on into an era in the 19th century

然後我們就進入在19世紀時代

with the rise of a European nation-state

歐洲民族國家的身份

where identities and allegiances were defined

和忠誠的定義

by ethnicity.

是來自種族。

So identity was primarily defined by ethnicity,

因此，種族主要是界定身份，

and the nation-state reflected that.

而國家民族也反映如同。

In the age of globalization, we moved on.

在全球化時代，我們繼續前行。

I call it the era of citizenship --

我把它稱為公民的時代 --

where people could be from multi-racial, multi-ethnic backgrounds,

人們可以從多種族化，多民族化的背景，

but all be equal as citizens

但都被視為一個國家

in a state.

的平等公民。

You could be American-Italian; you could be American-Irish;

你可能是美國的意大利人，你可能是美國的愛爾蘭人，

you could be British-Pakistani.

你可能是英國巴基斯坦人。

But I believe now

但我相信現在

that we're moving into a new age,

我們正在進入一個新的時代，

and that age The New York Times dubbed recently

而且最近這個時代被紐約時報

as "the age of behavior."

稱為「 行為的時代」。

How I define the age of behavior

我如何定義行為的時代

is a period of transnational allegiances,

是以一個跨國的忠誠準則，

where identity is defined more so

其中身份的標定是指

by ideas and narratives.

思想和敘事。

And these ideas and narratives that bump people across borders

而這些越來越多的理念和敘事

are increasingly beginning to affect

而簸動人們跨越國界開始影響

the way in which people behave.

人們的行為。

Now this is not all necessarily good news,

這並不一定是個好消息，

because it's also my belief

因為我也相信，

that hatred has gone global

仇恨跟愛一樣

just as much as love.

已經全球化。

But actually it's my belief

但實際上我是相信，

that the people who've been truly capitalizing on this age of behavior,

已經真正把握這種行為的人，

up until now, up until recent times,

到現在為止，直到近代，

up until the last six months,

直到最近6個月，

the people who have been capitalizing most

最能利用

on the age of behavior

行為時代的人們

and the transnational allegiances,

和跨國忠誠，

using digital activism

用激進的數據化

and other sorts of borderless technologies,

和其他各種無國界的技術，

those who've been benefiting from this

那些已經從中受益的

have been extremists.

是極端分子。

And that's something which I'd like to elaborate on.

這便是我想闡述的東西。

If we look at Islamists,

如果我們看一下伊斯蘭主義，

if we look at the phenomenon

如果我們看一下

of far-right fascists,

在極右翼法西斯的現象，

one thing they've been very good at,

他們有一點已經很好，

one thing that they've actually been exceeding in,

他們實際上已經超過這一點，

is communicating across borders,

是跨越國界的通信，

using technologies to organize themselves,

採用技術組織起來，

to propagate their message

傳播他們的信息，

and to create truly global phenomena.

並建立真正的全球性現象。

Now I should know,

現在我應該知道，

because for 13 years of my life,

因為我13年的生活，

I was involved in an extreme Islamist organization.

我是在參與一個極端的伊斯蘭組織。

And I was actually a potent force

而實際上我是一個在傳播

in spreading ideas across borders,

跨越國界的想法的強大力量。

and I witnessed the rise of Islamist extremism

我親眼目睹了伊斯蘭極端主義的興起,

as distinct from Islam the faith,

顯明不同於伊斯蘭教的信仰，

and the way in which it influenced my co-religionists

和影響了我在世界各地教友

across the world.

作為的和方式。

And my story, my personal story,

而我的故事，我個人的故事，

is truly evidence for the age of behavior

是真正的行為時代的證據，

that I'm attempting to elaborate upon here.

我試圖在這裡闡述的憑證。

I was, by the way -- I'm an Essex lad,

順帶一提我 -- 我是個埃塞克斯郡的小伙子，

born and raised in Essex in the U.K.

在埃塞克斯郡出生和成長。

Anyone who's from England

任何人如來自英格蘭

knows the reputation we have from Essex.

都知道我們這些來自埃塞克斯郡的聲譽。

But having been born in Essex,

但出生在埃塞克斯郡,

at the age of 16,

16歲，

I joined an organization.

我加入了一個組織。

At the age of 17, I was recruiting people from Cambridge University

在17歲，我從劍橋大學

to this organization.

招募人員加入這個組織。

At the age of 19,

在19歲，

I was on the national leadership of this organization in the U.K.

我已是成為在英國的國家首領。

At the age of 21, I was co-founding this organization in Pakistan.

在21歲，我在巴基斯坦共同創辦了這個組織。

At the age of 22,

在22歲，

I was co-founding this organization in Denmark.

我在丹麥共同創辦了這個組織。

By the age of 24,

到了24歲，

I found myself convicted in prison in Egypt,

我在埃及被定罪進入監獄裡，

being blacklisted from three countries in the world

在世界上三個國家的黑名單

for attempting to overthrow their governments,

被控企圖推翻他們的政府，

being subjected to torture

在埃及監獄

in Egyptian jails

遭受酷刑，

and sentenced to five years as a prisoner of conscience.

並被判處為一個良心犯五年。

Now that journey,

現在那一個旅程，

and what took me from Essex all the way across the world --

什麼把我從埃塞克斯郡帶到跨越世界--

by the way, we were laughing at democratic activists.

順便說一下，我們在嘲諷民主活動家。

We felt they were from the age of yesteryear.

我們認為那些人是從昔日的時代。

We felt that they were out of date.

我們覺得他們是過時的。

I learned how to use email

我從極端組織

from the extremist organization that I used.

學會了如何使用電子郵件。

I learned how to effectively communicate across borders

我學會了如何有效地跨越國界溝通，

without being detected.

而不被發現。

Eventually I was detected, of course, in Egypt.

當然, 最後我被發現，在埃及。

But the way in which I learned

不過,我學會了

to use technology to my advantage

使用技術盡用優勢，

was because I was within an extremist organization

是因為我是在極端主義組織

that was forced to think beyond

被迫去思考超越

the confines of the nation-state.

民族國家的範圍內。

The age of behavior: where ideas and narratives

行為的年代：越來越多地以思想和說明

were increasingly defining behavior

定義行為,

and identity and allegiances.

身份和忠誠。

So as I said, we looked to the status quo

因此，正如我所說的，我們看到現狀，

and ridiculed it.

而嘲笑它。

And it's not just Islamist extremists that did this.

而且不只是伊斯蘭極端分子這樣做的。

But even if you look across

但是，即使你看如今，

the mood music in Europe of late,

在歐洲極右的法西斯主義的

far-right fascism is also on the rise.

音樂情緒也在上升。

A form of anti-Islam rhetoric

反伊斯蘭言論的形式

is also on the rise

也呈上升趨勢，

and it's transnational.

和跨越國界。

And the consequences that this is having

這後果便是

is that it's affecting the political climate

影響了整個歐洲的

across Europe.

政治氣候。

What's actually happening

實際發生的是，

is that what were previously localized parochialisms,

以前本地化的本位主義，

individual or groupings of extremists

個人或彼此孤立的

who were isolated from one another,

極端分子集團，

have become interconnected in a globalized way

已在一個全球化的方式相互關聯，

and have thus become, or are becoming, mainstream.

並因此成為或正在成為主流。

Because the Internet and connection technologies

由於互聯網連接技術，

are connecting them across the world.

連接世界各地。

If you look at the rise of far-right fascism across Europe of late,

如果你看一下現時在整個歐洲崛起的極右法西斯主義，

you will see some things that are happening

你會看到一些事情正在發生，

that are influencing domestic politics,

影響到國內政治，

yet the phenomenon is transnational.

但這種現象是跨越國界。

In certain countries, mosque minarets are being banned.

在某些國家，清真寺的尖塔被禁止。

In others, headscarves are being banned.

在其他國家，頭巾都被禁止。

In others, kosher and halal meat are being banned,

在其他國家，猶太教和

as we speak.

伊斯蘭教的肉正在被禁止。

And on the flip side,

而在另一面，

we have transnational Islamist extremists

我們有跨國伊斯蘭極端分子

doing the same thing across their own societies.

在其自己的社會做同樣的事情。

And so they are pockets of parochialism that are being connected

所以, 本位主義正在連接的方式

in a way that makes them feel like they are mainstream.

使他們覺得他們是主流。

Now that never would have been possible before.

在以前這個永遠不會有可能。

They would have felt isolated,

他們會感到孤立的，

until these sorts of technologies came around

直到這些技術來臨

and connected them in a way

連接了周圍，

that made them feel part of a larger phenomenon.

使他們覺得是一個大現象的一部分。

Where does that leave democracy aspirants?

民主追求者可以去哪裡？

Well I believe they're getting left far behind.

我相信他們遠遠被拋在後面。

And I'll give you an example here at this stage.

我給你舉個現階段的例子。

If any of you remembers the Christmas Day bomb plot:

如果你記得聖誕節炸彈陰謀：

there's a man called Anwar al-Awlaki.

有一個名Anwar Al-Awlaki的人。

As an American citizen, ethnically a Yemeni,

作為一個美國公民，種族也門，

in hiding currently in Yemen,

目前藏匿在也門，

who inspired a Nigerian,

他激發了一個尼日利亞人，

son of the head of Nigeria's national bank.

尼日利亞國家銀行負責人的兒子。

This Nigerian student studied in London, trained in Yemen,

這個尼日利亞學生在倫敦學習，在也門訓練，

boarded a flight in Amsterdam to attack America.

登上了在阿姆斯特丹的航班襲擊美國。

In the meanwhile,

在此同時，

the Old mentality with a capital O,

一個舊思維的思想，

was represented by his father, the head of the Nigerian bank,

他的父親作為代表--尼日利亞銀行的負責人，

warning the CIA that his own son was about to attack,

警告中央情報局自己兒子的攻擊計劃，

and this warning fell on deaf ears.

但警告置若罔聞。

The Old mentality with a capital O,

一個舊思維的思想，

as represented by the nation-state,

民族國家作為代表，

not yet fully into the age of behavior,

尚未完全融入行為的時代，

not recognizing the power of transnational social movements,

不承認跨國社會運動的力量，

got left behind.

舊的思維被落後。

And the Christmas Day bomber almost succeeded

聖誕節轟炸機幾乎成功地

in attacking the United States of America.

攻擊美國。

Again with the example of the far right:

再與最右端的例子：

that we find, ironically,

我們發現，具有諷刺意味的是，

xenophobic nationalists

仇外的民族主義者

are utilizing the benefits of globalization.

正在利用全球化帶來的好處。

So why are they succeeding?

那麼，為什麼他們成功？

And why are democracy aspirants falling behind?

為什麼民主主義落後。

Well we need to understand the power of the social movements who understand this.

我們需要了解明白社會運動的力量的這一點。

And a social movement is comprised, in my view,

社會運動，在我看來，

it's comprised of four main characteristics.

是由四個主要特點組成。

It's comprised of ideas and narratives

它是以思想, 敘事

and symbols and leaders.

象徵和領導組成。

I'll talk you through one example,

讓我討論一個例子，

and that's the example that everyone here will be aware of,

一個這裡的每一個人都知道的例子，

and that's the example of Al-Qaeda.

那例子便是基地組織。

If I asked you to think of the ideas of Al-Qaeda,

如果我問你你認為基地組織的概念是什麼，

that's something that comes to your mind immediately.

立即便有東西來到你的腦內。

If I ask you to think of their narratives --

如果我問你你認為他們的敘述是什麼 --

the West being at war with Islam, the need to defend Islam against the West --

西方在與伊斯蘭教的戰爭，伊斯蘭對西方捍衛的需要 --

these narratives, they come to your mind immediately.

這些敘事，它們立即來到你的腦內。

Incidentally, the difference between ideas and narratives:

順便說一說，概念和敘述之間的差異：

the idea is the cause that one believes in;

概念是令人相信的原因;

and the narrative is the way to sell that cause --

而敘事便是推銷原因的方式 --

the propaganda, if you like, of the cause.

那就是, 政治宣傳原因。

So the ideas and the narratives of Al-Qaeda come to your mind immediately.

因此基地組織的敘述的概念便立即來到你的腦內。

If I ask you to think of their symbols and their leaders,

如果我要你認出他們的象徵和領導人，

they come to your mind immediately.

他們便立即來到你的腦內。

One of their leaders was killed in Pakistan recently.

他們的領導人之一，最近在巴基斯坦被殺害。

So these symbols and these leaders

因此，這些象徵和這些領導人

come to your mind immediately.

立即來到你的腦內。

And that's the power of social movements.

這便是社會運動的力量。

They're transnational, and they bond around these ideas and narratives

它們是跨國的，它們圍繞這些理念,敘事.

and these symbols and these leaders.

這些象徵和這些領導人。

However,

但是，

if I ask your minds to focus currently on Pakistan,

如果我我要你把重點放在目前的巴基斯坦，

and I ask you to think

要你認出

of the symbols and the leaders for democracy

今天在民主巴基斯坦的

in Pakistan today,

象徵和領導人，

you'll be hard pressed

你便會難於啟齒，

to think beyond perhaps

也許僅是想到

the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

貝娜齊爾•布托遇刺。

Which means, by definition,

這意味著，顧名思義，

that particular leader no longer exists.

即是領導者不再存在。

One of the problems we're facing is, in my view,

在我看來, 我們面臨的問題之一是，

that there are no globalized,

沒有全球化

youth-led, grassroots social movements

青年領導，基層民主文化的社會運動

advocating for democratic culture

倡導跨越穆斯林

across Muslim-majority societies.

佔多數的社會。

There is no equivalent of the Al-Qaeda, without the terrorism,

沒有相當於基地組織水平, 但沒有恐怖主義

for democracy across Muslim-majority societies.

的民主集團跨越整個穆斯林佔多數的社會。

There are no ideas and narratives and leaders and symbols

沒有概念,敘事和領導人

advocating the democratic culture on the ground.

在地面上提倡民主文化。

So that begs the next question.

這便引出下一個問題。

Why is it that extremist organizations,

為什麼極端組織，

whether of the far-right or of the Islamist extremism --

這包括那些無論是極右或伊斯蘭極端主義的 --

Islamism meaning those who wish to impose

伊斯蘭教主義是指那些想

one version of Islam over the rest of society --

施加其餘社會對伊斯蘭教一個版本的人--

why is it that they are succeeding

為什麼他們在一個全球化的

in organizing in a globalized way,

舉辦方式可以成功，

whereas those who aspire to democratic culture

而那些渴望民主文化的

are falling behind?

便落後？

And I believe that's for four reasons.

我認為有四個原因。

I believe, number one, it's complacency.

我相信，第一，便是自滿。

Because those who aspire to democratic culture

因為那些渴望期於民主文化的人

are in power,

都擁有權力，

or have societies

或都駐於

that are leading globalized, powerful societies,