This is probably the most boring topic

這大概是整個早上

of the whole morning.

最枯燥乏味的講題

But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic

但是我想告訴你，我認為這是我們必需關心的

that we need to care about.

重要課題

State budgets

州預算

are big, big money --

有非常、非常多錢

I'll show you the numbers --

我等一下會告訴你們有多少錢

and they get very little scrutiny.

而且它們幾乎不受審查

The understanding is very low.

很少人瞭解它

Many of the people involved

大部分提出與審查預算的人

have special interests or short-term interests

只關注特定或短期的利益

that get them not thinking

讓他們不會考慮

about what the implications of the trends are.

長期趨勢所暗示的警訊

And these budgets

而這些預算

are the key for our future;

卻是我們未來的關鍵

they're the key for our kids.

是我們孩子的關鍵

Most education funding --

大多數的教育經費

whether it's K through 12,

無論是幼稚園到小學

or the great universities or community colleges --

還是大學、社區大學

most of the money for those things

這些學校大部分的資金

is coming out of these state budgets.

都來自州預算

But we have a problem.

但是我們有個問題

Here's the overall picture.

這是美國全部的預算圖

U.S. economy is big --

美國的經濟很龐大

14.7 trillion.

（國內生產總值）十四萬七千億美元

Now out of that pie,

在整個大餅之中

the government spends 36 percent.

政府支出佔了百分之三十六

So this is combining the federal level,

其中聯邦預算

which is the largest,

佔得最多

the state level and the local level.

其餘是州預算與地方預算

And it's really in this combined way

如此錯綜複雜

that you get an overall sense of what's going on,

就是你感受到目前的整體狀況

because there's a lot of complex things

因為裡面有太多複雜的項目

like Medicaid and research money

例如健保與研究支出

that flow across those boundaries.

同時在三者之間編列

But we're spending 36 percent.

但是我們確實支出百分之三十六

Well what are we taking in?

好，我們到底付了多少？

Simple business question.

基本的商業問題

Answer is 26 percent.

答案是百分之二十六

Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,

中間有百分之十的赤字

sort of a mind-blowing number.

是個令人震驚的數字

And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact

其中一部分赤字，實際上，是因為

that we've had an economic recession.

我們正處於經濟不景氣

Receipts go down,

收入減少

some spending programs go up,

某些支出計畫增加

but most of it is not because of that.

但這不是大多數赤字的原因

Most of it is because of ways

大多數赤字來自於

that the liabilities are building up

負債一直累積

and the trends,

以及趨勢如此

and that creates a huge challenge.

讓我們面臨巨大的挑戰

In fact, this is the forecast picture.

事實上，這個預測圖

There are various things in here:

裡面有幾個項目

I could say we might raise more revenue,

我可以說，我們可以提高收入

or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.

或讓醫療創新使得支出更為增加

It is an increasingly difficult picture,

讓前景看來日益困難

even assuming the economy does quite well --

即使假設經濟景氣不錯

probably better than it will do.

比預期得更好

This is what you see

這是你會看到的

at this overall level.

全體數字

Now how did we get here?

我們怎麼會變成這樣？

How could you have a problem like this?

怎麼會有這種麻煩？

After all, at least on paper,

總之，至少在帳面上

there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.

有這種概念說這些州預算經過平衡

Only one state says

只有一個州說

they don't have to balance the budget.

他們不必平衡預算

But what this means actually

這實際上表示

is that there's a pretense.

平衡預算都只是藉口

There's no real, true balancing going on,

他們根本沒有達成真正的平衡

and in a sense, the games they play to hide that

以某方面來說，他們在玩的把戲是隱藏赤字

actually obscure the topic so much

實際上更加模糊了問題所在

that people don't see things

讓別人無法發覺

that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.

這就是目前非常直接的挑戰

When Jerry Brown was elected,

當傑利．布朗選上（加州州長）

this was the challenge that was put to him.

這就是他要面對的挑戰

That is, through various gimmicks and things,

那就是藉由種種的花招與方法

a so-called balanced budget

所謂的平衡預算

had led him to have 25 billion missing

讓加州提出的七百六十億預算支出

out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.

消失了二百五十億

Now he's put together some thoughts:

他總結下來有幾個想法：

About half of that he'll cut,

他會砍掉其中一半

another half,

另一半

perhaps in a very complex set of steps,

也許藉由十分複雜的手段

taxes will be approved.

以加稅的方法補足

But even so,

即使如此

as you go out into those future years,

當你面對未來幾年

various pension costs, health costs go up enough,

各種退休金支出、醫療支出持續增加

and the revenue does not go up enough.

但是收入卻沒有追上支出

So you get a big squeeze.

你就必須大幅壓縮預算

What were those things that allowed us to hide this?

為什麼我們可以隱藏這些問題？

Well, some really nice little tricks.

好，有一些十分巧妙的技倆

And these were somewhat noticed.

這些是讓人稍微注意到的

The paper said, "It's not really balanced.

報紙上寫著「並非全部平衡」

It's got holes.

「有財務漏洞」

It perpetuates deficit spending.

「延續赤字支出」

It's riddled with gimmicks."

「充滿了花招」

And really when you get down to it,

當你真正深入調查的時候

the guys at Enron never would have done this.

會發現安隆的傢伙從來沒作過這種蠢事

This is so blatant,

（各州政府）實在明目張膽

so extreme.

實在罪大惡極

Is anyone paying attention

難道沒有人注意到

to some of the things these guys do?

這些傢伙所作的事情？

They borrow money.

他們借錢

They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.

他們不該借錢，但是他們找到了方法

They make you pay more in withholding

他們強迫你繳交更多的預扣稅金

just to help their cash flow out.

只是為了讓他們有現金可用

They sell off the assets.

他們出售資產

They defer the payments.

他們拒絕付錢

They sell off the revenues from tobacco.

他們販賣來自香菸的收益

And California's not unique.

加州不是特例

In fact, there's about five states that are worse

事實上，大概有五個州的狀況更惡劣

and only really four states

只有四個州

that don't face this big challenge.

不必面對這麼大的挑戰

So it's systemic across the entire country.

所以這是充斥整個美國的現象

It really comes from the fact

它來自於這個事實

that certain long-term obligations --

相當多的長期債務——

health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,

科技創新讓健保日益昂貴

early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,

提早退休與退休金，人口老化讓問題更加嚴重

and just generosity --

正因為寬容——

that these mis-accounting things

讓這些不正當的會計手段

allow to develop over time,

長期持續下去

that you've got a problem.

讓你面對棘手的問題

This is the retiree health care benefits.

這是退休人員健保的利益

Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --

三百萬人，六百二十億美元的債務

much worse than the car companies.

比汽車公司還糟糕

And everybody looked at that

每個看到的人

and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.

都知道這會如同滾雪球一般變成巨大的問題

The forecast for the medical piece alone

光看醫療方面的預測

is to go from 26 percent of the budget

將會從百分之二十六的預算

to 42 percent.

增加到百分之四十二

Well what's going to give?

誰來付錢？

Well in order to accommodate that,

為了應付這些債務

you would have to cut education spending in half.

你必須削減一半的教育支出

It really is this young versus the old

以某種程度來說

to some degree.

這真的是年輕人與老人的戰爭

If you don't change that revenue picture,

如果你的收入不變

if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,

如果你無法改變健保

you're going to be deinvesting in the young.

你就會剝奪年輕人

The great University of California university system,

加州的大學系統

the great things that have gone on,

一直是優良學校

won't happen.

以後不會再持續下去

So far it's meant layoffs,

目前是裁減師資

increased class sizes.

增加每班學生人數

Within the education community there's this discussion of,

在教育圈子裡面討論的是：

"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,

「我們應該裁掉年輕的老師

or the less good teachers who get laid off?"

還是表現較差的老師？」

And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,

裡面也有討論：「如果增加班級人數

where do you do that? How much effect does that have?

要增加在哪裡？會有什麼影響？」

And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,

不幸的是，當你掉進陷阱，就會困惑然後想：

well maybe you think that's okay.

「好吧，我想我可以接受」

In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.

實際上，不可以，絕對不能削減教育支出

There's ways, if it's temporary,

有些方法，如果只是暫時的

to minimize the impact,

可以降低影響

but it's a problem.

但是它確實是個大問題

It's also really a problem for where we need to go.

它也是掌握我們未來方向的問題

Technology has a role to play.

科技在其中扮演重要的角色

Well we need money to experiment with that,

我們需要資金實驗

to get those tools in there.

以研發可用的教育工具

There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,

有人想依據教師教學的成效給薪

measuring them, giving them feedback,

量化教學成效、給予教師回饋

taking videos in the classroom.

在教室拍攝影片

That's something I think is very, very important.

我覺得這些事情非常、非常重要

Well you have to allocate dollars

你必須花錢

for that system

購買這種系統

and for that incentive pay.

才能給付獎勵性的薪水

In a situation where you have growth,

經濟成長的狀況下

you put the new money into this.

你可以把多的收入花費在這裡

Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.

即使你經濟持平，你也可以挪一些錢過去

But with the type of cuts we're talking about,

但現在是我們之前所講的惡劣情況

it will be far, far harder

就會變得非常、非常困難

to get these incentives for excellence,

難以撥出這些獎勵金給優秀教師

or to move over

或是難以改變方式

to use technology in the new way.

運用科技提昇教育

So what's going on?

所以現在到底是什麼狀況？

Where's the brain trust

智囊團在哪裡

that's in error here?

哪裡就會出錯

Well there really is no brain trust.

好吧，根本沒有智囊團

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.

這算是投票者的義務，也算是我們該挺身而出的時候

Just look at this spending.

看看這些支出

California will spend over 100 billion,

加州支出超過一千億美元

Microsoft, 38,

微軟，三百八十億

Google, about 19.

Google，大約一百九十億

The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,

這些是 Google 與微軟裡面

both inside Google and Microsoft

擅長數學分析的智商總和

and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --

出了這兩家公司，有一堆分析師與各式各樣意見的人——

should they have spent on that?

他們該花那筆錢嗎？

No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --

不，他們在浪費錢。這個如何？——

it really is quite phenomenal.

這真是了不起

Everybody has an opinion.

每個人都有意見

There's great feedback.

有大量的回饋意見

And the numbers are used to make decisions.

意見的數量用來作出決策

If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --

如果你查看教育支出與健保支出——

particularly these long-term trends --

尤其是長期趨勢——

you don't have that type of involvement

你不需要瞭解這些數字

on a number that's more important

就知道公平與學習

in terms of equity, in terms of learning.

才是最重要的事

So what do we need to do?

所以我們需要作什麼？

We need better tools.

我們需要更好的工具（提醒大眾）

We can get some things out on the Internet.

我們可以靠網際網路作到一些

I'm going to use my website

我會運用我的網站

to put up some things that will give the basic picture.

發布一些資料，讓人瞭解一些基本概念

We need lots more.

我們還需要更多

There's a few good books,

有幾本好書

one about school spending and where the money comes from --

有一本關於學校支出與財源——

how that's changed over time, and the challenge.

收支如何隨時間變化，以及面臨的挑戰

We need better accounting.

我們需要更好的會計方法

We need to take the fact

我們需要承認事實

that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,

現在的員工，他們製造未來的債務

that should come out of the current budget.

都是從現在的預算中支付

We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting

我們需要瞭解為什麼他們對退休金的會計數字

the way they have.

作了這些手腳

It should be more like private accounting.

政府會計應該要如同私人會計

It's the gold standard.

有著嚴格的標準

And finally, we need to really reward politicians.

最後，我們需要以實際行動獎勵政治家

Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,

當他們說有長期的問題存在

we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?

我們不能回答：「喔，所以你只是個烏鴉嘴？

We just shot you."

去死吧」

In fact, there are some like these:

事實上，有些人就是那樣子

Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,

厄斯金．包爾、艾藍、辛普森與其他人

who have gone through and given proposals

他們進行調查並提出方案

for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.

處理全聯邦普遍存在健保支出於州層級問題

But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.

但是實際上，他們的方案被延後

In fact, the week afterwards,

事實上，方案提出之後幾個星期

some tax cuts were done

通過了一些減稅法案

that made the situation even worse

導致情況比他們預想的

than their assumptions.

更加惡化

So we need these pieces.

所以我們需要之前提過的東西

Now I think this is a solvable problem.

目前我認為這是可以解決的問題

It's a great country with lots of people.

美國是人口眾多的大國

But we have to draw those people in,

但是我們必須同心協力

because this is about education.

因為這是有關教育的問題

And just look at what happened with the tuitions

只要看看加州大學

with the University of California

學費的問題

and project that out for another three, four, five years --

向外推測三、四、五年之後上漲的學費

it's unaffordable.

年輕人將會讀不起大學

And that's the kind of thing --

教育是一種——

the investment in the young --

對於年輕人的投資——

that makes us great, allows us to contribute.

使我們（美國人）偉大、讓我們貢獻心力

It allows us to do the art,

它讓我們成就藝術

the biotechnology, the software

發展生物科技、研發軟體

and all those magic things.

作出許多神奇的事物

And so the bottom line is

所以重點是

we need to care about state budgets

我們必須關心州預算

because they're critical for our kids and our future.

因為它是我們孩子與我們未來的關鍵

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

（掌聲）